Update on Update on Chesapeake Bay Chesapeake Bay Model Upgrade Model Upgrade ProjectsProjects

Blue Plains Regional Committee BriefingNovember 30, 2004

Presented by:Steve Bieber

Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments

Blue Plains Regional Committee BriefingNovember 30, 2004

Presented by:Steve Bieber

Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments

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Project DescriptionProject Description

Potomac UpgradePotomac Upgrade– Better spatial scale to Better spatial scale to

simulate water quality simulate water quality responses to responses to management efforts at management efforts at a local scale.a local scale.

– Better simulation of Better simulation of algal species and their algal species and their impacts on water impacts on water quality.quality.

– Sediment and pH-Sediment and pH-alkalinity dynamics alkalinity dynamics critical to the Potomac critical to the Potomac and Anacostia will be and Anacostia will be modeled.modeled.

Chesapeake Bay Chesapeake Bay UpgradeUpgrade– Sediment types and Sediment types and

physical processes physical processes affecting sediment affecting sediment loads will be loads will be incorporated.incorporated.

– Water quality Water quality responses to responses to sediment control sediment control actions will be more actions will be more accurately reflected.accurately reflected.

– Improved sediment Improved sediment controls may reduce controls may reduce the need for WWTP the need for WWTP upgrades.upgrades.

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Estimated Project CostEstimated Project Cost

The total cost of the project is estimated to The total cost of the project is estimated to be $3,504,600be $3,504,600– COE providing 50% of the total estimated project COE providing 50% of the total estimated project

cost ($1,752,300)cost ($1,752,300)– MDE providing not less than $1,059,500 in in-kind MDE providing not less than $1,059,500 in in-kind

servicesservices COG’s commitments consist of $750,000 COG’s commitments consist of $750,000

– $150,000 over 3 years ($450K total) which was $150,000 over 3 years ($450K total) which was approved by the BPRC.approved by the BPRC.

– $300,000 of in-kind services included in COG’s $300,000 of in-kind services included in COG’s Regional Water Resources Regional Fund work Regional Water Resources Regional Fund work program. program.

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Project PartnersProject Partners

Blue Plains Users Blue Plains Users & COG& COG

U.S. EPAU.S. EPA U.S. Army COEU.S. Army COE State of MarylandState of Maryland District of District of

ColumbiaColumbia State of VirginiaState of Virginia

ICPRBICPRB Univ. of MarylandUniv. of Maryland VIMSVIMS LimnoTechLimnoTech HydroqualHydroqual Smithsonian ERCSmithsonian ERC USGSUSGS Occoquan WMLOccoquan WML

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Benefits to the Blue Benefits to the Blue Plains UsersPlains Users Proactive involvement in the regulatory decision Proactive involvement in the regulatory decision

making process: load allocations, permit making process: load allocations, permit conditions, and use attainability.conditions, and use attainability.

The ability to help define management scenarios The ability to help define management scenarios used by regulatory agencies to define nutrient and used by regulatory agencies to define nutrient and sediment load reduction requirements.sediment load reduction requirements.

Up front consideration of costs and model Up front consideration of costs and model uncertainties relative to the predicted magnitude of uncertainties relative to the predicted magnitude of water quality benefits. water quality benefits.

Detailed capability for analyzing local water quality Detailed capability for analyzing local water quality in the tidal fresh waters of the Potomac estuary, in the tidal fresh waters of the Potomac estuary, major embayments, and the Anacostia River.major embayments, and the Anacostia River.

Capability to assess local water quality impacts Capability to assess local water quality impacts under different IMA flow regimes and discharge under different IMA flow regimes and discharge concentrations.concentrations.

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Project ScheduleProject Schedule

2004 2005 2006 2007

RecalibrationRecalibration

Management ScenariosManagement Scenarios

Assemble data and inputsAssemble data and inputsAssemble data and inputsAssemble data and inputs

• Project start date was August 2003

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Erosion Rate MeasuresErosion Rate Measures

This task involves This task involves the measurement the measurement and analysis of and analysis of sediment erosion sediment erosion rates in the rates in the Potomac and upper Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay.Chesapeake Bay.

Most fieldwork will Most fieldwork will take place in the take place in the Potomac. Potomac.

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Light AttenuationLight Attenuation

First year of First year of sampling sampling program program completed. completed. Funded by ERDC Funded by ERDC SMART programSMART program

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Particle Settling Particle Settling VelocityVelocity The goal of this phase of the project is The goal of this phase of the project is

to produce statistically sound to produce statistically sound relationships that relate concentration relationships that relate concentration and sinking of mineral solids (TSS-POC) and sinking of mineral solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional variations with seasonal and regional variations in plankton community structure and in plankton community structure and dynamics. dynamics.

