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MRPC Regional Energy Model 1

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 2

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 3

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 5

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 6

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 7

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)&&($!*)(!'*P&!0&,-''&)(*%+-)$Nj!YUZ!?0-'!%4+$!20*)%!V-4)!G/'&!Y5=;B!;1*))+)2!*)(!

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3-0!%4+$!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-<&,%!Y8:;Z![*$!%-!(&9&1-.!*!"#$%&'!K#)*'+,$!,-'./%&0!$+'/1*%+-)!

Page 8: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 8

'-(&1!%-!3-0&,*$%!%4&!&)&02#!(&'*)($!3-0!%4&!5-)%*,4/$&%%!0&2+-)!/)(&0!*!9*0+&%#!-3!$+'/1*%+-)$!

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[+%4!iE+'+%$!%-!%4&!O0-[%4j!(-)&!>#!D4&!5*$$*,4/$&%%$!8)$%+%/%&!-3!D&,4)-1-2#!Y58DZNYRZ!58D![*$!

*$P&(!>#!%4&!B1/>!-3!=-'&!*)(!7/0&1+-!;&,,&+!%-!/$&!$#$%&'!(#)*'+,$!%-!3-0&,*$%!%4&!&)&02#!$&,%-0$\!

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9%+0$,*"+/!.0-.-$&(!>#!5N!l+)2!G/>>&0%!*!.&%0-1&/'!2&-1-2+$%N!YSZ!H*+11![+%4!4+$!,-11&*2/&$!1*%&0!

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%0*)$+%+-)!*)(!%--P!%4&$&!*)(!-%4&0!3*,%-0$!+)%-!*,,-/)%!+)!%4&!'-(&1N!YeZ!YRZ(73%&0!%4+$]!D-'!

?+((*'*)!YUffdZ!+'.0-9&(!-)!"%&0'*)\$!'-(&1!,*11+)2!4+$!'-(&1!?=CC!Y?&&(>*,Pb=+,4!C)&02#!

C,-)-'#!'-(&1ZN!YfZ!D4+$!'-(&1!+)%&20*%&(!&_%&0)*1+%+&$!'-(&1+)2!Y&N2N!,1+'*%+,!,4*)2&$ZN!!7$!4*$!

>&&)!$4-[)!*>-9&!"#$%&'!K#)*'+,$!4*$!>&&)![+(&1#!/$&(!*)(!0&3+)&(!-9&0!%4&!#&*0$!+)!&)&02#!

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Page 9: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 9

<1$+%&$3%+(=+>1+?(

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Page 10: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 10

• C9*1/*%&Q!D-!+)$/0&!.1*))&(!2-*1$![&0&!*,,-'.1+$4&(N!!

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*4&*(!3-0!%4&+0!0&2+-)\$!&)&02#!)&&($]!>#!)-%!-)1#!,0&*%+)2!*)!&)&02#!.1*)]!>/%!%4&#!*1$-![*)%!%-!

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Page 11: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 11

%4*%!+$!%4&#!i*0+$&!30-'![+%4-/%j!-0!-/%$+(&!%4&!'-(&1!>-/)(*0#]!YURZ![&!/$&(!%4+$!i$,&)*0+-!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 12

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)/'&0+,*1!(*%*NNNN!@4+1&!(*%*!*0&!9&0#!4&1.3/1]!-)&!+$!-3%&)!3*,&(![+%4!*!(#)*'+,!.0->1&'!+)!

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4-[&9&0]!%4*%!%4&!'-(&1&0!-0!%4&!,1+&)%!P)-[$!%4&!(#)*'+,!>&4*9+-0!-3!+)%&0&$%![+%4-/%!

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Page 13: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 13

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./>1+,!4*(!(&$+0&(N!V*#!@N!?-00&$%&0]!;0-3&$$-0!-3!5*)*2&'&)%!K+0&,%-0!X!58D!"#$%&'!K#)*'+,$!

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Page 14: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 14

$&0+-/$!.0->1&'![*$!%4*%!%4&!'-(&1![*$!)-%!*,,&$$+>1&]!*)(!+)!%/0)![*$!)-%!/$&(!>#!%4&!,-''+%%&&!

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&)2+)&&0]!?-00&$%&0!%--P![4*%!4&!1&*0)&(!*>-/%!$#$%&'$]!*)(!*..1+&(!%4*%!%-!&9&0#(*#!P+)($!-3!

