us monetary time-line 1913 - 2013
DESCRIPTION
A brief chronology of significant events pertaining United States monetary policy and administration. Especially notiable are events of the 1970's and the systemic distortions in the American economy to which they gave birth. It is a time trail to the crisis now unfolding.TRANSCRIPT
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
US Monetary Time-Line 1913 – 2013
“The Congress shall have Power…To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;’ - Article I, section 8 of the Constitution of the United States
Dec 23, 1913 President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 (or Owen-Glass Act) - creating the Federal Reserve central
banking system through 12 regional private banks owned by participating commercial banks.
1920–1929 The Federal Reserve Board reduced reserve requirements thereby facilitating an easy credit policy.
Oct 1929 Stock market crash that led to long-term economic depression. But as Milton Friedman said: “Depression … would have been over
in 1931... the Federal Reserve followed a policy which led to …widespread bank failures, and …a reduction in the quantity of
money… by a third.” 1
Mar & Apr
1933
A series of laws and executive orders, the government suspended the gold standard for US$. Anyone holding significant amounts of
gold coinage was mandated to exchange it for the existing fixed price of US dollars, after which the US would no longer pay gold on
demand for the dollar, and gold would no longer be considered valid legal tender for debts in private and public contracts. The
dollar was allowed to float freely on foreign exchange markets with no guaranteed price in gold, only to be fixed again at a
significantly lower level a year later with the passage of the Gold Reserve Act.2
May 12, 1933 Thomas Amendment (Title III) to the Agricultural Adjustment Act ‘granted the president broad discretionary powers over monetary
policy.’ He (probably on Federal Reserve advice) could ‘authorize the open market committee of the Federal Reserve to purchase up to
$3 billion of federal obligations. If open market operations prove insufficient, ‘the president could have the U.S. Treasury issue up
to $3 billion in greenbacks, reduce the gold content of the dollar by as much as 50 percent, or accept $100 million dollars in silver at
a price not to exceed fifty cents per ounce in payment of World War I debts owed by European nations.’3
Jun 16, 1933 The Banking Act of 1933 (sometimes referred to as the Glass–Steagall Act)
Jan 30, 1934 The Gold Reserve Act outlawed most private possession of gold, forcing individuals to sell it to the Treasury, after which it was
stored in United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations. The act also changed the nominal price of gold from
$20.67 per troy ounce to $35 - This remained in place until 1972.
Aug. 19, 1935 The Banking Act of 1935 - strengthened the powers of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the area of credit
management.
Jan 1939 National Economy and The Banking System of the United States4- This document (presented on the floor of Congress) comments on the causal
circumstances that brought about the depressions of 1921, 1929-32, and 1937.
Jul 1-22, 1944, World War II was still in progress when 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. Attendees created the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.5 Participants agreed to adopt a monetary policy maintaining an exchange rate of their
currency within a fixed value in terms of gold.
1951 The Federal Reserve System is granted full autonomy and independence from the Department of Treasury.
Feb 13, 1962 Federal Open Market Committee authorize the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to participate in, and set guidelines for, open
market transactions in foreign currencies. 6
Mar 17, 1968 Two-tiered pricing system for gold established. A market price ran parallel to that set by the US Government.
Nov 5, 1968 Republican nominee, former Vice President Richard Nixon won the1968 United States presidential election.
Oct 17, 1969. On nominating Dr Arthur Burns for Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, President Nixon stated ‘Dr. Burns
has been known for many years as a strong and effective leader in the fight against both inflation and recession’. Dr Burns’
nomination was conditional on him ensuring that American voters had easy access to credit when Richard Nixon was
running for re-election in 1972.7
early 1970 CPI 6% per year
Feb. 1, 1970. Dr Burns began his term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
early 1970s The costs of the Vietnam War and increased domestic spending (facilitated by increased credit creation) accelerated inflation.8
1
New River Media Interview- Milton Friedman, 2000. The First Measured Century. PBS. http://www.pbs.org/fmc/interviews/friedman.htm 2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act 3
David D Web, Oklahoma Historical Society, http://digital.library.okstate.edu/encyclopedia/entries/T/TH007.html 4
Senate document (United States. Congress. Senate) ; 76th Congress, no. 23. Book vi, 108 pages incl. tables. 23 cm. Robert Latham Owen, Published: Washington, U. S. Govt. print. off., 1939. 5
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system 6
Forty-Ninth Annual Report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Covering operations for 1962 7
New River Media Interview- Milton Friedman, 2000. The First Measured Century. PBS. http://www.pbs.org/fmc/interviews/friedman.htm 8
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock Also used for some of the other entries for 1970-1973
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
1970 Foreign arbitrage of the U.S. dollar caused governmental gold coverage of the paper dollar to decline from 55% to 22%.
