u.s. rice growers face higher prices and tighter supplies

49
U.S. Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 2017/18 2017 Rice Outlook Conference December 12, 2017 Nathan Childs Economic Research Service USDA Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Estimates and forecasts are from the December 2017 WASDE.

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US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718

2017 Rice Outlook ConferenceDecember 12 2017

Nathan Childs Economic Research Service

USDA

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board Estimates and forecasts are from the

December 2017 WASDE

PART 1

THE 201718 GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview

bull Global rice production of 4835 million tons (milled basis) is projected to be 07 percent below the 201617 record

bull Smaller crops in Bangladesh Brazil Egypt India Japan the Philippines South Korea and the United States more than offset larger production in Burma China Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

bull Global harvested area is projected at 1602 million hectares down 06 million hectares from 201617 as reductions in Bangladesh Egypt India Philippines and the United States more than offset expanded rice area in Burma Cambodia Thailand and Sri Lanka

bull Global supplies increase to a record 6215 million tons a result of a 4-percent larger carryin

Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718

Global Carryin Global Production

Milled basis 201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

Global Carryin
Global Production
120604
351406
117551
368774
143064
399217
73991
417889
93183
440012
109076
473539
138011
483469

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195
9091 9091
126641 353287
126672 353862
12314 35466
118911 364092
9596 9596
118077 38037
12025 38742
12773 394899
134008 409288
0001 0001
146676 399397
132925 378119
103016 392466
81659 40081
0506 0506
76491 420147
75397 433634
80905 449924
0910 0910
95161 450072
99878 467431
1213 1213
11873 47854
122027 479156
127769 472572
132611 48673
1718 1718

PART 1

THE 201718 GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview

bull Global rice production of 4835 million tons (milled basis) is projected to be 07 percent below the 201617 record

bull Smaller crops in Bangladesh Brazil Egypt India Japan the Philippines South Korea and the United States more than offset larger production in Burma China Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

bull Global harvested area is projected at 1602 million hectares down 06 million hectares from 201617 as reductions in Bangladesh Egypt India Philippines and the United States more than offset expanded rice area in Burma Cambodia Thailand and Sri Lanka

bull Global supplies increase to a record 6215 million tons a result of a 4-percent larger carryin

Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718

Global Carryin Global Production

Milled basis 201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

Global Carryin
Global Production
120604
351406
117551
368774
143064
399217
73991
417889
93183
440012
109076
473539
138011
483469

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195
9091 9091
126641 353287
126672 353862
12314 35466
118911 364092
9596 9596
118077 38037
12025 38742
12773 394899
134008 409288
0001 0001
146676 399397
132925 378119
103016 392466
81659 40081
0506 0506
76491 420147
75397 433634
80905 449924
0910 0910
95161 450072
99878 467431
1213 1213
11873 47854
122027 479156
127769 472572
132611 48673
1718 1718

The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview

bull Global rice production of 4835 million tons (milled basis) is projected to be 07 percent below the 201617 record

bull Smaller crops in Bangladesh Brazil Egypt India Japan the Philippines South Korea and the United States more than offset larger production in Burma China Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

bull Global harvested area is projected at 1602 million hectares down 06 million hectares from 201617 as reductions in Bangladesh Egypt India Philippines and the United States more than offset expanded rice area in Burma Cambodia Thailand and Sri Lanka

bull Global supplies increase to a record 6215 million tons a result of a 4-percent larger carryin

Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718

Global Carryin Global Production

Milled basis 201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

Global Carryin
Global Production
120604
351406
117551
368774
143064
399217
73991
417889
93183
440012
109076
473539
138011
483469

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195
9091 9091
126641 353287
126672 353862
12314 35466
118911 364092
9596 9596
118077 38037
12025 38742
12773 394899
134008 409288
0001 0001
146676 399397
132925 378119
103016 392466
81659 40081
0506 0506
76491 420147
75397 433634
80905 449924
0910 0910
95161 450072
99878 467431
1213 1213
11873 47854
122027 479156
127769 472572
132611 48673
1718 1718

Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718

Global Carryin Global Production

Milled basis 201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

Global Carryin
Global Production
120604
351406
117551
368774
143064
399217
73991
417889
93183
440012
109076
473539
138011
483469

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195
9091 9091
126641 353287
126672 353862
12314 35466
118911 364092
9596 9596
118077 38037
12025 38742
12773 394899
134008 409288
0001 0001
146676 399397
132925 378119
103016 392466
81659 40081
0506 0506
76491 420147
75397 433634
80905 449924
0910 0910
95161 450072
99878 467431
1213 1213
11873 47854
122027 479156
127769 472572
132611 48673
1718 1718

Chart1

Global Carryin
Global Production
120604
351406
117551
368774
143064
399217
73991
417889
93183
440012
109076
473539
138011
483469

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195
9091 9091
126641 353287
126672 353862
12314 35466
118911 364092
9596 9596
118077 38037
12025 38742
12773 394899
134008 409288
0001 0001
146676 399397
132925 378119
103016 392466
81659 40081
0506 0506
76491 420147
75397 433634
80905 449924
0910 0910
95161 450072
99878 467431
1213 1213
11873 47854
122027 479156
127769 472572
132611 48673
1718 1718

Sheet1

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718
9091 9596 0001 0506 0910 1213 1718
Global Carryin 120604 126641 126672 12314 118911 117551 118077 12025 12773 134008 143064 146676 132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132611 138011
Global Production 351406 353287 353862 35466 364092 368774 38037 38742 394899 409288 399217 399397 378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479156 472572 486730 483469
47201 479928 480534 4778 483003 486325 498447 50767 522629 543296 542281 546073 511044 495482 482469 49188 496638 509031 530829 533195 545233 567309 582615 59727 601183 600341 619341 62148
132925 103016 81659 73991 76491 75397 80905 93183 95161 99878 109076 118730 122027 127769 132609 138107
378119 392466 400810 417889 420147 433634 449924 440012 450072 467431 473539 478540 479155 472569 486565 481195

Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions

bull United States Total harvested are dropped 228 percent (285K ha)ndash Main Factor A weak long-grain price outlook at planting ndash Plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South especially in Arkansas ndash And Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes struck near the end of harvest

bull In Bangladesh severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent (448K ha) mostly impacting the Aman crop

bull Indiarsquos rice area dropped 1 percent (490k ha) due to drought-like conditions in central India in July-Sept and August flooding in the east

bull Egyptrsquos rice harvested area dropped 10 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton amp corn

bull The Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent (223k ha) mostly due to expectations of increased imports in 2018

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718

Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions

bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output

bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought

bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports

bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718

The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

India 265 million tons -24 percent

Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent

United States 145 million tons -204 percent

Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent

Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent

Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent

Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent

South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent

Japan 180000 tons -23 percent

Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent

Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718

The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production

Country Quantity Percent

Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent

China 115 million tons + 08 percent

Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent

Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent

Burma 300000 tons +24 percent

Peru 261000 tons +119 percent

Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent

Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent

Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent

Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent

Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718

The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks

bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production

bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718

bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam

bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001

Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718

Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio

201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413

Sheet1

China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718

China India Thailand Rest of World

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972

Sheet1

However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718

India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan

MIL TONS

201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Chart1

India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179

Sheet1

Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record

Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Burma 3000 -100

Thailand 10200 -800

Uruguay 900 -190

Vietnam 6500 -100

Australia 325 +145

Pakistan 3800 +200

Cambodia 1250 +100

India 11600 Unchanged record

United States 3400 Unchanged

China 1100 Unchanged

hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018

Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017

Iran 1300 -300

Nigeria 2300 -200

Sri Lanka 400 -400

Brazil 600 -200

Bangladesh 1200 -150

Malaysia 900 -100

Kenya 700 -100

China 5250 -50

Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150

Philippines 1700 +600

Guinea 800 +75

Iraq 1100 +50

About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago

0123456789101112

05

101520253035404550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017

Rice Trade Trade Share of Production

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MILL TONS PERCENT

Chart1

Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073

Sheet1

Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma

2015

2016

2017

2018

2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS Major Exporters

Chart1

2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3

Sheet1

Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400

2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018

BURMA

CAMBODIA

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250

Sheet1

After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip

000

050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018

Exports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

Mil tons

Chart1

Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11

Sheet1

hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

China Nigeria

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

MIL TONS

Chart1

China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23

Sheet1

Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200

Philippines EU CotedIvoire

SaudiArabia

Iran Iraq

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1800
2000
800
1100
1700
1556
1786
1816
1850
1900
950
1150
1300
1350
1500
1459
1601
1300
1400
1450
1400
1300
1100
1600
1300
1080
1000
930
1050
1100

Sheet1

Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

201213 201314 201415 201516 201617 201718

Consumption Production Imports

2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd

1000 TONS

Chart1

Consumption
Production
Imports
25099
14305
11988
26514
14387
12658
27141
15193
11355
27701
15701
12129
29427
16397
13915
30096
16025
1428

Sheet1

The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1000$1100$1200

US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade BVietnams 5 Percent Brokens

December 2017 first week only All prices quoted ldquofree-on-boardrdquo vessel at local port Sources Thai quotes US Ag Counselor Bangkok US and Vietnam quotes Creed Rice Market Report

$TON

Chart1

US No 2 Long-grain
Thai 100 Grade B
Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
417
335
307
689
615
615
689
574
413
527
602
405
534
538
386
565
501
468
52242
500
475
611
629
554
589
587
408
646
575
400
633
461
363
609
401
385
555
434
420
486
383
353
508
379
381
470
373
345
460
377
357
514
524
409
565
413
390

Sheet1

PART 2

THE US 201718 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points

bull Declining prices and historic flooding at planting plus small impacts from late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes resulted in a 27-percent drop in US long-grain harvested area California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains historic snowpack and resulting flooding

bull A 20-percent drop in all rice US production is projected to pull US supplies down more than 15 percent from the 201617 near-record level

bull Total usemdashdomestic and residual use plus exportsmdashis projected to decline 12 percent with both categories projected to be smaller

bull Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 33 percent with the stocks-to-use ratio of 142 percent near-normal

bull Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and short-grain in California are projected to be higher in 201718 than in 201617

Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1000 ACRES)
167
187
130
160
231
174
118
194
149
395
428
415
458
536
426
1093
1521
1291

Sheet1

Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

TEXAS

MISSOURI

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

CALIFORNIA

ARKANSAS

Million cwt (rough rice)

2015

2016

2017

Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production November 2017 National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA

Chart1

2017
2016
2015
Million cwt (rough rice)
10521
13766
8964
1184
15352
12212
8496
13929
10594
27255
2839
28791
39388
47394
37877
80882
105314
9771

Sheet1

A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulledUS production down 20 percent in 201718

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT MILL ACRES

Chart1

PRODUCTION
HARVESTED AREA
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
182742
3792
133356
236
159367
2781
171599
2804
21527
3314
194585
2821
184941
2617
178586
2391

Sheet1

After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

IMPORTS 1 SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2

201718 are forecasts 1 Rough basis 2 Does not include seed useSource World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

IMPORTS 1
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
07
117
3
39
62
68
9264
93
14834
13446
19218
154
21063
18025
245
217

