valuewalk - breaking news and in-depth analysis on ......page 2 all data is for the period 31-dec-15...

All data is for the period 31-Dec-15 to 31-Mar-16. Source: Odey internal unaudited data, net of fees and charges. Past performance does not guarantee future results

and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the

base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

During Q1-16 OEI (€) returned -25.8%, OEI Mac ($) returned -26.8% and Odey Swan (€ I) returned

-23.1%; the long-only funds returned: Opus (£) -4.9%, Odey Allegra International (€) -9.7% and

Odey Pan European (€ R) -11.4%. The MSCI Daily TR Net Europe returned -7.0% (€), -2.5% ($)

and the MSCI Daily TR Net World returned +2.2% (£) and -5.0% (€).

In OEI the short equity book made the largest negative impact on performance (-11.0% after

currency hedging). Positive contributions before currency hedging came from Lancashire Holdings

(+38bps), UniCredit (+29bps) and Swatch (+27bps). These were outweighed by negative

contributions, the worst of which came from Anglo American (-214bps), ArcelorMittal (-147bps)

and Ashmore Group (-108bps).

After currency hedging the long equity book posted a negative return for the quarter (-10.4%).

Positive contributions before currency hedging came from a number of positions including

Randgold Resources (+33bps), Sibanye Gold (+30bps) and Hunter Douglas (+12bps). These were

outweighed by negative contributions, the most notable of which were attributable to Sky (-120bps),

Nokia (-101bps) and Pendragon (-59bps).

During the quarter active currencies gave an overall negative contribution of -7.1%, the majority of

which was attributable to the AUD/USD position.

Elsewhere, commodities and government bonds return +3.0% and +0.1% respectively.

Source: Odey Internal Data. Performance is net of fees and other charges and includes the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance does not guarantee future results

and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base

currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

*Fund costs include mgt fee, perf fee, admin fee, legal, audit, directors fee etc, offset by the ADL Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all

investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund

may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Total

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

LONGS

Equities 0.16 6.14 -4.47 1.35 -6.50 -3.29 2.16 5.16 -0.36 -3.37 -4.98 -1.50 -8.68

Gov't Bonds -0.84 -0.43 -0.48 -0.07 -0.56 -0.05 0.29 0.66 -0.26 -0.06 0.63 0.40 -0.70

Corp Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Commodities 0.16 -0.19 0.26 -0.41 -0.13 -0.36 0.40 -0.56 0.02 0.14 0.90 -0.21 0.16

Index Futures -0.05 -0.31 0.07 0.00 -0.13 -0.27 0.01 -0.04 0.00 0.55 -0.53 -0.20 -0.80

-0.57 5.21 -4.62 0.87 -7.32 -3.97 2.86 5.22 -0.60 -2.74 -3.98 -1.51 -10.02

SHORTS

Equities -6.30 -1.30 6.74 -2.44 13.12 10.30 -15.61 -5.23 4.33 7.91 -5.90 -12.26 -7.91

Gov't Bonds -0.02 0.06 0.00 -0.18 -0.12 -0.17 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.46 -0.52 0.07 -1.29

Corp Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Commodities -0.17 0.05 0.11 0.54 0.13 0.13 -0.04 0.13 0.36 1.60 0.50 -0.09 2.78

Index Futures -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.25 -0.09 -0.22 0.01 0.27 -0.06 -0.35 -0.48 -1.60

-7.21 -1.19 6.85 -2.38 13.38 10.17 -15.92 -5.09 4.91 8.99 -6.27 -12.76 -8.01

Prop FX -11.63 1.16 -1.88 1.76 0.65 1.28 -1.91 -0.57 -0.56 1.08 -0.41 -8.09 -17.99

TOTAL FUND COSTS* 0.11 0.04 -0.12 0.04 -0.06 0.12 0.07 -0.06 -0.04 -0.17 -0.09 -0.05 -0.15

GRAND TOTAL -19.30 5.22 0.23 0.29 6.65 7.60 -14.90 -0.50 3.71 7.16 -10.75 -22.41 -36.17

Data as at 31-Mar-16.

