using systems thinking to understand the drivers of
TRANSCRIPT
Using Systems Thinking To Understand the Drivers of
Brucellosis Transmission in Jordan
1. Abstract:
Brucellosis disease leads to a significant production loss in ruminants and febrile disease in human in several places around the world
particularly Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In Jordan, Brucellosis is endemic but has been increasing in the past few years. However, the
only focus of the control programs is primarily the vaccination of livestock. The aim of this project is to understand the dynamic drivers of
brucellosis transmission to explore policy options that aid in controlling human brucellosis in Jordan. Method: System dynamics modelling
approach was used to create a causal loop diagram and a stock and flow model that suggest the dynamics of brucellosis transmission in Jordan.
The model includes the age-structured “Susceptible-Infected-Vaccinated” sheep population model and “Susceptible-Infected-Recovered”
human population model. Results: the model suggests four different policies to control brucellosis in Jordan other than vaccination; Sheep
trade market restrictions; testing and culling infected sheep; increase farmers’ visits to the ministry of agriculture’s veterinary clinics and
increase awareness of farmers. Conclusion: Current data suggest that other policies should be considered to help authorities to control
brucellosis transmission. Collaboration between stakeholders is essential to achieve better outcomes. More research is needed to assess the
implications of the proposed policies.
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Human Brucellosis cases and incidence rate in Jordan (2004-2017)
cases (MoH) Incidence rate/100,000
Phase 1
Problem Identification & structuring
Phase 2
Causal loop modelling
Understand behaviour of system
Phase 3
Dynamic modelling
Simulation & quantification
Phase 4
Scenario analysis, evaluation and policy
implication
Research question 1
What is the problem?
Research question 2
Why the problem exist?
Research question 3
How can we manage the
problem?
Research question 4
What are the implication of
managing this problem?
Methods 1
Analysis of historical data
BOT Analysis, Literature review
Methods 2
Literature review, Semi-Interviews, Causal
Loop Diagram, Archetype
Methods 3
Stock & flow Model development, testing,
sensitivity analysis.
Methods 4
Scenario analysis, policy evaluation
2. The Methods
Figure 1: Figure: Human Brucellosis cases and incidence rate (per 100,000) in Jordan (2004-2017)
3. The Results:
Figure 3: stakeholder’s Map of brucellosis transmission in Jordan
3.3 The Causal Loop Diagram
Figure 4: Presentation of overall qualitative data analysis process, participants map and Causal loop diagram building.
3.2 Building the Causal Loop Diagram
Figure 5: Combined causal loop diagram of brucellosis dynamics in Jordan.
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Reported Human brucellosis cases by the proposed policies
Current PolicyVacciantion Only
Trade (Buy&Sell)Restriction
Test & CullSheep
Increase visits toVeterinary clinics
IncreaseAwareness
CombinedCull and trade restrictions
Figure 6: Combined Stock and flow diagrams (The Model) of brucellosis dynamics in Jordan.
Figure 7: Proposed policies for Brucellosis control and overall reported human cases per 100,000.
Figure 2: Brief description of the research method
3.1 Stakeholder Analysis: The Map
3.4 The Model (Stock and Flow Diagrams)
3.5 Behaviour over time graph of reported brucellosis cases by the proposed policies
References:
1. Musallam, II, Abo-Shehada MN, Guitian J. Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Associated with Brucellosis in Livestock Owners in Jordan. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015;93(6):1148-55.
2. Beauvais W, Musallam I, Guitian J. Vaccination control programs for multiple livestock host species: an age-stratified, seasonal transmission model for brucellosis control in endemic
settings. Parasites & vectors. 2016;9:55.
3. Musallam, II, Abo-Shehada M, Omar M, Guitian J. Cross-sectional study of brucellosis in Jordan: Prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in small ruminants and cattle. Preventive
veterinary medicine. 2015;118(4):387-96.
4. Sterman JD. Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill; 2000.
5. Franc KA, Krecek RC, Hasler BN, Arenas-Gamboa AM. Brucellosis remains a neglected disease in the developing world: a call for interdisciplinary action. BMC public health.
2018;18(1):125.
6. Agriculture-Jordan Mo. MoA Jordan 2018 [Available from: http://moa.gov.jo/ar-jo/home.aspx. Accessed
7. Zhou L, Fan M, Hou Q, Jin Z, Sun X. Transmission dynamics and optimal control of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia of China. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE.
2018;15(2):543-67.
Acknowledgements:
I would like to appreciate the great effort put into this poster design by my lovely wife, Nermin, you are the strength that keeps me going. Additionally, I would like to thank
the great inspiration, Danielle Currie for the continuous support and guidance in this project. Finally, I would like to appreciate and thank Simon Reid and Carl Smith for
their guidance throughout this project.
H.Taha1, S.Reid2, C.Smith3, J. Durham4, D.Currie5 (1,2,3,4 The University Of Queensland 5 The Sax institute)