using the psychological science of crisis leadership and ... › practice › programs › dmhi ›...
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Using the Psychological Science of Crisis Leadership and Communications to Navigate the Coronavirus: A Webinar for Public OfficialsPRESENTERSBaruch Fischhoff, PhD, Ellen Peters, PhD, and Roxane Cohen Silver, PhD
MODERATORSSandra L. Shullman, PhD, and Arthur C. Evans Jr., PhD
M A R C H 2 0 , 2 0 2 0
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Welcome
M A R C H 2 0 , 2 0 2 0
PRESENTERS
Dr. Ellen Peters
Dr. Baruch Fischhoff
Dr. Roxane Cohen Silver
MODERATORSDr. Sandra Shullman and Dr. Arthur Evans
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- Invisible enemy-Unknown duration-Widespread impact-Unprecedented (no blueprint)
The Current Crisis –COVID-19
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- Know yourself and be mindful of your shortcomings
- Practice empathy and understanding
Showing up as a Leader
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- Surround yourself with diverse perspectives to promote learning
- Stay focused on the ‘critical few’How You
Behave as a Leader
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- Understanding perceptions of risk and accurately communicating in a time of crisis
- Fulfilling your duty to inform in times of uncertainty
- Promoting healthy coping and resilience
What is Most Important?
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M A R C H 2 0 , 2 0 2 0
Understanding Risk Perceptions and How to CommunicateEllen Peters, PhDPhilip H. Knight Chair Director, Center for Science Communication Research (SCR)University of Oregon
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1. To assess risk2. To motivate action3. To guide their thinking
People use their emotions
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1. More fear = I’m at higher risk
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3. More fear = more thinking about the negatives
2. More fear = more actions
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- Especially when cognitive abilities are lower- Lower literacy or numeracy- Highly emotional- Stress- Cognitive load
Evidence-based information presentation matters
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1. Identify communication goalsThen choose strategically how to present information
2. Reduce cognitive effort3. Provide numbers
- To correct misperceptions- To provide a more complete perspective
What communicators should do
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4. Show images of people doing recommended5. Let them know this can be stopped and what
they can do (and what you’re doing) 6. Test communications
What communicators should do
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- The science of communication exists and should be used.- Understand your audience- How information is presented influences how it is
understood and used- Present information strategically
Conclusion
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M A R C H 2 0 , 2 0 2 0
Fulfilling the Duty to InformBaruch FischhoffDepartment of Engineering and Public PolicyInstitute for Politics and StrategyCarnegie Mellon University
CMU.EDU/EPP/PEOPLE/FACULTY/BARUCH-FISCHOFF.HTML
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- Making ends meet- Doing their jobs safely- Taking care of loved ones at home- Taking care of loved ones remotely- Finding food, supplies, and
medications- Supporting the vulnerable in their
community
…
People Face Stressful Decisions
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- The evidence that people see may not be representative, or recognized as such.
- Generally useful mental models may lead people astray.
- Experts may use jargon, vague terms (“soon,” “likely”), not reveal the limits to their knowledge.
- Public officials may ignore people’s problems, misunderstand or spin the facts, contradict one another, contradict themselves
Their Information Sources are Imperfect
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- Emotions can both cloud and focus thinking.- Poor communications can needlessly increase
anxiety.- Ignoring people’s problems can undermine their
trust in experts and public officials.- People may strengthen social ties, when
institutions fail them.
Cognitive Processes Interact with Social and Emotional Ones
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-The constituent cognitive, emotional, and social processes have been studied for many years.