End 1970 US Foreign Reserves down to $15,200m.9
May 1971 Inflation-wary West Germany was the first member country to unilaterally leave the Bretton Woods system - unwilling to devalue
the Deutsche Mark in order to prop up the dollar. In the following three months, West Germany’s move strengthened its economy.
Simultaneously, the dollar dropped 7.5% against the Deutsche Mark.
FY 1971 Balance-of-Payments deficit $980m and Trade deficit $2,270m10 - The first in Nixon’s Presidency
Due to the excess printed dollars, and the negative U.S. trade balance, other nations began demanding fulfillment of America’s
“promise to pay” – that is, the redemption of their dollars for gold.
Jul 1971 Switzerland redeemed $50 million of paper for gold. France, in particular, repeatedly made aggressive demands, & acquired $191
million in gold, further depleting the gold reserves of the U.S.
Aug 5, 1971, Congress released a report recommending devaluation of the dollar, in an effort to protect the dollar against “foreign price-gougers.”
Aug 9, 1971, As the dollar dropped in value against European currencies, Switzerland unilaterally withdrew the Swiss franc from the Bretton
Woods system
Aug 15, 1971 To preserve the remaining US gold reserves President Nixon ended dollar’s conversion to gold. He also imposed wage and
price control in order to stop inflation.
Dec. 17 and 18,
1971,
Representatives of the Group of Ten, led by US, met at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., and agreed on a
realignment of currencies and a new set of pegged exchange rates. The dollar was devalued in terms of gold, while other currencies
were appreciated in terms of the dollar. On the whole, the dollar was devalued by nearly 10% in relation to the other in the Group
of Ten currencies (United Kingdom, Canada, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and Japan).11
End 1971 US Foreign Reserves down to $14,800m.
1972 Foreign currencies began abandoning the devalued peg against the dollar. US Government gold price $38.
Market average price $58.42.
Nov 7, 1972 President Nixon re-elected in a landslide victory emphasizing a good economy; and his successes in foreign affairs, such as
ending American involvement in Vietnam and establishing relations with China.
FY 1972 Balance-of-Payments deficit $5,260m & Trade deficit $6420m - The second in Nixon’s Presidency.
Feb 1973 A second devaluation of the dollar (by 10%) was announced ($44/ounce). Bretton Woods currency exchange market closed.
US Government gold price $42.2222 per troy ounce.
Mar 1973
America
isolates
its
money
supply
US began implementing Milton Friedman’s proposal for a ‘free floating’ exchange rate system. This isolated America’s
money supply and preserved the remaining US international currency reserves. This also meant that international trade could no
longer add to US international currency reserves, and therefore not add to the nation’s money supply. Growth in the US
economy could now only be achieved by bank credit creation.12
Since then, for nearly four decades, this arrangement has been a boon for banks, and has allowed Americans to increasingly ‘spend
tomorrow’s earnings today’ to buy more than their country has produced.13 Fig 4 is indicative of this distortion of the market - See
1976 Trade Deficit & 1977 Balance of Payments Deficit (Current Account Deficits).
May 1973 US Average GDP growth suggest recession on way (see figure 1 below)
18 Oct 1973 OPEC oil embargo began because of America’s active support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war.
End 1973 Market average price for gold $97.3914
Aug 9, 1974, Richard Nixon resigns in the face of almost certain impeachment.
1974 Trade deficit $5,510m Annual CPI rate over 12%. Market average price for gold $154.
Apr 1975 US Average GDP growth suggest recession fading into stagnation. (See Milton Freidman comment Fig 1)
End 1975 Market average price for gold $160.86
1976 Trade deficit $9490m – The beginning of a continuous run of trade deficits until the present economic crisis.
End 1976 CPI under 7% per year. Market average price for gold $124.74
9
Values for US Foreign and gold Reserves per World Bank data adjusted to 2010 US dollars. Here after significant variations in World Bank data for succeeding four decades tend to reflect market gold prices. For contrast see footnote at entry Dec, 30
2011. Other variations are likely to reflect central bank currency speculative efforts to achieve certain administrative objectives. 10
Balance of payment and Trade deficit data derived from the World bank in current collars 11
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system 12
Impact of the Floating Exchange Rate System on Debt http://www.buoyanteconomies.com/Impact%20of%20floating%20exchange%20rate%20Debt.htm refers. 13
The dependence on bank credit for the economy’s growth has not only causes demand to favour imports, supply skews to focus on exports. As exporters seek to convert their foreign earnings to US dollars they drive up the exchange rate and cause
imports to be cheaper than equivalent goods produced by American industries. It is a major distortion of the market, but it is good for the banks! 14
Market average price for gold are historical rates per http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf.
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
1977 Balance-of-Payments deficit $15,100m –With exception of 1980, 1981, and 1991 it was beginning of a continuous run of BoP
deficits until the present economic crisis.15 See Fig 2. Trade deficit $31,100m
End 1977 Annual CPI 6.7%. Market average price for gold $147. 84.
Mar 8, 1978 Dr Burns retired as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. During his term annual rate of CPI averaged
approximately 9%.16
1978 Balance-of-payments deficit $15,747m Trade deficit $33,927m
1979 Federal funds rate averaged 11.2%.
Indicative of reduced debt that economic recession /stagnation encourages: Balance of Trade deficit dropped to $27,568m.
Aug. 6, 1979 Mr. Paul A. Volcker, jr. began his term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
Mar 31, 1980
Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act gave the Federal Reserve greater control over non-member banks.
This legislation, and the Garn–St. Germain Depository Institutions Act that followed, diminished the distinctions between banks and
other financial institutions in the United States. This legislation is frequently referred to as "deregulation," and it is often blamed
for the failure of over 500 savings and loan associations between 1980 and 198817 - Among other things, deregulation of the
banking industry removed constraints on credit creation by banks. As well as making things even better for banks, it freed
up America’s capacity to buy more than it produces - That is, buy more imports that are cheaper than American products.
(See Mar 1973 entry above, & Fig 4 below) Unfortunately, this reversed the brief improvement trend in US Trade deficits and
Balance of Payments then becoming evident – The descent into debt regained momentum.18
The term ‘Rust Belt’ came into use in the 1980’s to describe the results of Federal Reserve policy initiatives on US manufacturing
industries in the north eastern United States.19
1981 Inflation peaked at 13.5%, and Federal Funds rate peak of 20% in June 1981
Oct 15, 1982 Garn–St. Germain Depository Institutions Act, (see Mar 31, 1980 entry above)
1983 Inflation lowered to 3.2% but US public debt accelerated –see Fig 3 Market average price for gold $424.00
Trade deficit $67,095m Balance-of-payments deficit $44,222m
Oct 19, 1987 Stock market crash.
1990-1 Recession - As indicated by downturn in GDP growth beginning 1990 to end 1991.20
1991 Indicative of reduced debt that economic recession/stagnation encourages:
Improvement in Trade deficit $26,900m Last Balance-of-Payments surplus $2,851m21
1993 Trade deficit $64,400m Balance-of-Payments deficit $84,783m Market average price for gold $359.77
2003 Trade deficit $504,100m Balance-of-Payments deficit $519,090m Market average price for gold $363.38
2007-2008 Financial Crisis Trade deficits $713,100m and $709,700m
2008 - 2012 Financial crisis escalates into an economic crisis.