The information and any opinions expressed are believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed

Private credit in the US is around 240% of GNP

Over the last year credit has expanded by roughly 10%

So there are 24% more dollars in the economy, which has produced:

less than 3% nominal growth

4% wage inflation, and

2.1% CPI growth

Three things spring out from this:

1) Why does so much credit now have so little impact on growth?

2) With wages rising by 4% and inflation by 2%, it is no wonder S&P profits are down 7%

excluding energy and down 11% including energy

3) Productivity - does it matter?


Source: Deutsche Bank, IBESSource: Deutsche Bank, Clarifi/Computstat

Data as at 31-Mar-16.


M3 lending is now annualising at 40% of GNP YoY

Last year it grew by 32% of GNP and yet was only responsible for less than 7% nominal GNP growth

First quarter GNP growth is running at annualised rate of just 4.5% QoQ

With household income responsible for 50% of GNP, and growing at 10% YoY, 5% out of the 7%

growth came from wage increases

Social financing is now running on a 16x multiplier

Eg: $100 of new lending generates only $6 of GNP, half of which comes from the interest on

that new lending, given rates of around 3%

Source: Haver Analytics and OAM Research.


Sources: Haver Analytics, OAM Research and Bloomberg.


Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.


10%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer C&I Real Estate

10%

8%

6%

Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.


4.7%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan

Credit Card Total

11.4%

1%

2.4%

4.7%

4.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Q1-92 Q1-98 Q1-04 Q1-10 Feb-16

Loans & Leases, all Commercial Banks, sa % yoy

Median Usual Weekly Earnings: Full-Time Wage & Salary Workers, sa % yoy

CPI-U: All Items, 1982-84=100, % yoy

Real Gross Domestic Product (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2009$), % yoy

HIKECUT CUT CUT CUT CUT CUTHIKE HIKE HIKE HIKE

Source: Bloomberg as at 19-Apr-2016


iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is a HYG US equity exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the investment

results of an index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds. [FIGI BBG000R2T3H9]

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

Mar

-2011

May

-201

1

Jul-20

11

Sep-2

011

Nov-

2011

Jan-

2012

Mar

-2012

May

-201

2

Jul-20

12

Sep-2

012

Nov-

2012

Jan-

2013

Mar

-2013

May

-201

3

Jul-20

13

Sep-2

013

Nov-

2013

Jan-

2014

Mar

-2014

May

-201

4

Jul-20

14

Sep-2

014

Nov-

2014

Jan-

2015

Mar

-2015

May

-201

5

Jul-20

15

Sep-2

015

Nov-

2015

Jan-

2016

Mar

-2016

S&P 500 Index (Left) High Yield bond ETF (HYG US Equity - Right)

Source: UBS


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Jan-9

6

Aug-9

6

Mar-9

7

Oct-

97

May-9

8

Dec-9

8

Jul-

99

Feb-0

0

Sep-0

0

Apr-

01

No

v-0

1

Jun-0

2

Jan-0

3

Aug-0

3

Mar-0

4

Oct-

04

May-0

5

Dec-0

5

Jul-

06

Feb-0

7

Sep-0

7

Apr-

08

No

v-0

8

Jun-0

9

Jan-1

0

Aug-1

0

Mar-1

1

Oct-

11

May-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jul-

13

Feb-1

4

Sep-1

4

Apr-

15

No

v-1

5

$ (

billio

ns)

CCC

B

BB

BBB

AAA

AA

A

Source: UBS


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

A BBB BB B CCC

15.15%

4.21%

3.10%

9.33%

6.22%

The components of the BOTM index are:

1) Car Production (seasonally adjusted)

2) Truck Production (seasonally adjusted)

3) Raw Steel Production (American Iron and Steel

Institute, seas adjusted)

4) Lumber Production (Western Wood Products

Association, seas adjusted)

5) Coal Production (Bituminous and Lignite Production,

Energy Information Administration, seas adjusted)

6) Electricity Output Index (Edison Electric Institute)

7) Railroad Carloadings (seasonally adjusted)

8) Home Purchase Index (MBA, seasonally adjusted)

9) Real Weekly Chain Store Sales (ICSC/GS measure,

adj for inflation)

