venturefest 2011 green breakfast with peter head
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Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA | June 2011
Consultant Arup
Chairman Institute for Sustainability
Helping communities in Oxford to be more resilient and successful in recovering from the recession.
Total Community Retrofit
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www.arup.com (ecological age)
• Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?
• What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries?
• How might might we enable communities to transitionin a resilient way to the Ecological Age?
‘Green Growth’
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4 New York City
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Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities. Environmental Science & Technology. 43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005 although some cities had different years)
Oxford compares very badly with other global cities for overall GHG emissions
Oxford 2004
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Our Shrinking Earth
19007.91
19505.15
19872.60
20052.02
20301.69
20501.44
Year
Hectares of land per capita
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United States of America
Bra
zil
Oxfordshire United Kingdom
EU
Swaz
iland
Norway
World
FranceRussia
There are only 12 countries in the world with higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire
Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI
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Source: Stockholm Environment Institute
Ecological Footprint
(gha/capita)
Carbon Footprint (tonnes
CO2 /capita)
GHG Footprint (tonnes
CO2 eq/capita)
South Oxfordshire 6.12 13.93 18.78
West Oxfordshire 5.86 13.36 18.02
Vale of White Horse 5.80 13.20 17.84
South East 5.63 12.76 17.28
Cherwell 5.62 12.75 17.26
UK 5.30 12.08 16.34
Oxford 5.04 11.40 15.44
Most of Oxfordshire’s districts have poor environmental footprints
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute
Best
Worst
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HDI Increase Human Development Index
1.44GHA/Capita Ecological Footprint(CO2 – 50%) + +
= 2050 Ecological Age
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THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GT OF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM
BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE• 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture)
• 5 Gt for Energy Effiency
• 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply
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Middle to High Income Countries
• Transition from industrial to ecological age
• City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-rural resource flows
• Model – London Climate Change Action Plan, Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo
Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by 2050
£10k to 20k per householdThe Future is Local by SDC www.sd-
commission.org.uk
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Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource
10 Principles ofBiomimicry
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Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource
10 Principles ofBiomimicry
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Community Leaders-Making a Good Society
Now 45 people!www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaderswww.futuresforcivilsociety.org
And role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org
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Theory - Cultural Planning
Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development
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Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource
10 Principles ofBiomimicry
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18 Resource Efficiency
Food Raw Materials
Energy Water
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Energy Consumption
IMF, BP
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Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007
Average annual domestic electricity sales per consumer
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
GreatBritain
South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire
Vale ofWhiteHorse
WestOxfordshire
Region
kWh 2005
20062007
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users
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The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell.
Average annual domestic gas sales per consumer
15,50016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00018,50019,00019,50020,00020,500
GreatBritain
South East Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire
Vale ofWhiteHorse
WestOxfordshire
Region
kWh
200520062007
Oxfordshire residents are above-average domestic gas and electricity users
Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
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5%
Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial industrial sector
• More efficient supply of heat/electricity
• Improvements to physical infrastructure
• Behavioural change (switching off lights etc)
• More energy efficient new builds
50%
Contribution to overall reduction
20%
25%
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23 Balancing local and national energy supply networks
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24 Supergrid Vision TREC
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Transport & Urban Density
Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3.
Compact City: Low rise and high density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45 average plot ration/75 dwelling per hectares 80,000 people
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Press Office City of Munster, Germany
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Decreasing Food Supply
Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States
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Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City
Business-as-Usual: Agricultural Food Production Dislocation from the City
Rural-urban separation
Access to sustainable practices
Upskilling through training Access to information networks Access to modern agricultural equipment
New urban-rural linkages
Eco-City Configuration: Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage
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Farming in the City
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Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource
10 Principles ofBiomimicry
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Materials and WasteDrivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)
‘Cradle to cradle’ TM
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33 33
43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled
Percentage household waste recycled
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
England Countiesaverage**
Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire
Vale ofWhite Horse
WestOxfordshire
Region
Perc
enta
ge re
cycl
ed
2003/042004/052005/062006/072007/082008/09
… recycling is increasing
Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils
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34 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)
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Diversify and cooperateUse waste as resourceGather and use energy efficientlyOptimise not maximiseUse materials sparinglyClean up not polluteDo not draw down resourcesRemain in balance with the biosphereRun on informationUse local resource
10 Principles ofBiomimicry
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BIMIRM
3D – 4D – 5DVirtual RealityCollaboration
…
ITSRFID
BroadbandWiMAXCCTVANPR
ParkingBMS
…
Control RoomsSpecifications
D&B contractsRIBA
…
Urban Information Architecture
Tools Form and Infrastructure Management
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Integrated multidisciplinary planning for delivering better performance outcomes in cities through retrofitting:
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Integrated Resource Management
Master PlanE
nerg
y
Tran
spor
t
Food
Pro
duct
ion
Eco
nom
ics
Oth
ers
Was
te M
anag
emen
t
Logi
stic
s
Was
tew
ater
Wat
er s
uppl
yLinking the overarching masterplan to the technical disciplines
Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements
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40 The System of City Life
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GIS
IRM Link
IRM
Tech. Plan
Strate- gies
Arup’s IRM Platform
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Framework - Refined Plan
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“Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, by
forging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes regionally, nationally and internationally”
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44The Total Community Retrofit Model
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45Total Community Retrofit: The Approach
Phase 1 – ModelDevelopment•
Best practice review
•
Stakeholder buy‐in
•
Early phase funding
•
Priority workstreams
i. Financial/Business
Model
ii. Community ownership
and value
•
Select priority locations
12 mths
Phase 2 – Createlocal client•
Local steering group
•
Initial local opportunity
analysis
•
Collaboration agreement
•
Cultural audit
•
Establish community
structures
•
P/P/C client created
6 mths
Phase 3 –
Delivery Planning•
Conduct detailed local
opportunity analysis
•
Create delivery body
•
Prioritise
projects and
delivery approaches
•
Consolidate existing
funding streams
•
Secure delivery funding
18 mths
Phase 4 ‐
Delivery•
Launch specific retrofit,
infrastructure and
community projects
•
Develop local supply
chains, develop skills,
support job creation
•
Assess progress
through monitoring,
measuring and
evaluation
10‐15 yrs
Lifecycle –
validation, replication•
Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback
•
Develop knowledge transfer networks
•
Develop “replication toolkits”
•
Conduct dissemination outreach
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‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’
Thank you