Sumit Sharma, Sumit Kumar Gautam TERI

VEHICULAR EMISSIONS & AIR QUALITY IN INDIA

OUTLINE

•  Air pollution in India •  Share of transport sector •  Regional scale view of air pollution in India •  Impacts of air pollution •  Effects of introduction of advanced vehicular emission norms and

improved fuel quality •  Way forward

AIR POLLUTION IN INDIA

NAAQS Pollutant

Time Weighted Average

Concentration in Ambient air (Industrial, Residential, Rural and other Area )

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), µg/m3

24 hours* Annual average

80 50

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), µg/m3

24 hours** Annual average

80 40

Particulate matter (size less than 10µm) or PM10, µg/m3

24 hours Annual average

100 60

Carbon Monoxide (CO), mg/m3

8 hourly 1 Hourly

2 4

Ozone (O3), µg/m3

8 hourly 1 Hourly

100 180

Particulate matter (size less than 10µm) or PM25, µg/m3

24 hours Annual average

60 40

RSPM CONCENTRATION (2009)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

RSP

M C

once

ntra

tion

(µg/

m³)

More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

(µg/

m³)

• Close to the standards at many places • Highest at Howrah, Kolkata, Delhi

NO2 CONCENTRATIONS(2009)

CORRELATION: VEHICLES AND NOX (2007)

Delhi

BangaloreMumbai

Hyderabad

BhopalVaranasi

Surat

KanpurVadodara

Nagpur

Ahmedabad

R2 = 0.73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000

Total Vehicles

NOx

conc

entra

tion

(µg/

m³)

TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDIA

PHENOMENAL GROWTH OF PRIVATE VEHICLES

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

195119561961196619711976198119861991199620012006

No. (

'000

)

Total 2w Cars

• A developing country phenomena

• Growth in income

• Mobility demands

• Lack of efficient public transport system

• Competitive market

• 27 k two wheelers in 1951 to 26 lakhs in 1981 to 9.1 crores in 2010 • 1.5 lakh cars in 1951 to 11.6 lakh in 1981 to 1.4 crore in 2010

CONGESTION

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Delhi

Mumbai

Varana

si

Bangalo

re

Kolkata

Hyderab

ad

Chennai

Bhuban

eshwar

Guwahati

Kanpur

Surat

Raipur

NagpurJa

ipur

Ahmed

abad

Hubli

Triven

drumPatn

a

Gangtok

Pondich

erry

Con

gest

ion

inde

x051015202530

2007 2011 2021 2031A

vera

ge s

peed

(km

/h)

Cat-1 Cat-2 Cat-3 Cat-4 Cat-5

Data source : WSA, 2008

• About 25000 two wheelers, and 5000 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily

• Road space almost same

• Limited transport infrastructure

•  Traffic jams: waste of fuel, time, emissions, discomfort

• Reduced speeds

• 320 kl of petrol and 100 kl of diesel burnt daily due to the idling of vehicles at traffic intersections in Delhi alone (CRRI, 2003)

SHARE OF TRANSPORT SECTOR IN AMBIENT AIR POLLUTION: SOURCE APPORTIONMENT STUDY

EMISSIONS AT COUNTRY LEVEL

Sector-wise NOx Emissions in India13

87

13

305 60

5

353

1702

1531

14

481 67

9

408

1931

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Po

wer

Pla

nts

Oth

er F

uel

Prod

uctio

nan

dC

onsu

mpt

ion

Indu

stria

lC

ombu

stio

n

Non

-Ene

rgy

Use

Dom

estic

Tran

spor

t

kilo

tonn

es

2000 2005

SHARE OF TRANSPORT SECTOR IN DIFFERENT CITIES

19 10 15

49 57

7

4

11

26

18

4

5

9

19

3

26

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bangalore Pune Kanpur

PM10 (Residential)

Transport Paved road & soil dust Industries Domestic DG sets Secondary Others

48 34

24

4

4 5

6 16 28

28 18

14

46 24

0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bangalore Pune Kanpur

PM2.5 (Residential)

Transport Paved road & soil dust Industries Domestic DG sets Secondary Others

•  Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions)

•  In non-industrial cities, it is the largest source

SHARE OF TRANSPORT IN NOX EMISSIONS

67%

95%

47%

0%

0%

0%

23%

0% 8% 2%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bangalore Pune Kanpur

NOx emissions

Transport Road Dust Domestic DG Set

Industry Hotel Construction Others

SHARE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (BANGALORE)

Transport -PM

13%

21%

13%27%

24%2%

2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor

Transport NOx

15%

2%

12%

49%

20%2%

2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor

ALTERNATE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION Sector

s Alternate-I Alternate-II Alternate-III Alternate-IV

Description

Strategies to reduce the air pollution loads across various sectors.

Stringent scenario with many more strategies as compared to Alternate- I scenario.

