using the land use in central indiana (luci) models in transportation planning
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Using the Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) Models in Transportation Planning. John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis. Land Use and Transportation. Land use and travel are interrelated Land use affects travel behavior - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Using the Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) Models in Transportation Planning
John R. OttensmannCenter for Urban Policy and the Environment
Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Land Use and Transportation
Land use and travel are interrelated Land use affects travel behavior Transportation system affects land use
change For planning, interested in both
Future urban development effect on travel, performance of planned improvements
Effect of planned improvements on urban development
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Family of Urban Land Use Simulation Models
LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model
LUCI/T Model luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Central Indiana
Implementation luci2 Indiana Statewide Model
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
LUCI (Land Use in Central Indiana) Model
Model simulating conversion of land to urban use in 44-county region in Central Indiana
Uses data on urban land derived from LandSat satellite imagery
Simulates development for 17,369 mile-square grid cells
Uses employment data for 320 ZIP code areas
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Predictors of Probability of Urban Development
Accessibility to employment (using distance)
Availability of water and sewer Distance to interstates and 4-lane
highways Level of urban development in area Urban development in prior period ISTEP scores for school district
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Accessibility to Employment
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Simulating Development Driven by forecast of population
growth for entire region Simulates in 5-year increments Predicts probability of development
and density for grid cells Adjusts probabilities to accommodate
forecast population growth
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Provision for Alternative Development Scenarios
LUCI (and its successors) provide for simulation of alternative development scenarios
Scenarios reflecting policy choices, including restrictions on development, utility expansion
Scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions regarding future development, including population growth, density and accessibility preferences
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Urban Development to 2040: Require Utilities vs. Current Trends
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
LUCI/T Model Developed for Central Indiana
Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study
9-county area surrounding Indianapolis
Uses travel times from travel demand model to calculate accessibility
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives
Simulations to 2025, 2040 Baseline: existing and planned
transportation improvements Maximum change: 360º
circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt)
Use of LUCI/T to forecast development for 2025 travel demand model
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025
Baseline (Minimum Change) Maximum Change
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts
Urban 2025 Baseline0 - 0.10.1 - 0.30.3 - 0.50.5 - 0.70.7 - 1
Difference Baseline and Maximum-0.005 - -0.004-0.004 - -0.002-0.002 - 0.0020.002 - 0.0040.004 - 0.009
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Possible Reasons for Small Differences In general, the periphery of significant
urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040)
Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt
Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
General-purpose urban simulation model
Can separately simulate residential and employment-related development
Can simulate employment growth
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model
Models can be implemented for different areas…
With different datasets… Using regular or irregular simulation
zones (including TAZs)… Using distances or travel times… For models of varying complexity Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in luci2
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 Central Indiana Implementation
Implementation for 44-county Central Indiana region
Separately simulates residential and employment-related development
Simulates employment growth in 320 ZIP code areas
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 Current Trends Scenario
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 Indiana Statewide Model
Simulates residential and employment-related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model
Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs
Uses travel times from travel demand model
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
luci2 Indiana Statewide Model
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Features of luci2 Indiana Statewide Model
Uses travel times for INDOT travel demand model to calculate accessibilities
Primary driver of residential development is accessibility to employment change
Can use INDOT population and employment forecasts
Can forecast local service employment
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model
Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model
Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005
Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times
New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010
Process continues to 2030
luci2 Urban Simulation Model
More Information LUCI Website:
www.luci.urbancenter.iupui.edu
John Ottensmann