Understanding Urban Pollution Understanding Urban Pollution and the Role of Diesel Exhaust:and the Role of Diesel Exhaust:

Emission SourcesEmission Sources

Understanding Urban Pollution Understanding Urban Pollution and the Role of Diesel Exhaust:and the Role of Diesel Exhaust:

Emission SourcesEmission Sources

Bart E. CroesBart E. CroesChief of the Research DivisionChief of the Research DivisionCalifornia Air Resources BoardCalifornia Air Resources Board

Presentation to:Presentation to:Centre for Science and the EnvironmentCentre for Science and the Environment

New Delhi, IndiaNew Delhi, IndiaNovember 2000November 2000

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

I.I. BackgroundBackground

II.II. Inventory ExamplesInventory ExamplesMobile - diesel NOMobile - diesel NOXX & PM & PM

Area - dustArea - dust

Point - power plantPoint - power plant

III.III. California’s ExperienceCalifornia’s Experience

IV. Reconciliation IV. Reconciliation

India’s Pollution PotentialIndia’s Pollution Potential

Second largest population in world Second largest population in world

Although 26% of population lives in Although 26% of population lives in cities, India has more than 30 cities cities, India has more than 30 cities with population greater than 1 millionwith population greater than 1 million

Tenth largest economy in worldTenth largest economy in world

Example of India’s GrowthExample of India’s Growth

NONOXX emissions expected to double emissions expected to double during each of the next 2 decades during each of the next 2 decades

India’s NOIndia’s NOXX emissions projected to emissions projected to increase from 18% of Asiatic total in increase from 18% of Asiatic total in 1995 to 26% of total in 20201995 to 26% of total in 2020

This large increase despite rapid growth This large increase despite rapid growth throughout Asiathroughout Asia

Example of India’s SourcesExample of India’s Sources

Transportation sector expected to Transportation sector expected to account for 58% of NOX emissions account for 58% of NOX emissions in 2020; 90% of this from dieselin 2020; 90% of this from diesel

Second largest category, LPS, will Second largest category, LPS, will account for 19% of 2020 inventoryaccount for 19% of 2020 inventory

Clean Air

Air Quality MonitoringAir Quality Monitoring

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

Air Quality Air Quality ModelingModeling

ControlControlStrategyStrategy

Building an Air Quality PlanBuilding an Air Quality Plan

Emission InventoryEmission Inventory

““Is a comprehensive listing of Is a comprehensive listing of the sources of air pollution the sources of air pollution andand an an estimateestimate of their of their emissions within a specific emissions within a specific geographic area for a geographic area for a specific time interval.”specific time interval.”

Critical Steps and UsesCritical Steps and Usesof an Emission Inventory of an Emission Inventory

include:include:

Identifying pollutants of concernIdentifying pollutants of concern Identifying sources of pollutionIdentifying sources of pollution Characterizing emissions Characterizing emissions Identifying control strategiesIdentifying control strategies

Types of InventoriesTypes of Inventories

Annual averageAnnual average

Seasonal inventoriesSeasonal inventories

Forecasted - future estimatesForecasted - future estimates

Gridded / ModelingGridded / Modeling

Criteria Pollutants:Criteria Pollutants:

TOGTOG - - total organic gasestotal organic gases

ROGROG - - reactive organic gasesreactive organic gases

COCO - - carbon monoxidecarbon monoxide

NONOxx - - oxides of nitrogenoxides of nitrogen

SOSOxx - - oxides of sulfuroxides of sulfur

PMPM1010 - - PM PM << 10 microns 10 microns

PMPM2.52.5 - - PM PM << 2.5 microns 2.5 microns

Pollutants:Pollutants:ToxicsToxics

Diesel PMDiesel PM BenzeneBenzene 1,3 Butadiene1,3 Butadiene FormaldehydeFormaldehyde Hexavalent chromeHexavalent chrome Perchloroethlyene Perchloroethlyene (PERC)(PERC)