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Page 15: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 15

(#)*'+,$!+$!%4&!/$&!-3!3&&(>*,P!1--.$N!

Table 1. System Dynamics Symbols!

Name Description

Stock A stock represents things in the model that can

accumulate. The stock will rise and drop

depending on its flows, and will remain constant

while in equilibrium.

Flow A flow is the rate of change of a stock. Inflows

add to a stock, out flows take away from the

stock. Equilibrium occurs when inflows to all

stocks are equal to the outflows.

Influence

Arrow

The blue arrows in the model represent when

one variable, a, directly influences the current

value of another, b.

!

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Page 16: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 16

A/%31-[!$%-.$N!!8%!+$!/.!%-!%4&!'-(&1&0!%-!(&%&0'+)&!%4&!*..0-.0+*%&!0&1*%+-)$4+.$!-3!*11!%4&!9*0+*>1&$!

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Page 17: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 17

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!

Page 18: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 18

!"#$%&'KK'6.$7.1'8++9':".#%.;'

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Page 19: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 19

73%&0!%4&!,-),1/$+-)!-3!%4+$![-0P$4-.!*!(-,/'&)%!-3!%4&!,-'.1&%&!)-%&$!%*P&)!*%!%4&![-0P$4-.!

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Page 20: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 20

9*0+*>1&$N!!

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Page 21: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 21

DT(!$$%&'$1,/(,-($L+(%+21,/(O(?L&$(5%&?#(S+,S*+($,($L+(&%+&Q(

=&/R1/2OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO( D( G( U( V(

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GT(!$$%&'$1>+/+##($,("3#1/+##+#(&/5(',/#38+%#((

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%-!%4&!0&2+-)N!D4+$!>0-/24%!%-!1+24%!%4*%!.0+,&![*$!>#!3*0!%4&!'-$%!+'.-0%*)%!3*,%-0!%-!>/$+)&$$&$]!

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>&,*/$&!%4&!.0+9*%&!$&,%-0!+$!.0-3+%!$&&P+)2!*)(!)&&($!%-!3+)(!3&0%+1&!'*0P&%$!%-!$%*#!*31-*%N!71$-]!%4&!

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,-)$+(&0*%+-)!%4*%![*$!>0-/24%!/.!*)(!$/>$&J/&)%1#!+),1/(&(![*$!%4&!%4-/24%!-3!*,,&$$!%-!

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Page 22: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 22

3&&(>*,P!30-'!%4&!*%%&)(&&$N!D4+$!'&&%+)2!*2*+)!*..1+&(![4*%!-%4&0!'-(&1&0$!4*9&!(-)&![+%4!

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-3!%4&!1*02&!*'-/)%!-3!+)3-0'*%+-)!%4*%![*$!>&+)2!,-11&,%&(!-9&0!%4&!1+3&!-3!%4&!.0-<&,%!*!(*%*>*$&!

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+%N!!

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• E*)(!I$&Q!"&&!?+2/0&!>&1-[!

!

Page 23: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 23

Table 2 MRPC Total Land Use

!

73%&0!*11!%4&!(*%*!3-0!&*,4!%-[)![*$!,-11&,%&(!%4&!%-[)$![&0&!*((&(!%-2&%4&0!%-!2+9&!*!%-%*1!

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%0*)$.-0%*%+-)!(*%*!*)(!-%4&0!&_%0*!(*%*N!C)&02#!,-)$/'.%+-)!(*%*![*$!,-11&,%&(!3-0!%4&!0&2+-)![*$!

-02*)+W&(!>#!&)&02#!%#.&N!D0*)$.-0%*%+-)!(*%*![*$!2*%4&0&(!%-!$&&!%4&!)/'>&0!-3!9&4+,1&$!*)(!

&$%+'*%&!%4&!,-)$/'.%+-)!-3!2*$-1+)&N!?-0!%4&!&)&02#!/$&!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!$%*%&!*9&0*2&$![&0&!/$&(!3-0!

%4&!'-$%!.*0%]!>/%!*%!$-'&!.-+)%!)*%+-)*1!*9&0*2&$![&0&!-)1#!->%*+)*>1&N!D4&!3/&1!/$&!3-0!%4&!0&2+-)\$!

0&$+(&)%+*1!,-)$/'.%+-)![*$!->%*+)&(!%40-/24!%4&!,&)$/$]!>/%!3-0!>/$+)&$$&$!3/&1!/$&![*$!)-%!1-,*%&(!

