unlocking the mystery behind staffing firm valuations...healthcare staffing revenues are fo recasted...
TRANSCRIPT
Confidential
3438 Peachtree RoadSuite 1400, Phipps TowerAtlanta, GA 30326404.751.3000www.childsadvisorypartners.com
Unlocking The Mystery Behind Staffing Firm Valuations
October 2013
Confidential
Section I Staffing Industry Overview• Market Sizes• Growth Rates• Industry Cycles
Section II Healthcare Staffing Overview
Section III Staffing Public Company Analysis and M&A Update
Section IV Valuation Drivers & Exit Alternatives
Table of Contents
Confidential
Staffing Industry Overview
SECTION I
Confidential
The U.S. staffing industry is forecast to grow 5.0% consecutively in 2013 and 2014, to reach a totalmarket size of $137.1 billion in 2014Actual Projected2011 2012 2013P 2014PC/LI $43.2 $45.8 $48.0 $49.5IT 20.6 22.7 24.2 25.9Engineering/Design 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.3Healthcare 8.8 9.5 9.8 10.5Finance/Accounting 5.7 6.2 6.3 6.6Other Professional 3.3 2.0 2.1 2.3Clinical/Scientific 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1Education/Library NA 1.5 1.6 1.7Marketing/Creative 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0Legal 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
Total Temporary $92.5 $99.0 $103.9 $108.9Place & Search 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.6PEO 9.4 10.2 11.0 11.7Outplacement 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Total Staffing Industry $115.7 $123.8 $130.3 $137.1
Staffing Industry Market Size
4
2013P U.S. Temp Staffing Industry Revenue % by Sector
2011-2014P U.S. Temp Staffing Revenues by Sector
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
From 1995 to 2013, the staffing industry isprojected to have grown approximately $75.0billion In 2013, the largest segment, C/LI is projectedto account for 46.2% ($48.0 billion) of totaltemporary revenues in the U.S. ($130.3 billion)
($ in billions)
Confidential
Illustrated below, there is a clear deceleration of growth rates across all segments Professional segments generally are outpacing C/LI and with a few exceptions expecting growth of 2%-7% in 2013 While down significantly from the growth rates seen in 2011, current rates are consistent with average growth rates for professional segments since 1995 Temporary healthcare is projected to grow slightly less than the overall industry in 2013, and conversely is projected to be an industry leader in 2014 with a revenue growth forecast of 7.0%
Staffing Industry Revenue Growth Rates
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Temporary Growth Rates By Sector2011/2010 2012/2011 2013P/2012 2014P/2013PIT 15.0% IT 10.0% IT 7.0% IT 7.0%Clinical/Scientific 14.0% Marketing/Creative 10.0% Marketing/Creative 7.0% Marketing/Creative 7.0%C/LI 13.0% Clinical/Scientific 10.0% Education/Library 7.0% Education/Library 7.0%Engineering/Design 13.0% Education/Library 8.0% C/LI 5.0% Healthcare 7.0%
Total Temporary 13.0% Healthcare 8.0% Engineering/Design 5.0% C/LI 5.0%Finance/Accounting 12.0% Finance/Accounting 8.0% Other Professional 5.0% Engineering/Design 5.0%Healthcare 11.0% Total Temporary 7.0% Total Temporary 5.0% Other Professional 5.0%Other Professional 9.0% C/LI 6.0% Healthcare 4.0% Clinical/Scientific 5.0%Marketing/Creative 8.0% Other Professional 6.0% Clinical/Scientific 3.0% Finance/Accounting 5.0%Legal (3.0%) Engineering/Design 5.0% Finance/Accounting 2.0% Total Temporary 5.0%Education/Library NA Legal (13.0%) Legal (5.0%) Legal 0.0%Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Confidential The U.S. staffing industry size is near its historical peak size, based both on the U.S. temporary penetration rate (1.99%)and on its total revenue size (adjusting for inflation) The American Staffing Association's (ASA) staffing index increased 24.8% in 2012 and 5.8% YTD in 2013 Investors that expect slower growth should keep an eye on key metrics such as wages, hours, housing prices and headlineCPI numbers In a slower growth environment, certain sectors perform better than others (i.e. healthcare, technology and onlinecompanies) We see the staffing sector as a long-term growth sector as clients use staffing as a strategic “shock absorber” and as moreprofessionals exert their independence
