Thoughts on

Orchard Replacement

and it’s Challenges

David Bell, HVP, 2012

Why would the Industry consider

Orchard Replacement?

• Not uncommon in other horticultural crops

• Aust industry has 2 500 000 trees > 20 yrs

• Old orchards are a brake on productivity

gains … for given new technology :

– in a 7 000 000 tree industry

– if 1 000 000 trees only in new orchards adopt,

this represents 12.5% of the potential gain.

– Eventually younger industries will overtake us.

Why would Growers consider

Orchard Replacement?

• Orchards in Decline/AVG (in place of Tree Removal)

• New Genetics, improvements in

– Productivity, Pest/Disease Resistance,

Quality

• New Growing Systems

No Numbers Benefit/Cost

No Action Tree Removal

Orchard

Replacement

Benefits None Management Productivity

Costs None Mod High High

Long Term

Productivity Decline? Stable? Gain

Estimate of Gross Gains

Available

• Productivity

– Two Tonne Taskforce aiming for

=> +100% or 3t NIS/Ha or $7 500/Ha gross

How many orchards have low yield ‘locked in’?

– AMS breeding selections

=> G1 +30% or 1t NIS/Ha or $2 500/Ha gross

G2 + 60% or 2t NIS/Ha or $5 000/Ha gross

• Pest/Disease/Quality - AVG?

Estimate of Costs

• Tree removal, ground prep

=> $5 000/Ha

• Replanting

=> $7 500/Ha

• Lost gross production income

=> eg 6 yrs @ 3t NIS/Ha

=> 18t NIS/Ha or $45 000/Ha gross

Implications of

Lost Production Income

• Given new tech that doubles Gross/Ha

… but results in X years of lost production

• Gross breakeven is roughly double X yrs

Minimising the period of lost production is

the critical factor for Orchard Replacement

R&D Environment of

Continuous Improvement

• Continuous replacement of a small portion

of an orchard may be an option

– in an R&D environment delivering 5% gain/Yr

– replacing 5% of an orchard per year

– results in 75% of an orchard gaining at 5%

– should overtake ‘stable’ orchards after 10 yrs

Why do people Remove trees

yet not Replace them?

Based on 25% of Orchard Tree

Removal

Orchard

Replacement

Cost/Ha $5 000 $12 500

Initial Yield Reduction 17% - 21%* 25%

Years to Equal Production 6 – 10* 5 - 8

Long Term Gain 0%* 15% ?

* = McFadyen et al

Low Cost Planting (Sept 2011)

Low Cost Planting (Sept 2011)

Low Cost Planting (Sept 2012)

Low Cost Planting (Sept 2012)

Challenges for Orchard

Replacement

• Minimise the period of lost production

– Precocious, High Density Orchards

– Staggered Replacement

• Step increases in productivity, management,

pest/disease, quality …

• … plus an R&D environment delivering

continuous gains.

• Reduced tree removal & replant costs

Potential Benefits of Orchard

Replacement

• Long term increase in productivity instead

of long term decline

• Old orchards benefit from new technologies

• An industry advancing instead of stagnating

– Reduced risk, increased responsiveness

The technology may not be ready today, but it

is a goal worth chasing.