3-0!%4&!5=;B!0&2+-)N!!

D4&!(*%*!$%-0&(!+)!%4&!(*%*>*$&![*$!0&%0+&9&(!30-'!%4&!3-11-[+)2!$-/0,&$Q!5=;B]!%4&!IN"N!

B&)$/$!L/0&*/]!IN"N!C)&02#!8)3-0'*%+-)!7('+)+$%0*%+-)]!5*$$*,4/$&%%$!K+9+$+-)!-3!C)&02#!=&$-/0,&$]!

Page 24: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 24

IN"N!K&.*0%'&)%!-3!C)&02#]!*)(!C_&,/%+9&!A33+,&!-3!C)&02#!*)(!C)9+0-)'&)%*1!733*+0$N!D4&!$-/0,&$!-3!

&*,4!%*>!+)!%4&!(*%*>*$&!*0&!1-,*%&(!+)!%4&!i"-/0,&$j!%*>!-3!%4&!(*%*>*$&!-0!*%!%4&!>-%%-'!-3!&*,4!

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5*$$*,4/$&%%$!>#!*!@;8!$%/(&)%]!l*%0+)*!G/11N!YUfZ!!D4+$!$&,%-0!3&*%/0&$!*!a!$%-,P!*2+)2!,4*+)!%4*%!

0&.0&$&)%$!%4&!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)!>0-P&)!(-[)!>#!*2&!20-/.$!iTbUfj]!iRTbaaj]!iaSbcaj]!*)(!%4&!icSsj!

20-/.N!!D4&!$%-,P!*)(!31-[!$%0/,%/0&!-3!%4&!*2+)2!,4*+)!>&2+)$![+%4!%4&!+)31-[!-3!L+0%4$!%-!%4&!$%-,P!-3!

TbUfN!!711!%4&!>+0%4$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!-9&0!%4&!$.*)!-3!-)&!#&*0!*,,/'/1*%&!+)!%4&!TbUf!$%-,PN!!D4+)P+)2!

>*,P!%-!%4&!>*%4%/>!*)*1-2#]!%4&!>+0%4$!*0&!%4&!3*/,&%!*)(!%4&!$%-,P!iTbUfj!+$!%4&!>*%4%/>N!!7$![&!

.0-20&$$!3/0%4&0!*1-)2!%4&!*2+)2!,4*+)]![&!)&_%!$&&!*)!-/%31-[!30-'!%4&!iTbUfj!$%-,P!,*11&(!

i5*%/0+)2jN!!D4+$!-/%31-[!+$!*)*1-2-/$!%-!%4&!(0*+)!-3!%4&!>*%4%/>N!!7$!,*)!>&!$&&)!+)!%4&!(+*20*']!

5*%/0+)2!+$!)-%!-)1#!%4&!A/%31-[!Y(0*+)Z!-3!%4&!iTbUfj!"%-,P!Y>*%4%/>Z]!>/%!+%!*1$-!>&,-'&$!%4&!+)31-[!

Y3*/,&%Z!%-!%4&!iRTbaaj!*2&!20-/.]![4+,4!+$!%4&!)&_%!"%-,P!+)!%4&!$&J/&),&N!!D4&!*2+)2!,4*+)!,-)%+)/&$!

[+%4!%4&!-/%31-[!i72+)2j!>&,-'+)2!%4&!+)31-[!%-!%4&!iaSbcaj!*2&!20-/.]!3-11-[&(!>#!%4&!-/%31-[!

i=&%+0+)2j!31-[+)2!+)%-!%4&!1*$%!*2&!20-/.!$%-,P!icSsj!%4*%!%4&)!4*$!%4&!-/%31-[!iC1(&0!K&*%4$jN!!!

@4+1&!%4&!>+0%4!0*%&!*)(!%4&!(&*%4!0*%&![+11!*33&,%!%4&!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)]!%4&!'-$%!+'.-0%*)%!3*,%-0!%4*%!

(0+9&$!%-%*1!.-./1*%+-)!/.!-0!(-[)!0&1*%+9&!%-!%4+$!.0-<&,%!+$!%4&!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j!-3!%4&!

0&2+-)N!!D4*%!+$!%-!$*#!%4*%!+3!.&-.1&!.&0,&+9&]!-0!>&1+&9&!%4*%!*!0&2+-)!+$!.*0%+,/1*01#!*%%0*,%+9&n!%4&#!

