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WORLD SC I ENT I F IC SER I ES ON AS IA -PAC I F IC WEATHER AND CL IMATE

Vol. 5

This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and

forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the

World Meteorological Organization’s Fourth International Workshop on

Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to

early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts

of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon

system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are

present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major

monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal,

interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated

comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability,

and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.

The Global Monsoon System

World Scientific World ScientificISBN-13 978-981-4343-40-4ISBN-10 981-4343-40-4

The Global Monsoon SystemResearch and Forecast

2nd Edition

edited by Chih-Pei Chang • Yihui Ding Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau • Richard H Johnson Bin Wang • Tetsuzo Yasunari

The Global Monsoon SystemResearch and Forecast

2nd Edition

Chang • D

ing Lau • Johnson W

ang • Yasunari

The Global Monsoon SystemResearch and Forecast

2nd Edition

N E W J E R S E Y • L O N D O N • S I N G A P O R E • B E I J I N G • S H A N G H A I • H O N G K O N G • TA I P E I • C H E N N A I

World Scientific

WORLD SC I ENT I F IC SER I ES ON AS IA -PAC I F IC WEATHER AND CL IMATE

Vol. 5

The Global Monsoon SystemResearch and Forecast

2nd Edition

edited by

Chih-Pei Chang U.S. Naval Postgraduate School & National Taiwan University

Yihui DingBeijing Climate Center

Gabriel Ngar-Cheung LauNOAA/GFDL & Princeton University

Richard H JohnsonColorado State University

Bin Wang University of Hawaii

Tetsuzo YasunariNagoya University

FOREWORD

Although monsoons are most prominent over Asia, where they tend to determine weatherand climate over vast areas, monsoon winds and rainfall variations are also observed in otherregions, to the point that they influence the lives of nearly three-quarters of the world population.

Accordingly, monsoon research has traditionally held a very high priority for the weatherand climate international scientific communities, including the National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO's 189 Members, since this systematic studycontributes to enhance their operational capabilit ies in high-impact weather forecasting, inparticular for floods and droughts, thereby supporting the provision of early warnings for theprotection of lives and property, a capability which has considerably expanded in recent timesthanks to the increasingly accurate forecasts and longer lead times which can todaybe achieved.

At the kind invitation of People's Republic of China, the Fourth WMO InternationalWorkshop on Monsoons (lWM-lV) was held successfully in Beijing from 20 to 25 October 2008,The workshop, which covered all major monsoon regions and scales, was organized by WMOthrough its World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) with the strong support of the WorldClimate Research Programme (WCRP), which WMO co-sponsors with the IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission (lOC) of UNESCO and the International Council forScience (ICSU).

On behalf of WMO, lwould like to express our appreciation to the International OrganizingCommittee, chaired by Professor Chih-Pei CHANG, which developed the workshop programmeand brought together many distinguished monsoon researchers and operational experts,thereby providing a key forum for discussions. WMO's gratitude is also extended to the ChinaMeteorological Administration (CMA), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC),the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the LocalOrganizing Committee, the session chairpersons and to all authors, reviewers and editors, fortheir key efforts.

The present publication, which is also an update of the 2005 WMO edition of "The GlobalMonsoon System. Research and Forecasf", has been the result of the active discussions duringIWM-IV and the subsequent peer reviewing process. lt provides a comprehensive review of thecurrent status of knowledge in global monsoon meteorology, including the modeling capabilit iesand future research directions. I am confident that it will significantly contribute to futureadvances in monsoon research applications, through the exchange of innovative ideas andnovel results among all monsoon scientists, forecasters and prediction end-users.

(M. Jarraud)Secretary-General

World Meteorological Organization

PREFACE

In 2004 a team of experts was invited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to the Third International Workshop for Monsoons (IWM-III) to present reviews of the current research and forecast issues of monsoon weather. The reviews were the basis of the first edition of this book, which was published by WMO as Technical Document No. 1266 in 2005. This second book is a new effort based largely on the invited reviews presented at the IWM-IV in late 2008 with subsequent manuscripts revised and accepted in the 2009 to early 2010 timeframe. This book is organized in seven parts.

