us resiliency council part 1: mission, organization, and strategy for an earthquake performance...
TRANSCRIPT
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US Resiliency Council
PART 1: Mission, Organization, and Strategy for an Earthquake Performance Rating System
Presented by
Ron MayesCo-Founder of USRC
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The Earthquake Risk Exposure Dilemma
• People lack the information they need to make better risk management choices for themselves
• This has serious and large societal consequences
• Current choices are made within a complex, entrenched system
Improving this situation requires new risk information to be created, delivered and shared in ways that can significantly
impact what people believe and do.
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Potential Buildings at Risk
• Unreinforced masonry buildings • 30%+/- of concrete buildings, those built before 1976• Pre-cast and flat slab concrete structures• Concrete tilt-ups pre-1997• Welded steel moment frame buildings pre-1994 • Multistory wood frame with tuck under parking• Soft story buildings
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Barriers to Understanding and Communicating the Risks
• Predicting and conveying the earthquake performance of a building, and its implications, are difficult tasks
• Most people have mistaken beliefs about what current code means for performance
– Common perception: buildings will perform better than they actually will
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Quote from 1990’s Uniform Building Code
(emphasis added)
“These Recommendations primarily
are intended to safeguard against
major failures and loss of life, not to
limit damage, maintain functions, or
provide for easy repairs.”
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Three Types of Hazard Input Assumptions That Can Be Used to Assess Performance
Design Basis – Code Design Level 2/3 MCE with return periods ranging from 350 to 800 years
Scenario EventSpecific Magnitude Earthquake – e.g. 7.5
Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)Collapse Prevention is Code Goal
2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years but with an upper bound cap.
Return periods ranging from 1500 to 2500 years
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Quotes from ASCE 7-10 Seismic Code(2000 onwards)
• There is a low likelihood of collapse in the Maximum considered earthquake (MCE)
• Life threatening damage will be unlikely in the Design level earthquake, which is 2/3 the MCE
• Given the occurrence of an MCE, there will be substantial damage in many structures rendering these unfit for occupancy or use
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Christchurch Earthquake NZ 22 Feb. 2011
• September 2010 was the design earthquake • February 2011 was the maximum credible event
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70% of buildings in downtown are now demolished
• Did building codes provide the performance expected ? – Depends who answers the
question– Structural engineers say yes – Public are shocked and say no
Christchurch Earthquake NZ 22 Feb. 2011
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The Future: Performance Based Design
ATC 58: a 10-year $12M FEMA Funded Project
Earthquake performance expressed in
Deaths, Dollars, and Downtime
Results and implications are expressed in ways that decision makers can understand, afford, and implement.
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Confluence of Three Major Developments
• ATC 58 provides inputs for a multi-dimensional rating
• Rating systems currently available– Existing building: – New buildings:
• Mayor Garcetti’s State of the LA City Speech (4/10/14)– “Develop the first rating system in the US to detail the earthquake
safety of our buildings”
Without these tools a discussion of implementing a rating system would not have been possible five years ago.
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US Resiliency Council
Founded in 2011 to be the administrative vehicle for implementing rating systems for buildings (similar to USGBC-LEED)
Strategy:
– Use information and market forces to incentivize action
– Bring together diverse stakeholders and technical experts into leadership and advisory positions
– Promote quality, usability, and fairness to increase public acceptance, adoption and implementation
Vision:
– Expandable to multi-hazards (hurricanes/tornadoes, flood, blast etc)
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OwnersLendersInsurersTenantsElecteds
RegulatorsContractorsEngineers
Current USRC Structure – 501(c)3 non-profit
Technical Advisory Board
Board of Directors
Accredited Professionals
Peer Reviewers
Executive Director
Users of Ratings
Stakeholders Advisory Board
EngineersProfessional
Organizations
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Committed Founding Members of the USRC
• All major professional organizations in EQ Engineering – SEAOC, NCSEA, EERI, ATC, LA Tall Building Council, PEER
• San Francisco City and major structural engineering firms. Current Founding Members of USRC
Firm Firm Arup Newmark Capital ATC Partner Engineering &Science Bentley PEER Brandow and Johnston Rutherford & Chekene Buehler & Buehler San Francisco City Core Brace Saif Hussain & Associates CSI Saunders Retrofit Constractors David Friedman SEAOCDegenkolb SEAOCC DIS SEAONC EERI SEAOSCEPS SEAOSD Forell/Elsesser SGH Hilti SikaHohbach-Lewin & Assoc. Simpson Strong TieHolmes Group SOM John A Martin Structural Focus Kate Stillwell Thornton Tomasetti KPFF Walter P. Moore LA Tall Building Council Weidlinger Marx Okubo ZFA Nabih Youssef & Assoc.