[-/1(!%4&)!'+20*%&!%-!%4*%!0&2+-)N!!A)!%4&!-%4&0!4*)(!+3!.&-.1&!.&0,&+9&!*!0&2+-)!%-!>&!/)*%%0*,%+9&Q!

%4&#![-/1(!%4&)!'+20*%&!*[*#!30-'!%4*%!0&2+-)N!!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j!+$!(&%&0'+)&(!>#!%4&!

7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0]![4+,4![+11!>&!(+$,/$$&(!1*%&0!+)!%4+$!0&.-0%N!

Page 25: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 25

!

!"#$%&'KN':&;+#%.93",'=.%*'+>'*3&':&;+#%.93",'./0'?+$7"/#')&,*+%'

D4&!G-/$+)2!.*0%!-3!%4&!K&'-20*.4+,!*)(!G-/$+)2!"&,%-0!(&$,0+>&$!4-[!%4&!9*0+*>1&!

iG-/$+)2j!+'.*,%$!%4&!>&4*9+-0!-3!%4&!'-(&1N!!D4&!+)31-[!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!*(($!%-!%4&!$%-,P!

iG-/$+)2j]![4+1&!%4&!-/%31-[!iG-/$+)2!K&'-1+%+-)j!(0*+)$!%4&!iG-/$+)2j!$%-,P]!*1>&+%!*%!*!9&0#!1-[!

0*%&N!!iG-/$&!,-)$%0/,%+-)j!+$!(&%&0'+)&(!>#!$&9&0*1!3*,%-0$!%4*%!,-'>+)&!%-!$4-[!%4*%!.&-.1&!'-9&!

+)%-!*!0&2+-)!+3!%4&0&!+$!*>/)(*)%!4-/$+)2]!*)(!.&-.1&!'-9&!*[*#![4&)!4-/$+)2!+$!$,*0,&N!!G-/$&!

B-)$%0/,%+-)!+),0&*$&$![4&)!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j!+$!4+24]![4+,4!'&*)$!%4&0&!*0&!'-0&!

.&-.1&!(&'*)(+)2!4-/$+)2!%4*)!+$!*9*+1*>1&!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!!D4&!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!30-'!%4&!

K&'-20*.4+,!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!3&&($!+)%-!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j]!1+)P+)2!%4&!%[-!.*0%$!

%-2&%4&0N!!L/%!%4&0&!+$!</$%!$-!'/,4!1*)(!*9*+1*>1&!%-!>/+1(!-)!*)(!*$!1*)(!>&,-'&$!'-0&!*)(!'-0&!

$,*0,&]!%4&!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!0*%&![+11!(&,0&*$&N!!D4+$!+$!$&&)!+)!%4&!(+*20*'!*$!*!0&$/1%!-3!

=&$+(&)%+*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(!YE?AZ!3*,%-0&(![+%4!%4&!iG-/$+)2!E*)(!5/1%+.1+&0jN!!!

Page 26: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 26

!"#$%&'NO'?+$7"/#'=.%*'+>'*3&':&;+#%.93",'./0'?+$7"/#')&,*+%'

!

D-!>&%%&0!/)(&0$%*)(]!*)(!$&&!%4&!(#)*'+,!+)31/&),&$!-3!%4&!K&'-20*.4+,!*)(!G-/$+)2!"&,%-0]!

+%!+$!4&1.3/1!%-!1--P!*%!*!,*/$*1!1--.!(+*20*'N!!!D4&!B*$/*1!E--.!K+*20*'!YBEKZ!+)!?+2/0&!S!+11/$%0*%&$!%4&!

'*<-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.!30-'!%4+$!$&,%-0!*)(!4-[!+%!+$!1+)P&(!%-!%4&!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!$&,%-0N!!!

!

!"#$%&'N('6.$7.1'8++9':".#%.;'B68:C'

!

E--P+)2!*%!%4&!K&'-20*.4+,!*)(!G-/$+)2!$&,%-0!30-'!%4+$!.&0$.&,%+9&!+%!,*)!>&!$&&)!%4*%!%4&!

iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!+)31/&),&$!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j]![4+,4!+)31/&),&$!%4&!iG-/$+)2j]![4+,4!

+)31/&),&$!%4&!i;&0,&+9&(!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$j]![4+,4!%4&)!3&&($!>*,P!%-!+)31/&),&!%4&!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)jN!!

D4&!.1/$!$+2)!*%!%4&!*00-[!4&*($!$+2)+3#!%4*%]!+3!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!+),0&*$&$]!%4&)!%4&!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!

