variations in size, growth and survival of hatchery...
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Variations in size, growth and
survival of hatchery Columbia River
Chinook salmon in
the Northern California Current
Brian Beckman, Larissa Rohrbach and David Teel
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries
Seattle, WA
Hatchery vs. Wild Salmonid Symposium
Portland, OR 22 – 23 Jan, 2015
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Return year
Adult spring
Chinook
at Bonneville
(USACE)
Abundance of Columbia River Spring
Chinook salmon adults varies inter-annually
Good ocean
Bad ocean – PDO positive
warm temps
poor feeding
2014
Smolt production relatively constant during this period
There is an emerging consensus that ocean conditions
limit adult salmon abundance
~ 5-fold
variation
Yearling Chinook salmon Columbia River
hatchery production ~ 33 million/year6 major stocks
Mid & Upper
Columbia River
Willamette
River
West
Cascade
Rivers Spring
Spring
Summer/Fall
Snake
River
Spring
Fall
Spring
Early marine habitat
of juvenile salmon
< 50 km
Confined to
Continental shelf
Parr from different stocks are widely spaced
geographically; Potential for interactions increase
as fish smolt and migrate to the ocean
X
All juvenile salmon
pass under the bridge
at Astoria
Goal: generate discussion on interactions between
ocean resources, smolt abundance and smolt size
on a stock-specific basis.
Outline:
marine growth and survival
varying size-biased survival of
hatchery smolts
size and marine growth
Data: NOAA Juvenile Salmon
Ocean Survey, 1998 - present
125°W 124°W 123°W
45¡ N
46¡ N
47¡ N
48¡ N LaPush
Astoria
Tillamook
Newport
TI
4
Washington
Oregon
180m
NOAA Salmon Survey
May, June and September
starting in 1998
2013, 2014 June only
This talk:
May and June data
Yearling Columbia River
Chinook salmon
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Return year
Adult spring
Chinook
at Bonneville
Why does marine survival vary?
What do juvenile salmon do in the ocean?
Eat & Grow
r2=0.85, p < 0.001
Ad
ult
sp
rin
g C
hin
oo
k @
Bo
nn
evil
le
mean IGF1** (+/- se)(UCR/Snk spring Chinook salmon)
Growth is related to adult return
95% CI
Ocean Entry Year
mean
IG
F1 (
+/-
se
)Growth* of UCR/SnkR Spring Chinook
varies between years
Marine growth* varies between years,
growth is related to survival
(Columbia River spring Chinook Salmon)
*Growth in June ~ 2 - 6 weeks post-ocean entry
** IGF1 is a hormone that reflects growth rate
Growth varies
=> Food is limited in some years
If food is limited
=> there is competition for food
Change focus from the ocean to hatcheries
?
Most (all?) hatcheries have size @
release targets
How does smolt size at release
relate to marine survival?
1. Does size of smolts relate to survival?
2. Does this vary between years
(ocean conditions)?
Historic - compare release groups of different mean size (CWT)
1. Yes, big > small
2. Not explicitly addressed, experiments expensive
=> limited to a couple of years
Present – new opportunity = PIT-tags, compare individuals
1. Lots of data, surprisingly little analysis
2. Wait for ~ 2 minutes
125°W 120°W 115°W
42°N
46°N
50°N
Longitude
La
titu
de
Carson NFH
Bonneville
Dam
Yearling spring Chinook
salmon
Release PIT-tagged fish
Above Bonneville (interrogate adults)
Relatively close to ocean:
less influence riverine and
hydro-system mortality
No Barging
Consistent annual timing of PIT-tagging
(2003 – 2010)
Examining effects of smolt
size on survival: data fishing
at Carson NFH
Overall adult returns vary during 8 years
of Carson data: ocean conditions vary
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Return year
Adult spring
Chinook
at Bonnevillehighest survival
lowest survival
highest survival
lowest survival
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Ocean entry
year
Smolt size of surviving Carson adults varies by year in
relation to ocean conditions
Not mean size of all smolts, mean smolt size for surviving adults
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Pattern is similar across 3 age classes:
smolt size of surviving Carson adults is greater
in bad ocean years
Age 2 (minijack)
r2=0.82
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
May PDO
Siz
e a
t ta
gg
ing
(m
m)
Age 4
r2=0.83
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
May PDO
Siz
e a
t ta
gg
ing
(m
m)
Age 3 (jack)
r2=0.65
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
-1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
May PDO
Siz
e a
t ta
gg
ing
(m
m)
(-PDO = “good” for salmon)
Size selective mortality occurs in 1st ocean
year (same pattern multiple ages)
More intense selection in “bad” ocean years
(larger smolt size of surviving adults with
+ PDO)
Why does survival vary with
size?
What about salmon in the ocean?NOAA Juvenile Salmon Ocean Survey
1998 - present
Length (mm)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
Yearling Columbia R Chinook salmon:
marine growth varies with size
IGF
1
p<0.001, r2=0.20
2006 - 2011, May, all stocks
IGF1 - size relationships vary between years in May(slope of regression line)
Snake River spring Chinook salmon
level slope
+ slope
IGF vs Length slope varies with
ocean conditions
Good ocean
~
>>>
Bad ocean
IGF1 - size relationships vary between years
due to varying ocean conditions
Snake River spring Chinook salmon
Bad ocean
Good ocean
Size- biased growth occurs
Big fish have higher growth
than smaller fish
in “bad” ocean years
More hatchery data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
51
42
3125
4640
Weig
ht
(g)
Release
Size
We
stC
Sp
Wil
lRS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Sn
kS
p
Sn
kF
a
UC
RS
uF
a
Fish Passage
Center
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 Fish Released (millions)
We
stC
Sp
Wil
lRS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Sn
kS
p
Sn
kF
a
UC
RS
uF
a
Release size of yearling Chinook salmon varies 2-fold
by stock
What about salmon in the ocean?NOAA Juvenile Salmon Ocean Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
We
stC
Sp
Wil
lRS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Sn
kS
p
Sn
kF
a
UC
RS
uF
a
We
stC
Sp
Wil
lRS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Sn
kS
p
Sn
kF
a
UC
RS
uF
a
JuneMayw
eig
ht
(g)
weig
ht
(g)
Weight of fish caught in the ocean
varies > 2-fold by stock
2006-2011
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Upriver Summer/Fall
Upriver Spring
Downriver Spring
IGF1
Smallest fish have the lowest growth
by stock
Growth in May
Different stocks have
differing smolt sizes
Different stocks have
differing early marine
growth rates
Do different stocks have
differing size-based marine
mortality rates?
Do stock specific size-
based mortality rates vary
with ocean conditions?
Data and analysis needed to confirm
preliminary analysis
Stock-specific survival data
(hatchery and wild)
More smolt size - survival analysis (and data)
by stock
Acknowledgement of interactions:
years (ocean conditions)
stock
size
Time dependent bonus slide?
Bio
ma
ss$
Sto
ck.o
rde
r
Bio
ma
ss$
Sto
ck.o
rde
r
Willamette Sp
W Cascade Sp
Snake Sp
Mid&Up Col Sp
Upper Col Su/Fa
Snake Fa
MAY JUNE
20
10
20
11
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
10
20
11
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
Biomass (abundance x weight)
varies by stock, month and year
Ocean entry year
Summary:
- marine growth is limited in some years
- marine survival is related to marine growth
- size selective marine mortality occurs
- more intensive marine size selection in low
marine growth years
- differences in growth between big
and small fish are greater in years with low
marine growth
- size varies among stocks
Interesting questions about current
management practices:
1. How many smolts should be released?
Should this vary by year?
How many smolts from what stocks?
2. What should smolt release size be?
Should there be a size limit?
3. When should smolts be released?
Create “windows” of low competition?
Acknowledgements
Physiology group NWFSCDeb Harstad
Kathy CooperDina Spangenberg
Shell NanceDave MetzgerDon Larsen
Captains & CrewF/V Frosti
Funding
Bonneville Power
NOAA Fisheries
Ocean Salmon Ecology group NOAA NWFSCCheryl Morgan
Suz HintonCindy BucherBill PetersonBob EmmettPaul Bentley
Kym JacobsonJoe Fisher
Laurie WeitkampKurt Fresh