us strategy 20-11-2014

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Daily Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

A fast-paced morning session today as we had Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data come in. French and German data missed on

their headlines with the German figure sparking mass weakness in the DAX and Estoxx. Although the DAX found support just

below S2, it has not pushed past the double resistance formed yesterday. In a correlated move we saw the Bund push higher to

extremities oftodaysrange, aiding T-Notes to move higher. We also had UK Retail Sales this morning coming in at 0.80% against

an expected 0.30%. This allowed Cable to make new highs for the session and this move has been sustained for the duration of

the morning. We had the FedsMinutes overnight, coming in with a mix of commentary. This included discussion of removing

considerable timefrom their Monetary Policy, a phrase which has elevated the Fedsdovish position since rates were cut to

historic lows. It should be noted that only one voting member voted against keeping this dovish language and the majority line

meant there was little effect in the markets. However the discussion of this should be noted as it becomes more important with

each US data point that exceeds analystsexpectations. The decision to remove Quantitative Easing from the Fedspolicy was

unanimous as data had improved considerably over the past year. The most interesting part of an otherwise boring set of minutes

comes from a section which implied that the Fed would soon provide a better picture of how they intend to raise rates, the pace ofthe hikes and their inception, which analysts believe to be around the middle of next year. ChinasManufacturing numbers also

entered the market lower than expected at 50.8. This is another decline from the highs in July at 51.7; the reaction in the market

was relatively subdued with no large moves worthy of mention. Both S&P 500 and EURUSD strategies were filled, the S&P during

yesterdaysafternoon session and the EURUSD achieved second target during the US afternoon trading session.

Todays View

For the afternoon ahead we have US inflation for October due at 1330. This is expected at 1.60% on the annual figure with a

previous number of 1.70%. Any numbers outside the range are likely to drive prices so please remain aware of the risks of trading

around this time. This move will also be affected by the Fedsmonetary policy stance and also last nightscommentary on lower

than target inflation just as bad as inflation above 2.0%. As usual we also have the weekly jobs report, expected at 284k. A furtherreading below the 300k handle on Initial Jobless claims will aid the dollar to strengthen as rate hike speculations are priced in. We

also have Manufacturing PMI due at 1445 with 56.3 as the expected month on month headline figure. Existing Home sales and

Philadelphia Fed are also due at 3pm, with 18.5 expected on the index and 5.15m on the housing numbers. The Existing HomeSales are arguably more important as housing are one of the Fedsindicators for gauging rate hikes so this will hold more weight.Do take into account all numbers however and trade accordingly. Please also be aware that as we move into the winter months

there is usually a rush to complete on mortgage exchanges so this could also come into play. It is therefore likely that the homesales numbers are likely to be higher in both December and January as these numbers look back, however we are bullish on this

number today. As equities have sold off nicely during the European session we are happy to maintain our bullish outlook atstronger levels. We are looking for dollar strength on the back of positive US data sets, especially housing. We are expecting

Tnotes to move inversely with equities and will be looking for a conservative entry short. Crude is likely to follow the trend lowerand again we are following the best technical entry with the direction here.

Alternative View

Misses on US data, especially housing and CPI this afternoon, are likely to invalidate the EURUSD strategy. Continueddevelopments from Fed Speakers should be carefully analysed in the wake ofyesterdaysFOMC minutes.

Key Headlines

US Strategy Report: 20th November 2014

Major Data Releases

Data Expected View

US CPI YoY 1.60% In-line/ higher

Initial Jobless Claims 284k In-l ine/ lower

Manufactur ing PMI 56.3 In- line/ h igher

Philadelphia Fed 18.5 In/line

Existing Home Sales 5.15m Higher

Market Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish

French and German Manufacturing PMI come in

lower than expected

China Manufacturing misses on headline

FOMC minutes broadly neutral with some hawkishundertones

Japanese Manufacturing misses on headline

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E-Mini S&P 500 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

25th

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN

BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS

WHATSOEVER REGARDING PAST OR FUTURE

PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL

PURPOSES ONLY

Please see page 5 for more information

Key Levels Comments

2054.00 All Time High

2050.50 Ydays High

2045.00 Pivot

2043.75 High of 13th

2037.75 Ydays low

2032.25 S2

2026.75 S3, Double bottom 12th & 13th

2025.25 Low of 17th

Strategy Long

Entry 2026.75

1st Target 2035.75

2nd Target 2043.75

Stop 2025.25

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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014






PURPOSES ONLY


Key Levels Comments

4248.75 14 year high

4236.00 Fed minutes high


4223.00 Pivot

4204.25 Yday Low

4203.25 S1

4195.75 Low of 14th

4195.50 Double bottom 13th & 17th

Strategy Long

Entry 4195.75

1st Target 4223.00

2nd Target 4236.00

Stop 4191.50

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EURUSD (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

25th

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS INCURRED IN

CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.

AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS WHATSOEVER REGARDING

PAST OR FUTURE PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR

EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY


Key Levels Comments

1.2605 Ydays high

1.2603 R1

1.2600 Handle resistance

1.2581 High of 17th

1.2573 Ydays morning high

1.2558 Pivot

1.2512 S1

1.2506 Todays low

Strategy Short

Entry 1.2573

1st Target 1.2548

2nd Target 1.2512

Stop 1.2581

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US 10yr T-Notes (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014






PURPOSES ONLY


Key Levels Comments

127.015 R3

127.000 16th High

126.280 R2


126.140 Pivot

126.085 17th Low

126.055 14th Low

Strategy Short

Entry 127.000

1st Target 126.235

2nd Target 126.140

Stop 127.015

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Nymex WTI Crude Oil (Jan15) Futures: 20th November 2014






PURPOSES ONLY


Key Levels Comments

76.00 Handle Resistance

75.42 Ydays high

75.20 Pivot

75.00 Handle Resistance

74.56 Pivot

74.00 Handle Support

73.92 Ydays low

Strategy Short

Entry 75.20

1st Target 74.57

2nd Target 73.92

Stop 75.42

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us strategy 20-11-2014

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