Sheet1

US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

9293 9596 9899 0112 0405 0708 1011 1314 1718

Carryin Production Imports

Mill CWT

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

Chart1

Carryin
Production
Imports
27408
1797
62
31629
1739
77
27913
1844
106
28484
21527
13191
23683
232362
13204
39315
198388
239
36499
243104
18338
36423
189953
23104
46046
178382
245

Sheet1

Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1

0

30

60

90

120

150

0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS

Rough-rice basis 201718 are forecasts 1 Domestic use includes a residual component Sources World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE
EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
117501
83214
113408
124597
122692
108847
128079
90764
12764
94384
136921
112553
119041
106617
134438
96253
115
103

Sheet1

Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617

Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World

Product-weight Does not include groats meal or flour Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture Global Agricultural Trade System httpsappsfasusdagovgatsdefaultaspx

1000 TONS

Chart1

Mexico
Other Latin America
Rest-of-World
9674655
7166919
162438223
20935296
36373646
205324215
3573258
58585202
17654079
50487238
70556204
199317081
80249501
159019167
21584228
78628983
128464568
207521201
70517249
118607902
155843595
8871311
10536295
17324621
9420397
16039462
1750828

Sheet1

Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

9091 9495 9899 0203 0607 1011 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

MILLED RICE EXPORTS
ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
66566
4816
8408
17732
61085
25753
81767
4283
58652
32112
77793
3776
63904
32349
67
36

Sheet1

US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9091 9293 9495 9697 9899 0001 0203 0405 0607 0809 1011 1213 1415 1718AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT

Chart1

LONG-GRAIN
MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
61579
9803
69756
9451
8372
18092
57374
20932
71448
1539
65661
17553
10071
23886
83996
24851
72
18764
67999
26385
77957
34596
7678
30837
68537
27717
74
29

Sheet1

Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
7073
1365
7502
8152
484
5823

Sheet1

However US long-grain exports were 9 percent abovea year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
322
59
6922
531
113
570

Sheet1

While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017

Milled Brown Rough

Product-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

1000 TONS

Chart1

Milled
Brown
Rough
3853
1307
58
2842
371
123

Sheet1

Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

IRAQ

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

CENTRAL AMERICA

HAITI

MEXICO

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Long-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
1072
0
523
338
1106
180
2097
2334
205
1724
3161
2062

Sheet1

But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Libya

Jordan

Turkey

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Dec 1 2016

Nov 30 2017

1000 tonsProduct-weight Shipments plus outstanding sales Source Foreign Agricultural Service US Dept of Agriculture weekly US Export Sales report

Medium- and short-grain

Chart1

Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016
0
128
449
544
06
747
248
246
42
1455
1589
1755

Sheet1

US Export Opportunities and Concerns

bull Will Venezuela remain a top buyer of US rice Venezuela has been a critical market for US rice in recent years despite political turmoil

bull Will competition from South American exporters in Mexico and Central America increase

bull Any additional US sales to Iraq

bull Any US sales to Iran

bull US sales to China

bull Will Turkey and Libya return as buyers of US rice

US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718

AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR

ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE

Rough basis 201718 are forecasts Source World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates WAOB USDA

MILL CWT PERCENT

Chart1

ENDING STOCKS
STOCKS-TO-USE
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
31372
206
24588
151
25945
147
27244
151
27477
13
26768
112
42992
183
30419
137
41079
194
48526
2108
30928
142

Sheet1

US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain

201718 are forecasts Source Quick Stats NASS USDA httpquickstatsnassusdagov

$CWT

Chart1

All rice
Long-grain
US medium- and short-grain
67
694
619
915
937
882
561
584
515
765
73
949
127
11
188
163
154
192
128
121
148

Sheet1

Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0809 0910 1011 1112 1213 1314 1415 1516 1617 1718

CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3

201718 are projected 1 Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 200809 market year 2 October-September market year 3 August-July market year Source Quick Stats data base NASS USDA httpwwwnassusdagovQuick_Stats

$CWT

Market years 2

Chart1

CALIFORNIA 2
OTHER STATES 3
274
182
195
157
208
15
184
143
184
147
207
157
216
144
181
112
137
101
155
123

Sheet1

PART 3

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE US 201819 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule

bull All 201819 domestic forecasts are from the 2017 Agricultural Baseline Projections located at httpwwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

bull All Baseline forecasts are based on the November 2017 WASDE

bull The full report and the global trade tables will be released in February 2018

bull USDA will release updated domestic supply and use forecasts for 201819 at the 2018 Agricultural Outlook Forum in February

bull The first US and global WASDE forecasts for 201819 will be released in May 2018

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook

bull Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current policies Based on November 2017 WASDE

bullndash Carryin for both classes of rice is projected down sharply

from 201718 and below recent 5-year averages

ndash Planted area expected to increase 17 percent to 29 million acres with long-grain (2175 million acres) accounting for most of the expansion Medium and short grain area projected at 725000 acres and Californiarsquos area is projected to return to normal Total harvested area projected to increase 20 percent

ndash All rice yield increases almost 3 percent based on 10-year trends by class 2nd highest on record Long-grain yield projected to rise the most

201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued

ndash Production increases more than 23 percent to 220 mcwt with long grain projected to increase almost 28 percent to 161 mcwt and medium and short projected to increase 135 percent to 59 mcwt

ndash Imports are expected to increase 08 percent with Asian aromatic rice classified as long-grain accounting for all of the increase

ndash Total US rice supplies are expected to increase more than 10 percent

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook

ndash Big increase projected for total domestic amp residual use mostly due to a larger crop

ndash Long-grain accounts for the bulk of the expected increase in domestic use

ndash Increased exports of both class of rice with medium- and short-grain increasing at the fastest pace

201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued

ndash A substantial increase in US ending stocks with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the increase

ndash Farm prices for both classes of rice in the South and in California are projected to decline in 201819 mostly due to the much larger US supplies

