Voting For Congress

Learning Objectives

• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.

FINISHING UP ON DOWNS

The System Matters

• Single Member Districts =1 Party

• Two Round Systems= multiple parties with ideological coalitions

• PR and Multi-Member Districts- multiple parties

NEW PARTIES

Getting New Parties

• Existing parties cant jump over each other

• New Parties come from– Between the gap– On the fringe

What New parties Want to Do

Win elections Threaten Existing Parties

How can Third Parties Win?

A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!

Splitting the Vote

Ambiguity

• You can try to accomplish everything• It increases your appeal• It makes it harder for the voter to be rational!

Why?

VOTING FOR CONGRESSHow Do We Vote For Congress

Goals of Congressperson

• The Primary Goal is to Get Elected

• The Next goal is to get re-elected(Mayhew, 1974)

Voting For Congress

We have seen this before

PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT

Lower turnout in Congressional Elections

• Lower Excitement

• Lower Salience

• Lower Information

Partisanship is Most Important

• The biggest factor in Congressional election

• Even in open seat elections

Safe Seats

• Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering

• Majority Minority Districts

Residential Self Selection

INCUMBENCYMajor Factor 2

Incumbency

• Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places

• A resource that provides many benefits

Incumbent Benefit - Money

• Attract Money at Higher Rates

• The War Chest

Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition

• We Vote For Who We Know

• What Incumbents Can Do

Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers

• Run against Losers

• Scare off Good Challengers

Lose<Not Run<Win

Incumbency

• The incumbent dominates the discourse

• The incumbent has the advantages

• It is the Incumbent’s to lose

Voluntary Retirements

• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.

• Why people Retire?

HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE

Stop Playing the Game

• Get too Old

• Become inattentive

• Scandal

Strategic Challengers can Alter This

• They run when national trends favor their party

• They have local advantages as well

• They also have the most to lose!

How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns

• Attract Money

• Can turn National Issues into Local Ones

• Are Quality Challengers as Well

What is a Quality Challenger

• A person who has formerly/currently held elective office

• Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE

House Incumbency in 2008

Senate Incumbency

House vs Senate Incumbents

• Why are Senators more vulnerable?