USDA, APHIS, PPQCenter for Plant Health Science and Technology

Raleigh, North Carolina

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the

Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL)

Outline

Part I: Overview - who we are

Part II: Introduction to PRA

Our Mission:

…Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities.

What we do:The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.

A Glimpse into PERAL’s World

PERAL’s world is populated by:20 Entomologists11 Plant Pathologists2 Ecologists2 Botanists1 Statistician1 Economist2 Biological Science Technicians1 Librarian1 Training Specialist 1 Technical Editor2 Cooperators1 IT Specialist2 Administrative Assistants2 Assistant Directors1 DirectorTotal = 50 Staff

Robert Griffin, PERAL Director

Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis

Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including:

GIS

Modeling

Statistics

Economics

Commodity RA

Organism RA

Pathway RA

Risk management

Export support

Responsibilities• Perform pest risk analyses (PRA)• Analyze risk-based operational questions• Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures• Provide scientific support to facilitate exports• Evaluate new pests and imminent threats• Research scientific and technical questions• Collect and manage pest risk information

Related activities

• Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologies• Analyze offshore pest dynamics• Identify data needs for risk-based decision making• Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and management• Provide leadership to international and regional standard-setting

Collaboration & linkage• PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field)• ARS (data, research needs, review)• Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service)• Technical experts (universities, other agencies,

international organizations)• Stakeholders (States, producers)• Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of

Excellence, research orgs)

Projects• Long-term: 90 days to several years

– Typically require a budget– Assigned and prioritized by the Agency

• Ongoing: Operational/functional– New Pest Advisory Group– Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56)

• Ad hoc: less than 90 days

2009 Productivity– 31 commodity assessments– 19 organism assessments– 64 new pest (NPAG) assessments– 7 pathway and operational assessments– 19 collaborative assessments– Database mgmt. – Capacity building – Standard setting

Ad Hoc Projects

Tolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato (nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm))

Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source: www.avocadocentral.com))

Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (www.forestryimages.org))

DoD Projects started in 2009Wood Packaging with

Ammunition to Europe

• Export analysis• Prove that untreated

wood is low risk• Statistically designed

sampling• Negotiation required

Base movement from Okinawa to Guam

• Large pathway analysis

• Multiple pests and multiple pathways

• Huge data collection challenge

• Collaboration with other agencies

Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum

International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc.

Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program

RA 101 training every year (summer)

Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing

Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU

- Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU

- Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU

Library Services

• Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system

• 17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic format

• Collections of posters, maps, photographs

Lucy ReidPERAL Information Specialist

New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG)

Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take

Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations

Amaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & species

Botryotinia sphaerosperma Achatina fulica

Internet tool for pest prediction and detection

Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weeds

On-line national and international weather and climate databases

Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate match

NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting

View of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data.

The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO)

Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pests

CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week

Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org)

The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD)

Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc.

PART II

Introduction to PRA

Initiation

• Request

• Prioritization

• Assignment

• Time

• Prerequisites

• Quarterly

• One + team

• Weeks to years

Analysis

• Comprehensive Pest List• Quarantine Pest List• Pathway List• Pest Analysis

• Identify Mitigations• Formulate

Recommendations

Optional country consultation

Literature review, expert and country consultation

Mitigationrequires

assessment

Risk requires

mitigation

Initiation

Identify hazard(s)

Estimate the likelihood ofoccurrence

Estimate the magnitudeof the consequences

Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty

Develop recommendationsand describe uncertainty

Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts

Identify mitigation options

Decisionmaking

Describe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations.

Evaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option.

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

Risk Assessment Questions• What information is available?• What quantity and quality of

information?• What can go wrong (if nothing is

done)?• What is the likelihood?• What is the magnitude of the

consequences?

Elements of Pest Risk AssessmentLikelihood (X)

• Associated with host or pathway

• Escapes certification• Survives transit• Undetected at entry• Provided a favorable

environment• Able to

reproduce/spread

Consequences (+)• Direct economic or

health damage potential

• Indirect damage potential

• Environmental damage potential

• Perceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)

Risk Management Questions• What can be done to eliminate or

mitigate the hazard?• How effective are the options?• How feasible are the options?• What impacts do the options have?• What is the recommended option?• What is the level of uncertainty?

Variability and Uncertainty

• Variability is not reduced with more or better information

• Uncertainty may be: –modelling or measurement errors–gaps in information– incorrect assumptions

Risk Communication

• Two-way exchange of information–consulting– informing–explaining or justifying

• Not for consensus, but understanding • Demonstrates openness and concern

1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300Raleigh, North Carolina USA

27606-5202

Tel: +1-919-855-7512Fax: +1-919-855-7595

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/cphst/peral.shtmlhttp:/

Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory