u.s. epa disclaimer epa strongly cautions that these study results should not be used to draw...
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U.S. EPA DISCLAIMERU.S. EPA DISCLAIMER
EPA strongly cautions that these study results should not be used to draw conclusions about local exposure concentrations or risk. The results are most meaningful when viewed at the regional or county level; for smaller areas, the study becomes less certain. In addition, these results represent conditions in 1999 rather than current conditions and only include exposures from outdoor sources of particulate matter.
The results provide answers to questions about emissions, ambient air concentrations, exposures and risks across broad geographic areas for the year 1999. As such, they help the EPA identify specific air toxics compounds, and specific source sectors such as stationary sources or mobile sources, which generally produce the highest exposures and risks in the country. But they also are based on assumptions and methods that limit the range of questions that can be answered reliably. They cannot be used to identify exposures and risks for specific individuals, or even to identify exposures and risks in small geographic regions such as a specific neighborhood. These limitations, or caveats, must always be kept in mind when interpreting the results. The results should be used only to address questions for which the assessment methods are suited.
All risk estimates are based on exposure estimates for the median individual within each census tract, which EPA considers to be a "typical" exposure. Some individuals may have substantially higher or lower exposures based on where they spend their time. The study is not designed to quantify these individual extremes.
The Diesel DifferenceThe Diesel Difference
Álvaro Alvarado, Ph.D.
Environmental Protection Agency
BenMAP BenMAP
1. Air Quality Modeling
2. Health Impacts – Epidemiology
3. Valuation
Air Quality ModelingAir Quality Modeling
1999 National Air Toxics AssessmentNon-road and On-road diesel PMStudy Area:
– Philadelphia– Delaware– Montgomery– Chester– Bucks
Air Pollution and HealthAir Pollution and HealthDonora, PA – October 30-31, 1948
– 20 people dead– 7,000 Hospitalized – Half the population
London Fog – December 5-9, 1952– 12,000 people dead– Transportation disrupted– Prize winning cattle dead
EpidemiologyEpidemiologyAmerican Cancer Society StudyAmerican Cancer Society Study
1.2 Million participants 1982 - 1998 Controlled for: Age, gender, weight, smoking
history, alcohol use, occupation, diet, education Each 10 µg/m3 PM
– 4% increase in all cause mortality– 6% increase in lung cancer– 8% increase in fatal heart attacks
Pre-Mature DeathsPre-Mature Deaths
020406080
100120140160180200
Bucks
Cheste
r
Delaw
are
Montg
omer
y
Philadel
phia
Pope A.C., et al. 2002. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long‑term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA, vol. 287, no. 9, 1132-1141.
Asthma AttacksAsthma Attacks
Bucks 330
Chester 190
Delaware 510
Montgomery 410Philadelphia 2300
Vedal, S. et al. 1998. Acute effects of ambient inhalable particles in asthmatic and non-asthmatic children. Am. J of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 157(4):1034-1043. Ostro, B. et al. 2001. Air pollution and exacerbation of asthma in African-American children in Los Angeles. Epidemiology. 12(2):200-208.
Non-Fatal Heart AttacksNon-Fatal Heart Attacks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 >85
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity revisited: A speciation test. J of Environ Economics Management. 14:87-98.
Work Loss DaysWork Loss Days
Bucks 2,800
Chester 1,600
Delaware 4,000
Montgomery 3,700Philadelphia 20,000
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity revisited: A speciation test. J of Environ Economics Management. 14:87-98.
Work Loss DaysWork Loss Days
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
Montgomery
Philadelphia
On-Road Non-Road
Ostro, B.D. 1987. Air pollution and morbidity revisited: A speciation test. J of Environ Economics Management. 14:87-98.
Particulate MatterParticulate MatterWorth Its’ Weight in GoldWorth Its’ Weight in Gold
260 Premature deaths
450 Non-fatal heart attacks
32,000 Missed days of work
3,700 Asthma attacks
Valued at $1.4 billion
Cost $37 million
$4.4 million in lost wages
Valued at $160,000
Particulate MatterParticulate MatterWorth Its’ Weight in GoldWorth Its’ Weight in Gold
Willingness to payCost of illnessLost wages
Willingness to PayWillingness to PayStandard regulatory approachValue of small reduction in riskBased on peer-reviewed studies:
– Interviews– Market forces – Peoples willingness to accept
risk for higher wages
Willingness to PayWillingness to Pay
Mortality
Asthma
Acute bronchitis
$5.5 Million
$42 to prevent “Bad asthma day”
$360 to prevent 6 day episode
Cost of IllnessCost of IllnessMedical costs, lost wagesMedical costs, lost wages
Non-fatal Heart Attacks
Hospital Admissions
Asthma ER visits
Age dependent $66k to $140K
Depends on illness $12,378 to $18,387
$286
Lost WagesLost Wages
Data from 2000 CensusMedian Income by County
– Bucks $39,286– Chester $43,039– Delaware $37,993– Montgomery $41,894– Philadelphia $31,338
How good are the results?How good are the results?
Uncertainties– Modeling– Epidemiology– Valuation
To know that even one life has breathed easier because you lived – this is to have succeeded.
Ralph Waldo Emerson