Page 27: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 27

G-/$&!=*%+-j!+),0&*$&$N!!7)(]!+3!iD-%*1!;-./1*%+-)j!(&,0&*$&$]!%4&)!iG-/$&4-1(!%-!G-/$&!=*%+-j!

(&,0&*$&$]!-0!+)!-%4&0![-0($!'-9&$!+)!%4&!$*'&!(+0&,%+-)N!!D4&0&!*0&!*1$-!'+)-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.$!+)!%4+$!

$&,%-0N!!D4&$&!*0&!$&&)!%40-/24-/%!%4&!'-(&1!*$!*!20-[%4!0*%&!'/1%+.1+&(!>#!*!$%-,PN!!8)!%4&!

K&'-20*.4+,!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!%4&0&!+$!*!'+)-0!1--.!,-)%*+)+)2!L+0%4$!*)(!;-./1*%+-)]!*)(!+)!%4&!

G-/$+)2!.*0%!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!%4&0&!+$!%4&!'+)-0!3&&(>*,P!1--.!,-)%*+)+)2!%4&!31-[!iG-/$&!B-)$%0/,%+-)j!

*)(!%4&!iG-/$+)2j!$%-,PN!!D4&$&!'+)-0!1--.$!(0+9&!%4&!'-(&1!3-0!.-$+%+9&!20-[%4]!>/%!*$!#-/!,*)!$&&!

30-'!?+2/0&!c!%4&#!*0&!>*1*),&(!>#!)&2*%+9&!1--.$]!%4/$!1+'+%+)2!%4&!.-$+%+9&!20-[%4!%4*%!%4&$&!'+)-0!

1--.$!+'.*0%N!!A9&0*11!%4&!'+)-0!1--.$!(-!)-%!,-)%0+>/%&!+)!*)!+)%&0&$%+)2![*#!%-!%4&!-9&0*11!(#)*'+,$!

-3!%4&!'-(&1N!!?+2/0&!c!>&1-[!$4-[$!.-$+%+9&!*)(!)&2*%+9&!'+)-0!1--.$N!!;-$+%+9&!1--.$!(0+9&!%4&!

20-[%4!+)!%4&!'-(&1]![4+1&!)&2*%+9&!1--.$!1+'+%!%4&!20-[%4N!

!

!

!"#$%&'N5'E"/+%'>&&04.,-'8++97F'=+7"*"G&'./0'H&#.*"G&'B4.1./,"/#C'

<&/5(N#+(6+'$,%(

@&!,4-$&!%-!/$&!%4&!$*'&!'-(&1!$%0/,%/0&!30-'!G/11\$!"%&01+)2!'-(&1!3-0!%4&!E*)(!I$&!"&,%-0!

Page 28: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 28

-3!-/0!5=;B!'-(&1N!!@&!>&1+&9&!4&0!$%0/,%/0&![-/1(!>&!&J/*11#!$/+%&(!3-0!-/0!0&2+-)*1!'-(&1!*$!+%!

[*$!3-0!%4&!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1N!YUfZ!

D4&!E*)(!I$&!"&,%-0!,*1,/1*%&$!%4&!D-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(!>#!G-/$+)2]!B-''&0,+*1!*)(!

8)(/$%0+*1!"%0/,%/0&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!!D-!(-!%4+$![&!)&&(&(!%-!3+2/0&!-/%!%4&!%-%*1!*'-/)%!-3!1*)(!W-)&(!

3-0!0&$+(&)%+*1]!,-''&0,+*1]!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1N!!@&![&0&!*>1&!%-!2&%!%4*%!(*%*!30-'!V*$-)!"%*)%-)!-3!%4&!

5=;BN!!83![&!1--P!*%!%4&!,-''&0,+*1!1&2!-3!%4&!$&,%-0![&!,*)!$&&!%4*%!%4&!9*0+*>1&!E*)(!I$&(!

B-''&0,+*1!(+9+(&(!>#!%4&!9*0+*>1&!E*)(!r-)&(!B-''&0,+*1!2+9&!/$!%4&!B-''&0,+*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!

A,,/.+&(N!!D0*,+)2!>*,P!+)!%4+$!1&2!-3!%4&!$%0/,%/0&]!%4&!9*0+*>1&!iE*)(!I$&(!B-''&0,+*1j!+$!,*1,/1*%&(!