10) Box Office Receipts (Top 10 movies, latest

weekend, seas adjusted)


Source: Dow Jones/Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ/Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics and OAM Research. The information and any opinions expressed are believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be

guaranteed

Provisions -50bps

25bps 75bps

Interest rates +100bps

0.50% 1.50% rates

= happiness, RoA of 1.5%, and 7x earnings

Provisions -50bps

25bps 75bps

Interest Rates only +25bp only 1 rate rise

0.50% 0.75% rates

= 0.75% rates & 25% profits fall

Source: Bloomberg as at 13-Apr-2016.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15

S&P 500 Index (LHS) S&P 500 Banks Sector (RHS)

Source: Redburn


-600000

-400000

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000N

ov-

99

No

v-00

No

v-01

No

v-02

No

v-03

No

v-04

No

v-05

No

v-06

No

v-07

No

v-08

No

v-09

No

v-10

No

v-11

No

v-12

No

v-13

No

v-14

No

v-15

Germany France

Italy Spain

Source: OAM Research and Haver Analytics.


Source: Bloomberg


50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015

SX7P Index

SXXP Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

SX7P Index

SXXP Index

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015

SX7P Index / SXXP Index

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

SX7P Index / SXXP Index

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch European Quant Strategy, Lines are long run avg and +/-1SD



The credit cycle is being driven by overcapacity everywhere leading to industries producing and

selling at below their operating costs.

Losses building up in these industries are threatening to create losses in the banking system

At the same time as banking profitability is weakened by QE & zero interest rates

Banks need rights issues to deal with these losses…

…but why would anyone want to subscribe while NIMs are driven lower by ongoing QE?

Only reason to subscribe would be the attraction of rising profits, which is only achievable if their

loan book gets repriced, such that only higher interest rates can make banks attractive

but this would bring on the recession which was kept at bay by zero interest rates and QE.

and this raising of interest rates is not even being discussed yet by policy makers, hence:

QE, or rather, Q.E.D.


Source: Conference Board, CEA calculations


Source: OAM Research and Company Accounts.


1.

2.

3.

Source: OAM Research


China RoW World China RoW Global

local consumption 700 783

exports 100 70

total 800 800 1600 853 800 1653

of which scrap 80 450 530 550

of which primary 720 350 1070 1103

implied irion ore needs 1605 1655

of which China sources 230 230

implied seabourne iron ore needs 1375 1425

global seabourne iron ore supply 1405 1460

2015 2016

iron ore 60 40

copper 225 200

platinum 1000 1000

Anglo

$ bn 2016 2016

copper

iron ore

platinum

diamond

coal

ebitda 5.4 3.9

capex -3.2 -3.2

cash EBIT 2.2 0.7

mins -0.5 -0.2

interest -1.0 -1.0

taxes -0.4 -0.2

FCF 0.3 -0.7

mkt cap 13.9 13.9

net debt 13.0 13.0

EV 26.9 26.9

EV/cash EBIT 12.2 38.4

Central

scenarioSpot

Source: OAM Research and Company Accounts. *Sands China figures are OAM Research estimates.


Sands China* US $ bn

Market Cap 32

EV 34

2016 E Revenue 5.4

2016 E EBITDA 1.2

EV/EBITDA 28x

EV/Revenue 6.3x

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep 1

1

Dec

11

Mar

12

Jun 1

2

Sep 1

2

Dec

12

Mar

13

Jun 1

3

Sep 1

3

Dec

13

Mar

14

Jun 1

4

Sep 1

4

Dec

14

Mar

15

Jun 1

5

Sep 1

5

Dec

15

Mar

16p

Jun 1

6E

US Subs

Int. Subs

US subscriber growth

Int. subscriber growth

20.0%

22.5%

25.0%

27.5%

30.0%

32.5%

35.0%

37.5%

40.0%

42.5%

45.0%

47.5%

Mar

13

Jun

13

Sep

13

Dec

13

Mar

14

Jun

14

Sep

14

Dec

14

Mar

15

Jun

15

Sep

15

Dec

15

Mar

16p

Subscriber growth

Streaming Obligation growth

Linear (Subscriber growth)

Linear (Streaming Obligation growth)

2

-51

13

-74-78

-163

-229

-252

-276-261-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

Mar

12

Jun

12

Sep

12

Dec

12

Mar

13

Jun

13

Sep

13

Dec

13

Mar

14

Jun

14

Sep

14

Dec

14

Mar

15

Jun

15

Sep

15

Dec

15

Mar

16p

Jun

16E

Thousa

nds

Source: OAM Research and Company data.


US $ bn

EV 50

Yearly cash burn -1

Sales 8.8

Credit splurge is one year old

Replacement cycle looks like it has peaked

Profits are falling and usually that is a prelude to investment being scaled back

However, a weak USD and a resurgent China thanks to even greater monetary and fiscal

stimulus, is tempting

No one is talking about the need to raise interest rates

Policy makers remain determined to get to recovery

However, zero interest rates and QE kill banks and credit cycle calls for rights issues

Helicopter money will bring inflation, but why not raise interest rates?

Save banks and allow recession – long overdue




0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

Apr-2011 Apr-2012 Apr-2013 Apr-2014 Apr-2015

AUDUSD currency



10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016

Dow Jones Index All time high500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

S&P 500 Index All time high

Source: Odey Internal Data. Performance is net of fees and other charges and includes the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance does not guarantee future results

and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base

currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

*Fund costs include mgt fee, perf fee, admin fee, legal, audit, directors fee etc, offset by the ADL Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all

investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund

may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations.

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Ave

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

LONGS

Equities 120.5 131.2 122.7 119.8 101.3 81.6 86.4 89.7 86.0 84.3 85.2 77.3 98.8

Gov't Bonds 29.5 14.7 4.7 10.4 13.9 13.1 14.2 14.6 14.3 14.1 25.0 20.7 15.8

Corp Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Commodities 6.3 6.3 7.3 7.0 6.5 10.5 11.5 8.1 7.9 7.8 32.2 42.3 12.8

Index Futures 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

163.0 152.2 134.7 137.2 131.6 105.2 112.1 112.4 108.2 106.2 142.4 140.3 128.8

SHORTS

Equities 142.4 139.0 125.2 145.5 148.5 166.2 157.7 142.0 127.5 150.4 189.8 152.3 148.9

Gov't Bonds 31.8 30.6 45.7 46.6 48.0 24.1 21.0 21.2 21.2 33.8 26.2 17.8 30.7

Corp Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Commodities 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.2 0.0 3.8 5.7 6.6 2.2 0.0 2.8

Index Futures 4.9 0.0 0.3 2.7 0.0 2.9 2.7 8.0 0.7 2.0 12.6 7.2 3.7

181.3 172.9 174.1 197.4 199.1 195.4 181.4 175.0 155.1 192.8 230.8 177.3 186.1

Prop FX 79.7 50.4 45.4 67.8 95.1 113.0 80.2 99.7 97.4 151.2 187.0 162.8 102.5

GRAND TOTAL 424.0 375.5 354.2 402.4 425.8 413.6 373.7 387.1 360.7 450.2 560.2 480.4 417.3

Source: Odey Internal Data as at 31-Mar-16.


Gross Exposure-Percent Book NAV Jun-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Long Equity 68.7% 56.5% 55.7% 79.4% 61.9% 73.3% 76.1% 82.4% 84.5%

Sky 4.0% 4.7% 7.6% 11.6% 11.2% 12.5% 11.2% 9.2% 6.3%

Nokia 0.1% 1.9% 1.4% 4.0% 7.0% 8.1% 5.1%

Randgold Resources 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 2.6% 3.6%

Vodafone 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 2.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.6%

Pendragon 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2%

Man Group 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9%

Orange 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8%

Hunter Douglas 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8%

Oxford Nanopore Technologies 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5%