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USRC’s Strategy and Theory of Change for Earthquake Performance Ratings
Review, approve, adapt, and utilize
existing evaluation methodologies
Provide training, accreditation,
quality control, and information access
services
Make valid, usable,
trustworthyrisk information
accessible to people who
need it
Spurs actions and systemic change that reduces seismic risk in the building stock
USRC…
and…
to… which then…
Activities OutputsIntermediate and
Long Term Outcomes
Overall increased disaster resilience in the broader community.
leading to…
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Potential Seismic Rating “Stakeholders”
Includes :• On-site—tenants, lessees, employees • Building professionals—engineers, architects, contractors• Real estate—
o developers, brokers, property managerso owners and potential owners (investors, corporations,
governments, individuals)
• Financial sector—lenders, insurers, re-insurers• Public sector—utilities, planners, local agencies, schools,
religious institutions, federal agencies
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Evidence of Stakeholder Perceptions: 2011 ATC 71-2 Workshop
Over 40 participants representing:
Earthquake Performance Rating System Workshop (FEMA, SEAONC)
Owners
Banking
Insurance
Real EstateEngineering
Architecture
Universities
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Key Elements of a Rating SystemATC 71-2 Workshop
DDDMultiple Dimensions
Peer Review
Appropriate Cost Structure
Credibility of System
Communication Format
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ATC 71-2 Workshop Findings
• Significant majority of attendees were in favor of having a system
• Implement it ASAP
Key Unresolved Issues:
Who should produce a rating?
How can quality, credibility, and fairness be assured?
How much will it cost?
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ATC 71-2 Workshop Findings: Rating Dimensions
• Report 3 Dimensions– Safety– Repair Cost– Time to Regain Function
• Potentially combine 2 or more dimensions into 1 rating for certain uses– e.g., a city or business may choose to use just 1 dimension such as
safety
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Two Rating Systems Have Been Developed
• 6-year SEAONC effort to develop Earthquake Performance Rating System (EPRS) for existing buildings– Translates the results of an ASCE 31/41 evaluation
• REDi system developed by Arup for the design of new buildings – Provides recommendations for performance goals that exceed
those inherent in current code requirements, and a planning process for achieving them
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Attributes of a SEAONC and REDi Rating
Safety
Repair Cost
Time to Regain Function
Three Dimensions – similar to ATC 58
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USRC Rating Definitions Provide a Standardized Way to Communicate Expected Performance
Cod
e
Min
imu
mLe
nding Healthcar
eEventually Multi-hazard: Seismic Wind Flood …
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USRC Rating Types
Owner Wants a Rating
Verified Rating Issued by USRC Full peer review
Costs TBD
Professional Rating Issued by USRC
1 in X projects peer reviewed Costs TBD
For display on building and marketing material or
Required by Jurisdiction
For use by financial and real estate professionals
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USRC Ratings Process
Owner Wants a Rating
Owner hires a USRC “Certified” Engineer
Certified Engineer performs evaluation. Sends USRC
prelim. rating with fee TBD
USRC Organizes Peer Review and Issues
Verified Rating
USRC Tracks and Issues Professional Rating.
USRC also organizes random audit of 1 in X projects
Engineer may use Appeal Process if they believe Rating is better
than methodology provides, Costs TBD
Anyone can check with USRC on Validity of Rater
and Rating – no details revealed
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“Certification” Process
• Many organizations including LEED require formal accreditation to perform evaluations
• It is important to have competent licensed engineers with the needed experience and expertise to perform ratings analyses
• SEAOC has been asked to recommend required credentials
• These recommendations will be reviewed and approved by the USRC Technical and Stakeholders Advisory Boards, and then implemented by USRC
Different terms can be used to describe this process, e.g., certification, credentialing, accreditation. Does it matter to you which?