>#!'/1%+.1#+)2!%4&!9*0+*>1&$!iE*)(!;&0!B-''&0,+*1b>#bB-''&0,+*1!"%0/,%/0&$j]!*)(!%4&)!%4+$!.0-(/,%!

+$!,-'>+)&(![+%4!%4&!.0-(/,%$!30-'!%4&!-%4&0!1&2$!-3!%4&!$&,%-0!*)(!3+)*11#!(+9+(&(!>#!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!

79*+1*>1&j!%-!2+9&!/$!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(jN!

iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(j!*33&,%$!%4&!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)N!!83!%4&!iE*)(!?0*,%+-)!

A,,/.+&(j!+$!1-[]!%4&)!%4&!5-)%*,4/$&%%!0&2+-)![+11!>&!.&0,&+9&(!%-!>&!'-0&!*%%0*,%+9&!%-!.&-.1&!*)(!

>/$+)&$$&$N!!7$!'-0&!1*)(!+$!/$&(!3-0!4-/$+)2]!,-''&0,+*1]!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1!)&[!,-)$%0/,%+-)]!1*)(!

>&,-'&$!+),0&*$+)21#!$,*0,&0]!*)(!%4&!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!A,,/.+&(j!+),0&*$&$N!!!

8%\$!+'.-0%*)%!%-!)-%&!%4*%!%4&!5=;B!'-(&1!4*$!%[-!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!$&,%-0$]!-)&!3-0!0&$+(&)%+*1!

,-)$%0/,%+-)!0&.0&$&)%&(!>#!%4&!9*0+*>1&!iG-/$+)2j]!*)(!*)!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0!3-0!L/$+)&$$&$N!!

B-)$&J/&)%1#!%4&0&!*0&!%[-!3&&(>*,P!1--.$!+)!%4+$!$&,%-0Q!!-)&!3&&(>*,P!1--.!3-0!4-/$+)2!*)(!-)&!

3&&(>*,P!1--.!3-0!>/$+)&$$&$N!!D4&$&!%[-!1--.$!*0&!+)(&.&)(&)%!30-'!-)&!*)-%4&0!*)(!>-%4!*0&!

>*1*),+)2]!-0!)&2*%+9&!1--.$!*$!&9+(&),&(!>#!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!2-+)2!(-[)!*$!iD-%*1!E*)(!?0*,%+-)!

A,,/.+&(j!2-&$!/.N!E*)(!W-)+)2!3-0!'-$%!'-(&1!$+'/1*%+-)!0/)$!0&'*+)$!/),4*)2&(]!4-[&9&0]!1*)(!

W-)+)2!+$!*!%-.+,!-3!+)%&0&$%!%-!%4&!5=;B!*)(![&![+11!+),1/(&!*!,-/.1&!$+'/1*%+-)!0/)$!%4*%!(&*1![+%4!

W-)+)2!,4*)2&$N!

Page 29: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 29

!

!"#$%&'N<'8./0'J7&')&,*+%'

M3#1/+##+#(6+'$,%(

L-00-[+)2!*2*+)!30-'!%4&!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1]![&!/$&(!%4&!$*'&!$%-,P!*)(!31-[!$%0/,%/0&!3-0!

,-''&0,+*1!*)(!+)(/$%0+*1!$%0/,%/0&$N!YUfZ!8)!4&0!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1]!l*%0+)*!G/11!1--P&(!*%!

>/(2&%+)2!(&,+$+-)$!3-0!%4&!%-[)N!!G-[&9&0!+)!-/0!'-(&1![&!1--P!*%!%4&!3/%/0&!&)&02#!(&'*)($!-3!*)!

&)%+0&!0&2+-)]!%4/$![&!4&*9+1#!'-(+3+&(!%4&!"%&01+)2!D-[)!'-(&1!>/$+)&$$!$&,%-0]!'*+)1#!%40-/24!

&1+'+)*%+)2!'*)#!-3!%4&!9*0+*>1&$!/$&(!%-!'-(&1!>/(2&%+)2!3-0!%4&!%-[)N!!A/0!0&2+-)*1!'-(&1]!3-0!

+)$%*),&!(-&$!)-%!+),1/(&!*)#!.0-9+$+-)$!3-0!3+0&!(&.*0%'&)%$]!.-1+,&!(&.*0%'&)%$]!-0!%*_&$N!!D4&!'*+)!

2-*1!-3!%4&!L/$+)&$$&$!"&,%-0!-3!%4&!5=;B!'-(&1!+$!%-!%0*,P!%4&!20-[%4!-0!(&,1+)&!-3!,-''&0,+*1!*)(!

+)(/$%0+*1!>/$+)&$$&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!L/$+)&$$&$![+11!20-[!+)!%4&!0&2+-)]!+3!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!.&0,&+9&(!%-!>&!

*%%0*,%+9&!%-!>/$+)&$$N!!E+P&[+$&]!>/$+)&$$&$!,-/1(!$%*2)*%&]!-0!&9&)!(&,1+)&!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!+3!%4&!

Page 30: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 30

.&0,&.%+-)!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!+$!)&/%0*1!-0!/)*%%0*,%+9&N!

!

!

!"#$%&'N@'L$7"/&77'M**%.,*"G&/&77'8++9'

Page 31: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 31

!

!"#$%&'NA'L$7"/&77')&,*+%'

!$$%&'$1>+/+##(6+'$,%(

D4&!)&_%!$&,%-0!-3!-/0!'-(&1!+$!%4&!7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0N!!D4+$!$&,%-0!P&&.$!%0*,P!-3!4-[!

9*0+-/$!3*,%-0$!*33&,%!%4&!-9&0*11!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$!-3!%4&!0&2+-)!%-!,/00&)%!*)(!.-%&)%+*1!0&$+(&)%$N!!

D4+)2$!1+P&!2--(!%-[)!$&09+,&$]!-.&)!$.*,&!*)(!*!0/0*1!3&&1]!*)(!<->$!'*P&!%4&!0&2+-)!*%%0*,%+9&]![4+1&!

%4&+0!*>$&),&$!'*P&!%4&!0&2+-)!/)*%%0*,%+9&N!!D4&$&!3*,%-0$![&0&!,4-$&)!>&,*/$&!-3!%4&!0&$/1%$!-3!%4&!

[-01(!,*3m!'&&%+)2!*)(!%4&!$/09&#N!!C*,4!-3!%4&$&!3*,%-0$!+$!$,*1&(!30-'!W&0-!%-!%[-]![+%4!W&0-!>&+)2!

&_%0&'&1#!/)*%%0*,%+9&!*)(!%[-!>&+)2!&_%0&'&1#!*%%0*,%+9&N!!C*,4!&33&,%!+$!*1$-!*$$+2)&(!*!$%0&)2%4!

Page 32: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 32

9*0+*>1&N!!D4&$&!9*1/&$!*0&!-)1#!+'.-0%*)%!0&1*%+9&!%-!-)&!*)-%4&0]!*)(!*0&!/$&(!%-![&+24%!%4&$&!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 33

7%%0*,%+9&)&$$!"&,%-0!&_,&.%!3-0!%4&!3*,%-0$N!!D4&0&!*0&!3+9&!3*,%-0$!*33&,%+)2!>/$+)&$$!*%%0*,%+9&)&$$Q!

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Page 34: 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... · 7)!8)%&0*,%+9&!:/*1+3#+)2!;0-’+%%&(!%-!%4 ... ... #1)"+*’ ’

MRPC Regional Energy Model 34

D40-/24!(*%*!,-11&,%+-)]![&!(&%&0'+)&(!%4&!)/'>&0!-3!&)&02#!,-)$/'&0$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!*)(!%4&#!*0&!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 35

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 36

1-)2&0!%4*)!&_.&,%&(]!>/%!%4&#!(+(!J/+,P1#!*)(!$%&*(+1#!31&&!%4&!0&2+-)$]![+%4!*>-/%!U`!>/$+)&$$&$!1&3%!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 37

D4&0&![&0&!3-/0!9*0+*>1&$![&!4*(!&)-/24!4+$%-0+,!(*%*!-)!%-!,-'.*0&![+%4!$+'/1*%&(!(*%*!*)(!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 38

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Boundary Adequacy:

The following chart shows the variables of the model that are endogenous, exogenous, and

variables that are excluded.

Table 5. Model Boundary Chart

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 39

Endogenous Exogenous Excluded

As John D. Sterman says in his textbook, “System dynamics seeks endogenous explanations for

phenomena”. (24) The variables that are endogenous in the model interact to generate dynamics within

the model’s boundary. On the flip side, variables that are outside the model’s boundary are exogenous

variables. Much of the behavior of exogenous variables in the model is assumed, and not explicitly

modeled.

