bull Ideal rainfall adequate reservoir levels higher farm-gate prices boosted Thailandrsquos rice area 44 percent to a near-normal 107 million hectares after severe drought in 201415 and 201516 sharply reduced output
bull Sri Lankarsquos rice area is expected to increase 48 percent (325K ha) to 10 million hectares from the 201617 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted by severe flooding and then severe drought
bull Continued high producer price support in China increased area 4000 hectares despite huge stocks and record imports
bull Both Burma and Cambodia continue their long-term area recovery amp export expansion
The 201718 Global Rice Market Decreases in Production
Country Quantity Percent
India 265 million tons -24 percent
Bangladesh 158 million tons -46 percent
United States 145 million tons -204 percent
Brazil 563000 tons -67 percent
Egypt 500000 tons -104 percent
Philippines 486000 tons -42 percent
Madagascar 394000 tons -161 percent
South Korea 225000 tons -54 percent
Japan 180000 tons -23 percent
Indonesia 150000 tons -04 percent
Colombia 138000 tons - 80 percent
The 201718 Global Rice Market Increases in Production
Country Quantity Percent
Thailand 120 million tons +63 percent
China 115 million tons + 08 percent
Sri Lanka 903000 tons +452 percent
Vietnam 900000 tons +43 percent
Burma 300000 tons +24 percent
Peru 261000 tons +119 percent
Paraguay 141000 tons +281 percent
Bolivia 97000 tons +703 percent
Cote drsquoIvoire 95000 tons +71 percent
Cambodia 50000 tons +10 percent
Pakistan 50000 tons +07 percent
The 201718 Global Rice Market Domestic Use and Ending Stocks
bull At 4808 million tons global consumption (including a residual) is 06 million tons below the 201617 record and 27 million tons below 201718 production
bull Indonesia Thailand and the United States account for most of the expected decline in global consumption (including a residual component) in 201718
bull In contrast rice consumption in 201718 is projected to increase in China Egypt India Sub-Saharan Africa and Vietnam
bull Global ending stocks of 1407 million tons are projected up 27 million tons from 201617 and are the highest since 200001
Global ending stocks in 201718 areprojected to be the highest since 200001
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
8081 8586 9091 9596 0203 0708 1112 1718
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
201718 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
MILL TONS PERCENT
Chart1
Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
52589
193807905773
97702
31726063873
126641
366683170754
118077
320645325976
103016
252472869509
80905
188974741081
109076
238036108268
140725
292716664413
Sheet1
China is expected to hold more than two-thirds of global ending stocks in 201718
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
199091 199596 200001 200506 201011 201718
China India Thailand Rest of World
MIL TONS
201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
Chart1
China
India
Thailand
Rest of World
94
145
0941
172
845
115
085
21227
93009
25
2247
2642
36783
1052
3594
25594
425
235
5615
28263
945
1845
3803
23972
Sheet1
However ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are expected to continue declining
0
10
20
30
40
50
20002001 0405 0809 1112 1415 1718
India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan
MIL TONS
201718 are forecasts Milled basis Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
Chart1
India
Thailand
Vietnam
United States
Pakistan
25
2247
0978
0887
0594
85
2312
1292
1211
0309
19
4787
1961
0977
1215
251
933
1826
1303
05
178
1127
1259
1552
1209
1845
3803
1155
0982
1179
Sheet1
Global rice trade in CY 2018 is projected to drop 16 percent to 455 million tons the second highest on record
Exporter 2018 Exports (1000 tons) Change from 2017
Burma 3000 -100
Thailand 10200 -800
Uruguay 900 -190
Vietnam 6500 -100
Australia 325 +145
Pakistan 3800 +200
Cambodia 1250 +100
India 11600 Unchanged record
United States 3400 Unchanged
China 1100 Unchanged
hellipwith Iran Nigeria and Sri Lanka expected to import less rice in 2018
Importer 2018 Imports (1000 tons) Change from 2017
Iran 1300 -300
Nigeria 2300 -200
Sri Lanka 400 -400
Brazil 600 -200
Bangladesh 1200 -150
Malaysia 900 -100
Kenya 700 -100
China 5250 -50
Cote drsquoIvoire Record 1500 +150
Philippines 1700 +600
Guinea 800 +75
Iraq 1100 +50
About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually double the share 25 year ago
0123456789101112
05
101520253035404550
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2017
Rice Trade Trade Share of Production
2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distributiondatabase Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
MILL TONS PERCENT
Chart1
Rice Trade
Trade Share of Production
12413
45989233488
11485
3611657935
12115
34475791535
1982
5374565452
23988
60087621519
29648
70947069676
36496
78100837199
44117
92203368579
43419
94198387073
Sheet1
Thailand and India are projected to remainthe top rice exporting countries in 2017 and 2018
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma
2015
2016
2017
2018
2017 and 2018 forecasts These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
MIL TONS Major Exporters
Chart1
2015
2016
2017
2018
11046
1004
116
116
9779
9867
11
102
6606
5088
66
65
4
4
36
38
3381
3373
34
34
1735
13
31
3
Sheet1
Burmarsquos 2017 rice exports are the highest since before WWII
0200400600800
1000120014001600180020002200240026002800300032003400
2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018
BURMA
CAMBODIA
2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
1000 TONS
Chart1
BURMA
CAMBODIA
670
0
1002
0
388
10
130
300
190
200
47
360
31
460
541
315
1052
820
700
750
1075
860
1357
900
1163
1075
1688
1000
1735
1150
1300
1150
3100
1150
3000
1250
Sheet1
After more than decade of decline Chinarsquos rice exports now exceed 1 million tonshellip
000
050
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2018
Exports
2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
Mil tons
Chart1
Exports
0428
1292
0509
0689
1847
0487
11
Sheet1
hellipand China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country followed by Nigeria
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
China Nigeria
2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
MIL TONS
Chart1
China
Nigeria
0366
2
29
34
445
32
46
21
525
23
Sheet1
Cote drsquoIvoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 2018
0200400600800
1000120014001600180020002200
Philippines EU CotedIvoire
SaudiArabia
Iran Iraq
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2017 and 2018 are forecasts Source Production Supply and Distribution database Foreign Agricultural Service USDA httpwwwfasusdagovpsd
1000 TONS