Urban Bus Sector in India

Implementing Efficient & Sustainable City Bus Systems

Nupur Gupta, Sr. Transport Specialist The World Bank

Urban Mobility India 2016 Ahmedabad

Presentation Structure

• India’s Urbanization

• Trends in Urban Public Transport

– Performance of STU’s

– Performance of new SPV’s

• Key Takeaways

India’s Urbanization

India is rapidly urbanising …

26% 46%

28% 54%

30% 58%

40% 69%

Urbanisation GDP Share

Source: McKinsey

Population Growth by City Size

42.4

22.2

43.3

66.0

23.7

70.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

8 mn + 4-8 mn 1-4 mn

2001 2011

Indian cities with a population of one million and above grew by 150 percent between 2001 and 2011. The growth was the fastest in the 1-4 mn

category

5 cities 4 cities 44 cities

Trends in Urban Bus Sector

Decline in PT Share in Indian cities … 1994 to 2007

Source: Study on Traffic & Transportation , MoUD, 2007

9 13

10

21

44

26

32

41

53

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5-10l 10-20l 20-40l 40-80l Above 80

2007 1994

Absence of attractive public transport alternatives translating into a growing dependence on personal modes and unsustainable investments in costly road

infrastructure – growing congestion, road safety hazards, environmental degradation

Business as Usual Scenario – Projected Decline in PT Share

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 2011 2021 2031

<0.5 million 0.5-1 Million 1-2 Million 2-4 Million 4-8 Million >8 Million

20% drop predicted

Source: Study on Traffic & Transportation , MoUD, 2007

National Policies & Programs

• Only 20 cities had organized PT; serviced by STU’s which were generally loss making, dwindling fleet sizes owing to lack of investments

• Unregulated minibuses/IPT proliferated • NUTP 2006 launched followed by National Urban

Renewal Mission - BRT systems in 12 cities • Bus Funding Scheme launched in 2009 – 10,000

buses sanctioned to 61 cities, plus a follow up phase

• Metro system funding

City bus systems can be a cost effective PT solution for most Indian cities

Fleet Strength of STUs in Major Cities improved …

Source: CIRT – Profile and Performance of STUs

2825

4735

3450

2870

1185

545 690

5340

6600

4315

3660

1840

1035

720

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

DTC BMTC BEST MTC PMPML AMTS CSTC

2007-08

2013-14

Received an impetus as a result of the bus funding scheme; many cities with no formal systems were able build bus fleets

Ridership also improved …

Source: CIRT – Profile and Performance of STUs

43.1

39.2

21.1

41.4

8.2 8.6

4.9

36.3

49.8

44.1

50.2

11.8

7.1

2.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

BEST BMTC DTC MTC PMPML AMTS CSTC

2007-08

2013-14

And ridership by and large improved, except in Kolkata and Ahmedabad where there are efficiency issues and in Mumbai where enhancements in

rail systems has resulted in a decline

Average Daily Ridership in Lakhs

All urban STU operations were loss making …

70%

118%

25%

89%

56%

77%

66%

94%

26%

91%

43%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

BEST BMTC DTC MTC AMTS CSTC

Revenue to Cost Ratio 2007-08 2013-14

While several new cities launched an organized bus service …

STU SPV

9.8

2.8

6.6

1.5

1.8

9.2

0

8.5

16.7

10.3

5.7

17.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Jaipur

Kanpur

Nagpur

Ludhiana

Patna

Bhopal

Jamshedpur

Raipur

Guwahati

BBR

MBMC

Dehradun

Still large gaps in the PT supply for the new cities, mostly Tier 2 cities. This does not factor in large unregulated presence in several cases

35.6

71.4

25.4

39.6

25.8

10.0

6.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

DTC

BMTC

BEST

MTC

PMPML

AMTS

CSTC

Bus PT Supply Index

Fleet utilization suboptimal in several instances …

STU SPV

80.6

31.5

51.3

44.2

89.4

0

95

69.7

74.4

76.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jaipur

Kanpur

Nagpur

Ludhiana

Bhopal

Jamshedpur

Raipur

Guwahati

BBR

Dehradun

87%

87%

85.50%

87.30%

70.30%

70.30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

BEST

BMTC

DTC

MTC

PMPML

AMTS

While some cities such as Bhopal and Raipur have done a reasonably good job with ensuring buses on the road, others such as Patna, Jamshedpur,

Kanpur, Ludhiana, Nagpur etc. have most buses grounded

Suboptimal utilization … Bus Productivity

STU SPV

162

199

162

270

163

143

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

BEST

BMTC

DTC

MTC

PMPML

AMTS

211

203

185

84

179

0

210

98

199

217

245

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Jaipur

Kanpur

Nagpur

Patna

Bhopal

Jamshedpur

Raipur

Guwahati

BBR

MBMC

Dehradun

In some instances, Gangtok, Guwahati, Patna, buses plying less than 100 km a day when could easily cover 150-200 per day