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Peer Review
• SEAOC has also been asked to recommend a peer review and appeal process
• Peer review will be mandated for all Verified Ratings and 1 in 7 (+/-) Professional Ratings
• Qualifications of peer reviewers will include overall experience and appropriate expertise with specific building types
• The review be completed blind
• SEAOC recommendations will be reviewed and approved by the Technical and Stakeholders Advisory Boards
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Highest Priority Areas Needing Your Input
USRC has reviewed the available rating systems
The next step is to tailor them for appropriate contexts of use and to build coalitions for implementation:
1. Identify the applications for the ratings
2. Address barriers to use
3. Develop trust and external support
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1. Organizational structure– inclusivity, credibility, adaptability
2. USRC’s overall approach to adding value– Training, accreditation, and peer review processes– How it is bridging stakeholders and technical groups together– Multi-hazard potential
3. Collect specific issues to address in next segment
Part 1 Discussion: Your Comments & Questions So Far
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US Resiliency Council
PART 2: Rating System Details and
Appropriate Applications
Presented by
Ron MayesCo-Founder of USRC
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Outline of Topics For Your Feedback
RATING DEFINITIONS &
DIMENSIONS
Making sure ratings portray
understandable and
meaningful consequences
DDDAPPLICATIONS
Identifying the most appropriate and promising program contexts
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REDi™ Rating System
A framework to implement
“resilience-based earthquake
design” for achieving
‘beyond-code’ resilience
objectives.
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Key Precepts of REDi Rating System
• “True resilience” can only be achieved by adopting enhanced design and planning measures
• Promote speedy functional recovery by targeting beyond-code performance targets
• Resilience objectives are for a consistent return period, have confidence levels and are described in terms understandable to stakeholders
• Assessment of recovery times must consider externalities otherwise they will be unrealistic
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Key Precepts of REDi Rating System
• Assessment of recovery times and financial losses must consider performance of all damageable non-structural components and contents
• The loss assessment must be robust (based on P-58) and could be applicable to all buildings, including existing buildings
• Try not to over-complicate or over-simplify what it takes to achieve a resilient building
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REDi Resilience Objectives
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The REDi Roadmap - Resilience by Design and Preparedness
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External Verification of a REDi Resilience Assessment
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Defining Post-Earthquake Recovery States
Re-occupancy
Functionality
Full recovery
Time after earthquake
Refer to “Glossary of Terms” in REDi Guidelines for full definition
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Paths to Re-occupancy and Functional Recovery if Building Undamaged
Utilities Restored or Back-up Systems
Earthquake Occurs
Functional RecoveryRe-occupancy
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Paths to Functional Recovery if Building Damaged
Earthquake OccursInspection
$$$
EngineersPermitting
Contractors
Long-lead Items
Building Repairs
Impeding Factors
Earthquake Occurs
Functional Recovery
Utilities Restored or Back-up Systems
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Consideration of Externalities for Functionality
Features Code Platinum Gold Silver
Utility disruption1
Impeding Factors
Impact from damaged adjacent buildings and non-building structures Rec. Rec.
Not located in high liquefaction or tsunami hazard zone Rec. Rec.
Other ground failures: landslide, fault-rupture, avalanche, etc
Business impact assessment incl. employee availability, site access, continuity of transit networks, and supply chain
Rec. Rec.