LeadLead

StationaryStationarySourcesSources RefineriesRefineries

ManufacturingManufacturing

Food processingFood processing

Electric utilitiesElectric utilities

Chemical Chemical productionproduction

Area-WideArea-WideSourcesSources

FarmingFarming Paved & unpavedPaved & unpaved

road dustroad dust SolventsSolvents ConsumerConsumer

productsproducts Open burningOpen burning

Mobile SourcesMobile Sources CarsCars

TrucksTrucks

BusesBuses

AircraftAircraft

TrainsTrains

ShipsShips

Non- anthropogenicNon- anthropogenic

Wild firesWild fires

BiogenicsBiogenics

Windblown DustWindblown Dust

How to Develop How to Develop Emission InventoriesEmission Inventories

Developing Emission Developing Emission InventoriesInventories

Planning for inventory Planning for inventory developmentdevelopment

Data collectionData collection

Data management and reportingData management and reporting

Selection of MethodsSelection of Methods

Intended use of inventory Intended use of inventory

Availability of dataAvailability of data

Practicality of methodPracticality of method

Priority of categoryPriority of category

Time/ResourcesTime/Resources

MethodologiesMethodologies Top down approachTop down approach Continuous emission monitorsContinuous emission monitors Source testingSource testing Material balanceMaterial balance Emission factorsEmission factors Fuel analysisFuel analysis SurveysSurveys Engineering judgementEngineering judgement

Estimation ModelsEstimation Models BEIS BEIS (biogenics)(biogenics)

Landfill Gas Emission ModelLandfill Gas Emission Model TANKS TANKS (storage tanks)(storage tanks)

MECH MECH (PM emissions form road, ag.)(PM emissions form road, ag.)

PM Calc PM Calc (PM(PM2.52.5 emissions) emissions)

MOBILE6 / EMFAC2000MOBILE6 / EMFAC2000 OFFROADOFFROAD Model Model

Where to Find InformationWhere to Find Information Emission Inventory Improvement Emission Inventory Improvement

Program Program (EIIP)(EIIP)10 volumes of methods10 volumes of methods

California Air Resources BoardCalifornia Air Resources BoardArea Source ManualArea Source ManualSpeciation ManualsSpeciation ManualsCATEF toxic emission factorsCATEF toxic emission factors

U. S. EPAU. S. EPA CHIEF clearinghouse CHIEF clearinghouse Fire Database (toxic factors)Fire Database (toxic factors)

Calculate EmissionsCalculate Emissions

Process RateProcess Rate (ActivityActivity)

Number ofNumber of UnitsUnits

EmissionEmissionFactorFactorxx

EmissionsEmissions per Unitper Unit

xx

EmissionsEmissions==

TotalEmissions

==

Data CollectionData Collection

Activity dataActivity data

Emission factorsEmission factors

Facility information Facility information

Spatial and temporalSpatial and temporal

SpeciationSpeciation

Data Quality ObjectivesData Quality Objectives

AccuracyAccuracy // uncertaintyuncertainty CompletenessCompleteness RepresentativenessRepresentativeness ComparabilityComparability Consistency Consistency ReasonablenessReasonableness

DocumentationDocumentation

Methods usedMethods used

Sources of dataSources of data

AssumptionsAssumptions

CalculationsCalculations

CommunicationCommunication

Data ReportingData Reporting

Annual average Annual average

Seasonal Seasonal

Forecasted Forecasted

GriddedGridded // modeling modeling

Mobile, Area, and Point SourcesMobile, Area, and Point Sources

Mobile - Cars, trucks, tractors Mobile - Cars, trucks, tractors Area - Dust from land preparation, Area - Dust from land preparation,

windblown dust, unpaved road windblown dust, unpaved road dust, pumpsdust, pumps

Point - Processing facilitiesPoint - Processing facilities

How to ExamplesHow to Examples

Mobile - dieselMobile - diesel

Area - agricultureArea - agriculture

Point - power plantPoint - power plant

Emissions Inventory Emissions Inventory DevelopmentDevelopment

Basic EquationBasic EquationPop*Activity*Emissions = tons/dayPop*Activity*Emissions = tons/day

Number of Sources (vehicle population)Number of Sources (vehicle population)

Activity (miles or kilometer per vehicle)Activity (miles or kilometer per vehicle)

Emission Rate (grams per mi. or km.)Emission Rate (grams per mi. or km.)