Scenario that contains additional set of measures that are not a part of the common control options (e.g., introduction of FES, installation of (DOC/DPF)

Scenario with measures that are more oriented towards meeting the air quality standards in future

Transport

•  BS-V in 2015 •  Ban on 10

year old commercial vehicles

•  Metro •  PTS - diesel •  I&M •  DOC in BS-II

buses and DPF in BS-III buses

•  BS-VI in 2015 •  Ban on 10-yr old

com. and 15-yr old private vehicles

•  Metro •  PTS -CNG •  Electric vehicles •  I&M •  Conversion of

public transport to CNG

• BS-VI in 2015 • Ban on 15 yr old com. vehicles in 2012 and 10 yr old in 2017 • Metro • PTS-diesel • Electric vehicles • I&M • DOC/DPF after introduction of BS- IV fuel in 2010 to:

Old Buses and Trucks •  Fuel efficiency standards

•  BS-V in 2015 •  Ban on 10 yr old com.

vehicles •  Metro •  PTS- CNG •  Electric vehicles •  I&M •  Conversion of public

transport (commercial 3 & 4 w) to CNG

•  By-passing of trucks around Bangalore

ALTERNATE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION (CONTD.) Sectors Alternate-I Alternate-II Alternate-III Alternate-IV Industries Ban new air

polluting industries in city limits

• Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits • Shift from solid to

liquid fuel

•  Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits

•  Shift from solid fuel to liquid fuel

•  Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits

•  Shift from solid fuel to liquid fuel

DG sets •  Inspection and maintenance

•  Inspection and maintenance

• DOC and DPF applied to commercial DG sets (>12 kVA)

• No power cuts i.e. no usage of DG sets in the city

Road dust re-suspension

• Wall to wall paving

• Wall to wall paving • Wall to wall paving • Reduction of road

dust re-suspension due to by-passing of trucks

Construction

•  Better construction practices

•  Better construction practices

•  Better construction practices

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS LOADS FOR PM10 AND NOX UNDER THE BAU & ALT SCENARIOS

54.4

71.9

95.8

54.4 57.2

74.5

54.445.1

53.254.4

43.5

54.4

34.642.4

32.9

0

25

50

75

100

2007 2012 2017

PM

em

issi

on

load

s (T

/d)

BAU ALT-I ALT-II ALT-III ALT-IV

217

460

217

350

217217

299

217

122

321

254

227275258

131

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2012 2017

NO

x em

issi

on lo

ads

(T/d

)

BAU ALT-I ALT-II ALT-III ALT-IV

%PM reduction w.r.t. BAU Scenario 2012 2017 ALT-I -20% -22% ALT-II -37% -44% ALT-III -41% -55% ALT-IV -54% -64%

% NOx reduction wrt BAU Scenario 2012 2017 ALT-I -21% -24% ALT-II -29% -40% ALT-III -20% -35% ALT-IV -59% -73%

NOX CONCENTRATION (µG/M3) FOR BAU & ALT SCENARIOS

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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0 µg/m3

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280 µg/m3

300 µg/m3

BAU 2007

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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BAU 2012

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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0 µg/m3

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120 µg/m3

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280 µg/m3

300 µg/m3

BAU 2017

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300 µg/m3

Alt III 2012

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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300 µg/m3

Alt IV 2012

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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300 µg/m3

Alt III 2017

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000

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200 µg/m3

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280 µg/m3

300 µg/m3

Alt IV 2017

•  Alternate scenarios show a significant decrease compared to BAU scenario (both in 2012 & 2017)

•  Alt. IV scenario, has maximum reduction and all the areas in the study domain comply against the residential area standards

REGIONAL SCALE IMPACTS OF NOX •  While considerable attention paid to PM, NOx still remains almost

unattended

•  Health impacts

•  Leads to secondary particulate formulations

•  Acid rain

•  Important pre-cursor to Ozone formation

•  Regional scale impacts of NOx

OZONE FORMATION

•  NOx is an important pre-cursor for Ozone formation

•  Ozone values higher during April and October which generally have more sunshine than the winter and monsoon months of January and July, respectively.

•  Not only health but agricultural productivity is impacted

IMPACTS •  Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood

asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.

•  As per TERI’s estimates, about 50,000 deaths could be attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country.

•  Institute of Economic Growth (Delhi), 2003 estimated the annual damages from the urban air pollution in 15 major cities as Rs 111392 million.

•  ICCT, 2012 suggests that about 9500 excess deaths were avoided due to advancement of vehicular emission norms during 2000-2011. Moreover, by the year 2035, 48000 mortalities could be avoided annually, if stringent actions like advancement to improved vehicular emissions norms, provision of ULSD, improvement of fuel efficiency etc could be taken in the short timeframe.

•  Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc

EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

SHARE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bangalore Delhi Pune

PM10 emissions

2W 3W Car Bus Truck Others

U.S. HDV GHG AND FUEL EFFICIENCY FINAL RULE

•  26 % share in the transportation fuel used in the U.S.

•  Sets separate standards for engines and vehicles, ensures improvements in both

•  Sets separate standards for fuel consumption, CO2, N2O, CH4 and HFCs. Fuel consumption and CO2 standards are aligned.

•  Incentives for advanced technologies (e.g. EVs and Hybrids)

Source : EPA

Benefits 530 million barrels less oil ⎭270 MMT lower GHGs ⎭$50 billion in fuel savings ⎭$8 billion in new hardware ⎭$42 billion in net savings ⎭$49 billion in net benefits

STRATEGIES TO REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM HD COMMERCIAL VEHICLES •  Technological advancements – emissions control, fuel efficiency

improvements •  Fuel quality improvements •  Better I&M programs •  Effective traffic planning

•  Plying restrictions •  Bye-passing of transit traffic

•  Installation of control devices in older vehicles •  Fleet modernization programs