Temporary Penetration Rate
6
Today’s Penetration Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote: Shaded green boxes represent recessionary periodsChart last updated: September 2013
1.00%1.25%1.50%1.75%2.00%2.25%
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Temp penetration rateTe
mp
Wor
kers
(000
's)
Confidential The Staffing Cycle
In a typical cycle, C/LI staffing usually leads the staffing cycle upturn, followed by Professional Staffing and Permanent Placement, which is last to peak The chart and key below illustrate the typical characteristics of the staffing cycle Industry analysts believe that we are currently between point B and C
7Source: Staffing Industry Analysts as of September 2013
Permanent Em
ployment/Pay
roll
Time
Healthcare
A
BC
GDP Growth
YearEconomic Cycle
DE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Prime Time
ABCDE Stop hiring permanent placement employees Begins to impact contingent search companies Economy begins to slow Layoff contractors and temps Economy flattens out Staffing at equilibrium Economy begins to grow Hire contractors and temps Economy continues to recover Hire permanent employees
The consensus is that the current cycle is elongated and the industry will see a few additional years of growth before contraction
B
C
D
E
A
B
D
E
C
Confidential
SECTION II
Healthcare Staffing Overview
Confidential Healthcare Staffing Overview
9
Healthcare staffing revenues are forecasted to be $9.8 billion in 2013
U.S. Healthcare Staffing Industry Revenue Growth (year-over-year % change)
Demand for healthcare staffing services is expected to be driven by:‒ An aging U.S. population‒ Rapid advances in medical procedures and technologies‒ Continuous shift by healthcare organizations to increaseoutsourcing‒ Flexible business models‒ An acute shortage of physicians, nurses and other healthcareprofessionals in the long-term
Industry Highlights
$ in billions
2013E Healthcare Staffing Revenue by Sector
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Travel Nursing$1.616%
Per Diem Nursing$2.828%Locum Tenens$2.424%
Allied$3.232%
Confidential Healthcare Staffing Overview
10
U.S. Healthcare Staffing Revenue Growth by Sector
Following substantial revenue declines in 2009, there is renewed demand for healthcare staffing, particularly in travel nursing, the division of healthcare staffing that retracted the most in 2009-2011- Health information management is one market within allied that is surging
Travel nursing & locum revenues are expected to grow at 8% in both 2013 and 2014 Allied revenues are projected to decrease slightly in 2013 and grow 5% in 2014 Per diem growth is expected to be approximately 5% in 2013 and 7% in 2014
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014PTravel Nursing 3.5% 1.5% (50.0%) (25.0%) 25.0% 15.0% 8.0% 8.0%Per Diem Nursing 0.0% (8.0%) (30.0%) (6.0%) 6.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.0%Locum Tenens 16.0% 13.5% (1.0%) (1.0%) 9.0% 11.0% 8.0% 8.0%Allied 10.5% 7.0% (25.0%) (4.0%) 11.0% 10.0% (3.0%) 5.0%(60.0%)(50.0%)(40.0%)(30.0%)(20.0%)(10.0%)0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
Confidential
Section III
Staffing Public Company Analysis and M&A Update
Confidential
12
Staffing Public Company Analysis
Commercial & Multi-Line StaffingEnterprise Value /
Company Name Stock Price % of 52 Wk
