using food purchasing data for population level ... · © kantar worldpanel 30,000 31,000 32,000...
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© Kantar Worldpanel
Using Food Purchasing Data For
Population Level Surveillance
Giles Quick – Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
fats
energy (kJ, kcal)
carbohydrates
protein
sugars
saturates fibre
salt
SINCE 2005 NUTRITIONAL VALUES COMBINED WITH PURCHASE
VOLUME TO PROVIDE NUTRIENT VOLUMES, TRENDS AND SOURCE
© Kantar Worldpanel
HAS CHANGED
© Kantar Worldpanel
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
Feb-0
7
May
-07
Aug
-07
Nov
-07
Feb-0
8
May
-08
Aug
-08
Nov
-08
Feb-0
9
May
-09
Aug
-09
Nov
-09
Feb-1
0
May
-10
Aug
-10
Nov
-10
Feb-1
1
Millions of servings of food chosen for health
In Home Consumption
12 m/e
HEALTH AND THE RECESSION
HEALTHY CHOICES CORRELATED WITH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
© Kantar Worldpanel
Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing
52 w/e 26 Dec 2010
0.5
3.5
1.4
1.8
2.8
3.2
3.6
2.5
2.7
3.1
2.8
9.1
1.1
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Hholds
Spend
Volume (Nut)
Packs
Energy
Protein
Fibre
Carbohydrate
Sugars
Fat
Saturates
Sodium
Sodium excl
SALT GROWTH BEHIND OVERALL GROCERY VOLUMES NUTRITIONAL VALUES: YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE
% YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE
© Kantar Worldpanel
Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing
52 w/e 26 Dec 2010
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN SALT (EXCLUDING TABLE SALT) OVER
LAST FEW YEARS BUT NOW SLOWING Based on Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink
50,000,000
52,000,000
54,000,000
56,000,000
58,000,000
60,000,000
62,000,000
64,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sodium exc Table SaltKgs
Kg’s
Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing
© Kantar Worldpanel
Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing
52 w/e 26 Dec 2010
24.1
11.9
8
7.1
6.7
5.9
4.5
4.5
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.21.5
Salt
Dairy Products
Bread
Savoury Home Cking excFresh Meat
Total Frozen
Morning GoodsCanned Goods
Chilled Convenience exc RM
Total Milk
Frozen Prepared FoodsTable Sauce+Condiment
Yellow Fats
Total CheeseBiscuits
Take Home Savouries
Breakfast Cereals
Chilled Ready Meals
52 w/e 27 Dec 09
52 w/e 26 Dec 10
THE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN TABLE SALT PURCHASING (BAD
WEATHER INFLUENCED) REDUCING THE CONTRIBUTION OF OTHER
CATEGORIES SUCH AS DAIRY AND BREAD
© Kantar Worldpanel
CAN CHANGE
© Kantar Worldpanel
0.19g 0.90g
0.44g
WRAPPED BREAD CHOICE EXISTS
THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE
SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN &
ACTION
SALT CONTENT PER 100g
21%
79%
Reduced salt over 4 years
© Kantar Worldpanel
0.1g 9.0g
2.2g
SATURATED FAT CONTENT PER 100g
27%
73%
Reduced sat. fat over 4 years
CHILLED READY MEALS - EVEN MORE CHOICE EXISTS
THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN & ACTION
© Kantar Worldpanel
39
13.9
9.9
8.3
8.3
8.2
6.5
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.3
2
1.9
1.81.4
Dairy Products
Yellow Fats
Total Cheese
Total Milk
Fresh Meat
Biscuits
Take Home Confectionery
Ambient Cakes+Pastries
Chilled Convenience exc RM
Frozen Confectionery
Frozen Prepared Foods
Other Dairy
Savoury Home Cooking
Morning Goods
Hens Eggs
Take Home Savouries
Chilled Ready Meals
52 w/e 27 Dec 09
52 w/e 26 Dec 10
DAIRY CONTRIBUTING FOR 1/3RD OF ALL SATURATES BOUGHT SATURATES: % OF CATEGORIES