Vehicle PopulationVehicle Population(Source: Department of Land Transport)(Source: Department of Land Transport)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

# O

f V

ehic

les

1998 2000 2005 2010

Calendar Year

MotorcyclePass CarLight TruckMed TruckHeavy TruckBusTaxi

Vehicle ActivityVehicle Activity(Miles per Vehicle per Day - Source: Mobile5)(Miles per Vehicle per Day - Source: Mobile5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mil

es p

er D

ay

PC LDT MDT HDT MC Bus

Emission FactorsEmission Factors(Source: Mobile5)(Source: Mobile5)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Odometer (miles)

HCCO/10Nox

(Zero Mile or Intercept)

Deterioration RateIncrease in Emissions

As a Function of Usage

1998 Oxides of Nitrogen 1998 Oxides of Nitrogen EmissionsEmissions

(Gasoline Powered Vehicles - 119.7 TPD)(Gasoline Powered Vehicles - 119.7 TPD)

Taxi4%

LDT6%

MDT0%

PC75%

MC15%

PCLDTMDTTaxiMC

1998 Particulate Emissions1998 Particulate Emissions(Gasoline Powered Vehicles - 19.39 TPD)(Gasoline Powered Vehicles - 19.39 TPD)

MC57%

PC36%

LDT5%

MDT0%

Taxi2%

PC

LDT

MDT

Taxi

MC

1998 Oxides of Nitrogen 1998 Oxides of Nitrogen EmissionsEmissions

(Diesel Powered Vehicles - 74.99 TPD)(Diesel Powered Vehicles - 74.99 TPD)

MDT6%

HDT28%

Bus23%

PC2%

LDT41%

PC

LDT

MDT

HDT

Bus

1998 - NO1998 - NOXX Emissions Emissions

Other4%

Power Plants18%

Mobile Sources-

Diesel25%

Ind. Sources19%

Mobile Sources-Gas

34%

NOX Emissions = 107,500 tons/day

1998 - PM10 Emissions1998 - PM10 Emissions

Power Plants12.3%

Other36.9%

Mobile Sources-

Diesel10.6%

Ind. Sources18.8%

Mobile Sources-Gas

21.4%

PM10 Emissions = 58,200 tons/day

How to ExamplesHow to Examples

Mobile - diesel Mobile - diesel

Area - agricultureArea - agriculture

Point - power plantPoint - power plant

Overview of Estimation Overview of Estimation MethodologyMethodology

Emission FactorEmission Factor (EF)(EF)Emissions per unit of activity Emissions per unit of activity

(i.e., lbs/PM(i.e., lbs/PM1010 per acre tilled) per acre tilled)

Activity DataActivity Data (Process Rate, PR)(Process Rate, PR)Vehicle Miles Traveled, Acre-PassesVehicle Miles Traveled, Acre-Passes

EmissionsEmissionsEmissions = EF x PREmissions = EF x PR

Inventoried Agricultural Inventoried Agricultural Emission SourcesEmission Sources

Field & orchard operations Field & orchard operations (dust)(dust) land preparation & some harvestingland preparation & some harvesting

Windblown dustWindblown dust fields and unpaved roadsfields and unpaved roads

Unpaved roads & unpaved areasUnpaved roads & unpaved areas

Farm equipment exhaustFarm equipment exhaustmobile & stationarymobile & stationary

Inventoried Agricultural Inventoried Agricultural Emission Sources Emission Sources (continued)(continued)

Open burningOpen burningprunings, residue, weeds prunings, residue, weeds

Industrial point sourcesIndustrial point sourcesProcessingProcessingCotton processing and handlingCotton processing and handlingPackingPacking

PesticidesPesticides

Agricultural Emissions Agricultural Emissions SummarySummary

Source ROG NOx PM10

Point Sources Ag. fuel combustion Ag. other Non-Ag. sources

110

109

470

133

7.55.615

Dust Sources Land preparation Harvesting Unpaved roads Windblown Non-Ag dust sources

79213248

220

Livestock 70 11

Burning 10 4.1 14

Mobile Ag. Equipment Non-Ag. mobile

3.8186

61249

1.72.3

Pesticides 44

All SJV sources* 490 500 450

Emissions data from 1996 emissions inventory.

Monthly SJV PMMonthly SJV PM1010

EmissionsEmissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

PM

10 E

mis

sio

ns (

tons/d

ay)

JAN APR JUL NOV

Unpaved Road Dust

Fugitive Windblown

Farming Operations

Other Sources

San Joaquin Valley PM10 EmissionsMonthly 1993 Emission Estimates

Source Categories

Inputs to Emissions Inputs to Emissions CalculationsCalculations

Source Information Used for Estimates

Point Sources Ag. fuel combustion Ag. other

data supplied to air district by facility operators;facilities typically permitted; emissions based onfuel use, throughput, etc; emission factors fromsource tests, AP-42, etc.