The first part provides an introduction to the title of the book, underscoring the concept that monsoon circulations in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system. For most of the 20th century, the term “monsoon” was nearly synonymous to the Indian or South Asian monsoon. In the last several decades it became clear that the monsoon is a much larger and complex system that affects weather and climate over broader parts of tropical and subtropical Asia as well as other continents including Australia, Africa, South and North America, and the western North Pacific. Within Asia, the East Asian monsoon has distinct characteristics and dominates the weather and climate over a large longitudinal and latitudinal span from tropical Southeast Asia to midlatitude Northeast Asia. While the Asian monsoon with its South and East Asia components is considerably stronger and influences a far larger area and population than the monsoon in other parts of the world, all monsoon regions share the common feature of a thermally driven, seasonal-reversing circulation with a well-defined period of abundant rainfall in the annual cycle.

The second part of the book discusses regional monsoons that are components of the global monsoon system, and emphasizes that significant region-specific characteristics are present in all monsoon regions. These characteristics are important both for the correct description, analysis, understanding, and modeling of the regional monsoon and for operational weather forecasting and applications.

It is now accepted that monsoon research and forecasting involves topics far beyond the traditional thinking that study of monsoon is a study of the seasonal aspects of the annual cycle in the monsoon regions, or the research and forecast issues involve mainly seasonal and interannual (e.g., El Niño and La Niña) climate variations. In fact, the greatest impacts and disasters of the monsoon occur in extreme events that are regulated by mesoscale and synoptic weather activities (or the lack of them), most of which are heavy rainfall systems, including tropical cyclones in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean whose behavior are strongly coupled with the monsoon. Meanwhile, the importance of intraseasonal variability in terms of organization of convection, initiation of weather systems, and the potential of higher predictability is becoming one of the most important directions for tropical meteorology in general and monsoon study in particular. These topics are discussed in Parts 3 and 4,

respectively. To enable major advances in understanding and forecasting of the monsoon systems,

research must be undertaken by a broader scientific community consisting of not only traditional meteorologists and climatologists, but also numerical modelers, oceanographers, as well as experts in land processes, water and energy cycles, aerosols, and global change, etc. Since the models used in monsoon research are basically the same ones used for a spectrum of modeling studies and predictions ranging from mesoscale to global climate, the research in these areas and improved communication between the observational and the modeling communities will lead to improved model physics that will benefit all. Parts 5, 6, and 7 address these topics.

We wish to thank all the authors and reviewers whose contributions have been critical in the preparation of this book, and the World Meteorological Organization for sponsoring IWM-IV that led to the materials for this book. The production of the book was greatly facilitated by the capable technical editing by Hway-Jen Chen and Amanda Liu of the Naval Postgraduate School.

Chih-Pei Chang

Monterey, California

October 2010

ix

CONTENTS

Foreword ................................................................................................................................ v

Preface .................................................................................................................................. vii

I. GLOBAL MONSOON

1. Concept of Global Monsoon ............................................................................................. 3 Bin WANG, Qinghua DING, and Jian LIU

2. Heaviest Precipitation Events, 1998-2007: A Near-Global Survey ................................ 15 Brian MAPES

II. REGIONAL MONSOONS

3. Interannual Variation of the South Asian Monsoon: Links with ENSO and EQUINOO ................................................................................. 25

Sulochana GADGIL, Madhavan N. RAJEEVAN, Lareef ZUBAIR, and Priyanka YADAV

4. Summer Monsoons in East Asia, Indochina and the Western North Pacific ................. 43 Tianjun ZHOU, Huang-Hsiung HSU, and Jun MATSUMOTO

5. Seasonal Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ..................................... 73 Harry H. HENDON, Eunpa LIM, and Matthew C. WHEELER

6. The Maritime Continent Monsoon ................................................................................. 85 Andrew ROBERTSON, Vincent MORON, Jian-Hua QIAN, Chih-Pei CHANG, Fredolin TANGANG, Edvin ALDRIAN, Tieh Yong KOH, and Liew JUNENG

7. The East Asian Winter Monsoon ............................................................................... 9999 Chih-Pei CHANG, Mong-Ming LU, and Bin WANG

8. The West African Monsoon ......................................................................................... 111 Serge JANICOT, Jean-Philippe LAFORE, and Chris THORNCROFT

x

9. The South American Monsoon System ........................................................................ 137 Brant LIEBMANN and Carlos R. MECHOSO

10. Contributions from the North American Monsoon Experiment towards Improved Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather and Climate Events ............ 159

David J. GOCHIS and Ernesto H. BERBERRY

III. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE WEATHER

11. Synoptic and Meso-Scale Weather Disturbances over South Asia during the Southwest Summer Monsoon Season .................................................................... 183

