Evolution of US National Security

Strategy

US StrategiesUS Strategies National Security Strategy (Pres) National Defense Strategy (SecDef) National Military Strategy (CJCS) Quadrennial Defense Review

(SecDef) Annual Report of the SecDef to

Congress (SecDef)

All from DoD Historical Office

Decision ProcessNational Security Strategy of the US

Defense Guidance

National Military Strategy of the US

QDR Annual Report

Force Posture CONGRESS

GuidelinesGuidelines

Isolationism /NationalismIsolationism /Nationalismvs. vs.

InternationalismInternationalism

RealismRealism IdealismIdealism liberalismliberalism

WilsonianismWilsonianismBalance of power Balance of power Hegemonic realismHegemonic realism

RealismRealism IdealismIdealismPriority on Priority on

balance of powerspreadingspreading

US valuesUS values

Continuities? Patterns?Continuities? Patterns?

1.1. 1789-1950s: Debate1789-1950s: Debate

2.2. 1940s-1952: Decision to Lead1940s-1952: Decision to Lead1.1. Balance of power?Balance of power?

2.2. Hegemony?Hegemony?

3.3. Free Trade and CommerceFree Trade and Commerce

4.4. Spreading Democracy**Spreading Democracy**

5.5. Nervousness about CommitmentsNervousness about Commitments

Threat and ResponseThreat and Response

1. How do we define the threat?2. How do we define the US role?3. How many and what types of

wars do we prepare for?4. How do we respond to changes

in the threat?

Since WW II

1.1. Cold War 1945-1990Cold War 1945-1990

2.2. Post-Cold War 1990-2001Post-Cold War 1990-2001

3.3. Post-September 11: 2001 to Post-September 11: 2001 to presentpresent

Each era defined by the nature of Each era defined by the nature of the threatthe threat

1. Cold War

Stable and relatively Stable and relatively predictable threatpredictable threat

Dilemma: Total war is not an Dilemma: Total war is not an optionoption

45 years of developing 45 years of developing strategies to compete with strategies to compete with and live with the USSRand live with the USSR

Defining the ThreatDefining the Threat

Soviet Union and Communism

Defining US RoleDefining US Role

“Truman Doctrine” Containing Spread of Communism and Soviet

Power Speech, March 1947 Containment: Kennan’s Long Telegram as

published in Foreign Affairs, “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” by “X”, 1947

Strategy

1. Nuclear Deterrence2. Forward Presence3. Peacetime Military Buildup

A. NSC-68 (1950)

4. Own the sea5. NATO6. Limited War

2. Forward Presence2. Forward Presence

6. Limited War6. Limited War

Korean War 1950-1953 Fight locally Prevent escalation

Geography Weapons Objectives Negotiate and fight

Legacy of Truman StrategyLegacy of Truman Strategy

Core StrategyCore Strategy1.Nuclear Deterrence2.Forward Presence3.Peacetime Military Strength4.Own the sea5.NATO and other alliances6.Free Trade and Commerce7.Spread Democracy**

Shift in Strategy under IkeShift in Strategy under Ike

The New Look Greater reliance on nuclear

weapons Conventional weapons cuts No limited war

“Never Again Club” Reliance on regional alliances and

allies

JFK: Renewed Focus on “Wars of Liberation”

StrategyStrategy

Flexible ResponseFlexible Response Large Defense BuildupLarge Defense Buildup Two and ½ War StrategyTwo and ½ War Strategy

1.1. EuropeEurope

2.2. East AsiaEast Asia ½ War: Counterinsurgency ½ War: Counterinsurgency

Vietnam WarVietnam War

Insurgency/CounterinsurgencyInsurgency/Counterinsurgency(for reference only)(for reference only)

Insurgent/Guerrilla TacticsInsurgent/Guerrilla Tactics Not taking territoryNot taking territory Hit Hit and run strikes on run strikes on

economic, governmental , economic, governmental , and military targetsand military targets

