urbanization in asia
TRANSCRIPT
Urbanization in AsiaJorge Carrillo-Rodriguez3rd March 2015
Urbanization implies…•physical and/or demographic expansion of
urban areas: increase in the number of cities, urban population, or the size of urban areas
•increased complexity of national systems of cities, increased differentiation between cities in terms of their economies, demographic composition, social dynamics and political role.
• increasing dominance of urban views regardless of geographical location
Drivers of urbanization•Natural growth•Internal migration•International migration•Reclassification
•Climate change/disaster•Conflict
Pace of urbanization
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
WorldAfricaAsiaLatin AmericaEuropeNorth America
Rate of Change of the Percentage Urban
Scale of Asian urbanization Urban Rural Total % Urban
World 3,880,128 3,363,656 7,243,784 53.6
Asia2,064,21
1 2,278,044 4,092,157 47.5
Africa 455 345 682 885 1 138 229 40.0
Europe 545 382 197 431 742 813 73.4
Latin America 495 857 127 565 623 422 79.5
North America 291 860 66 376 358 236 81.5
Where the urban is…Agglomeration Country 1990 2014 2030
projection
Tokyo Japan 32,530 37,833 37,190
Delhi India 9,726 24,953 36,060
Shanghai China 7,823 22,991 30,751
Mumbai India 12,436 20,741 27,797
Kinki (Osaka) Japan 18,389 20,123 19,976
Beijing China 6,788 19,520 27,706
Dhaka Bangladesh 6,621 16,982 27,374
Karachi Pakistan 7,147 16,126 24,838
Kolkata India 10,890 14,766 19,092
Chongqing China 4,011 12,916 17,380
Manila Philippines 7,973 12,764 16,756
Guangzhou, Guangdong China 3,072 11,843
17,574
Tianjin China 4,558 10,860 14,655
Shenzhen China 875 10,680 12,673
Jakarta Indonesia 8,175 10,176 13,812
Seoul Rep. of Korea 10,518 9,775 9,960
Bangalore India 4,036 9,718 14,762
Chennai India 5,338 9,620 13,921Bangkok Thailand 5,888 9,098 11,528
Hyderabad India 4,193 8,670 12,774
Lahore Pakistan 3,970 8,500 13,033
Where the urban really is…
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
>105-101-50.5 - 10.5>
Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement
Asia - no single storyline
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
ASIAEast AsiaCentral AsiaSouth AsiaSouth-East Asia
Shrinking cities
2000 - 2014
Khulna Bangladesh -212Fushun, Liaoning China -53Keelung China -10Liaoyuan China -7Yichun, Heilongjiang China -161Hamhung North Korea -85Palembang Indonesia -5Yogyakarta Indonesia -12Asahikawa Japan -15Nagasaki Japan -34Sendai Japan -71Taraz Kazakhstan -16Busan Republic of Korea -358Changwon Republic of Korea -35Daegu Republic of Korea -73Seoul Republic of Korea -103
Engines of economic growthShare of cities in GDP (2007)
Sub-region GDP share (%) Population share (%)
China region 74 43South Asia 31 18Southeast Asia 48 21Northeast Asia 71 65Australasia 68 65
Estimated GDP for the largest urban economies in the region(US$ billion; 2010)
Tokyo 1,874.7 Hong Kong 224.5Moscow 325.8 Singapore 222.7Sydney 268.9 Melbourne 221.4Shanghai 250.7 Beijing 206.2Seoul 233.3 Istanbul 188.2
Decreasing urban povertyCountry Year % of urban
population Year % of urban population
Bangladesh 1992 42.7 2010 21.3
India 1994 31.8 2010 20.9
Indonesia 1996 13.6 2012 8.8
Pakistan 1999 20.9 2006 13.1
Thailand 1990 20.5 2011 9
Viet Nam 1993 25.1 2010 6
Emerging middle classCountry
Percentage point
change in population
share
Change in population (million)
Armenia 76.5 2.3Azerbaijan 35.1 3.1Bangladesh 8.3 18.5Cambodia 24 4China 61.4 844.6India 12.8 205Indonesia 46.3 113.7Kazakhstan -6.7 -2.2Kyrgyz Republic -14.9 -0.1Lao PDR 28.9 1.9Malaysia 5.6 6.5Mongolia 24.4 1Nepal -5.8 -0.6Pakistan 36.5 65.9Philippines 12 23.6Sri Lanka -10.1 -0.9Tajikistan -3.9 0.3Thailand 17.6 17.2Turkmenistan 15.2 0.9Viet Nam 57.4 49.3
Living in slums1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
China 43.6 40.5 37.3 32.9 31.0Mongolia 68.5 66.0 0.7 64.9 57.9Bangladesh 87.3 84.7 77.8 70.8 70.8India 54.9 48.2 41.5 34.8 32.1Nepal 70.6 67.3 64.0 60.7 59.4Pakistan 51.0 49.8 48.7 47.5 47.0Cambodia 78.9Indonesia 50.8 42.6 34.4 26.3 23.0Laos 79.3Myanmar 45.6Philippines 54.3 50.8 47.2 43.7 42.3Thailand 26.0Viet Nam 60.5 54.6 48.8 41.3 38.3% Urban living in slums
