Use of Systems Analysis to Assess Progress toward Goals

and Technology Impacts

Bill Gilbert

NASA Langley Research CenterNovember 15, 1999

Outline

• Aerospace Systems, Concepts, and Analysis Competency

• Programs/Technology Contribution to Goals

• Aviation System Analysis Capability

Aviation’s Impact on Environment

Assessment Modeling

Emission Measurements

Radiative effects of Contrails

Atmospheric Sciences Competency Helps Assess

The Three Pillars for Success(Aero-Space Technology Enterprise)

Three Pillars Aero-Space Goals

SAFETYReduce the aircraft

accident rate by a factor of five within 10 years, and by a factor of 10

within 20 years.

NOISEReduce the perceived noise levels of future aircraft by a factor of two from today’s subsonic aircraft within 10 years, and by a factor of

four within 20 years.

EMISSIONSReduce emissions of

future aircraft by a factorof three within 10 years,

and by a factor of fivewithin 20 years.

COST OF AIR TRAVELReduce the cost of

air travel by 25% within 10 years, and by 50%

within 20 years.

GENERAL AVIATIONInvigorate the general aviation

industry, delivering 10,000 aircraft annually within 10 years,

and 20,000 aircraft annually within 20 years.

CAPACITYWhile maintaining

safety, triple the aviationsystem throughput, inall weather conditions,

within 10 years.

SUPERSONIC TRAVEL

Reduce the travel time to the Far East and Europe by 50 percent within 20 years, and do so at today’s subsonicticket prices.

DESIGN & TESTProvide next generation design tools and experimental aircraft

to increase design confidence,and cut the

development cycle time for aircraft in half.

IN-SPACE TRANS.Reduce the cost of

interorbital transfer by an order of magnitude within 15 years, and reduce travel time for planetary missions by a

factor of two within 15 years, and by an order of magnitude

within 25 years.

SPACE ACCESSReduce the payload cost to

low-Earth orbit by an order of magnitude, from $10,000 to $1,000 per pound, within 10 years, and by an additional

order of magnitude within 25

years.

Mapping Programs and Technology Results into Goals

• Progress Towards the Aero-Space Enterprise Goals is Achieved by the Combined Contributions of

-- Base Technology Research -- Focused Program Technology Development

• Contributions of Focused Programs and Base Technologies are Crosscutting Among the Goals

• Progress Towards the Goals May Be Achieved with Crosscutting Technologies and Not Solely by Dedicated Program Elements

• System Analysis -- Correlates Technologies with Goals -- Analyzes Contribution of Correlated Technologies Towards Goals

Enterprise Intercenter Systems Analysis Team

Marshall

AmesLangley

Dryden

Kennedy

Glenn

Assessment of OAT Programs

Vehicle/Fleet Team

•Reference Vehicles•Subsonic transports•CTR/commuter/rotorcraft•HSCT•GA•Single Stage to Orbit•Two Stage to Orbit

•Manufacturing & Market Economics•Aircraft Emissions & Noise

Airport/Airspace Team

•Reference Airports/ATM Concepts•Enroute/Terminal Area Network•Capacity/Throughput/Delays•Noise Footprint/Community Impact•Airport Operations/Airline Costs•Airport/ATM Safety Model

• POC for Each Goal Impact• Assure Generation of Output from Other Teams

Technical Evaluation & Integration Team

•Data Solicitation•Technology Oversight/Projections•Technology Roll-up

Program ObjectivesL/D

All Weather Operations

Aero Design Time

Weight

SFC

MTBF Labor Hours

Reference Vehicles

Reference Fleets

Reference Operations/Airports

Reference Air Traffic Mgmt System

Saf

ety

Em

iss

ion

s

No

ise

Cap

ac

ity

Co

st

Co

mm

erc

ial

Su

pe

rso

nic

Gen

era

lA

via

tio

n

Des

ign

Tim

e

Sp

ac

eA

cce

ss

In-S

pa

ceT

ran

s.

Spaceports/Operations Team•Reference Spaceport Concepts•Servicing & Operations Models•Launch/Flight Safety Model

• Oversee Subteam(s)• Consistent Goal Accounting and Data Format

Outcome Goals Teams

BASELINE AIRCRAFT

Regional TurbopropPayload 40 paxDesign Range 1000 nmEcon Range 200 nm

Civil Tilt RotorPayload 40 paxDesign Range 600 nmEcon Range 200 nm

General Aviation JetPayload 4 paxDesign Range 800 nm

Regional JetPayload 50 paxDesign Range 800 nmEcon Range 400 nm

Short-Range TwinPayload 100 paxDesign Range 1500 nmEcon Range 500 nm

Long-Range TwinPayload 300 paxDesign Range 7500 nmEcon Range 3000 nm

Long-Range QuadPayload 600 paxDesign Range 7500 nmEcon Range 3500 nm

High Speed CivilPayload 300 paxDesign Range 5000 nmEcon Range 3500 nm

General Aviation PropPayload 4 paxDesign Range 800 nm

IntracontinentalPayload 150 paxDesign Range 3000 nmEcon Range 1000 nm

Medium-Range TwinPayload 225 paxDesign Range 6000 nmEcon Range 2000 nm

Notional Concept of a Safety Data Analysis Framework Notional Concept of a Safety Data Analysis Framework

Accident Rates (Metrics) Accident Rates (Metrics)