Create shadow political Create shadow political structurestructure

Make government look Make government look weak, incompetentweak, incompetent

Win support of the peopleWin support of the people Collapse government Collapse government

through intimidation and through intimidation and loss of popular supportloss of popular support

Then take over nationThen take over nation

Counterinsurgency (COIN)Counterinsurgency (COIN) Protect territoryProtect territory Protect government, Protect government,

economic, and military economic, and military infrastructureinfrastructure

Hunt down guerrillasHunt down guerrillas Hunt down political Hunt down political

supporters of enemysupporters of enemy Stabilize governmentStabilize government Win support of the Win support of the

peoplepeople Nation-buildingNation-building

1950s-1960s: Change in the ThreatSino-Soviet Split

Nixon StrategyNixon Strategy

1. Containment through détente Arms control with USSR

SALT Opening to China

Nixon (continued)

2. 1 ½ war strategy2. 1 ½ war strategy1.1. EuropeEurope ½ in Korea or Middle East½ in Korea or Middle East

3. Regional Threats?Nixon Doctrine

Remarks July 25, 1969 (see Q and A) Address to the nation, Nov. 3, 1969

1979-1981

Redefinition of ThreatIranian RevolutionIranian RevolutionSoviet Invasion of AfghanistanSoviet Invasion of Afghanistan

““Arc of Crisis”Arc of Crisis”

New Strategy (Carter)New Strategy (Carter)

1.1. Two War StrategyTwo War Strategy1.1. EuropeEurope

2.2. Persian Gulf RegionPersian Gulf Region1.1. Carter DoctrineCarter Doctrine

2.2. Establish RDJTF (Central Command)Establish RDJTF (Central Command)

2.2. End Détente with USSREnd Détente with USSR1.1. But crisis brings US-PRC closerBut crisis brings US-PRC closer

3.3. Large US military BuildupLarge US military Buildup

Reagan Response to New Cold War, End of Detente

1. Military Buildup Nuclear forces 600 ship Navy

2. Type of War? Sounds like Total War

3. But Use of US force—minor Doctrine of Overwhelming Force

(Weinberger or Powell Doctrine)

4. Reagan Doctrine

The Cold War EndsThe Cold War Ends

Active Duty Military Personnel, 1940–2011Military personnel on extended or continuous active duty. Excludes reserves on active duty for training.Source: Department of Defense. NOTE: Figures for 1998 through August 2007 include cadets/midshipmen.

Year Army Air Force Navy Marine Corps Total

1940 269,023 160,997 28,345 458,365

1945 8,266,373 3,319,586 469,925 12,055,884

1950 593,167 411,277 380,739 74,279 1,459,462

1955 1,109,296 959,946 660,695 205,170 2,935,107

1960 873,078 814,752 616,987 170,621 2,475,438

1965 969,066 824,662 669,985 190,213 2,653,926

1970 1,322,548 791,349 691,126 259,737 3,064,760

1975 784,333 612,751 535,085 195,951 2,128,120

1980 777,036 557,969 527,153 188,469 2,050,627

1985 780,787 601,515 570,705 198,025 2,151,032

1990 732,403 535,233 579,417 196,652 2,043,705

1995 508,559 400,409 434,617 174,639 1,518,224

2000 482,170 355,654 373,193 173,321 1,384,338

2005 488,944 351,666 358,700 178,704 1,378,014

2011 (Sept.) 565,463 333,370 325,123 201,157 1,468,364

US Navy size 1945-2011US Navy size 1945-2011

http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/org9-4.htm#1945org9-4.htm#1945

Dept of the Army historical summaries Dept of the Army historical summaries http://www.history.army.mil/html/bookhttp://www.history.army.mil/html/bookshelves/collect/dahsum.htmlshelves/collect/dahsum.html

AF stats AF stats http://www.afhso.af.mil/usafstatistics/http://www.afhso.af.mil/usafstatistics/