urbanization challenges in pakistan

8/8/2019 Urbanization Challenges in Pakistan

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URBANIZATION CHALLENGES INURBANIZATION CHALLENGES IN

PAKISTANPAKISTAN

National University of Sciences & TechnologyNational University of Sciences & Technology

DecemberDecember 24,24, 20092009

Ted Rogers School of ManagementTed Rogers School of Management

Ryerson University, TorontoRyerson University, Toronto

Murtaza HaiderMurtaza [email protected]

Tel: 416.979.5000 x 2480


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Murtaza Haider, 2009

OutlineOutline

What are the urbanization challen es in Pakistan?

Are these problems only urban?

a or c a enges w oca governance

A history of a tug-of-war between non-representative

centre an t e po itica esta is ments What needs to be done?

Your Questions


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Urbanization challenges in PakistanUrbanization challenges in Pakistan

Rapid urbanization Over the next two decades, the urban population in Pakistan

is likely to increase by 140%.

urban population in Pakistan, bringing the total urbanpopulation to a 130 million people.

e year w a so e a ma or an mar nPakistans development as a nation.

Pakistan will constitute 50% of the total population.

From nearly 50 million urbanites today, Pakistan will behome to a massive urban population o 1 millionliving in very high-density cities, which would be


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Urbanization and Population GrowthUrbanization and Population Growth

Rural population (million) Urban population (million) Percentage urban (%)

140

160

50

60

Pakistan

Projected

100

120

(million) 40

nt

60

80

Population

20

30

Perc

20

40

10

0

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Years

0


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We do have a choice, demographic dividendWe do have a choice, demographic dividend

Not all is lost

The urbanization in Pakistan is likely to pose new

challenges in governance and urban service delivery. The current appalling state of most urban centres may

worsen with time.

hile urbanization poses new challenges, it will alsocreate new opportunities for growth and prosperity.

na ura y-pro uc o ur an za on w e e emergenceof a middle class of over a 100 million individuals, who willnot only create a domestic market for goods and services,but at the same time can create a skilled workforce that canbecome the engine of growth and source of innovation.


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The state of urban affairsThe state of urban affairs

It is no longer possible to overlook the urban decay inPakistan.

Streets are littered with waste Drains are overflowing with sewage

Low-lying communities are inundated after rainfall

Tra ic congestion is ubiquitous Violent crime in urban centres is on the rise.

e a e e er as ves e rom, or s no onger a e ooffer, reliable mass transit, good quality and affordableprimary education, and healthcare.

In brief, the urban rot in Pakistan is screaming at us,pleading for intervention.


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SocioSocio--demographics and housing characteristicsdemographics and housing characteristics

HousingStructure(%)

Area

v g

Annual

G.R.

u

Density(pers/

sqkm)

Urban

%

Avg.hhld.

Size

Literacy

Rate Adequate

Semi

adequate Informal

PAKISTAN 2.69 166 32.5 6.8 43.9 56 11 33

NWFP 2.81 238 16.9 8.0 35.4 56 6 38

FATA 2.19 117 2.7 9.3 17.4

PUNJAB 2.64 359 31.3 6.9 46.6 65 8 27

SINDH 2.80 216 48.8 6.0 45.3 47 19 34

BALOCHISTAN 2.47 19 23.9 6.7 24.8 14 14 72ISLAMABAD 5.19 889 65.7 6.2 72.4 88 6 6

,


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Access to waterAccess to water

Well Others* TotalPipedWater HandPump

Pakistan

1973 8.4 8.2 28.8 13.4 26.1 15.1 100

1980 12.6 7.7 34.3 12.3 17.3 15.8 100. . . . .

Urban

1973 28.4 26.5 26 7 8.8 3.3 100

1980 38.3 20 27.3 5.6 7.1 1.7 100

1998 60.2 4.8 25.7 1.3 4.4 3.5 100

Rural

1973 1.3 1.6 29.8 15.7 32.3 19.3 100

1980 2.5 2.9 37 14.9 21.3 21.4 100

State of Population 1988 p-187 and Population Census 1998 Table - 48

1998 13.4 3.9 49.6 6.9 12.5 13.9 100


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Access to sanitationAccess to sanitation

BathRoom LatrineArea

eparate

(%)

are

(%)

one

(%)

eparate

(%)

are

(%)

one

(%)

PAKISTAN 33 23 44 29 20 51

FATA

PUNJAB 32 18 50 27 16 58

SINDH 34 31 35 35 31 34

BALOCHISTAN 27 42 32 19 29 52

ISLAMABAD 59 17 24 55 17 28

Census, 1998


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Infrastructure deficitInfrastructure deficit

Less than 1% of wastewater is treated in Pakistan (Shah,. e res s umpe n o rav nes, s reams, an r vers.

The result has been drastic. Brooks, streams, ravines and rivers

have turned into sewers. The metropolitan governments recover fewer than 50% of

the solid waste generated in the cities. The rest is left to rot.

Even the waste that is collected is mostly dumped in openfields or is incinerated. The dumped waste pollutes thegroundwater and the incinerated waste creates air pollution.

Lahore has fewer than 100 traffic lights, which are. The result is severe traffic congestion.

In the federal capital, Islamabad, even the well-off

communities face chronic water shortages.

M H id 2009


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Urban poverty and unemploymentUrban poverty and unemployment

The poor economic growth, specifically the low rate ofemployment growth for the youth, lack of entrepreneurship,and the collapse of civilian institutions are some of the more

.

Consider that the largest and the fastest growing cohort inPakistan is between the a es of 15 and 25 ears of a e.

Employment opportunities are getting increasingly rare.

