Update on Update on Chesapeake Bay Chesapeake Bay Model Upgrade Model Upgrade ProjectsProjects

Briefing to Potomac River Integrated Monitoring

StakeholdersMarch 20, 2006

Presented by:Steve Bieber

Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments

Briefing to Potomac River Integrated Monitoring

StakeholdersMarch 20, 2006

Presented by:Steve Bieber

Metropolitan WashingtonCouncil of Governments

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Project DescriptionProject Description

Potomac UpgradePotomac Upgrade– Better spatial scale to Better spatial scale to

simulate water quality simulate water quality responses to responses to management efforts at management efforts at a local scale.a local scale.

– Better simulation of Better simulation of algal species and their algal species and their impacts on water impacts on water quality.quality.

– Sediment and pH-Sediment and pH-alkalinity dynamics alkalinity dynamics critical to the Potomac critical to the Potomac and Anacostia will be and Anacostia will be modeled.modeled.

Chesapeake Bay Chesapeake Bay UpgradeUpgrade– Sediment types and Sediment types and

physical processes physical processes affecting sediment affecting sediment loads will be loads will be incorporated.incorporated.

– Water quality Water quality responses to responses to sediment control sediment control actions will be more actions will be more accurately reflected.accurately reflected.

– Improved sediment Improved sediment controls may reduce controls may reduce the need for WWTP the need for WWTP upgrades.upgrades.

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Water Quality Issues Water Quality Issues Unique to PotomacUnique to Potomac Large pool of particulate inorganic phosphorus Large pool of particulate inorganic phosphorus

(PIP) that may not become available for algal (PIP) that may not become available for algal growthgrowth

Large blooms of Microcystis (blue-green algae)Large blooms of Microcystis (blue-green algae) Algal growth more limited by phosphorus than Algal growth more limited by phosphorus than

by nitrogen, especially in tidal fresh portionby nitrogen, especially in tidal fresh portion Potential for nitrogen fixationPotential for nitrogen fixation DC waters listed as impaired due to high pHDC waters listed as impaired due to high pH pH-Alkalinity influence on sediment pH-Alkalinity influence on sediment

phosphorus fluxphosphorus flux

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Project PartnersProject Partners

Blue Plains Users Blue Plains Users & COG& COG

U.S. EPAU.S. EPA U.S. Army COEU.S. Army COE State of MarylandState of Maryland District of District of

ColumbiaColumbia State of VirginiaState of Virginia

ICPRBICPRB Univ. of MarylandUniv. of Maryland VIMSVIMS LimnoTechLimnoTech HydroqualHydroqual Smithsonian ERCSmithsonian ERC USGSUSGS Occoquan WMLOccoquan WML

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Benefits of Upgrade to Benefits of Upgrade to Potomac ModelPotomac Model

ScientificScientific– Better understanding of load-response relationships in Better understanding of load-response relationships in

Potomac River and EstuaryPotomac River and Estuary– More accurate representation of nutrient cycling, More accurate representation of nutrient cycling,

transport and delivery to the main Baytransport and delivery to the main Bay– Design tool for fine scale monitoring programs in Design tool for fine scale monitoring programs in

nearshore areas and local embaymentsnearshore areas and local embayments ManagementManagement

– Explicit representation of Potomac water quality issuesExplicit representation of Potomac water quality issues– Improved capability for load allocations to sources Improved capability for load allocations to sources

within the tidal fresh Potomacwithin the tidal fresh Potomac– Improved capability for investigating trade-offs among Improved capability for investigating trade-offs among

nitrogen, phosphorus and solids loadsnitrogen, phosphorus and solids loads

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StatusStatus Commencement of the project Commencement of the project

outlined in the Corps PMP was April outlined in the Corps PMP was April 2004.2004.

Scheduled completion is April 2007.Scheduled completion is April 2007. We are 22 months into a planned 36 We are 22 months into a planned 36

month project.month project. Congress was good to us this year. Congress was good to us this year.

Planned commitments from DC and Planned commitments from DC and EPA will fulfill major project goals.EPA will fulfill major project goals.

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Estuarine Phosphorus Estuarine Phosphorus ModelModel Simulate the relationship between phosphorus Simulate the relationship between phosphorus

loading and production and biomass of living loading and production and biomass of living resources in the Potomac River Estuary.resources in the Potomac River Estuary.

This is key to predicting the frequency and This is key to predicting the frequency and severity of harmful algae blooms.severity of harmful algae blooms.

One year of really exciting field work has been One year of really exciting field work has been completed.completed.

A new estuarine phosphorus model has been A new estuarine phosphorus model has been proposed.proposed.

A second year of process-oriented field work is A second year of process-oriented field work is planned.planned.

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pH - AlkalinitypH - Alkalinity

This task involves developing a mathematical This task involves developing a mathematical modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient loading, primary production, and other factors.loading, primary production, and other factors.– This relates directly to the investigation of harmful This relates directly to the investigation of harmful

algae blooms in the Potomac.algae blooms in the Potomac.– The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for

violating the pH water quality criteria.violating the pH water quality criteria. Field investigation of pH effects on sediment Field investigation of pH effects on sediment

phosphorus release commenced April 2004. phosphorus release commenced April 2004. Completion summer 2005.Completion summer 2005.