Land Preparation

single emission factor from AP-42, acre-passesfrom ARB survey, soil silt from NRDC, cropacreage from CDFA; moisture correction basedon UCD data

Harvestingemission factors from UCD for cotton, almond,walnut only, not equipment specific; acreagefrom CDFA

Unpaved Roadssingle EF for state based on UCD & DRI data,vehicle miles traveled approximated based oncrop acreage for ag. roads

Windblown Dust

ARB method based on USDA equation;includes climate, irrigation, canopy, fieldconfiguration, residue, soil, roughness; variesby crop and region

Inputs to Emissions Inputs to Emissions CalculationsCalculations

Source Information Used for Estimates

Livestock

ammonia methods under development; EFsbased on existing literature data; populationfrom Ag. statistics service, CDFA, andindustry; ROG and PM EFs from AP-42

Burningdistrict estimates burning emissions; EPAemission factors, various sources of acreageburned

Mobile Ag. Equipmentcomputed by ARB; includes fuel andequipment specific emission factors; activitydata based on equipment classes

Pesticidesdata supplied by department of pesticideregulation, processed by ARB to include ininventory

Current Inventory ShortcomingsCurrent Inventory Shortcomings Cultivation practices not includedCultivation practices not included

Most harvest activities not includedMost harvest activities not included

Land preparation estimates not activity specific Land preparation estimates not activity specific (e.g., discing, planing)(e.g., discing, planing)

Unpaved road dust estimates genericUnpaved road dust estimates generic

Unpaved staging and parking areas not includedUnpaved staging and parking areas not included

Current Inventory Current Inventory Shortcomings Shortcomings (continued)(continued)

Soil conservation practices not Soil conservation practices not includedincluded

Effects of dust deposition not Effects of dust deposition not includedincluded

Ammonia sources not includedAmmonia sources not included

Biogenics not includedBiogenics not included

Quantifying Emission EstimatesQuantifying Emission Estimatesfor Alternate Practicesfor Alternate Practices

Effects on activity dataEffects on activity dataacre-passesacre-passesvehicle miles traveledvehicle miles traveled

Effects on emission factorsEffects on emission factorsnatural gas vs dieselnatural gas vs dieselmulching vs burningmulching vs burningequipment differencesequipment differencesmoist vs dry soilmoist vs dry soil

Control effectiveness & penetrationControl effectiveness & penetration

Issues for Incorporating Issues for Incorporating Alternative PracticesAlternative Practices

Seasonal exceedancesSeasonal exceedancesDo changes help when air quality is poor?Do changes help when air quality is poor?

Location specific exceedancesLocation specific exceedancesAre the changes in a region with poor air quality?Are the changes in a region with poor air quality?

Benefit from baseline emissionsBenefit from baseline emissionsDo the changes produce a reduction from Do the changes produce a reduction from

baseline estimates?baseline estimates?

Control OptionsControl Options Find ways to reduce Emission FactorFind ways to reduce Emission Factor

soil or unpaved road stabilizationsoil or unpaved road stabilization limit activities under high emitting conditions (such as high limit activities under high emitting conditions (such as high

winds)winds)control equipment, cleaner engines, cleaner fuelscontrol equipment, cleaner engines, cleaner fuelscleaner equipment, etc.cleaner equipment, etc.

Reduce Activity DataReduce Activity Dataminimize unpaved road travelminimize unpaved road travelminimize land preparation passesminimize land preparation passesperform activities when less air impactsperform activities when less air impacts

ControlsControls Water or soil stabilizationWater or soil stabilization Less emissive practicesLess emissive practices

crop residuecrop residueerosion controlserosion controls

Dust track-out controlsDust track-out controls Seasonal selective controlsSeasonal selective controls Electric pumpsElectric pumps Deposition on crops (removal mechanisms)Deposition on crops (removal mechanisms) etc.etc.

