Urbanisation, Water and Climate Change:A case of Jaipur city

M.S. Rathore (CEDSJ)

and ISET Team

Shashikant Chopde, Sarah-Opitz Stapleton, Marcus Moench

Context… India rapidly urbanising Urban areas engine of economic

development Pressures: Push and pull migration

from rural areas Climate Change—exacerbate

challenge of water supply and protecting ecosystems

Context Challenge: Meeting water supply

demand of increasing urban population Relation between Climate Change and

water resource conditions Nature and size of migrant population Deliver water supply to poor/ vulnerable

where there is lack of infrastructure

Jaipur City

High rural-urban migration rates Rapidly expanding peri-urban areas: Land use changes

reducing recharge Limited water supply and water quality issues Groundwater over-extraction, pollution and less

recharge The key surface water sources (Bisalpur Dam) filled only

few times High rainfall variability in Banas Basin; drought years

common So, CC impacts—delay in monsoon, high intense

showers over short period, dry years poses additional challenge to key surface water supplies

Factors of Human Migration

Changing Status of groundwater in Rajasthan

Category 1984 1988 2001 2004 2008

Over Exploited(>100%)

22(9.3)

41(17.0)

86(36.0)

140(59.3)

164(69.5)

Critical(90 to 100%)

6(2.5)

26(11.0)

80(34.0)

50(21.2)

34(14.4)

Semi critical(70 to 90%)

27(11.5)

34(14.0)

21(9.0)

14(5.9)

8(3.4)

Safe(70%)

181(76.7)

135(57.0)

49(21.0)

32(13.6)

30(12.7)

Banas River Basin

Type of Scheme

Number of Projects

Free Catchment Area, Km2

Live StorageMm3

Major 7 6,133 425

Medium 33 11,337 816

Minor 1219 16,496 1,055

Total 1259 33,965 2,296

Total Free Catchment Area and Live Storage Capacity of Existing Irrigation Dams in Banas River Basin, Rajasthan

Districts of Intensity and frequency of Drought Per cent of Total Year

Normal years

Very Severe Severe Moderate Light

Pali 8 12 19 15 50.9 52

Jaipur 11 12 17 10 47.2 56

8 16 14 14 49.1 54

Tonk 9 11 11 18 46.2 57

Swai Madhopur 8 8 15 23 50.9 52

Bhilwara 3 9 10 15 37.0 63

Chittorgarh 10 12 12 13 44.3 59

10 14 14 9 44.3 59

Bundi 7 16 15 13 48.1 55

Average of Basin 8 12 14 15 46.4 57

Overall Rajasthan

10 10 15 15 47.2 56

Frequency of occurrence of drought and its intensity since 1901-2006 in the Banas River Basin

Year wise Water Balance in Bisalpur Dam.(in TMC)

Years Total collection of water(TMC)

Water Used(TMC)

Total Use Irrigation Drinking Evaporation Losses

1994-95 0.100 0.100 - 0.002 0.0981995-96 0.790 0.790 - 0.500 0.2901996-97 1.630 1.140 - 0.640 0.5001997-98 1.850 1.490 - 1.200 0.2901998-99 1.410 1.410 - 1.260 0.1501999-2000 3.630 2.570 0.420 1.300 0.8502000-2001 8.120 4.960 0.300 1.650 3.0102001-2002 14.000 8.800 1.250 3.590 3.9602002-2003 5.800 4.270 - 1.860 2.4102003-2004 7.770 5.290 - 2.715 2.5752004-2005 38.700 17.090 5.980 1.810 9.3002005-2006 28.390 17.690 7.380 2.620 7.6902006-2007 38.700 21.750 9.852 2.570 9.3262007-2008 22.252 14.768 8.218 1.630 4.920

The Project CEDSJ and ISET: Urbanisation, Water Scarcity and

Climate Change: A case of Jaipur city Links between Climate Variability, Groundwater

Overdraft and migration inflows

Methodology Review of literature and policies Details surveys of migration Climate Downscaling for Banas River Basin: projected

monthly time series of precipitation (2009-2040) Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model: Current

and future water availability and demand scenarios

Climate Downscaling Two GCMs (CGCM3 and ECHAM5) Two emission scenarios (A1B and A2) Hence four climate change scenarios

are considered namely CGCM3 A1B, CGCM3 A2, ECHAM5 A1B, and ECHAM5 A2

Common SRES emission scenarios (Source: Environment Canada 2011).

WEAP setup for Jaipur water supply system

Variance in Bisalpur storage (MCM)

Huge unmet demand even without Climate Change

Jaipur Combined: Domestic, Industrial uses

Key Findings.. Sequential drought years Failure of current water supply system for

urban demand Ability to respond dependant on availability

of key data sets Official estimates of river flows differ

greatly between two data sets Challenge to assess future water availability

given uncertainty in CC projections

Key Findings.. Reliable future streamflow record

generation a challenge given the data available

Hence, factors contributing to vulnerability of Jaipur were assessed. High dependence on single water supply source High Losses in distribution systems Extensive pollution and degradation of

ecosystems and groundwater

Options for resilient water supply system for Jaipur Water supply diversification Improved efficiency of water supply

delivery Improved maintenance of ecosystems

and local watersheds Recharge of aquifers in peri-urban

areas and Groundwater management Policy: Strict enforcement of Landuse

and revision of Masterplan

Thank You !

msr@cedsj.orgschopde@i-s-e-t.org