No modeling activity has commenced due to lack of No modeling activity has commenced due to lack of funding.funding.

Funding by DCDHMH is in progress. Two funding Funding by DCDHMH is in progress. Two funding increments.increments.

Delivery date should be pushed back to April 2008Delivery date should be pushed back to April 2008

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Erosion Rate MeasuresErosion Rate Measures

This task involves the This task involves the measurement and measurement and analysis of sediment analysis of sediment erosion rates in the erosion rates in the Potomac and upper Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay.Chesapeake Bay.

Two years field work Two years field work completed by VIMS, completed by VIMS, Horn Point, ERDC – Horn Point, ERDC – mostly in the mostly in the Potomac.Potomac.

Third-year effort is Third-year effort is devoted to data devoted to data analysis.analysis.

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Light AttenuationLight Attenuation

This task involves This task involves fundamental fundamental measures of the measures of the effects of suspended effects of suspended solids on light solids on light attenuation. attenuation.

Two years field work Two years field work completed by completed by Smithsonian. Smithsonian.

Chuck Gallegos is Chuck Gallegos is working on a working on a FORTRAN code to FORTRAN code to complete this complete this project.project.

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Particle Settling Particle Settling VelocityVelocity The goal of this phase of the project is to The goal of this phase of the project is to

produce statistically sound relationships produce statistically sound relationships that relate concentration and sinking of that relate concentration and sinking of mineral solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and mineral solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional variations in plankton community regional variations in plankton community structure and dynamics. structure and dynamics.

Analysis of field data has been completed.Analysis of field data has been completed. Three protocol lab experiments have been Three protocol lab experiments have been

completed. One more in progress now.completed. One more in progress now. Hope for delivery of an algorithm in an Hope for delivery of an algorithm in an

April-May time frame.April-May time frame.

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CE-QUAL-ICMCE-QUAL-ICM

The model is up and The model is up and running for 1994-running for 1994-1999.1999.

Substantial effort has Substantial effort has been devoted to data been devoted to data acquisition and acquisition and processing.processing.

Reformulation and/or Reformulation and/or recalibration is recalibration is required to bring DO required to bring DO into calibration into calibration

Scheduled Scheduled completion = 50%. completion = 50%. Actual = 50%.Actual = 50%.

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Phase V Watershed Phase V Watershed ModelModel

We have 1994-We have 1994-1999 flows 1999 flows mapped to new mapped to new grid. Used to drive grid. Used to drive CH3DCH3D

We lack Phase V We lack Phase V loads for WQM.loads for WQM.

We lack Phase V We lack Phase V flow and loads for flow and loads for 20002000

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Other ActivitiesOther Activities

Anacostia Monitoring Anacostia Monitoring –Three-year project –Three-year project proceeding as proceeding as planned.planned.

Fall-line monitoring –Fall-line monitoring –Ongoing program.Ongoing program.

Surface Waves – Basic Surface Waves – Basic wave model is wave model is complete. Results complete. Results have been passed to have been passed to VIMS for insertion into VIMS for insertion into boundary layer boundary layer model.model.

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Other Activities Other Activities (Cont’d)(Cont’d) Bank Loads – Spatially Bank Loads – Spatially

detailed estimates of detailed estimates of shoreline erosion are shoreline erosion are being created for the being created for the upper bay and Potomac. upper bay and Potomac.

Loads for the Maryland Loads for the Maryland portion of the bay, portion of the bay, including Potomac north including Potomac north shore, are being evaluated shore, are being evaluated by Jeff Halka of MGS.by Jeff Halka of MGS.

Loads for the Virginia Loads for the Virginia portion of the bay, portion of the bay, including Potomac south including Potomac south shore, are from existing shore, are from existing reports.reports.

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Other Activities Other Activities (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

Anacostia Stream Bank Anacostia Stream Bank Erosion – better Erosion – better estimates of sediment estimates of sediment inputs from streams. inputs from streams. Report is completed.Report is completed.

Boundary layer Boundary layer dynamics - dynamics - The The boundary layer model is boundary layer model is “almost completed.” “almost completed.” Incorporates currents Incorporates currents from CH3D and waves from CH3D and waves from wave model.from wave model.

Algal Speciation –Algal Speciation –No No activity and no funding activity and no funding identified.identified.

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SummarySummary

Progress for the Progress for the core of this project, core of this project, suspended solids, suspended solids, is on schedule and is on schedule and proceeding well.proceeding well.

Peripheral efforts Peripheral efforts are behind (pH) or are behind (pH) or unfunded (algal unfunded (algal species modeling).species modeling).

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SummarySummary

Funding to project Funding to project completion has completion has been identified.been identified.

The next year is The next year is “crunch time.”“crunch time.”

More detailed info More detailed info available at available at http://www.chesapeakebayhttp://www.chesapeakebay.net.net