HighLTM
Revenue LTM
EBITDA Adecco S.A. $72.34 99.5% 0.6x 13.1xKelly Services, Inc. $19.74 96.5% 0.1x 8.7xManpowerGroup Inc. $76.43 98.8% 0.3x 10.7xRandstad Holding NV $56.34 99.0% 0.5x 16.2xTrueBlue, Inc. $25.38 91.4% 0.6x 12.9xAverage 97.1% 0.4x 12.3x
IT & Professional StaffingEnterprise Value /
Company Name Stock Price % of 52 Wk
HighLTM
Revenue LTM
EBITDA CDI Corp. $16.37 90.9% 0.3x 8.0xComputer Task Group Inc. $17.99 68.9% 0.7x 11.5xKforce Inc. $17.92 99.6% 0.6x 12.2xMastech Holdings, Inc. $11.56 98.6% 0.4x 9.1xOn Assignment Inc. $33.22 98.5% 1.3x 12.8xRCM Technologies Inc. $6.27 93.3% 0.4x 8.8xRobert Half International Inc. $39.56 96.5% 1.3x 12.2xAverage 92.3% 0.7x 10.6x
Healthcare StaffingEnterprise Value /
Company Name Stock Price % of 52 Wk
HighLTM
Revenue LTM
EBITDA AMN Healthcare Services Inc. $13.47 83.1% 0.8x 10.7xCross Country Healthcare, Inc. $5.99 96.1% 0.4x 30.2xAverage 89.6% 0.6x 20.5x
As of October 15, 2013,
the C/LI, IT/Professional
and Healthcare staffing
sectors traded at an
EV/ LTM EBITDA of
12.3x, 10.6x and 20.5x,
respectively
Note: As of October 15, 2013
Confidential M&A Volume by Sector
13Note: Data obtained from Capital IQ and CHILDS proprietary database as of October 7, 2013
C / LI M&A heats up early in cycle IT / Prof heats up mid / late cycle Healthcare at a low point right now
COUNT 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD OCT 2013IT / Prof 48 51 42 40 63 33C / LI 12 16 20 22 20 24Healthcare 41 24 25 15 15 15Others 48 19 38 40 52 27Total 149 110 125 117 150 99
PERCENTAGE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013IT Prof 32.2% 46.4% 33.6% 34.2% 42.0% 33.3%C / LI 8.1% 14.5% 16.0% 18.8% 13.3% 24.2%Healthcare 27.5% 21.8% 20.0% 12.8% 10.0% 15.2%Others 32.2% 17.3% 30.4% 34.2% 34.7% 27.3%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Confidential M&A Volume by Buyer Type
14
U.S. strategics drove acquisition activity 2007-2009 Foreign strategics have recently become more active PEGs look to repeat what was a very acquisitive year in 2012 with a substantial amount of dry-powder still on the sidelines
COUNT 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD OCT 2013U.S. Strategic 109 77 63 62 93 66International Strategic 33 27 41 49 37 20PEG 7 6 21 6 20 13Total 149 110 125 117 150 99
PERCENTAGE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013U.S. Strategic 73.2% 70.0% 50.4% 53.0% 62.0% 66.7%International Strategic 22.1% 24.5% 32.8% 41.9% 24.7% 20.2%PEG 4.7% 5.5% 16.8% 5.1% 13.3% 13.1%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Note: Data obtained from Capital IQ and CHILDS proprietary database as of October 7, 2013
Confidential
Section IV
Valuation Drivers & Exit Alternatives
Confidential Business Elements Effecting Growth & Valuation
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Clients Expertise
Organizational Structure
Growth Culture and Leadership
Metrics & Process
Management
Strategy & Focus
Niche leadership and committed focus Growth model Technology
Vertical or functional expertise Intellectual capital/differentiation
Attractiveness of client base Client diversification Level of relationships within clients
Strength of management Built for growth Diversity status
Scale and overall revenue size Organic revenue growth Gross profit % EBITDA % Reviewed financials
Experience of 2nd tier management Clear expectations and accountability Margin Focus Hiring profile Compensation Plans
Elements Effecting Valuation
Confidential Staffing Valuation Framework
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Note: based on normalized EBITDA. Industrial and lower gross margin sectors trade at a discount
Client concentration Diversity status Small local firms Revenue <$20mm
One or two market firms with <$100mm revenue
High-volume/low-margin firms