1 See REDi Resilience Objectives
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Consideration of Externalities for Functionality
Features Code Platinum Gold Silver
Utility disruption
Impeding Factors
Explicitly considered in Downtime assessment
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History of SEAONC’sEarthquake Performance Rating System
• 6-year SEAONC effort to develop Earthquake Performance Rating System (EPRS) for Existing Buildings– Translates the results of an ASCE 31/41 evaluation
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Insight #1
We do not need a new evaluation tool…
Rating System Insight #1
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Attributes of the SEAONC Rating System
• Multi-objective: 3 Dimensions– Safety– Repair Cost– Time to Regain Function
• Symbolic: star count, 5 levels for each dimension – This assists in reaching non-native English speakers
• Positively-framed– “the more stars the better”– A “No Rating” option
• Anchored on a very low performance level; “typical” or “average” performance level is unknown
Attributes of SEAONC’s EPRS
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Resilience Dimensions
Economic
Social
Safety
Damage
Function
3 Rating Dimensions
Semi-independent consequences:All spring from the same damage
Resilience Definitions Rating Dimensions
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Five levels within Each Dimension
• Enough to capture (almost) the full range of performance • Still relatively broad bins• Not quintiles
– Counts of buildings in each bin are unknown– No expectation that every level will be full of or have same # of
buildings
Five Levels within Each Dimension
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Pragmatic Distinctions
• Safety– Clearest expression of owner/tenant interest– Most critical for correcting impressions about what “to code”
means
• Repair cost– Industry and regulatory precedent– More intuitive to owners than “estimated loss”
• Recovery– Re-occupancy functional recovery full recovery
Pragmatic Distinctions
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A “No Rating” Option
• Because the methodologies are limited– ASCE 31 says nothing about Repair Cost
• Allows flexibility
• A useful cost saver and clarifying feature for ratings programs
A “No Rating” Option
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The 3-part EPRS Rating Levels
Safety5« Entrapment
Unlikely
4« Injuries Unlikely
3« Death Unlikely
2« Death in isolated locations
1« Death in multiple locations
NR No rating
Repair cost5« Within operating
budget (< 5%)
4« Under deductible (< 10%)
3« Industry SEL standard (< 20%)
2« Repairable(< 50%)
1« Substantial(50%+)
NR No rating
Recovery5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
EPRS Dimensions & Thresholds
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What an EPRS Rating Represents
• “EPRS Ratings are intended to correspond to average performance given a single earthquake with ground shaking of that used for the design of a new building.”
• A prediction is not a promise
• Degree of uncertainty differs for each dimension
What an EPRS Rating Means
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Clarifying the Assumed Seismic Hazard
• “Design earthquake” not “Maximum credible”
• Design earthquake is 2/3 MCE
• Open question:– Should MCE performance be considered for safety but not the
other dimensions?
Clarifying the Assumed Seismic Hazard
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SEAONC Rating Scope
In:– Structure, Nonstructural Elements, Geologic– Some fixed equipment– Associated non-building structures
Out:– Most contents– Utilities, other “externalities” beyond
immediate on-site structures• different to REDi system
ASCE 31/41 Scope of Evaluation
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SEAONC Ratings Definitions: Safety
«««««
Entrapment (highly) unlikely.Performance would not lead to conditions commonly associated with earthquake-related entrapment.
«««« Injuries (highly) unlikely Performance would not lead to conditions commonly associated with earthquake-related injuries requiring more than first aid.
«««
Deaths (highly) unlikely.Performance would not lead to conditions commonly associated with earthquake-related death.
«« Death in isolated locations expected.Performance in certain locations within or adjacent to the building would lead to conditions known to be associated with earthquake-related death.
«
Death in multiple or widespread locations expected.Performance as a whole would lead to multiple or widespread conditions known to be associated with earthquake-related death.
NR No rating.The rating methodology does not justify or support a Safety Rating, or no Safety Rating was requested.
EPRS Rating Definition: Safety
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Safety Dimension Definition and Comments
• How to balance clear communication with acknowledgement of uncertainties
• What does it take—in terms of building performance and the analysis burden—to get more stars?– To exceed ««« safety rating, knowledge of additional
factors (falling hazards, factors affecting egress) is necessary
– These are typically excluded from a conventional structural evaluation
Safety Dimension Definition and Issues
DDD
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SEAONC Ratings Definitions: Repair Cost
«««««
Within typical operating budget.Performance would lead to conditions requiring earthquake-related repairs commonly costing less than 5% of building replacement value.
«««« Within typical insurance deductible.Performance would lead to conditions requiring earthquake-related repairs commonly costing less than 10% of building replacement value.
«««
Within industry Scenario Expected Loss (SEL) limit.Performance would lead to conditions requiring earthquake-related repairs commonly costing less than 20% of building replacement value.
