value of electric vehicle coordination
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TRANSCRIPT
Value of Coordination inElectric Vehicle Charging
18-777 December 8th 2011
Jon Donadee
Outline
• Background• “Dumb” EV Charging• “Smart” EV Charging• “Smarter” EV Charging• Results and Comparison• Conclusions
Background• EVs are gaining popularity
– Environmental reasons• CO2• Local air quality
– Energy Independence – 840,000 EVs sold per year by 2020
“Dumb” Charging
• Decision to charge EV is independent of price• Inefficiencies
– Increase peak load• Requires more generators
– Overload transformers– Doesn’t minimize line losses– Doesn’t minimize Cost
• Reasoning for this strategy– Charging an EV is cheap
Energy Price
100 400 700 1000 1300 1600 1900 220020.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Average Price($/MWh) vs Time of Day
Average PriceExponential (Average Price)
Time of day
$/M
Wh
Uncoordinated “Smart” Charging
• Individuals plan charging schedule based on predicted prices• Uncoordinated• Issue: Assumes they have no impact on the price
– True for small number of EVs
• Equivalent to aggregator ignoring effect on price
“Smart” Optimization Model
Variables:
= total EV energy for vehicle v in hour h
= Energy Charged to vehicle v in
timestep t
Parameters:
= Assumed Price at hour h
= energy required by EV owner
=maximum charging rate for vehicle v
= timestep size
S = scale factor for # of Evs represented in Agg
C = scale factor for commute time
= Efficiency from generator to battery
Uncoordinated Cost Problem v
S.T.
Simulation Data• Simulation of 1M Evs
– Optimize 1000 over EVs – Scale so each EV represents 1000 Evs – S=1000
• Randomly assigned charging equipment– 30% L1 Charging 3.3kW– 60% L2 Charging 16.8kW– 10% L3 50kW
• Randomly Generated Driving Patterns– Plug-in/Unplug Times– Energy requirements for commute to work
• EnergyReq(kWh)=(2*CommuteTime*30mph)/(3mi/kWh)• Losses
– Assume 90% efficient from generator to battery• Assumptions
– EVs only charging at home– No energy loss while parked at work– Travel time is the same in both directions
EV Driving Pattern Generation
• Hour of Arrival at work– A ~ N( 9, 0.5)
• Time at work– W~N(8.5,0.2)
• Commute time– Lognormal
• Mean 30 min• Variance 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nu
mb
er
of V
eh
ice
s
Commute Time (min)
Distribution of Commute Times
EV Driving Patterns
0 5 10 15 20 25 306
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Car #
Tim
e of
Day
Arrive Home
Leave Work
Arrive Work
Leave Home
Expected Energy Price
100 400 700 1000 1300 1600 1900 220020.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Average Price($/MWh) vs Time of Day
Average PriceExponential (Average Price)
Time of day
$/M
Wh
Optimized Charging Schedule
12am 1am 2am 3am 4am 5am 6am0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Energy Usage(MWh) vs Time
Time of Day
Ener
gy P
urch
ased
(MW
h)
Energy Market
50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 13000020
40
60
80
100
120
140
f(x) = 6.25541624531637E-13 x³ − 1.50684823824867E-07 x² + 0.012574895490486 x − 323.491186405765R² = 0.973573255226382
Price($/MWh) vs Quantity(MWh)
Price($/MWh) Polynomial (Price($/MWh))
MWh
Pric
e ($
/MW
h)
Uncoordinated Charging Results
4pm5pm
6pm7pm
8pm9pm
10pm11pm
12am1am
2am3am
4am5am
6am7am
8am9am
10am0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Price Differences($/MWh) vs Time
Time of Day
Pric
e Ch
ange
($/M
Wh)
• Graph of the difference between the Actual Price resulting from “Smart” charging and the Assumed Price used in Optimization
Uncoordinated Charging Results• Results if travel distance and # of vehicles is doubled
4pm5pm
6pm7pm
8pm9pm
10pm11pm
12am1am
2am3am
4am5am
6am7am
8am9am
10am02468
101214161820
Price Differences($/MWh) vs Time
Time of Day
Pric
e D
iffer
ence
($/M
Wh)
Coordinated Charging
Variables:
= total fleet energy purchased in hour h
= Energy Charged to vehicle v in
timestep t
= total fleet energy purchased timestep t
Parameters:
= Predicted Price at hour h
= Predicted Exogenous Demand in hour h
= energy required by EV owner
=maximum charging rate for vehicle v
= timestep size
S = scale factor for # of Evs represented in Agg
C = scale factor for commute time
= Efficiency from generator to battery
Optimization Problem Convexity
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600
2
4
6
8
10
12x 10
8
Obje
ctive F
unction V
alu
e
Et+Dt (GW)
Results
12am 1am 2am 3am 4am 5am 6am0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Energy Usage(MWh) vs Time
Time of Day
Ener
gy P
urch
ased
(MW
h)
Coordinated Charging Uncoordinated Charging
Results
Error of Uncoordinated
Model($/day)
Error of Uncoordinated
Model(%)
Savings vs Uncoordinated
Model(%)
Savings vs Uncoordinated
Model$/day
1 Million EVs 43,211 10.26 4.32 $17,457 2 Million EVs 167,939 18.18 10.46 $87,445 3 Million EVs 434,445 27.71 21.80 $280,611 2x Distance1Million EVs
110,078
12.48 4.94 $41,550 2x Distance
2 Million EVs519,334
25.169 17.16 $302,221
Conclusions
• EVs may have a significant Effect on Energy Prices in the future
• Coordinated charging can anticipate effect of consumption on price
• Problem may be convex, TBD
Questions?