Funding to UMD (Mike Kemp) Funding to UMD (Mike Kemp) commenced May 2004commenced May 2004

First-year report anticipated April 2005First-year report anticipated April 2005

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Estuarine Phosphorus Estuarine Phosphorus ModelModel Simulate the relationship between phosphorus loading Simulate the relationship between phosphorus loading

and production and biomass of living resources in the and production and biomass of living resources in the Potomac River Estuary.Potomac River Estuary.

This is key to predicting the frequency and severity of This is key to predicting the frequency and severity of harmful algae blooms.harmful algae blooms.

BPRC cost-share of $300K being used for this study BPRC cost-share of $300K being used for this study element.element.

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Hydrodynamic ModelHydrodynamic Model

This task involves setting This task involves setting up and calibrating the up and calibrating the CH3D hydrodynamic CH3D hydrodynamic model on a revised grid model on a revised grid suited for detailed suited for detailed sediment transport sediment transport calculations.calculations.

First year planned First year planned activity nearly activity nearly completed. Funded by completed. Funded by EPAEPA

Grid completed and Grid completed and approved after multiple approved after multiple revisionsrevisions

Model is running for three Model is running for three years, 1993, 1994, 1997. years, 1993, 1994, 1997. Undergoing examination.Undergoing examination.

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Boundary Layer Boundary Layer DynamicsDynamics

This task involves This task involves developing algorithms developing algorithms to better characterize to better characterize sediment resuspension sediment resuspension occurring at the very occurring at the very thin sediment – water thin sediment – water boundary layer.boundary layer.

MDE is funding VIMS for MDE is funding VIMS for this activity.this activity.– Contracting is Contracting is

completed. Work is completed. Work is underwayunderway

– Planned work reviewed Planned work reviewed by Modeling by Modeling Subcommittee and Subcommittee and revised by PIsrevised by PIs

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pH - AlkalinitypH - Alkalinity

This task involves developing a mathematical This task involves developing a mathematical modeling framework that relates pH to modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient loading, primary production, and nutrient loading, primary production, and other factors.other factors.– This relates directly to the investigation of This relates directly to the investigation of

harmful algae blooms in the Potomac.harmful algae blooms in the Potomac.– The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for

violating the pH water quality criteria.violating the pH water quality criteria. Field investigation of pH effects on sediment Field investigation of pH effects on sediment

phosphorus release commenced April 2004. phosphorus release commenced April 2004. Completion summer 2005.Completion summer 2005.

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Other ActivitiesOther Activities

Anacostia Monitoring – Anacostia Monitoring – MDE cost share. Three-MDE cost share. Three-year project; 1 year year project; 1 year monitoring completed.monitoring completed.

Fall-line monitoring – Fall-line monitoring – COG cost share. COG cost share. Ongoing program – Ongoing program – contract in place.contract in place.

Surface Waves – Surface Waves – Activity to commence Activity to commence in first project year. in first project year. EPA funds in hand.EPA funds in hand.

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Other Activities Other Activities (Cont’d)(Cont’d) Bank Loads – Spatially Bank Loads – Spatially

detailed estimates of detailed estimates of shoreline erosion will shoreline erosion will be created for the be created for the upper bay and upper bay and Potomac. Potomac.

Linkage to Water Linkage to Water Quality Model will Quality Model will require major code require major code development and development and testing.testing.

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Other Activities Other Activities (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

Algal Speciation – Algal Speciation – objective of this work is objective of this work is to refine and improve the to refine and improve the representation of algal representation of algal speciation, sources, speciation, sources, dynamics and food web dynamics and food web interactions in the interactions in the Potomac portion of the Potomac portion of the Bay model.Bay model.

Phase 5 Watershed Model Phase 5 Watershed Model - distributes flows and - distributes flows and solids loads to the solids loads to the Potomac and upper Bay. Potomac and upper Bay.

Anacostia Stream Bank Anacostia Stream Bank Erosion – better Erosion – better estimates of sediment estimates of sediment inputs from streams.inputs from streams.

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Other Activities Other Activities (Cont’d)(Cont’d) Living Resource Modeling - Living Resource Modeling - This task This task

involves direct modeling of interactions involves direct modeling of interactions between suspended solids and living between suspended solids and living resources. Emphasis will be placed on resources. Emphasis will be placed on

benthos and submerged aquatic vegetation.benthos and submerged aquatic vegetation.