Inadequate housing 1990 2005 2009
%million
s %million
s %million
s
Bangladesh 87.3 20.0 70.8 27.8 61.6 27.5
China 43.6 131.7 32.9 183.5 29.1 180.6
India 54.9 121.0 34.8 112.9 29.4 104.7
Indonesia 50.8 27.6 26.3 24.8 23.0 23.3
Nepal 70.6 1.2 60.7 2.6 58.1 3.1
Pakistan 51.0 18.1 47.5 27.2 46.6 30.0
Philippines 54.3 16.5 43.7 18.0 40.9 18.3
Vietnam 60.5 8.1 41.3 9.5 35.2 9.2
Urban InequalityCity Year Gini
Coefficient City Year GiniCoefficient
Chiang Mai 2006 0.58 Colombo 2002 0.46
Hong Kong 2001 0.53 Davao City 2003 0.44
Ho Chi Minh City 2002 0.53 Nonthaburi 2006 0.43
Bangkok 2006 0.48 Kuala Lumpur 1999 0.41
Moscow 2001 0.47 Manila 2006 0.4
No more business as usual…• Cities have outgrown model, i.e. self-contain industries• Climate change type of issues required looking beyond
the "economic", holistic development• Local economic development: centre for peri-urban
areas, smaller cities, neighbouring cities• Dependency on economies of larger cities, driver
regional and/or global development• Cooperation & competition• “Engines” not only large capital/manufacturing centres• From poverty to inequality
The New Urban• Urbanization is a dynamic process – the
composition of urban populations constantly changes, economic opportunities come and go, and new lifestyles and choices continually emerge.
• The analysis, design and implementation of urban programmes and interventions must respond to this new context. Many views and perspectives that dominated urban studies for many years do not apply to the rapidly changing cities of today.
Young cities, old countries•Asia: simultaneous urbanization and ageing•Location of health centres and medical
services tend to favour urban areas•Migrants usually the young•Traditional views of an older person as a
burden•Potential for different social roles•Physical design of cities not ready for older
persons
What women want…Cities offer:• employment and financial independence, • access to better health care, education• creative expression and potential transformation of
traditional gender rolesHowever, • Lack of safety in public spaces and neglect of gender
violence• Failure to understand how women and men experience cities
differently• Most women who migrate to the city end up in a low-paying
job or informal sector work with little income, hazardous working conditions
Informal is normal•Makes the city function: transport,
recycling, waste management, food•Provides livelihood & shelter for
migrants and the poor•Safety net in crisis or jobless growth•Line formal/informal blurred, people &
services move across sector•Formalization/eradication is failing•Need to informalize the formal
Urban diversity•Cultural demographics of cities are
constantly being reshaped▫Internal mobility: communications and
transport▫International migration: trade needs, ease of
transportation & economic demand for labour•Urban diversity driven by macroeconomic
values rather than cultural values•Tension between ethnic & cultural diversity
as an asset, and nationalistic agendas
The rise of secondary cities
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
>105-101-50.5 - 10.5>
Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement
The rise of secondary cities• Increasingly complex systems of cities• Types of secondary cities
▫ subnational administrative centres of government or of a particular resource or function;
▫ clustered secondary cities that grow like mushrooms on the periphery of large urban centres;
▫ economic corridor secondary cities emerging along major transport routes between large cities within countries and across countries.
• Multiple functions▫ Implement national policies and plans▫ Act as centre for the development of their region▫ Compete at the regional or global level
The list continues…•Resilient people: the challenge of climate
change•The need for innovation/technology•The disappearance of the rural-urban
divide•Urban citizens =Digital citizens•Smart cities, creative cities, green cities…•etc.