© Kantar Worldpanel
SALT PURCHASE RELATIVELY UNDER PROMOTED – BUT SAT
FATS ARE AHEAD OF OVERALL GROCERY PROMOTED LEVELS
Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing
52 w/e 31 October 2010
% Nutrients sold on Promotion
35
36
35 35 35 35
34
31
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Total SalesSaturates
Energy Fibre
CarbsSugars
Protein Sodium
% o
n p
rom
otio
n
© Kantar Worldpanel
CROSS CATEGORY SWITCHING IS HARD TO DRIVE
1%
55% Out of home consumption source KWP Usage
© Kantar Worldpanel
104.5
102.2
100.9
96.4 96
Sodium Saturates Calories Fibre Achievement
of 5-a-day
A LESS AFFLUENT NUTRITIONAL UNDERCLASS EXISTS DE social class indexed Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink Yr to Dec 2010 on total GB
© Kantar Worldpanel
WILL CHANGE
© Kantar Worldpanel
MANUFACTURERS HAVE RESPONDED POSITIVELY
REFORMULATION ACTIVITY IN UK BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET
Based on Breakfast Cereals skus sold in the 3 months to Dec 2010
50% of current Breakfast
Cereals SKU’s have reduced sodium levels between Dec 2006 and 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
-14.8
-8.6
-6.3
-4.6
-4.4
-3.2
-2.9
-2.2
-2.1
Breakfast Cereals
Cheese
Chilled Ready Meals
Table Sauces &Condiments
Canned Goods
Chilled Conv exc RM
Bread
Savoury Home Cooking
Savouries CSNs
MANY CATEGORIES SHOWING SALT DECLINES VIA
REFORMULATION/ MIX
Take Home purchasing Yr to Dec 2010 vs 2008: % chg in Sodium excluding market growth
Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing
Based on Salt 2 year volume % chg mix/ reformulation only
© Kantar Worldpanel
REFORMULATION WORKS!
Two thirds
Of change is typically driven from
reformulation rather than
consumer switching
Salt reduction
© Kantar Worldpanel
WIN ,WIN
IDENTIFY AND INNOVATE
Worse for customers (*wellbeing)
Better for manufacturer £
Better for customers (wellbeing)
Worse for manufacturer £
GOVERNMENT PUSH
RESPOND
AT AFFORDABLE COST
LOSE, LOSE
DIVEST, REFORMULATE OR
COMMERCIAL TURNROUND
NO HEALTH ROLE
IDENTIFY ROLE IN
DIET
© Kantar Worldpanel
Largest 100 Food and Drink Markets: Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category, based on nutrient profiling scores
Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Healthier %change
Re
st o
f m
arke
t %
chan
ge
Healthy declines
Chilled Juice/Drinks,
Ethnic Ingredients, Frozen Pizza,
Baked Beans, Cheese, Breakfast
Cereals, Ambient Cakes
ONLY HALF (55%) OF THE TOP 100 FOOD AND DRINK MARKETS
HAVE FASTER GROWTH THAN AVERAGE FOR THE HEALTHIEST 20%
Healthy growth
Chilled and Frozen Ready Meals
Canned Veg, Fresh Sausages,
Yogurt Drinks, Biscuits Bars
Bread
© Kantar Worldpanel
CHILLED READY MEALS IS ONE MARKET WHERE HEALTH(IER)
LINES ARE PERFORMING WELL Based on Chilled Ready Meals Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category based on nutrient profiling scores
Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11
5.2
24.5
8.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
The Rest (80%)
Healthiest (20%)
Total Market
% SPEND CHANGE
© Kantar Worldpanel
HAS CHANGED CAN CHANGE WILL CHANGE
Changing cross
category habits is difficult
& slow but an important
long term ambition
Wide intra-category
nutritional choice exists
but consumer
awareness may
be an issue
Reformulation is a major
means to positive
nutritional change
& in the UK is the
major driver of success
over the past 4 years.
Healthy choices are
moving up
consumer’s agenda
– but choice is correlated
with confidence