Barclays 2.3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4%

Shiseido Company 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.3%

Koninklijke KPN 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0%

Sibanye Gold 1.5% 1.9%

Dixons Carphone 2.2% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8%

Compagnie de Saint-Gobain 0.7% 1.8%

Inmarsat 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7%

Sports Direct 8.4% 3.3% 2.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

Toyota Industries 4.1% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4%

Greencore 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

Red Fort Partnership 0.9% 1.3%




Short Equity 83.0% 68.8% 107.0% 99.3% 125.0% 114.6% 132.8% 173.7% 154.6%

Ashmore -4.8% -3.0% -4.0% -4.7% -4.0% -4.4% -3.7% -4.7% -6.4%

Las Vegas Sands -3.3% -3.9% -5.9% -9.2% -6.2% -5.5% -8.8% -8.4% -6.4%

Intu Properties -4.2% -3.9% -4.7% -5.1% -5.6% -5.1% -4.6% -5.2% -5.1%

ArcelorMittal -3.5% -1.5% -3.7% -3.8% -2.6% -4.1% -3.5% -5.0% -4.9%

Statoil -0.4% -1.3% -1.1% -0.5% -3.4% -5.2% -4.7%

Holcim -3.4% -3.9% -4.0% -4.7% -4.7%

Lancashire Holdings Limited -1.3% -2.0% -3.2% -3.9% -4.1% -4.4% -4.1% -4.5% -4.6%

Coca-Cola HBC -3.2% -3.2% -3.2% -3.9% -3.8% -3.9% -4.2% -4.2% -4.6%

Prudential -2.0% -4.2% -4.5%

Swatch -2.4% -2.7% -4.9% -6.4% -6.4% -5.6% -6.6% -6.7% -4.4%




Equity 36.7% 35.8% 39.9% 54.0% 45.6% 49.1% 58.4% 52.8% 52.8%

Sky 4.1% 5.9% 8.0% 9.2% 10.1% 10.1% 9.8% 9.6% 9.5%

Nokia 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% 7.9% 7.2% 5.4%

Man Group 2.0% 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4%

Koninklijke KPN 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9%

Vodafone 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.8%

Orange 1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%

Oxford Nanopore Technologies 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%

Pendragon 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5%

Shiseido Company 1.0% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%

Sports Direct 3.4% 2.6% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

Randgold Resources 1.0% 1.5%

Toyota Industries 3.7% 3.2% 3.9% 3.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4%

Lonza 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

Dixons Carphone 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%

Howden Joinery 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Franco-Nevada Corp 0.9%

Barclays 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9%

Ocado 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%

Wells Fargo & Co 2.2% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 3.5% 1.0% 0.7%

Inmarsat 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%



Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Exposure is based on a notional exposure figure.

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Long Equity Exposure

Short Equity Exposure

Net Equity Exposure

Gross Equity Exposure-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Equity Government Bond

Foreign Exchange Commodity



-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

Apr-14 Jun-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

North America United Kingdom Europe Excl UKJapan Australasia Asia Excl JapanLatin America Africa Rest of World

Head of Sales

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+44 (20) 7208 1451

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+44 (20) 7208 1416

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7478 9769

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1455

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1416

[email protected]

+41 (22) 322 2024

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7208 1684

[email protected]

+1 (212) 257 4389

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7478 9769

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London W1K 2ND

Tel: 020 7208 1400 ~ Fax: 020 7208 1401

www.odey.com

[email protected]

+44 (20) 7478 9769

This is a marketing communication from Odey which is not intended to be viewed as a piece of independent investment research.

© 2016 Odey Asset Management LLP (“OAM”) has approved this communication which is for private circulation only, and in the UK is directed to persons who are professional clients or eligible

counterparties for the purposes of the FCA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook and it is not intended for and must not be distributed to retail clients. It does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy

or invest in any of the securities or funds mentioned herein and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment taxation or any other advice. The information and any opinions have been

obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all investments and the income derived

therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. This communication and the

information contained therein may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 as amended by the Financial Services Act 2012 of the United Kingdom

(the “Act”) and the rules of the FCA. This communication is not subject to any restrictions on dealing ahead. The distribution of this communication may, in some countries, be restricted by law or regulation.

Accordingly, anyone who comes into possession of this communication should inform themselves of and observe these restrictions. OAM is not liable for a breach of such restrictions or for any losses relating

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