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using gem’s tools and datasets for calculating risk across the globe

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Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe Vitor Silva Global Earthquake Model Foundation @GEMwrld #10NCEE

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What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

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Page 1: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Vitor SilvaGlobal Earthquake Model Foundation

@GEMwrld #10NCEE

Page 2: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is new about the OpenQuake-engine?

• Free, opensource and publically available,

• Combines hazard and risk in a single software

• Allows scenario and probabilistic risk analysis

• Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties

• Allows calculations at different scales

• Can be run on a laptop or cloud of computers

• Methodologies are fully documented

• Compatible with tools for the development of

hazard and vulnerability models

• Various hazard, vulnerability and exposure models

compatible with this tool

Page 3: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk expertRisk Assessment

Page 4: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

Page 5: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

Page 6: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

Models

Page 7: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Page 8: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

ModelsTools

Page 9: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Page 10: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Inventory Data Capture Tools (Android tool)

Page 11: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Status of the GEM Vulnerability Database

Page 12: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Tools to develop fragility and vulnerability models

Page 13: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Tools to develop fragility and vulnerability models

Page 14: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Page 15: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Exposure model for Turkey

Page 16: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Sets of fragility functions for Turkey

Page 17: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Model

Seismic hazard map 475 years

Page 18: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Average annualized economic loss

max 8.3M $

İstanbul

Vanİzmir

Ankara

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Page 19: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Scenario-based loss/damage assessment

Ground motion field Loss map

Page 20: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

ModelsTools

Page 21: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

ModelsTools

Expertise

Page 22: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Page 23: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Technical reports, scientific publications, books.

Page 24: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

What is GEM doing to facilitate risk assessment at a global scale?

Risk Assessment

Risk expert

Data

ModelsTools

Expertise

Page 25: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Global Seismic Risk Assessment

Page 26: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Global Seismic Risk Assessment

Population distribution by LandScan (2012), GRUMP, GPW

Page 27: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Global Seismic Risk Assessment

PAGER Empirical Vulnerability model(fatalities and economic losses)

Page 28: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Global Seismic Risk Assessment

Page 29: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Global Seismic Risk Assessment

-2,0

-1,0

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1,0

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3,0

4,0

5,0G

row

th ra

te

Sub-Saharan Africa Urban Sub-Saharan Africa Rural

Northern Europe Rural Northern Europe Urban

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

Page 30: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Damiano Monelli, Marco Pagani, Rui Pinho, GraemeWeatherill, Paolo Bazzurro, Mine Demircioglu, Miriam Colombi, Cuneyt Tuzun,Xiaoxuan Zhang, Andrea Cerisara, Luis Rodrigues, Sevgi Ozcebe, ChiaraCasotto, Mario Ordaz, Lars Butler, Mustafa Erdik, Matteo Nastasi, Keith Porter,David Lourenço, Robin Spence, Joanne White, Paul Henshaw, Ross Stein,Jillian St.Bernard, Ming Lee, Joshua Mckenty, Dirk Hollnack, Mario Marques,Michele Calvi, Martin Kaser, Alexandros Lalas, Andrew King, Nicolas Luco,Anselm Smolka, Fabrice Cotton, Alia Juman, Karin Sesetyan, Alberto Monti,Luis Martins, Yaver Kamer, Stefano Parolai, Catalina Yepes, Nick Horspool,Marco Furinghetti, Ricardo Monteiro, Massimiliano Pittore, Ken Hao, CeciliaNievas, Anirudh Rao, Christopher Burton, Jack Baker, Luis Sousa, DimitriosVamvatsikos, Omar Cardona, Domenico Giardini, John Bevington, MarcWieland, Emily So, Dina D’Ayla, Abdelghani Meslen, Luis Sousa, AnneKiremidjian, James Brown, Bijan Khazai, Chiara Pigoli, Tiziana Rossetto,Damian Grant, Marjorie Greene, Kishor Jaiswal, Svetlana Brzev, DanieleVigano, David Wald, Gloria Maria Estrada, Michele Simionato, David Lallement,Amod Dixit, Mary Lou Zoback, Hugo Yepes, Ioanna Ioannou, Paolo Franchin,Paolo Gamba, Jairo Valcarcel, Ole Hanekop, Ben Wyss, Andy Thompson,Julian Bommer Iunio Iervolino John Scheneider Conrad Lindholm Carlos

Page 31: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley, Damiano Monelli, Marco Pagani, Rui Pinho, GraemeWeatherill, Paolo Bazzurro, Mine Demircioglu, Miriam Colombi, Cuneyt Tuzun,Xiaoxuan Zhang, Andrea Cerisara, Luis Rodrigues, Sevgi Ozcebe, ChiaraCasotto, Mario Ordaz, Lars Butler, Mustafa Erdik, Matteo Nastasi, Keith Porter,David Lourenço, Robin Spence, Joanne White, Paul Henshaw, Ross Stein,Jillian St.Bernard, Ming Lee, Joshua Mckenty, Dirk Hollnack, Mario Marques,Michele Calvi, Martin Kaser, Alexandros Lalas, Andrew King, Nicolas Luco,Anselm Smolka, Fabrice Cotton, Alia Juman, Karin Sesetyan, Alberto Monti,Luis Martins, Yaver Kamer, Stefano Parolai, Catalina Yepes, Nick Horspool,Marco Furinghetti, Ricardo Monteiro, Massimiliano Pittore, Ken Hao, CeciliaNievas, Anirudh Rao, Christopher Burton, Jack Baker, Luis Sousa, DimitriosVamvatsikos, Omar Cardona, Domenico Giardini, John Bevington, MarcWieland, Emily So, Dina D’Ayla, Abdelghani Meslen, Luis Sousa, AnneKiremidjian, James Brown, Bijan Khazai, Chiara Pigoli, Tiziana Rossetto,Damian Grant, Marjorie Greene, Kishor Jaiswal, Svetlana Brzev, DanieleVigano, David Wald, Gloria Maria Estrada, Michele Simionato, David Lallement,Amod Dixit, Mary Lou Zoback, Hugo Yepes, Ioanna Ioannou, Paolo Franchin,Paolo Gamba, Jairo Valcarcel, Ole Hanekop, Ben Wyss, Andy Thompson,Julian Bommer Iunio Iervolino John Scheneider Conrad Lindholm Carlos

Page 32: Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Risk Across the Globe

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org

http://www.globalearthquakemodel.org/

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