Additional Metrics:Additional Metrics:Fatal Accident RatesFatal Accident RatesNumber of FatalitiesNumber of FatalitiesNumber of InjuriesNumber of Injuries

Option #N

Option #1Option #1

Option #1

Technologies/Interventions

• • •

Time Slice (2007, 2022)

•Fleet projection•Accident projection

Aviation Safety Goal Analysis

• 34 Technology Datasheets considered in Safety Goal Analysis

-- 20 from Aviation Safety Program Office-- 2 from Airframe Systems-- 6 from Propulsion Systems-- 1 from Advanced Subsonic Technologies-- 5 from Aviation Operations Systems

• Approximately 47 Different Causal Factor Impacts

• Technology impacts to different aircraft classes analyzed separately

(Transports, Commuters, GA, Rotorcraft)

Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Transport Aircraft (Part 121)

� Accident Rate (Fatal & Non-Fatal Combined)

� Fatal Accident Rate� Number of Fatalities� Number of Injuries

Metrics

Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within 25 years.

Goal� U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal & non-fatal

accident NTSB data used to determine percentage of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to technology implementation

� U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT forecasts

� 100% overlap in accident coverage allowed due to multiple technologies impacting individual accidents; consistent with AvSP philosophy of increased reliability through redundant technology impacts

Approach

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Percent Reduction

Acc. Rate Fatal Acc.Rate

Fatalties Injuries

2007

2022

Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Commuter Aircraft (Part 135, sch. and non-sch.)

� Accident Rate (Fatal & Non-Fatal Combined)

� Fatal Accident Rate� Number of Fatalities� Number of Injuries

Metrics

Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within 25 years.

Goal Approach� U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal & non-fatal

accident NTSB data used to determine percentage of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to technology implementation

� U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT forecasts

� 100% overlap in accident coverage allowed due to multiple technologies impacting individual accidents; consistent with AvSP philosophy of increased reliability through redundant technology impacts

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Percent Reduction

Acc. Rate Fatal Acc. Rate

Fatalties Injuries

2007

2022

Summary of NASA Programs Projected Progress Toward the Goals (end of FY98)

20 Year Projections

10 Year Projections

0

25

50

75

100

Safety(w/out AvSP)

Emissions Noise Capacity AffordabilityTravel Time GeneralAviation

DevelopmentCycle

0

25

50

75

100

Safety(w/out AvSP)

Emissions Noise Capacity Affordability

Travel Time

GeneralAviation

DevelopmentCycle

% T

owar

d t

he

Goa

l%

Tow

ard

th

e G

oal

NOx

CO2

NOx

CO2

GA

GA

non-GA

non-GA

Time

Surcharge

Assess advanced aviation technology impacts on the integrated aviation system•Technical Progress and Value•Technology Cost Effectiveness•Technology Investment Portfolio

http://www.asac.lmi.org

ASAC Ties The Integrated Aviation System TogetherASAC Ties The Integrated Aviation System Together

System

Airline

IntegratedAviationSystem

AirspaceAircraft

Environment Safety

Operators

Air Carrier InvestmentAir Carrier Network CostFlight Segment Cost

Airline Cost/Benefit & OpsAir Cargo Cost/DemandDOT Databases

Functional AnalysisAirport CapacityAirport DelayApproximate Network DelayAATT Decision Support ToolsAirport Databases

Aircraft Synthesis (ACSYNT)Flight Optimization System (FLOPS)Reference Aircraft Configurations

Integrated Noise Impact System Safety Tolerance Analysis

3

ASAC Data FlowASAC Data Flow

Airport Capacity & Demand

Air Carrier Cost Functions

Route Structure

EfficientRoutes, Fleet

Air Traffic Management &

Regulation•ATC

•Safety•Environment

Aviation Industry

Aircraft & System

Technologies

FAAAir Traffic

Management

Constraints Characteristics Costs ATMDemand

Demand

Registered ASAC Users

147

206

264

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99

User Organizations • 6 U.S. Government (e.g., NATO, Defense, U.S. Int’l Trade Commission, FAA)• 4 Operations (AA, NWA, UAL, USAirways)•29 Manufacturing/Engineering (e.g., BAC, TRW, P&W, LM,ARINC, Cessna Textron, Draper)•13 Academia (e.g., Johns Hopkins APL, Princeton, GaTech, Berkeley, MIT, Geo Mason) • 6 International (e.g., AirServices Australia, Eurocontrol)

Users of ASAC are Increasing Each Year

11

ASAC Customers & Applications

American AirlinesFree Flight: Preserving Airline Opportunity, ‘97

United AirlinesB-727 Navigation Upgrade, ‘97

Pratt & WhitneyPW8000 Product Launch Decision Support, ‘97 - ‘98

BoeingCNS Study Group, ‘98 - ‘99

Transportation Research Board Economic Impacts of Air Traffic Congestion, ‘98

CNS/ATM Focused Team (CAFT) TAP/AATT Study Results, ‘98

NASA • Dallas-Ft. Worth CTAS Operations Safety Assessment, ‘98

• Noise Impact Assessment for Environmental Program Planning, ‘99• TAP/AATT Technology Assessments, ‘98 - ‘99

Summary

• The OAT ten technology goals were chosen to address aero-space industry technology needs

• Validity of our technology assessments depends on fidelity of our aviation system models – We need your continued support in keeping the models

relevant• As our customers and partners, we encourage you to interact

with us and provide feedback on technology focus and analysis methods– Tour– Breakout sessions