Incorporating Controls to Incorporating Controls to Emission EstimatesEmission Estimates

RulesRules Enforceability & complianceEnforceability & compliance Voluntary measuresVoluntary measures Availability of inputs to evaluate Availability of inputs to evaluate

control effectivenesscontrol effectiveness

How to ExamplesHow to Examples

Mobile - diesel Mobile - diesel

Area - agricultureArea - agriculture

Point - power plantPoint - power plant

Overview of SOOverview of SO22 Estimation Estimation

Basic EquationBasic EquationActivity*Mass Fraction*2 = SOActivity*Mass Fraction*2 = SO22/day/day

Activity (tons fuel burned per day)Activity (tons fuel burned per day)

Mass Fraction (tons S per ton fuel)Mass Fraction (tons S per ton fuel)

2 = 64/32 = MW2 = 64/32 = MWSO2SO2/MW/MWSS

Overview of NOOverview of NOXX Estimation Estimation

Emission FactorEmission Factor (EF)(EF)Emissions per unit of activity Emissions per unit of activity

(i.e., lbs of NO(i.e., lbs of NOX per ftper ft33 of fuel burned) of fuel burned)

Activity DataActivity Data (AD)(AD)cubic feet of fuel burnedcubic feet of fuel burned

EmissionsEmissionsEmissions = EF x ADEmissions = EF x AD

ComplexitiesComplexitiesInvolved Involved

ininDevelopingDeveloping

ananEmissionsEmissionsInventoryInventory

EmissionsEmissions ActualActual

– Measured or estimated emissions which most accurately represent the emissions from an emissions Measured or estimated emissions which most accurately represent the emissions from an emissions unit. For example: The actual rate of emissions is defined in tons per year of any regulated pollutant unit. For example: The actual rate of emissions is defined in tons per year of any regulated pollutant emitted from a major source over the preceding two years. Actual emissions shall be calculated using emitted from a major source over the preceding two years. Actual emissions shall be calculated using the unit's actual operating hours, production rates,and types of materials processed, stored, or the unit's actual operating hours, production rates,and types of materials processed, stored, or combusted during the preceding calendar year or other defined period. For a new emission unit, actual combusted during the preceding calendar year or other defined period. For a new emission unit, actual emissions equal the potential to emit of the unit.emissions equal the potential to emit of the unit.

AllowableAllowable Permitted emissions levels. Actual should not exceed allowable emissions.Permitted emissions levels. Actual should not exceed allowable emissions.

PotentialPotential The maximum physical and operational design capacity to emit a pollutant. Limitations on the physical The maximum physical and operational design capacity to emit a pollutant. Limitations on the physical

or operational design capacity, including emissions control devices and limitations on hours of or operational design capacity, including emissions control devices and limitations on hours of operation, may be considered only if such limitations are incorporated into the applicable Authority to operation, may be considered only if such limitations are incorporated into the applicable Authority to Construct and Permit to Operate. EPA Part 70 regulations define potential to emit as the "maximum Construct and Permit to Operate. EPA Part 70 regulations define potential to emit as the "maximum capacity of a stationary source to emit any air pollutant under its physical and operational design." In capacity of a stationary source to emit any air pollutant under its physical and operational design." In general, this definition means that emissions from a source must be estimated at maximum capacity general, this definition means that emissions from a source must be estimated at maximum capacity over 365 days per year. over 365 days per year.

Growth FactorsGrowth Factors

What are growth factors?What are growth factors?Factors based on specific economic Factors based on specific economic

profiles for certain industry typesprofiles for certain industry types

or based on demographic dataor based on demographic data

Control FactorsControl Factors

What are control factors?What are control factors?Control factors are derived from rules and Control factors are derived from rules and

regulations which impose emission regulations which impose emission reductions or a technological change on a reductions or a technological change on a particular emission process. particular emission process.

EffectivenessEffectivenessand Durability ofand Durability of

Emission ControlsEmission Controls

Motor VehicleMotor Vehiclecatalyst, vapor recovery, OBD, clean fuelscatalyst, vapor recovery, OBD, clean fuels

Stationary SourcesStationary Sourcesscrubbers, cyclones, electrostatic scrubbers, cyclones, electrostatic

precipitators, bag housesprecipitators, bag houses

PMPM1010 Inventoried Sources Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Mobile6%

Other Mobile4%

Industrial & Other7%

Waste Burning1%

Residential Wood Burn6%

Wildfires4%

Conctruction11%

Farming4%

Paved Road Dust41%

Fugitive Windblown

4%

Unpaved Road Dust12% Source: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

440 tons/day

PMPM2.52.5 Estimates - What’s Missing? Estimates - What’s Missing?(for starters...)(for starters...)

