urban transport and climate change: new concerns for cities
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THE 21ST CENTURY INDIAN CITY Developing an Agenda for Urbanization in India. INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI. Urban transport and climate change: New concerns for cities. Dinesh Mohan. Urban transport – changing concerns. 1990s- Pollution - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Urban transport and climate change: New
concerns for cities
Dinesh Mohan
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
THE 21ST CENTURY INDIAN CITYDeveloping an Agenda for
Urbanization in India
Urban transport – changing concerns
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
1990s- Pollution
2000s- Road Safety (concern but unscientific)
Late 2000s- Lip service to climate change
India poor
India middle class
India rich
Rich and middle class must reduce energy consumption
Poor have to increase energy consumption
2050
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
City density – traditional understanding
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Car use and density redone
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Source: MEES, P. (2010) Density and sustainable transport in US, Canadian and Australian cities: another look at the data, World Council Transportation Research, Lisbon, Proceedings 12th WCTR.
Density, cities > 10 million
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Europe/USA
Asia/Africa
Density, cities ~ 5 million
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Europe/USA
Asia/Africa
IIT Delhi 21 Apr 2023
Mature European Cities(19th and mid 20th century)
Post colonial Indian City(Late 20th – 21st Century)
Central business district critical
Multiple business districts, cities within cities
Public transport (mainly rail) before cars
Motorcycles, inexpensive comfortable cars challenge
role of public transport
Manual labour in factories Service and informal sector
Car movement & speed concerns dominate
Safety, climate change & pollution
Management by mechanical systems
Internet & ITS
IIT Delhi 21 Apr 2023
The Indian City: 18th -21st Century
Indian high density city – pre 1850
Colonial city –
1850-1950
Present city
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April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Vehicle ownership in countries with per capita incomes US$ 1,500-8,000
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
India 2030
Cars/100 MTW/100France 50 10Japan 45 10Singapore 12 3UK 47 2USA 69 2
Regional car segment share in 2015
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
India
USA
Europe
Largest, SUV
Smallest
Pre-conditions for clean air
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Shorter trips Mixed land use Negative feedback for long trips – • Fares based on distance• Transport speeds around 15-20 km/h
Use of less polluting modeswalking, cycling >> safety essential
Use of public transport Close to home and work – dense network Minimum infrastructure
Lowest emissions for vehicles
14
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
DELHI
IIT Delhi 2008
D
Metro
Bus Rapid Transit
CO2 emission estimates for Taipei
Source: Prof Jason Chang
Life cycle emissions – rail modes
Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.
Life cycle emissions – road modes
Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.
IIT Delhi 21 Apr 2023
Calculations based on:Passengers carried per day (metro system and per bus)Energy consumed (Total electricity bill for Metro and diesel consumed per busCO2 emitted per MVAH at the powerhouse, well-to-wheel CO2 for dieselFly ash emitted by metro system not included
Estimates CO2 emissions per passenger in Delhi
Delhi Metro Ridership
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
IIT Delhi 2011
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Walking to station/veh Walking in station - in Waiting at station
Journey in vehicle Walking in station - out Walking to destination
Congestion (car) One change
CAR CAR
CARCAR
BICYCLE BICYCLEWALK
3 KM 6 KM
12 KM 24 KM
DOOR TO DOOR TRIP TIMES
ELEVATED/UNDERGRND
PT
ELEVATEDUNDERGRND
PT
ELEVATEDUNDERGRND/
PT
SURFACEPT
SURFACEPT
SURFACEPT
SURFACEPT
ELEVATEDUNDERGRND
PT
IIT Delhi 21 Apr 2023
ISSUES Even cities in high income countries have
not been able to solve the problems that all of us have to deal with in the near future
NO INDIAN CITY HAS CAR USE MORE THAN 15%
IIT Delhi 21 Apr 2023
Expenditure in Rs - 6 km round trip per day for 1 month
Marginal cost
20-30% families earn less than Rs. 5,000 per month70% families earn less than Rs 35,000 per month
Minimum family income in Rs per month:Bus use – 6,000 Metro - 9,000Motorcycle - 30,000 Car - 60,000
Surface transport less energy consumimng Underground or elevated transit does not reduce
congestion, provides extra supply > CO2 CO2 ≈ road area + distance of travel
CO2 and roads20th CENTURY SOLUTIONS:
One way streets?Road widening & expansion?Flyovers, elevated/underground corridors?Metro/LRT/Monorail/Skybus - providing corridor capacity to serve link demandUnderground trains seen as a major solution during cold war as nuclear shelters
IIT Delhi 2011
Solutions contractor drivenNot people driven
“One-way streets reflect the dominance of the car and the failed go-faster policies of the traffic engineers. As we begin to realise that walking and cycling should be the dominant forms of transport, the one-way street should be consigned to the dustbin of history.”
Peter Murray, Head of the New London Architecture Centre,
A typical brick shelter found on a Valley Lines railway station in South Wales U.K. (left) and a redesigned transparent shelter (right) (Source: Cozens, 2004)
IIT Delhi 2009
33 per cent increase in
annual passenger flows
Latest evidence
IIT Delhi 2011
Possibilities to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic for urban planners seem limited: a restriction of space dedicated to traffic and a change of transport means for commuting represent leverage points.Reckien,D., Ewald,M., Edenhofer,O., & Ludeke,M.K.B. (2007). What Parameters Influence the Spatial Variations in CO2 Emissions from Road Traffic in Berlin? Implications for Urban Planning to Reduce Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions. Urban Studies, 44(2), 339-355.
The results suggest that public transport users could achieve dramatic savings on their commute if the density of that network was increased considerablyMurphy,E. (2009). Excess commuting and modal choice. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 43(8), 735-743.
Current urban policy, which relies predominantly on ambitious and expensive programmes of transport infrastructure provision must be rethought in BeijingZHAO, P., LU, B. & LINDEN, G. J. J. (2009) The effects of transport accessibility and jobs and housing balance on commuting time: evidence from beijing. International planning studies, 14, (1) 65-83.
High speed systems will further encourage sprawl and greater energy consumption, and hence, Public Transit (PT), even if the commercial speed is rather low, is probably the only way to improve urban accessibility and urban attractiveness in a sustainable wayCROZET, Y. Economic development and the role of travel time: the key concept of accessibility, Gothenberg: Volvo Research & Educational Foundations, pp. 1-22.
Indian cities Modal shares
30-50% Pedestrians
10-20% Bicycles
~ 30% formal/informal “public” transport
10-20% Motorcycles
5-10% cars (Delhi ~ 15%)
Cannot afford very expensive transit systems:
Subsidy in Delhi – Rs 35,000/passenger per year
Motorcycles: Rs 1 per km marginal cost – keeps public transport fares low, need minimum infrastructure cost to minimise subsidy
~ 80% employment in informal sector
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi
Safe roads a precondition for the future low CO2 city
Children, elderly, walking speed ~ 0.8 m/s
Pedestrian green phase < 30 s
Therefore, motorised lanes < (30 X 0.8) = < 24 m
Shops and/or street vendors by design
City blocks ~ 800 m square
Maintain urban average speeds at 15 km/h
Public transit on surface
April 21, 2023IIT Delhi