««
Repairable damage.Performance would lead to conditions requiring earthquake-related repairs commonly costing less than 50% of building replacement value.
«
Substantial damage.Performance would lead to conditions requiring earthquake-related repairs costing more than 50% of building replacement value (as used by the International Building Code as an upgrade trigger).
NR No rating.The rating methodology does not justify or support a Repair Cost Rating, or no Repair Cost Rating was requested.
EPRS Rating Definition: Repair Cost
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Safety Dimension Definition and Comments
• Appropriate duration of rating relevance– Should a rating “expire” or carry a disclaimer for
like standards of engineering or financial practice, property values, and prices changes?
• How well can methodologies estimate cost in the wake of a major regional event?
Repair Cost Dimension Definition and Issues
DDD
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• “Recovery” is a bumpy process that goes through stages• The EPRS rating focuses on basic resumption of uses
SEAONC Ratings Definitions: RecoveryEPRS Defines Recovery as Functionality
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The Recovery Triangle
Time
Functionality orService Level
TEQTfullTreoccupancy Tfunctional
The Recovery Triangle
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SEAONC Ratings Definitions: Recovery
«««««
Within hours (or within hours to days).Performance would support the building’s basic intended functions within hours following the earthquake.
«««« Within days (or within days to weeks) .Performance would support the building’s basic intended functions within days following the earthquake.
«««
Within weeks (or within weeks to months).Performance would support the building’s basic intended functions within weeks following the earthquake.
««
Within months (or within months to years).Performance would support the building’s basic intended functions within months following the earthquake.
«
Within years.Performance would support the building’s basic intended functions within years following the earthquake.
NR No rating.The rating methodology does not justify or support a Recovery Rating, or no Recovery Rating was requested.
EPRS Rating Definition: Recovery DDD
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Unpredictable Recovery Bottlenecks and Hurdles
Earthquake OccursInspection
$$$
EngineersPermitting
Contractors
Long-lead Items
Building Repairs
Impeding Factors
Earthquake Occurs
Functional Recovery
Utilities Restored or Back-up Systems
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• Wording: Time to regain functionality?
• The concept and prediction of functionality:– Understandable
• Basic fitness for intended use, feasible to operate—assuming utilities
– Usefulness• Much more helpful than predicted “green, yellow, or red” tag• Predicting full recovery timetable is not feasible
• How important is it to include impeding factors, even if doing so makes the prediction less certain and harder to produce?
Recovery Dimension Definition and Comments
Recovery Dimension Definition & Issues
DDD
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Rating System Insight #2
• One rating system cannot serve every rating program.
• Rating program varieties:– “Mandatory” or “voluntary”– By an authority or by parties– Public or private information
• A comprehensive system is more adaptable to diverse perspectives– Focus on stakeholder needs– Develop “Specialized Ratings”
Rating System Insight #2
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Initial ASCE 31 Mapping
Safety5« Entrapment Unlikely
4« Injuries Unlikely
3« Death Unlikely
2« Death in isolated locations
1« Death in multiple locations
NR No rating
Repair cost5« Within operating
budget (< 5%)
4« Under deductible (< 10%)
3« Industry SEL standard (< 20%)
2« Repairable(< 50%)
1« Substantial(50%+)
NR No rating
Recovery5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
Full Life Safety< Life Safety
Full Immediate Occupancy
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More Translation Mappings
Safety
5« No entrapment
4« No injuries
3« No death
2« Death in isolated locations
1« Death in multiple locations
NR No rating
Repair cost
5« Within operating budget (< 5%)
4« Under deductible (< 10%)
3« Industry SEL standard (< 20%)
2« Repairable(< 50%)
1« Substantial(50%+)
NR No rating
Recovery
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
Reoccupancy
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
REDi Gold REDi Platinum
ASCE 41-16 EHR
Operational
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“Specialized Ratings”
• REDi Gold– Immediate reoccupancy– Functional recovery < 1 month– SEL < 5%– Injury “unlikely”
“Specialized Ratings”
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Specialized Ratings: SPUR
• SPUR Level C– Safe
• “Significant structural damage”
– Usable after repairs• Yellow tag likely• 4 month to 3 year repair
time likely
Specialized Ratings: SPUR
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Specialized Rating Mappings
Safety
5« No entrapment
4« No injuries
3« No death
2« Death in isolated locations
1« Death in multiple locations
NR No rating
Repair cost
5« Within operating budget (< 5%)
4« Under deductible (< 10%)
3« Industry SEL standard (< 20%)
2« Repairable(< 50%)
1« Substantial(50%+)
NR No rating
Recovery
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
Reoccupancy
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
REDi Gold SPUR C
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Specialized Targets
Safety
5« No entrapment
4« No injuries
3« No death
2« Death in isolated locations
1« Death in multiple locations
NR No rating
Repair cost
5« Within operating budget (< 5%)
4« Under deductible (< 10%)
3« Industry SEL standard (< 20%)
2« Repairable(< 50%)
1« Substantial(50%+)
NR No rating
Recovery
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
Reoccupancy
5« Within hours
4« Within days
3« Within weeks
2« Within months
1« Within years
NR No rating
L.A. Residential?