Relatively low ridership in newly launched services …

STU SPV

830

744

814

1353

632

535

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

BEST

BMTC

DTC

MTC

PMPML

AMTS

454

248

589

0

265

540

0

632

173

409

900

144

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Jaipur

Kanpur

Nagpur

Ludhiana

Patna

Bhopal

Jamshedpur

Raipur

Guwahati

BBR

MBMC

Dehradun

Number of passengers per bus per day are quiet low in the new cities, ranging between 150-500 compared to over 700-1000 in the better managed systems,

owing to issues of poor service planning, reliability and most of all a competing unregulated sector

Passengers per Bus per Day

User Satisfaction Levels – Based on a Recent Survey Conducted Across 12 Cities

38.5

14.8

21.7

23.5

24.4

33.7

37.6

40.1

41.4

56.4

57.5

59.5

61.6

32.7

32.4

43.7

32.1

33.1

36.8

31.9

34

25.3

26.9

20

31.3

13.1

28.9

52.8

34.6

44.4

42.5

29.5

30.6

25.9

33.2

16.7

22.5

9.1

25.3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Overall (12 cities)

Mira Bhayandar

Kolkata

Kochi

Navi Mumbai

Jaipur

Delhi

Chennai

Lucknow

Bhopal

Raipur

Bangalore

Chandigarh

Satisfied Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied Dissatisfied

75% users and 65% non users said they would continue using or use the bus service if it improved

Reasons for Using City Bus Services

14.2

16.2

26.4

28.9

30

32.2

35.2

43.4

72.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Good facilities

Only Choice

Directness of the service

Comfort

Safety

Good Connectivity

Time saving

Easy availability

Economical

Reasons for Non-Usage of City Buses (non users)

2.2

2.4

3.2

4.3

4.4

7.4

10.1

11.1

12.3

21.1

36.5

36.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Feel insecure

Poor connectivity

Bus stops far away

Need to change buses

Pick pocketing

Costlier

No seat availability

Not safe

Non-comfort

Non-availability during commuting time

Longer commuting time

Overcrowding

Perception on Women Safety

44.3%

23.8%

23.1%

79.2%

67.7%

17.5%

51.1%

56.8%

35.2%

25.1%

68.0%

85.3%

23.0%

19.8%

26.3%

23.2%

4.4%

14.9%

18.4%

22.6%

18.8%

24.6%

38.2%

18.7%

4.7%

18.7%

Overall (12 Cities)

Delhi

Kolkata

Bangalore

Chennai

Navi Mumbai

Lucknow

Raipur

Kochi

Jaipur

Chandigarh

Bhopal

Mira Bhayandar

Safe Unsafe

In Delhi, Kolkata, Kochi, Navi Mumbai and Jaipur higher proportion of people feel women are unsafe while traveling on city buses than those who feel otherwise Bhopal, Chandigarh, Raipur, Chennai, Bangalore considered safer

Key Takeaways… Overall

• Fleets replenished and new services launched in many Tier 2 cities with no organized public transport.

• PT ridership improved (in existing cities) and developing (in new cities)

• Some reforms initiated – SPVs created; urban transport funds created; urban departments designated lead; etc.

• Profitability remained an issue and generally worsened

• New and improved rolling stock resulted in improved user satisfaction; but also led to several issues around maintenance and staff training (including for well equipped STUs)

– Breakdown rates worsened

– Fuel efficiency worsened

• Awareness around ITS and new technologies improved for both existing and new players but few successfully implemented these complex systems

Overall, the national schemes had a positive impact on the urban bus sector

Key Takeaways … New Services

• In the cities launching a new service - mixed results.

• Cities such as Bhopal and Raipur have launched well operated services with high levels of user satisfaction

• Most cities launched services without adequate depot facilities (Phase 2 came too late) or service planning; with suboptimal utilisation

• Several cities encountered problems with hiring and management of private operators – weak capacities, poor contracting arrangements, one sided risk frameworks etc.

• In almost all instances the new services were launched in competition with the existing informal (or unregulated) presence, seriously impacting the SPV operations

• Most states/ cities had not anticipated a requirement of funding to maintain operations

• Adequate resourcing of SPV’s a major challenge

The Tier 2 cities have made a start with a formal public transport service, but require a significant scale up with necessary support on the many issues

that emerged, if sustainability is to be ensured

Key Takeaways …

• Quantity & Quality

• Sustainable Funding

• Sustainable Institutions

• Sustainable solutions to integrating with unorganized sector

• Technology

• Capacity Building

THANK YOU

Nupur Gupta

ngupta1@worldbank.org