For More InformationPlease Go To

bull The Economic Research Service Home Page http wwwersusdagov

bull World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report httpswwwusdagovocecommoditywasde

bull Grains World Markets and Trade Reports httpswwwfasusdagovdatagrain-world-markets-and-trade

bull Production Supply and Distribution data base httpsappsfasusdagovpsdonlineappindexhtmlapphome

bull The Rice Topics Page httpwwwersusdagovtopicscropsriceaspx

bull Long-Term Agricultural Projections 201818-202728 httpswwwusdagovocecommodityprojectionsindexhtm

  • US Rice Growers Face Higher Prices and Tighter Supplies in 201718
  • PART 1
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Overview
  • Global rice supplies in 201718 are projected to be record high
  • Global 201718 Rice Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Contractions
  • Global 201718 Harvested Area Economic Rationale for Expansions
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
  • The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
  • Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
  • China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
  • However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
  • Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
  • hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
  • About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
  • Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
  • Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
  • After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
  • hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
  • Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
  • Rice consumption production and imports are projected to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • The US price difference over Asian exporters has been high since late spring
  • PART 2
  • The US 201718 Rice Market Main Points
  • Harvested rice area declined in all reported States in 2017
  • Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the decline in US rice production in 2017
  • A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area pulled US production down 20 percent in 201718
  • After 2 years of decline US rice imports are projected to increase in 201718
  • US rice supplies are projected to drop more than 15 percent in 201718
  • Both US rice exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 201718 1
  • Latin America typically accounts for about 60 percent of US rice exports
  • Both US milled- and rough-rice exports are projected to decline in 201718
  • US exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 201718
  • Through November 30 US all-rice exports were 9 percent below a year earlier with rough-rice most of the decline
  • However US long-grain exports were 9 percent above a year earlier with milled rice all of the increasehellip
  • While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 42 percent below a year earlier through November 30
  • Through November 30 US long-grain sales and shipments to Iraq Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago
  • But medium- and short-grain sales were well behind last year to Northeast Asia N Africa and Middle East
  • US Export Opportunities and Concerns
  • US all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 33 percent in 201718
  • US season-average farm prices for both classes ofrice are projected to be higher in 201718
  • Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher in 201718
  • PART 3
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSource and release schedule
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketSupply-Side Outlook--Continued
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook
  • 201819 US Rice MarketDemand and Price Outlook--Continued
  • For More InformationPlease Go To
CALIFORNIA 2 OTHER STATES 3
0809 2740 1820
0910 1950 1570
1011 2080 1500
1112 1840 1430
1213 1840 1470
1314 2070 1570
1415 2160 1440
1516 1810 1120
1617 1370 1010
1718 1550 1230
0809 0809
0910 0910
1011 1011
1112 1112
1213 1213
1314 1314
1415 1415
1516 1516
1617 1617
1718 1718
All rice Long-grain US medium- and short-grain
199091 $670 $694 $619
$758 $783 $700
$589 $587 $591
$798 $793 $809
$678 $687 $670
9596 $915 $937 $882
$996 $1060 $837
$970 $1020 $852
$889 $879 $918
$593 $570 $662
200001 $561 $584 $515
$425 $410 $482
$449 $415 $590
$808 $760 $994
$733 $734 $729
0506 $765 $730 $949
$996 $947 $1210
$1280 $1240 $1460
$1680 $1490 $2480
$1440 $1290 $1840
1011 $1270 $1100 $1880
$1450 $1340 $1710
$1510 $1450 $1740
1314 $1630 $1540 $1920
$1340 $1190 $1830
$1220 $1120 $1530
$1040 $964 $1290
1718 $1280 $1210 $1480
199091 199091 199091
758 783 7
589 587 591
798 793 809
678 687 67
9596 9596 9596
996 106 837
97 102 852
889 879 918
593 57 662
200001 200001 200001
425 41 482
449 415 59
808 76 994
733 734 729
0506 0506 0506
996 947 121
128 124 146
168 149 248
144 129 184
1011 1011 1011
145 134 171
151 145 174
1314 1314 1314
134 119 183
122 112 153
104 964 129
1718 1718 1718
8788 9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1415 1718