A lar e number of unem lo ed outh could readil bedrafted by the mafia or other degenerated groups.

Media reports suggested that the first week of January 2006w tnesse mur ers n arac an seven n a ore.

The case with the Swat Taliban

M t H id 2009


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Incoherent visions for urban PakistanIncoherent visions for urban Pakistan

Imaan mu he kheencha he to

Urban geographies, rural dispositions

Should women run in marathons or not?

Saudi Arabia: Should women drive, vote, travel alone,etc.

Iran: Should women be flogged if their hair are visible?

Malaysia: Where the religion, economy, urbanizationcan co-exist

Murtaza Haider 2009


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Challenges with local governanceChallenges with local governance

Governing hierarchies

Federal

Provincial Local/municipal

The uest to assume and retain all owers

Devolution and decentralization of powers and

Challenge:

- - -centre and the political establishments


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Murtaza Haider 2009


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Milestones in local governanceMilestones in local governance

PanchayatFirstmunicipal Enactment

Bhutto

promulga-

M usha rra f

enactsDemocraticprovincial

esta b lishedpanchayat iinstitu tions inrural area s

corp ora tionesta b lishedin M ad ras

Corpora-t ion Ac t

Ordinance,but notimplemented

. -partyb a sedelectionsheld

governm-en ts refuse tow ork w ithlocalgovernments

20101688 1867 1912 1933 1941 1959 1972 1979 2001 2005 2009

PunjabMunicipalA c t

Ayub'sBDO a c tenacted.A b olishedin 1972.MA O in

Secondnon-partyelectionsunder

M usha rra f

City ofKarachiA c tp a ssed

Zia ena c tsLG O

a r y-b a sedlocalelecti-onsexpec-te d

* LGO= Loca l Gov ernm ent Ord inanc e, BDO = Ba sic Dem ocrac ies Ord inanc e, MAO = Municipa l Adm inistrat ion Ordina nce

1960.



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The consequenceThe consequence

The establishment of local overnments under one

regime and their abolition under the other

revented a stron and sustained local overnmenttradition from taking root in Pakistan.



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,

The Musharraf planThe Musharraf plan

While Gen. Musharraf took the same a roach of

banning politicians and creating a new cadre of

olitical arasites who thrive under militardictatorships and act as a conduit between the non-

Gen. Musharraf approached the decentralization

devolution plan of 2000 was far more

decentralization.



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Devolution Plan under Gen. MusharrafDevolution Plan under Gen. Musharraf



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Structural composition of a Union Council (old)Structural composition of a Union Council (old)

MuslimmembersGeneralseats

(8+2)(8)

Mayorandde ut ma oron

UnionCouncil21members

jointticketMuslimwomen

Reservedseats(11)

Peasantsandworkers(6)

Generalseats(4)

Womenseats(2)Minorities(1)



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Structural composition of a Union Council (new)Structural composition of a Union Council (new)

Generalseats(4+2)

(4)

UnionCouncil

deputymayoron

jointticket21members Mus imwomen

(2)

Generalseats(2)Reservedseats

(7)

Peasantsandworkers(4)

Womenseats(2)Minorities(1)



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Local government hierarchyLocal government hierarchy

Ma or&De utMayor

Council

the20UCrdThe420Union

UnionCouncils(Mayorand

DeputyMayor)

seats

CouncilorsconstitutetheelectoralcollegeforTown/Tehsil Councilsandapp.1260Councilors

Mayorforthe(City)DistrictCouncils.

Council

UC

seats



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The challengeThe challenge

The challenge for armed forces is obvious. The ad hoc local government policymaking, even under the most

comprehensive devolution plan instituted by Gen. Musharraf,

revealed serious flaws in fiscal decentralization andtransparency.

A review of financial decentralization suggests that the municipalgovernments were left at the mercy of higher tier governments,which prevented them rom delivering improved services to theirconstituents.

CCBs improve enfranchise the masses, political constraintsdisenfrenchise

The challenge for the democratic forces in Pakistan is toto take steps to offer constitutional cover to localgovernments.

on row e a y w e a wa er



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The updateThe update

ICG claims massive ri in in the 2005 LG elections

Voter turnout was poor

PROVINCE Turnout(%) Male Female TotalPUNJAB 61.5 44.0 53.5SINDH 47.6 24.3 37.6NWFP 57.4 21.1 41.2BALOCHISTAN 39.3 21.5 31.1

Corruption rampant in LG

Total 56.8 35.9 47.4 Elected governments repealing LGOs

Party-based elections expected in 2010.



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What needs to be done?What needs to be done?

The Urban Challenge

The challenge for urban Pakistan is how to create:

Healthy Prosperous

Socially just, and

Environmentally sustainable urban communities, which wouldcontribute to the growth and prosperity of the entire nation.

should recognise that the cities would be the

innovation.



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SectoralSectoral targetstargets

Local economic development policies

Housing & land policy

Basic health policy

ommun y- ase n ras ruc ure eve opmen

Orangi, Changa Pani, Duddhi wala

nsung eroes: a eez ra n, anzoor attoo

A strong dose of realismMeglev vs BRT

Water for all means water for none



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Development StrategiesDevelopment Strategies

Role of commercial banks

Self-sustaining development

Dont rely on AID Re-engineer municipal finance

Less than 7% of the taxes are collected by sub-national

governments Institutional capacity building

Public community partnerships

Revamping curricula for urban planners and civilengineers

Information & knowledge banks



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Again, we do have a choiceAgain, we do have a choice

With the demo ra hic dividend we can:

Bring prosperity and development

urbanization challenges in pakistan

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