Multi-market firms with scale, solid growth and margins (potential platform)
Best-in-class/platform At least $100mm revenue, high
margin, high growth
4x 5x 6x 7x 8x 9x 10x
Value Drivers Factors that Shift the Spectrum
Scale Revenue growth Margin profile Recurring revenue streams
The overall state of the economy- Multiples are lower as a whole in a down economy
Spectrum depends on the sector Cyclicality decreases the multiples Diversity status
Client base/diversification Management team Growth strategy
Confidential
Company A B C D E F
Company Type Best-in-Class HC Staffing Provider
HCIT Staffing Stand-Alone Locum Tenens Add-on Travel Nursing Stand-Alone < $100M
Allied HC Staffing Stand-Alone < $100M
General HC Staffing Stand-Alone < $100M
Financial Information ($mm)Revenue $500.0 $49.0 $35.0 $90.0 $37.0 $40.0Growth Rate % 7.5% 47.5% 40.0% 17.5% 12.5% 4.0%GP% 28.5% 35.0% 25.0% 27.5% 25.0% 23.5%LTM Adj. EBITDA $86.5 $7.5 $2.3 $10.8 $3.0 $2.8EBITDA% 17.3% 15.3% 6.5% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0%
Transaction InformationEnterprise Value $994.8 $60.0 $17.3 $81.0 $19.2 $16.8Revenue Multiple 2.0x 1.2x 0.5x 0.9x 0.5x 0.4xEBITDA Multiple 11.5x 8.0x 7.5x 7.5x 6.5x 6.0x
Key Value Drivers
ScaleHigh Growth High MarginNicheManagement
Healthcare Staffing Valuation Profiles
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Confidential Exit Alternatives
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Sale to Strategic- Maximum valuation possible if fit is excellent- 70%~80% cash up front plus earn-out- Synergies may drive value in the form of revenue enhancements and cost savings- Earn-outs are usually 1-3 years with varying thresholds, milestones, etc.
Equity Recap- Majority: 51% - 80% of the equity- Minority: 10% - 49% of the equity- Typically involves leverage- Provides partial liquidity now and allows for “second bite of the apple” later- PEGs may have concerns in cashing out too much of management’s share in majority deal- Minority typically valued at a discount to control transaction
Debt Recap- Able to borrow up to 3.0x EBITDA- May involve some warrant coverage- Minimizes equity give-up (“cheap equity”)- Partial liquidity with full equity retentionEmployee Stock Ownership Plan- Shareholders have flexibility to determine percentage of ownership they wish to sell- Significant tax deferral provisions for seller - Great for change of control within an organization or buyout of a current partner- Governance and disclosure requirements are important considerations
Exit Alternatives
Confidential
Pros Cons
Strategic Sale Maximum value possible with synergies Broader operational platform for growth Financial wherewithal Public buyers can stretch on price using stock currency Substantial amount of cash upfront
Loss of control Possible negative to existing management and employees Could disrupt culture Longer due diligence Complexity and integration Earn-out structure has proven to be fairly prevalent and can vary by performance
Recap with Private Equity Group (PEG)
Partial liquidity today with additional exit event later Good for existing management by maintaining decision-making and some level of control Access to growth / add-on acquisition capital Preserves brand and culture Addition of value-add equity partner and insightful Board representation
Loss of control Not a total exit Limits liquidity for management/partners Additional oversight and performance scrutiny
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Exit Alternatives- Pros and Cons
Confidential Takeaways To Company Owners
Define your differentiators and build upon them Develop a solid growth plan and know thy metrics Enhance your profitability Category leaders win big Begin with the end in mind
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