ENDING STOCKS 31372 26744 26310 24588 27408 39444 25945 31629 25035 27244 27913 22076 27477 28484 38979 26768 23683 37710 42992 39315 29492 30419 36499 48467 41079 36423 31831 48526 46468 46046 30928
STOCKS-TO-USE 20600 15900 16500 15100 16900 22700 14700 15800 13300 15100 14600 11000 13000 14200 17900 11200 10900 16300 18300 18000 127 137 157 194 194 1634 146 2108 2119 1856 142
8788 8788
26744 159
2631 165
9091 9091
27408 169
39444 227
9394 9394
31629 158
25035 133
9697 9697
27913 146
22076 11
9900 9900
28484 142
38979 179
0203 0203
23683 109
3771 163
0506 0506
39315 18
29492 127
0809 0809
36499 157
48467 194
1112 1112
36423 1634
31831 146
1415 1415
46468 2119
46046 1856
1718 1718
Libya Jordan Turkey Taiwan Korea Japan
Nov 30 2017 0000 44900 0600 24800 42000 158900
Dec 1 2016 12800 54400 74700 24600 145500 175500
Libya Libya
Jordan Jordan
Turkey Turkey
Taiwan Taiwan
Korea Korea
Japan Japan
IRAQ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA CENTRAL AMERICA HAITI MEXICO
Nov 30 2017 107200 52300 110600 209700 205000 316100
Dec 1 2016 0000 33800 180000 233400 172400 206200
IRAQ IRAQ
COLOMBIA COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA VENEZUELA
CENTRAL AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA
HAITI HAITI
MEXICO MEXICO
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 385300 284200 -2624
Brown 130700 37100 -7161
Rough 58000 12300 -7879
574000 333600 -4188
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 322000 531000 6491
Brown 5900 11300 9153
Rough 692200 570000 -1765
1020100 1112300 904
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
Dec 1 2016 Nov 30 2017
Milled 707300 815200 1526
Brown 136500 48400 -6454
Rough 750200 582300 -2238
1594000 1445900 -929
670300 768400
Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016 Dec 1 2016
Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017 Nov 30 2017
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
9091 61579 9803 7138
55606 10931 6654
9293 69756 9451 7921
58613 19979 7859
9495 83720 18092 10181
65507 17734 8324
9697 57374 20932 7831
72251 15420 8767
9899 71448 15390 8684
70284 18564 8885
0001 65661 17553 8351
74280 20424 9500
0203 100710 23886 12394
80354 22716 10465
0405 83996 24851 11043
92166 22686 11680
0607 72000 18764 9225
79448 25814 10663
0809 67999 26385 9565
74275 34083 11015
1011 77957 34596 11900
66707 34171
1213 76780 30837
61892 31400
1415 68537 27717
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 74000 29000
9091 9091
55606 10931
9293 9293
58613 19979
9495 9495
65507 17734
9697 9697
72251 1542
9899 9899
70284 18564
0001 0001
7428 20424
0203 0203
80354 22716
0405 0405
92166 22686
0607 0607
79448 25814
0809 0809
74275 34083
1011 1011
66707 34171
1213 1213
61892 314
1415 1415
75929 31029
78719 37931
1718 1718
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
9091 66566 4816 7138
60206 6331 6654
74061 5146 7921
74946 3646 7859
9495 84080 17732 10181
72557 10684 8324
65575 12731 7831
61559 26112 8767
9899 61085 25753 8684
63626 25222 8885
60421 22793 8351
62544 32160 9500
0203 81767 42830 12394
68717 34353 10465
75038 33809 11043
81404 33449 11680
0607 58652 32112 9225
67599 37663 10663
62751 31633 9565
68007 40351 11015
1011 77793 37760 11900
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 63904 32349
67680 39278
74168 42482
1718 67000 36000
9091 9091
60206 6331
74061 5146
74946 3646
9495 9495
72557 10684
65575 12731
61559 26112
9899 9899
63626 25222
60421 22793
62544 3216
0203 0203
68717 34353
75038 33809
81404 33449
0607 0607
67599 37663
62751 31633
68007 40351
1011 1011
67912 32966
72539 34078
65273 28019
1415 1415
6768 39278
74168 42482
1718 1718
9091 9394 9697 9900 0203 0506 0809 1112 1617
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 814 9420397
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1356 1595 16039462
Rest-of-World 1624 1474 1913 2053 2084 1835 1765 1409 1502 1993 1798 1693 2158 1591 1958 2075 1393 1724 1558 1931 2048 1732 1693 1593 1364 1527 1750828
Other Latin America 717 631 401 364 1186 705 586 1341 1308 706 628 1118 1590 1478 1313 1285 1177 1254 1186 1286 1121 1054 1320 1003 1332 1611
Mexico 97 142 242 209 331 332 357 431 339 505 544 643 802 739 707 786 798 898 705 844 862 887 850 780 793 813
9091 9091 9091
14211183 63108313 147403474
24164852 40085506 191273391
9394 9394 9394
33064242 118584969 208408216
33221315 70493647 183548057
9697 9697 9697
43119498 134136824 140929774
33898911 130844189 150153776
9900 9900 9900
54383098 62842762 179807032
64302189 11183876 169307943
0203 0203 0203
73874615 147826208 159089534
70709777 131290115 195754373
0506 0506 0506
79752806 117712501 139311568
89821592 125369689 172373348
0809 0809 0809
84354273 128551427 19314851
8623408 11206264 204794289
1112 1112 1112
8504153 13199689 16933209
7799536 10033929 15925506
7932114 13557768 13644457
8137771 15952778 15273313
1617 1617 1617
DOMESTIC amp RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
0001 117501 83214
123262 94704
0203 113408 124597
114954 103070
0405 122692 108847
119832 114853
0607 128079 90764
126849 105262
0809 127640 94384
124435 108358
1011 136921 112553
110810 100878
1213 119041 106617
124356 93292
1415 134438 96253
112376 106958
131380 116650
1718 115000 103000
0001 0001
123262 94704
0203 0203
114954 10307
0405 0405
119832 114853
0607 0607
