US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment

US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment

Washington OfficeWashington Office

Craig PiercyANS Washington Representative

November 20, 2008

“The Monster”A Pessimist’s View

Obama on Nuclear

“I start off with the premise that nuclear energy is not optimal. I am not a nuclear energy proponent.”

Remarks at Town Hall Event, Newton, IA, 12/30/07

What is “safe nuclear power?”

• Containment structures hardened against aircraft impact?

• All spent fuel in dry cask storage?

• More guards, bigger guns?

• Additional fire protection, etc.

Obama on Yucca Mountain

“The selection of Yucca Mountain has failed, the time for debate on this site is over, and it is time to start exploring new alternatives for safe, long-term solutions based on sound science. .”

October 2007 Letter to Sens. Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer

NRC Commissioners

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Svinicki (R)

Jaczko (D)

Lyons (R)

McGaffigan (D)

Klein (R)

*Vertical lines are June 30th of each year

President Obama

Co

mm

issi

on

er

More bad news…• Financial/credit crisis continues…• Waxman ousts Dingell from House Energy and

Commerce Cmte. Chair.• Nuclear approps battles ahead• Senate close to 60 vote supermajority• Loan guarantees delayed/uncertain• Enviro groups challenging NRC DC/COL

processes: North Anna (VA), Victoria (TX), Harris (NC).

• Waste confidence/standard contract?

The US nuclear moratorium1978 last nuclear plant order in US1979 last 2 construction permits issued1993 last operating license issued1995 last 2 orders cancelled

259 Reactors ordered124 Cancelled orders132 Operating licenses issued 28 Plants shut down104 Operating plants today 36 Nuclear Engineering programs terminated

No geological repositoryNo commercial recycling

Access to energy = quality of life

4,000 8,000 12,000

Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita

0.3

1.0

India

China

Pakistan

Russia

GermanyAustralia

Canada

UKFrance Japan

U.S.

0.6

80% of the world’s population is below 0.8 on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI)

Pessimist’s ViewAssumptions:• Yucca derailed.• Hopes trump realities on climate legislation.• Hill/DOE Bias against federal financial

assistance for new builds.• Risk averse/interventionalist NRC

Result:• 5-10 year delay for new plants.

“The Birds”An Optimist’s View

People are OK with nuclear power…

24

74

49

46

20

40

60

80

1983 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 Apr-2008

Sep-2008

Favor Oppose

Bisconti Research with GfK

… and think we should build more plants

69

47

29

49

0

20

40

60

80

Jun-9

8

Oct

-99

Jan-0

1

Mar

-01

Jul-0

1

Oct

-01

Feb-0

2

Jun-0

2

Oct

-02

May

-03

Oct

-03

Apr-04

Oct

-04

May

-05

Mar

-06

Sep-0

6

Apr-07

Oct

-07

Apr-08

Sep-0

8

Agree Disagree

Bisconti Research with GfK

Obama’s latest comment on nuclear

“We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them an additional 80% by 2050.

“Further, we will invest $15 billion each year to catalyze private sector efforts to build a clean energy future. We will invest in solar power, wind power, and next generation biofuels. We will tap nuclear power, while making sure it’s safe. And we will develop clean coal technologies. .” (emphasis added)

Address to the Governors' Global Climate SummitNovember 18, 2008

The Climate is Warming

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

NUCLEAR

WI ND

BI OMASS

HYDRO

SOLAR PV

NATURAL GAS

OI L

COAL

LI GNI TE

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

NUCLEAR

WI ND

BI OMASS

HYDRO

SOLAR PV

NATURAL GAS

OI L

COAL

LI GNI TE

GHGgCeq/kWh

Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005

low carbon

EPRI PRISM Report

What about the nuclear waste ? “3 yards and no cloud of dust”

Optimist’s View

Assumptions:• Tacit understanding that nuclear

expansion is critical to carbon control.• “Do No Harm” approach to licensing

regulation and finance.• Loan guarantee availability.Result:• Slow initial growth, followed by

acceleration.

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn't violate too many of Newton's Laws!”

— Alan Kay

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses

— Henry Ford

Resources

• www.ans.org

• www.nuclearadvocacynetwork.org/

• neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/

• fedappts@ans.org