PMPM2.52.5 emissions not based on PM emissions not based on PM2.52.5 emission emission factorsfactors

Activity data for many categories is incomplete and Activity data for many categories is incomplete and outdatedoutdated

Limited spatial/temporal resolutionLimited spatial/temporal resolution Current inventory is missing important componentsCurrent inventory is missing important components

elemental carbon elemental carbon (soot)(soot)organic carbon organic carbon (organic combustion particles)(organic combustion particles)semi-volatile organics semi-volatile organics (partition gas/particle)(partition gas/particle)

ammoniaammonia

PMPM2.52.5 Emission Estimates Emission Estimates

PMPM2.52.5 inventory issues very different inventory issues very different from PMfrom PM1010 inventory inventory

Ambient PMAmbient PM2.52.5 includes substantial includes substantial secondary particulate levelssecondary particulate levelsSome precursors are inventoried, but... Some precursors are inventoried, but... Secondary PM is NOT part of inventorySecondary PM is NOT part of inventory

Need spatial & temporal resolutionNeed spatial & temporal resolution

PMPM2.52.5 Inventory and Inventory and

Secondary PMSecondary PM Secondary PM can be an overwhelming Secondary PM can be an overwhelming

contributor to PMcontributor to PM2.52.5 exceedances exceedances The emissions inventory cannot provide The emissions inventory cannot provide

secondary PM emissionssecondary PM emissions PrecursorPrecursor inventories inventories andand atmospheric atmospheric modelingmodeling

are required to obtain secondary PM estimatesare required to obtain secondary PM estimates Control strategy development requires Control strategy development requires

estimates of secondary PMestimates of secondary PM

Inventoried PMInventoried PM2.52.5 Emission Emission

SourcesSources

Directly emitted pollutants onlyDirectly emitted pollutants onlygeologicgeologicvegetative burningvegetative burningmobile sourcesmobile sourcessome precursorssome precursors

NONOXX SOSOXX total organic gasestotal organic gases

PMPM2.52.5 Inventoried Sources Inventoried Sources(directly emitted, preliminary estimates)(directly emitted, preliminary estimates)

Mobile Sources13%

Fuel Combustion4%

Industrial & Other6%

Waste Burning11%

Residential Wood Burn16%

Wildfires9%

Farming Operations

12%

Construction1%

Paved Road Dust8%

Fugitive Windblown

6%Unpaved Road Dust14%

Source: ARB 1995 Statewide Inventory with updated 8/98 size speciation 830 tons/day

Mobile6%

Industrial6%

Burning15%

Geologic73%

2100 tons/day

PMPM1010 vs PM vs PM2.52.5 Statewide Statewide Emission InventoriesEmission Inventories

Mobile13%

Industrial10%

Burning35%

Geologic42%

PM10

PM2.5

830 tons/daySource: ARB 1995 Inventory with updated 8/98 size speciation

• PM10 and PM2.5 sources differ substantially

• PM2.5 emissions based on scaled PM10 emissions

On-Road Diesel9%

On-Road Gas2%

Tire & Brake2%

Off-Road Moble10%

Industrial14%

Burning30%

Geologic33%

Organic Carbon18%

Elemental Carbon

8%

Sodium1%

Chloride1%

Geologic6%

Sulfate9%

Nitrate40%

Ammonium17%

Emissions Inventory Ambient Species(CMB analysis - all species)

Slices with lines are secondary PM

Does not include secondary PMRubidoux, 1997 AQMP, App. V, SCAQMD

Direct & Secondary PMDirect & Secondary PM2.52.5

Inventory vs Ambient Air Inventory vs Ambient Air for SCAQMDfor SCAQMD

What is in the Air?What is in the Air?Mobile6%

Industrial5%

Geologic6%

Burning16%

Nitrates67%

Secondary compoundsSecondary compoundssometimes significantsometimes significant

Extremely variableExtremely variableBy seasonBy seasonBy locationBy locationBy dayBy day

San Joaquin Valley PMSan Joaquin Valley PM2.52.5

(hypothetical winter day)(hypothetical winter day)