126849 105262
0809 0809
124435 108358
1011 1011
11081 100878
1213 1213
124356 93292
1415 1415
112376 106958
13138 11665
1718 1718
Column1 Carryin Production Imports
9293 274080 1797000 62000 213308
394440 1561000 69000 202444
259450 1978000 81000 231845
9596 316290 1739000 77000 213229
250350 1716000 105000 207135
272440 1830000 93000 219544
9899 279130 1844000 106000 222913
220760 2060270 101050 238208
274770 1908720 108500 229199
0112 284840 2152700 131910 256945
389790 2109600 148340 264773
267680 1998970 150420 241707
0405 236830 2323620 132040 269249
377100 2228330 171340 277677
429920 1945850 205810 258158
0708 393150 1983880 239000 261603
294920 2037330 192180 252443
304190 2198500 190230 269292
1011 36499 243104 18338 297941
48467 184941 19359 252767
41079 199939 21063 262081
1314 36423 189953 23104 249480
31831 222215 24647 278693
48526 193148 24128 265802
46468 224145 23463
1718 46046 178382 24500
9293 9293 9293
39444 1561 69
25945 1978 81
9596 9596 9596
25035 1716 105
27244 183 93
9899 9899 9899
22076 206027 10105
27477 190872 1085
0112 0112 0112
38979 21096 14834
26768 199897 15042
0405 0405 0405
3771 222833 17134
42992 194585 20581
0708 0708 0708
29492 203733 19218
30419 21985 19023
1011 1011 1011
48467 184941 19359
41079 199939 21063
1314 1314 1314
31831 222215 24647
48526 193148 24128
46468 224145 23463
1718 1718 1718
8283 8788 9293 9798 0203 0809 1213 1718
IMPORTS 1 0700 0900 1600 2200 2600 3000 3800 4380 4790 5320 6200 6910 8100 7680 10521 9264 10596 10105 10850 13191 14834 15042 13204 17134 20581 23900 19218 19023 18338 19359 21063 23104 24647 24128 23463 24500
SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2 117 174 279 350 348 390 481 557 536 576 680 740 840 760 1080 930 970 860 9569 11060 13446 13480 11058 14636 16409 19261 15400 15684 13636 17852 18025 18937 18690 21950 18130 21700
8283 8283
09 174
16 279
22 35
26 348
8788 8788
38 481
438 557
479 536
532 576
9293 9293
691 74
81 84
768 76
10521 108
9798 9798
10596 97
10105 86
1085 95691239222
13191 110604717605
0203 0203
15042 1348
13204 11058
17134 14636
20581 16409
239 19261
0809 0809
19023 15684
18338 13636
19359 17852
1213 1213
23104 18937
24647 1869
24128 2195
23463 1813
1718 1718
8182 8687 9192 9697 0102 0607 1112 1718
PRODUCTION 182742 153637 99720 138810 134913 133356 129603 159897 154487 156088 159367 179658 156110 197779 173871 171599 182992 184443 206027 190872 215270 210960 199897 232362 222833 194585 198388 203733 219850 243104 184941 199939 189953 222215 193148 224145 178586
HARVESTED AREA 3792 3262 2169 2802 2492 2360 2333 2900 2687 2823 2781 3132 2833 3316 3093 2804 3103 3257 3512 3039 3314 3207 2997 3325 3364 2821 2748 2976 3103 3615 2617 2679 2469 2933 2585 3097 2391
129600 2356
159900 2933
154500 2731
156100 2897
159400 2884
179700 3176
156110 2920
197800 3353
173871 3121
171599 2824
182992 3125
184443 3285
206027 3531
190872 3060
215270 3334
210960 3240
199897 3022
232362 3347
222833 3384
194585 2838
198388 2761
203733 2995
219850 3135
243104 3636
184941 2689
199939 2700
189953 2490
221035 2939
219000 2915
8182 8182
153637 3262
9972 2169
13881 2802
134913 2492
8687 8687
129603 2333
159897 29
154487 2687
156088 2823
9192 9192
179658 3132
15611 2833
197779 3316
173871 3093
9697 9697
182992 3103
184443 3257
206027 3512
190872 3039
0102 0102
21096 3207
199897 2997
232362 3325
222833 3364
0607 0607
198388 2748
203733 2976
21985 3103
243104 3615
1112 1112
199939 2679
189953 2469
222215 2933
193148 2585
224145 3097
1718 1718
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 11 12 8 27 39 81
2016 14 15 14 28 47 105
2015 9 12 11 29 38 98
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
TEXAS MISSOURI MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA CALIFORNIA ARKANSAS
2017 167 160 118 395 458 1093
2016 187 231 194 428 536 1521
2015 130 174 149 415 426 1291
TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI
MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI
LOUISIANA LOUISIANA LOUISIANA
CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS
US No 2 Long-grain Thai 100 Grade B Vietnams 5 Percent Brokens
JULY 07 417 335 307 407
420 334 316 410
438 332 320 428
471 336 461
500 349 490
521 368 511
543 384 390 533
590 474 467 580
MAR 08 689 615 615 679
841 929 875 831
951 949 1088 941
903 789 850 893
879 756 743 869
827 709 588 817
816 701 566 806
742 634 465 732
NOV 08 689 574 413 679
657 543 419 647
617 598 399 607
587 615 433 577
538 615 455 528
559 572 460 549
538 547 457 528
527 592 415 517
JULY 09 527 602 405 517
553 553 393 543
547 544 384 537
518 513 410 508
551 550 465 541
582 605 531 572
572 596 482 562
587 576 425 577
MAR 10 534 538 386 524
511 502 353 501
491 478 356 481
476 463 363 466
452 465 356 442
438 472 410 428
475 494 458 465
OCT 10 565 501 468 555
60922 534 493 599
62025 550 496 610
60371 534 480 594
56513 538 469 555
53427 509 455 524
APR 11 52242 500 475 512
52655 498 476 517
54676 531 463 537
58167 557 506 572
629 576 555 619
67261 614 568 663
64229 615 573 632
NOV 11 611 629 554 601
574 608 498 564
551 557 448 541
542 552 426 532
532 563 413 522
532 554 437 522
565 614 426 555
579 612 415 569
JULY 12 589 587 408 579
601 579 433 591
615 579 455 605
618 571 450 608
620 573 449 610