PML?
S.F. “Soft Story”
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Key Rating Program Features
1. What is the universe of affected properties? • code year, building type, occupancy class, use,
#stories, #units, and/or ownership
2. Who performs the rating analysis and why?
3. Who will have access to the rating information? • Only the parties to a transaction, future buyers and
tenants, insurers, everyone ?
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Program Examples: Soft-Story Policies in the SF Bay Area
Note:• All these programs started from some kind of inventory• Inventories can be based on more or less broad and distinct criteria , goals, &
assumptions, which directly affects the number of buildings involved or persons burdened in some way as well as the likelihood of different classification errors
• Berkeley’s program may still progress into a mandatory retrofit phase
Inventory Only
Notification Only
Mandatory Screening
Mandatory Evaluation
Mandatory Retrofit
Santa Clara County
San Leandro Oakland Berkeley Fremont
Richmond AlamedaSan
Francisco
The Coercion Spectrum
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Applications Where a USRC Rating System Might Be Used: Finding Appropriate Fits
Short Term Possibilities:• New construction as part of permit process
– Voluntarily by developers if market demand is perceived– Mandated for buildings with some criteria
• Rating as part of a real estate transaction (commercial)• Alternative to the current PML process• Public buildings
Unlikely in the Short Term:• Mandated for all existing buildings
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1. Dimensions– Understandability and meaningfulness
• Terminology• Handling of uncertainty
– Re-occupancy/functional recovery• Impeding factors• Externalities
2. Applications – Appropriate contexts or program formats
3. Collect specific issues to address in written comments and next round
Part 2 Discussion: Your Comments & Questions on the Rating System & Programs
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Validity
UtilityFairness
• Understandable• Comprehensive• Affordable• Decisive
• Accuracy• Precision• Reliability
• Consistency• Appropriate Access• Credibility/Trust• Downsides Minimized• Accountability• Proportionate Outcomes
Desirable Features in Risk Communication
S. Rabinovici
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Validity
UtilityFairness
Key Elements of USRC’s Approach
• Multidimensional• Market value• Personalized
• Technical Vetting• Training• Accreditation• Periodic Update
• Standardization• Peer Review• Verification• Open Process
S. Rabinovici
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Follow-up to this meeting
LA City program timeline
Next SAC meeting– Implementation– Barriers to use– Fostering external support
Your Recommendations
Next Steps: Written Feedback and 2nd SAC Meeting
Who else should we be talking to?
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Multi-Level Qualitative
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The Value of a Rating Is a Net Effect
Consider an owner—Having a rating can have many desirable and undesirable effects:– Possible public relations benefit– New awareness of multiple types of risk exposure– New knowledge about potential implications of not taking action
and about what taking action might entail or result in– New information (or desire for it) about how their building
compares to others– Raises the question of whether to keep the building as is, upgrade
it, or sell– May create new disclosure or liability concerns– Raises insurance issues– May decrease how much they can sell for or rent out
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Examples:
• LA Restaurant Hygiene
• Water Quality Report Cards
• Hospital Safety
• School Quality
Grading or Report Card Systems
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Simple Labels or Warnings
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Too Many Approaches Muddles the Message