Dev R. SIKKA

12. The Meiyu Weather System in East Asia: Build-Up, Maintenance and Structures .............................................................................................................. 205

Yihui DING, Yunyun LIU, Li ZHANG, Junjie LIU, Liang ZHAO, and Yafang SONG

13. Mesoscale Aspects of the Australian Monsoon ........................................................... 223 Peter MAY

14. Synoptic and Mesoscale Processes in the South American Monsoon ......................... 239 Alice M. GRIMM and Maria Assunção F. SILVA DIAS

15. Diurnal Cycle of Monsoon Convection ...................................................................... 257 Richard JOHNSON

16. Some Aspects of Precipitation Relating to Topography ............................................. 277 Seung-Hee KIM and Robert G. FOVELL

17. Field Experiments on Meiyu/Baiu Frontal Precipitation Systems and Heavy Rainfalls over Yangtze River, East China Sea and Kyushu, Japan ............................ 289

Hiroshi UYEDA

18. An Overview of SoWMEX/TiMREX .......................................................................... 303 Ben Jong-Dao JOU, Wen-Chau LEE, and Richard H. JOHNSON

19. The Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall at the Southwestern Ocean Area of Korea: A Study of the 2007 Season ............................................................... 319

Dong-In LEE, Sang-Min JANG, Cheol-Hwan YOU, Min JANG, Kil-Jong SEO, Dong-Soon KIM, Mi-Young KANG, Hiroshi UYEDA, Masayuki MAKI, and Ben Jong-Dao JOU

xi

20. Heavy Rainfall over the Baiu Frontal Zone around Japan - Relation with Cloud-Top Heights of Cumulonimbi .......................................................................... 339

Teruyuki KATO

21. Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Monsoon Circulations ...................................... 357 Patrick A. HARR and Chun-Chieh WU

22. Airborne Radar Observations of Heavy Precipitation Systems ................................... 373 Wen-Chau LEE and Ching- Hwang LIU

IV. INTRASEASONAL PREDICTION

23. Intraseasonal Variability and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research ................. 389 B. N. GOSWAMI, Matthew C. WHEELER, Jon C. GOTTSCHALCK, and Duane E. WALISER

24. Intraseasonal Prediction and Predictability for Boreal Winter .................................... 409 In-Sik KANG and Hye-Mi KIM

V. NUMERICAL MODELING

25. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour ................................................................................................. 421

Andrew TURNER, Kenneth R. SPERBER, Julia SLINGO, Gerald MEEHL, Carlos R. MECHOSO, Masahide KIMOTO, and Alessandra GIANNINI

26. Cloud-Cluster-Resolving Global Atmosphere Modeling – A Challenge for the New Age of Tropical Meteorology ........................................................................ 455

Taroh MATSUNO, Masaki SATOH, Hirofumi TOMITA, Tomoe NASUNO, Hinichi IGA, Akira T. NODA, Kazuyoshi OOUCHI, Tomonori SATO, Wataru YANASE, Hiroaki MIURA, and Hironori FUDEYASU

27. Improving Multimodel Forecasts of Monsoon Rainfall over China Using the FSU Superensemble ............................................................................................... 475

Tiruvalam N. KRISHNAMURTI and Akhilesh K. MISHIRA

28. Simulation of Synoptic and Sub-synoptic Scale Phenomena Associated with the East Asian Monsoon Using a High-Resolution GCM .................................. 493

Ngar-Cheung LAU

xii

VI. OCEAN AND AIR-SEA INTERACTION

29. Why Climate Modelers Should Worry About Atmospheric and Oceanic Weather .................................................................................................. 511

Ben KIRTMAN and Gabriel A. VECCHI

30. Oceanic Processes Influencing the SST in Regions Related to the Asian-Australian Monsoon System ...................................................................... 525

Bo QIU and Yukio MASUMOTO

VII. LAND AND AEROSOL PROCESSES, CLIMATE CHANGE

31. Review of Recent Observational and Dynamical Studies on the Climate Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau .................................................................................... 537

Guoxiong WU, Toshio KOIKE, Yimin LIU, and Kenji TANIGUCHI

32. Impacts of Climate Change on Asian Monsoon Characteristics ................................. 557 Akio KITOH

33. Effects of Dust and Black Carbon on Variability of the South Asian Monsoon ......... 569 William K. M. LAU and Kyu-Myong KIM

34. Role of Vegetation in the Monsoon Climate System .................................................. 583 Tetsuzo YASUNARI