620 569 414 610
632 575 405 607 FIRST YEAR CHANGE
FEB 13 646 575 400 621
657 573 399 632
669 571 383 644
686 558 376 661
664 536 369 639
650 519 389 625
634 493 391 609
SEPT 13 633 461 363 608
626 445 395 601
616 433 403 591
620 428 427 595
615 418 404 590
604 423 398 579
609 416 388 584
APR 14 609 401 385 584
609 399 403 584
602 405 406 577
582 421 431 557
578 447 454 553
565 449 450 540
555 446 440 530
NOV 14 555 434 420 530
545 424 392 520
532 423 374 507
506 421 355 481
510 413 367 485
510 408 358 485
499 393 355 474
JUNE 15 486 383 353 461
499 396 350 474
511 382 340 486
565 366 329 535
576 373 364 551
549 371 376 551
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 508 379 381
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 470 373 345
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 460 377 357
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 514 524 409
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 565 413 390
JULY 07 JULY 07 JULY 07
420 334 316
438 332 320
471 336
500 349
521 368
543 384 390
590 474 467
MAR 08 MAR 08 MAR 08
841 929 875
951 949 1088
903 789 850
879 756 743
827 709 588
816 701 566
742 634 465
NOV 08 NOV 08 NOV 08
657 543 419
617 598 399
587 615 433
538 615 455
559 572 460
538 547 457
527 592 415
JULY 09 JULY 09 JULY 09
553 553 393
547 544 384
518 513 410
551 550 465
582 605 531
572 596 482
587 576 425
MAR 10 MAR 10 MAR 10
511 502 353
491 478 35625
476 463 3625
452 465 356
438 472 410
475 494 458
OCT 10 OCT 10 OCT 10
60922 534 493
62025 550 496
60371 534 480
56513 538 469
53427 509 455
APR 11 APR 11 APR 11
52655 498 476
54676 531 463
58167 557 506
629 576 555
67261 614 568
64229 615 573
NOV 11 NOV 11 NOV 11
574 608 498
551 557 448
542 552 426
532 563 413
532 554 437
565 614 426
579 612 415
JULY 12 JULY 12 JULY 12
601 579 433
615 579 455
618 571 450
620 573 449
620 569 414
632 575 405
FEB 13 FEB 13 FEB 13
657 573 399
669 571 383
686 558 376
664 536 369
650 519 389
634 493 391
SEPT 13 SEPT 13 SEPT 13
626 445 395
616 433 403
620 428 427
615 418 404
604 423 398
609 416 388
APR 14 APR 14 APR 14
609 399 403
602 405 406
582 421 431
578 447 454
565 449 450
555 446 440
NOV 14 NOV 14 NOV 14
545 424 392
532 423 374
506 421 355
510 413 367
510 408 358
499 393 355
JUNE 15 JUNE 15 JUNE 15
499 396 350
511 382 340
565 366 329
576 373 364
549 371 376
517 365 377
498 371 359
509 381 354
MAR 16 MAR 16 MAR 16
509 385 374
510 410 376
510 418 374
498 431 366
479 409 350
474 388 334
OCT 16 OCT 16 OCT 16
463 367 346
455 380 337
453 382 340
460 376 353
MAR 17 MAR 17 MAR 17
465 384 350
485 414 360
500 455 405
JULY 17 JULY 17 JULY 17
543 406 400
548 411 390
563 403 396
565 404 403
DEC 17 DEC 17 DEC 17
Consumption Production Imports
201213 25099 14305 11988
201314 26514 14387 12658
201415 27141 15193 11355
201516 27701 15701 12129
201617 29427 16397 13915
201718 30096 16025 14280
201213 201213 201213
201314 201314 201314
201415 201415 201415
201516 201516 201516
201617 201617 201617
201718 201718 201718
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Philippines 1800 2000 800 1100 1700
EU 1556 1786 1816 1850 1900
Cote dIvoire 950 1150 1300 1350 1500
Saudi Arabia 1459 1601 1300 1400 1450
Iran 1400 1300 1100 1600 1300
Iraq 1080 1000 930 1050 1100
Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines
EU EU EU EU EU
Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire Cote dIvoire
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Iran Iran Iran Iran Iran
Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq
China Nigeria
2010 0366 2000 366 2000
0575 2550 575 2550
2012 2900 3400 2900 3400
3500 2400 3500 2400
2014 4450 3200 4450 3200
5150 2100 5150 2100
2016 4600 2100 4600 2100
5300 2500 5250 2500
2018 5250 2300 5250 2300
2010 2010
0575 255
2012 2012
35 24
2014 2014
515 21
2016 2016
53 25
2018 2018
Exports
1961 0428
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
1280
1971 1292
1426
2631
2060
1630
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981 0509
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991 0689
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001 1847
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011 0487
0267
0447
0393
0262
03680
11000
2018 11000
1961
0458
0684
0762
0985
1487
1577
1299
1179
128
1971
1426
2631
206
163
0876
1033
1435
1053
1116
1981
0446
0328
1125
1019
0957
1301
0698
0315
0326
1991
0933
1431
1518
0032
0265
0938
3734
2708
2951
2001
1963
2583
088
0656
1216
134
0969
0783
0619
2011
0267
0447
0393
0262
0368
11
2018
BURMA CAMBODIA
2001 670 0
02 1002 0
03 388 10
04 130 300
05 190 200
06 47 360
07 31 460
08 541 315
09 1052 820
10 700 750
11 1075 860
12 1357 900
13 1163 1075
14 1688 1000
15 1735 1150
16 1300 1150
17 3100 1150
2018 3000 1250
2001 2001
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06 06
07 07
08 08
09 09
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
2018 2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
India 11046 10040 11600 11600
Thailand 9779 9867 11000 10200
Vietnam 6606 5088 6600 6500
Pakistan 4000 4000 3600 3800
USA 3381 3373 3400 3400
Burma 1735 1300 3100 3000
India India India India
Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand
Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam
Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan
USA USA USA USA
Burma Burma Burma Burma
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
1980 12413 45989 269911 12413
11726 42192 277923 11726
10731 37657 284966 10731
12515 40764 307011 12515
10740 33905 316763 10740
1985 11485 36117 317998 11485
13063 41332 316052 13063
11572 36721 315130 11572
14015 42205 332068 14015
11484 33257 345312 11484
1990 12115 34476 351406 12115
14453 40910 353287 14453
14876 42039 353862 14876
15837 44654 354660 15837
21058 57837 364092 21058
1995 19820 53746 368774 19820
19110 50241 380370 19110
26646 68778 387420 26646
25633 64910 394899 25633
22831 55782 409288 22831
2000 23988 60088 399217 23988
26982 67557 399397 26982
28652 75775 378119 28652
27441 69919 392466 27441
28257 70500 400810 28257
2005 29648 70947 417889 29648
31329 74567 420147 31329
31444 72513 433634 31444
28963 64373 449924 28963
31332 71207 440012 31332
2010 36496 78101 450072 35151
39977 85422 467431 39929
39492 83406 473539 39496
2013 44117 92203 478540 44123
42643 89009 479156 42649
40440 84865 472572 40105
42517 95116 486730 46296
2017 43419 94198 483469 45542
1980 1980
11726 42191542262
10731 37657124008
12515 40764011713
1074 33905475071
1985 1985
13063 41331806158
11572 36721353092
14015 42205210981
11484 33256880734
1990 1990
14453 40910081605
14876 4203898695
15837 4465403485
21058 57837030201
1995 1995
1911 50240555249
26646 68778070311
25633 64910268195
22831 55782236469
2000 2000
26982 67556841939
28652 75775086679
27441 69919432511
28257 7049973803
2005 2005
31329 74566758777
31444 72512764221
28963 64373094123
31332 71207148896
2010 2010
39977 85422233442
39492 83406013021
2013 2013
42643 89008590104
4044 84865375012
42517 95116388963
2017 2017
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Vietnam 10 08 12 10 13 13 14 20 20 15 19 18 12 13 13 16 10 12
United States 09 12 08 08 12 14 13 09 10 12 15 13 12 10 16 15 15 10
Pakistan 0594 0308 025 0635 0309 0296 07 0563 1215 12 0223 05 03 0679 1209 1119 1279 1179
20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001 20002001
245 3116 0843 1216 0308
11 3302 1168 0829 025
108 1706 1025 0761 0635
0405 0405 0405 0405 0405
1052 3594 1317 137 0296
1143 251 1392 1266 07
13 2707 2018 0935 0563
0809 0809 0809 0809 0809
205 61 147 1184 12
235 5615 1941 1514 0223
1112 1112 1112 1112 1112
255 12808 1163 1156 03
228 11999 1299 1025 0679
1415 1415 1415 1415 1415
184 8403 1555 1475 1119
2055 4853 1005 1462 1279
1718 1718 1718 1718 1718
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China 940 950 960 905 855 845 885 928 953 974 930 792 633 439 389 368 359 378 385 405 425 475 540 605 690 785 865 945
India 145 140 110 145 145 115 95 105 120 177 250 245 110 108 85 105 114 130 190 205 235 251 255 228 178 184 206 185
Thailand 09 11 08 03 02 09 07 10 11 20 22 31 33 17 23 36 25 27 48 61 56 93 128 120 113 84 49 38
Rest of World 172 165 153 137 174 212 215 234 257 261 264 262 254 252 242 256 255 274 309 280 283 271 264 267 297 273 261 240
1220 1278 1326 1380 1407
199091 199091 199091 199091
95 14 1129 16543
96 11 0803 15337
905 145 0255 13656
855 145 0186 17365
199596 199596 199596 199596
885 95 0706 21544
92817 105 1049 23364
95287 12 106 25661
9735 177 1961 26053
200001 200001 200001 200001
79156 245 3116 26153
63311 11 3302 25403
43915 108 1706 25238
38931 85 2312 24248
200506 200506 200506 200506
35915 1143 251 25542
37762 13 2707 27436
38546 19 4787 3085
40534 205 61 28027
201011 201011 201011 201011
475 251 933 27146
54 255 12808 26422
605 228 11999 26728
69 178 1127 29699
785 184 8403 27308
865 2055 4853 26108
201718 201718 201718 201718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
8081 526 194 52589 271346
505 180 50506 280006
568 204 56774 278698
693 235 69311 294474
877 294 87659 298415
8586 977 317 97702 307955
1033 333 103305 310449
1053 336 105260 313175
1116 343 111646 325682
1206 359 120604 336354
9091 1266 367 126641 345369
1267 359 126672 353256
1231 345 123140 357394
1189 331 118911 358889
1176 322 117551 365452
9596 1181 321 118077 368248
1203 318 120250 378197
1277 336 127730 379940
1340 345 134008 388621
1431 357 143064 400232
1467 371 146676 395605
1329 322 132925 413148
0203 1030 252 103016 408028
817 197 81659 413823
740 181 73991 408478
765 184 76491 415389
754 179 75397 421241
0708 809 189 80905 428126
932 213 93183 437646
952 217 95161 438034
999 224 99878 445355
1112 1091 238 109076 458233
1187 256 118730 463885
1220 257 122027 475243
1278 270 127769 473414
1326 284 132611 467730
1380 287 138011 481330
1718 1407 293 140725 480755
8081 8081
50506 180374706256
56774 203711544396
69311 235372223015
87659 293748638641
8586 8586
103305 332759970237
10526 336106011016
111646 342806786989
120604 358562704769
9091 9091
126672 358584142944
12314 344549712642
118911 331330857173
117551 321659205587
9596 9596
12025 317955985902
12773 336184660736
134008 344829538291
143064 357452677447
146676 370763766889
132925 321737004657
0203 0203
81659 197328326362
73991 181138274277
76491 184143056268
75397 178987800333
0708 0708
93183 212918660287
95161 217245693257
99878 224266034961
1112 1112
11873 255947055844
122027 256767590475
127769 269888511958
132611 283520407072
138011 286728439948
1718 1718