Nov 2008 Federal Reserve began its first round of buying financial assets from commercial banks to inject money into the economy – Known
as Quantitative Easing (QE) (See entry Dec 31, 2011 below) Market average price for gold $871.56
FY 2010 Trade deficit $494,737m22 Market average price for gold $1224.53
Nov 2010, Federal Reserve announced a second round of quantitative easing, or "QE2" (See entry Dec 31, 2011 below)
2011 Trade deficit $559,880m23 Balance-of-Payments deficit $473,441m24
Market average price for gold $1571.52
Gross Federal debt $14,800,000m Public Debt $8,500,000m25
Tuesday, Dec 6
2011 President Barack Obama's speech at Osawatomie, Kansas drew attention to Wall Street and American banks’ culpability for much of
the US economic woes. Though not stated, it would seem to implicate the Federal Reserve.
15
Formula for the Current Account Balance at http://www.buoyanteconomies.com/CAD_Formula.htm - Is a paper which presents models that explain ‘how current account deficits are caused when additional money is created which
finances national expenditure in excess of national income (production).’ 16
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_F._Burns 17
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banking_in_the_United_States 18
Trade deficit figures dropped in 1979 to $27,568m, and 1980 to $25,533m before increasing; and Balance of Payments rose in 1980 to $2,127m and 1981 to $4,810m then descended again into deficit figures until a brief exception in 1991 of
$2,051m. Per World bank data in current dollars. This improvement in Trade and BoP figures is indicative of the correlation of bank credit with buying imports, and recessionary trend, that is, a reluctance to enter into debt. 19
Growth of Debt and Loss of Income in America http://www.buoyanteconomies.com/DebtIncome.htm refers 20
US well into recession before the Gulf War (2 Aug 1990 – 28 Feb 1991) started and its effect on oil prices. 21
Indicative of the recessionary trend is the reluctance of enter into debt. In recessionary times, the correlation of bank credit and buying imports causes this behaviour to be reflected as improved Trade and Balance of Payment outcomes. See 1980
entry as another example of this. See 1991 entry and footnote. 22
Period covered Jan – Dec 2010. US Bureau of Statistics, Economics Report Bureau of Economic Analysis, August 9, 23
Period covered Jan – Dec 2011. US Bureau of Statistics, Economics Report Bureau of Economic Analysis, August 9, 2012 24
World Bank data 25
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/. $14,800,000 million equals $14.8 trillion and $8,5 00,000 million equals $8.5 trillion
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
Dec 30, 2011 U.S. Treasury international reserve assets officially given as totaling $146,665m26
Dec 31, 2011 JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs were the five largest banks in the United States.
Their assets were equal to 56 percent of the U.S. economy, compared with 43 percent five years earlier.27
Entries Mar 1973; Mar 31, 1980; Nov 2008; Nov 2010 above; and Fig. 4 below refer.
Sep 13 2012 Federal Reserve announced a 3rd round of "QE3"28
- If nothing else; this should stimulate growth of the five largest banks’ assets to
equal more than 60% of the US economy. (See entry Dec 31, 2011 above.) est. FY 2012 Trade deficit $590,000m?29
Mar 2013 40th anniversary of dependence on economic growth thru debt & the consequent erosion of economic power30
– Only a few will have reason to celebrate.
Dec 23, 2013
‘A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the
Nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men .., We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of
the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilised world — no longer a Government by free
opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of
small groups of dominant men’ - Woodrow Wilson, 1916 in retrospect of the Federal Reserve Act of 191331
Fig 1 - The Recession of 1973–75 in the USA can be described as a U-shaped recession, because of its prolonged period of weak growth &contraction.[1]
Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product (annualized; seasonally adjusted); Average GDP growth 1947–2009
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%9375_recession
Fig 1 above - President Richard Nixon caused the United States to adopt Milton Friedman’s floating exchange rate
system in March 1973, having encouraged America’s major trading partners to follow suit. Continuing constraints on bank
lending (Banks having not yet been deregulated), and the elimination of the ability to accumulate foreign reserves as
national savings through international trade, stymied the US (and its trading partners) capacity for economic expansion. A
worldwide recession ensued that was to last some two years. The recession is often attributed to the OPEC oil embargo
which began on 18 October 1973 in response to America’s active support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war. The embargo
lasted for 5 months and was undoubtedly the source of major difficulties and costs. However, it was blamed for economic
difficulties that persisted long after.