The Minnesota Project discussed earlier in the report gave us confidence using exogenous

variables, many of which came about from running the simulations of the stakeholder scenarios. That

being said, there were a few areas in the model that we would have liked to expand upon, if time

available, but this was didn’t occur. Because people of different age groups are attracted to a region for

different reasons, we would have liked to add endogenous variables to the aging chain from the

Birth rate

Death rate

House construction rate

Demolition rate

Influence of relative regional

services

Influence of proximity to

major highways/seaports

Influence of relative

regulatory environment

Influence of relative tax rates

Energy Supply

Prices/Costs

Population of the region

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Labor force – gainfully employed

Land already used

Commercial businesses

Industrial Businesses

Region business attractiveness

Region attractiveness to people

Total energy demand

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 40

demographic sector to model that behavior. More recommendations will be mentioned later in this

report.

Family Member:

Our model was built to mimic the Montachusett region. The family member test asks, “Can the

model generate the behavior of other instances in the same class as the system the model was built to

mimic”. (24) Our answer to this question is “Yes”. Our model can be applied to other regions as well

as individual towns. During the process of the model build the team discussed from time to time this

“Family Member” quality of our model.

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 41

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 42

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 43

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 44

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 45

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 46

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 47

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 48

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 49

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 50

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 51

-)1#![4&)!)&,&$$*0#]!*)(![&![-/1(!$&%!-/0!4-'&!%4&0'-$%*%$!1-[&0N!!;*#+)2!4+24&0!.0+,&$!3-0!*!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 52

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 53

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 54

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 55

%4&!IN"N!+'.-0%&(!Rat!-3!+%$!-+1]!*)(!%-(*#![&!*0&!+'.-0%+)2!cSt!-3!-/0!-+1N!D4&!;+,P&)$!;1*)!,*11$!3-0!

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9*0+*>1&!%4*%!,*.%/0&$!*11!%4&!3&(&0*1]!$%*%&!*)(!'/)+,+.*1!-[)&(!9&4+,1&$]!&_,1/(+)2!'-%-0,#,1&$N!!@&!

*1$-!4*9&!%4&$&!'/)+,+.*1!9&4+,1&$!+)!-%4&0!$+'/1*%+-)!0/)$!(0*[+)2!-)!%4&!iD-%*1!O*$-1+)&!*)(!K+&$&1!

K&'*)(jN!!D4+$![*#![&!,*)!$&&!20*.4$!$+(&!>#!$+(&!>&%[&&)!%4&!%[-!(+33&0&)%![*#$!-3!3/&11+)2!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 56

'/)+,+.*1!9&4+,1&$N!!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 57

30-'!'/1%+.1&!$-/0,&$Z!*)(!%4*%!%4&#!0&.0&$&)%&(!$'*11&0!)/'>&0$!%4*)!*/%-'->+1&$]![&![&0&!*>1&!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 58

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 59

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 60

[+11!4&1.!.0&$&09&!-.&)!$.*,&!*)(!$,&)&0#!+)!%4&!0&2+-)N!!D-!$+'/1*%&!%4+$]!8!,4*)2&(!%4&!9*1/&!-3!E*)(!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 61

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 62

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 63

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 64

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 65

)/'>&0!-3!>/$+)&$$&$!+$!1&$$!%4*)!+)!%4&!>*$&!0/)]!'&*)+)2!3&[&0!<->$!%4*)!+)!%4&!>*$&!0/)N!!D4+$!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 66

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 67

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 68

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 69

%-!'*P&!+%!$-!%4*%!.&-.1&!(-!)-%!)-%+,&!%4&!,4*)2&$!+)!%4&!0&2+-)!J/+%&!*$!J/+,P1#N!!L&3-0&!*(</$%+)2!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 70

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 71

!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 72

! !

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 73

,4*)2&!$+'/1*%&$!*!20-[%4!+)!%4&!1*)(!/$&(!3-0!%0*)$.-0%*%+-)!>#!RT!*,0&$!&9&0#!#&*0!$%*0%+)2!+)!RTRT!

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 74

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 75

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 76

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 77

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 78

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 79

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 80

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 81

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 82

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 83

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 84

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 85

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 86

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 87

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 88

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 89

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 90

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 91

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 92

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 93

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 94

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 95

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 96

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 97

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 98

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 99

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 100

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 101

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 102

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 103

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 104

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 105

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 106

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 107

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 108

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 109

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 110

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MRPC Regional Energy Model 111

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