Risk Communication Is a Mature Scientific Area
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Risk Communication at NASEM
21http://www.nap.edu/catalog/1189.html (1989)
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Risk Communication at NASEM
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/6034/ http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21666/ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24738 http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18870/
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Science of Science Communication
pnas.org/content/110/Supplement_3 pnas.org/content/111/Supplement_4
PNAS, 116 (16), 7670-7675. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1805863115
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A Guide to Timely, Inexpensive, Scientifically Grounded Communication
24http://www.fda.gov/AboutFDA/ReportsManualsForms/Reports/ucm268078.htm
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- Summarizes the science- Provides practical implications- Shows how to evaluate draft
communications- for no resources at all- for minimal resources- for resources commensurate with the
stakes riding on the communication
EachChapter<3000 WORDS
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Content Design Process
- Analysis — What specific decisions do people face?- Description — How do they make them intuitively?- Intervention — How can we help them to do better?- Evaluation — Are our current efforts good enough?
Repeat, as necessary.
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Some Applications
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– Radon– pre-term birth – pharmaceuticals – climate change– phishing – breast cancer – nuclear incidents – tornadoes – xenotransplantation – smart meters – HIV/AIDS …
– sexual assault – intelligence analysis– EMF– avian flu– palliative care– breast implants– nuclear energy in space – Plan B (morning after pill)– small modular reactors– vaccines (anthrax, MMR)– Critical care medicine…
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Decision Science on Pandemic Disease
- Bruine de Bruin, W., Fischhoff, B., Brilliant, L., & Caruso, D. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza. Global Public Health 1(2), 178-193.
- Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Guvenc, U., Caruso, D., & Brilliant, L. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. 33, 133-151.
- Fischhoff, B., Wong-Parodi, G., Garfin, D., Holman, E.A., & Silver, R. (2018). Public understanding of Ebola risks: Mastering an unfamiliar threat. Risk Analysis, 38, 71-83. doi: 10.1111/risa.12794
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- A network with needed substantive expertise, to get the facts right
- Ties with community leaders to identify needs, and get the right facts
- A process for rapid message testing
- A strategic commitment to risk communication
Applying the Science Requires
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A Strategic Communication ProcessFischhoff, B. (2015). The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis. Science, 350(6260), 527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6516
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M A R C H 2 0 , 2 0 2 0
Coping with Anxiety during a Pandemic: How to Ensure Population ResilienceRoxane Cohen Silver, Ph.D.ProfessorDepartment of Psychological ScienceDepartment of Medicine Program in Public HealthUniversity of California, Irvine
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- Invisible threat (who is infected?)- Ambiguous threat (how bad will this get?)- Uncertain future (how long will this last?)- Need to use “social distancing” conflicts with natural
desire to connect with friends/family during stressful times
The Unique Case of COVID-19
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- Acknowledge that:- Uncertainty is stressful- Anxiety is appropriate
- Tell the truth: The situation may get worse before it gets better- But if we work together, we can save lives
- Minimizing the uncertainty is disingenuous
The Unique Case of COVID-19
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- People seek trusted information via the media- Rumors and misinformation appear on social media (not
vetted for accuracy)- Overexposure to media can amplify stress, with
downstream health effects- Enlist media as allies, not adversaries
The Media: A Double-Edged Sword
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- Conflicting political agendas and contradictory messages
- Fostering community conflict- Insincerity from one’s
leadersFactors Impeding Community Resilience
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- Enlist community support via strong social institutions (e.g., faith-based alliances)
- Promote shared values and community solidarity
- Bolster confidence in trustworthy authorities (e.g., health professionals fighting the disease on the front lines)
Maximizing Community Resilience
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- Recognize that anxiety is contagious, but so is compassion….
- Encourage positive community outcomes (e.g., altruistic behavior, social cohesion, volunteerism)
MaximizingCommunity Resilience
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Roxane Cohen Silver, Ph.D.Department of Psychological ScienceUniversity of California, Irvine
[email protected]://faculty.sites.uci.edu/rsilver/
For further information
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QUESTIONS?
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RESOURCESHow leaders can maximize trust and minimize stress during the COVID-19 pandemicON.APA.ORG/COVID-19-LEADERSHIP
Seven crucial research findings that can help people deal with COVID-19ON.APA.ORG/7-FINDINGS-COVID19