Milton Friedman recognized that those persistent difficulties had to be policy related and already in place before the oil
embargo began. As he could not consider that the problem might have any connection to him, Friedman attributed it to
Richard Nixon’s 15 August 1971 decision: “…in my opinion, the wage and price controls …....was a major
26
$146,665m equals $146.665 billion. Treasury gold reserves of 261.499 million troy ounces continues to be valued at Feb1973 rate of $42.2222 per troy ounce. Note 3 of US Treasury monthly statement refers. Those same reserves would be worth
$410,950.9m at the 2011 market average price rate of gold of $1571.52. Regardless still inadequate in relation to the US debt burden 27
Big Banks: Now Even Too Bigger to Fail By David J. Lynch on April 19, 2012 Bloomberg Businessweek Politics & Policy http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-19/big-banks-now-even-too-bigger-to-fail. Also Wipedia. 28
On the Psychology of Economic Incompetence - http://www.buoyanteconomies.com/EconomicIncompetence.htm refers 29
Based on January to June figures for 2012. US Bureau of Statistics, Economics Report Bureau of Economic Analysis, August 9, 2012 30
Economic Power and Military Power - http://www.buoyanteconomies.com/Economy&MilitaryPower.htm 31 National Economy and The Banking System of the United States, p100, ‘A few quotations of notable leaders’. Book vi, 108 pages incl. tables. 23 cm. Robert Latham Owen, Published: Washington, U. S. Govt. print. off. 1939. Senate document
(United States. Congress. Senate) ; 76th Congress, no. 23.
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
reason why we had both inflation and stagnation during the rest of the 1970s.”32
As can be seen in
Fig 1, the recession itself was gaining momentum by May 1973, five months before the oil embargo, and it was largely
over by April 1975. Unfortunately, as Milton Friedman indicated, symptoms associated with the recession continued to
plague the American economy for many more years – This was because the underlying (systemic) cause remained in place
that has continued to take its toll on the American economy.
Fig 2 – Debt to GDP ratios across country groups 1880-2009 - IMF Working Paper WP/10/245 ‘A historical public debt database’
Fig 2 above - The IMF chart shows that the turning point where debt to GDP starts to rise for G-20 countries is 1973, the
year that the US floated its exchange rate. It reveals a noticeably persistent upward trend in debt levels of advanced G20
countries subsequent to 1973. Page 11 of the paper states that "by 1960 . . . the advanced G-20 economy average debt ratio
declined to 50 percent of GDP. . .. Average advanced G-20 economy debt ratios trended down further through the early
1970s; however, debt began to accumulate starting in the mid -1970s, with the end of the Bretton Woods system of exchange
rates and two oil price shocks. This upward trend continued until the current global financial crisis.”
Fig 3 - US Gross Public Debt 1970 to 2011
33
32
New River Media Interview- Milton Friedman, 2000. The First Measured Century. PBS. http://www.pbs.org/fmc/interviews/friedman.htm 33
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com
Relates to Naked Monetarists & Pear-shaped Economies http://www.davidbrown1801nsw.info/nakedmonetarist.htm
Richard Nixon with Milton Friedman (left) &
Arthur Burns of the Federal Reserve in 1968. (photo: Associated Press)
Fig 4 - US Fiscal Deficit, Current Account (Balance of Payments) Deficit,
and Bank Lending- per Buoyant Economies
http://buoyanteconomies.com/USACAD.htm
America is long overdue for a variable exchange rate system
that excludes the market distortions inherent in the present system
and benefits all Americans.
\
John Griffiths
Originated 25 August and updated 30 September 2012
Many thanks to those who have suggested corrections and inclusions and other wise encouraged this effort.
Contact: Gestiefeltbote at gmail.com
.
Gestiefeltbote
A chronology of foxes and hens