From ammonia and From ammonia and

combustion exhaustcombustion exhaust

primary, directprimary, direct

emissionsemissions

secondarysecondary

emissionsemissions

California’sCalifornia’sExperienceExperience

Success in Clean AirSuccess in Clean Air Due to stringent control programDue to stringent control program

Must account for growthMust account for growth

Stationary ControlsStationary Controlscontrol of industrial sourcescontrol of industrial sourcesconsumer products, paintsconsumer products, paints

Mobile ControlsMobile Controlsengine standardsengine standardsretrofit existing enginesretrofit existing enginesclean fuelsclean fuels

CARB Mobile Source and Fuels CARB Mobile Source and Fuels Regulations and ProgramsRegulations and Programs

New engine emission standards New engine emission standards In-use durability requirementsIn-use durability requirements Retrofit existing enginesRetrofit existing engines Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural

gasgas Promote national and international Promote national and international

standards for trucks, ships, and aircraftstandards for trucks, ships, and aircraft New technologies for the futureNew technologies for the future

Diesel PM and NOx ControlsDiesel PM and NOx Controls

Cleaner diesel fuelCleaner diesel fuelVery low sulfur enables after-treatment Very low sulfur enables after-treatment

Exhaust after-treatmentExhaust after-treatmentPM traps > 90% efficientPM traps > 90% efficientNOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency potentialNOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency potential

Alternative fuels: natural gasAlternative fuels: natural gas

New technologies: fuel cellsNew technologies: fuel cells

CARB NOx Emission Standardsfor On-Road Trucks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

g/hp-hr

1990

1991

1998

2004

1985

Possible Future Standards• NOx aftertreatment-based• 75-90% reduction • 2007 goal

CARB PM Emission StandardsFor On-Road Trucks

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

g/hp-hr

1988

1991

1994truck

bus

Possible Future Standards• PM trap-based• ~90% Reduction • 2007 goal

CARB Cleaner Fuels ProgramCARB Cleaner Fuels Program 1992: Eliminated lead from gasoline, 1992: Eliminated lead from gasoline,

limited vapor pressure, required limited vapor pressure, required oxygenates in winter to reduce carbon oxygenates in winter to reduce carbon monoxidemonoxide

1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning 1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning gasoline” to achieve maximum gasoline” to achieve maximum reductions in ozone and toxicsreductions in ozone and toxics

1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, 1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, reduce sulfur and benzene furtherreduce sulfur and benzene further

Cleaner Industrial SourcesCleaner Industrial Sources

Best controls on new and existing sourcesBest controls on new and existing sources

Controls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxicsControls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxics

Diesel particulate matter controls to Diesel particulate matter controls to reduce toxics risk reduce toxics risk

Cleaner Consumer ProductsCleaner Consumer Products

CARB has set ROG emission limits for nearly 50 categories of CARB has set ROG emission limits for nearly 50 categories of consumer products and 35 categories of aerosol paints and consumer products and 35 categories of aerosol paints and coating products.coating products.

CARB regulations will reduce emissions by 53 tons per day in CARB regulations will reduce emissions by 53 tons per day in Los AngelesLos Angeles

Air Quality Improvement Air Quality Improvement versus Growthversus Growth

-50 -47 -30

+41 +81 +75

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Per

cen

t Ch

ang

e19

80-1

998

Ozone PM10 Toxics Population VehicleTravel

Economy

Relative Toxics Risk for Relative Toxics Risk for Diesel PMDiesel PM

Based on CARB’s 1995-1997 ambient monitoring data and estimated diesel PM concentrations

Ben

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Ben

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Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Need for regulatory frameworkNeed for regulatory framework Inventories take time and resources Inventories take time and resources Inventory development is a Inventory development is a

continuous and iterative processcontinuous and iterative process Reduced emission means improved Reduced emission means improved

air qualityair quality

NONOxx Inventoried Sources Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Gasoline45%

On-Road Diesel18%

Other Mobile22%

Fuel Combustion10%

Industrial2%

Areawide3%

1100 tons/daySource: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

ROG Inventoried SourcesROG Inventoried SourcesSouth Coast Air Basin, 1996South Coast Air Basin, 1996

On-Road Gasoline42%

On-Road Diesel3%

Other Mobile9%

Fuel Combustion1%

Degreasing9%

Coatings13%

Other Stationary9%

Consumer Products

9%

Misc5%

1100 tons/daySource: ARB 1996 Statewide Inventory

Southern California Southern California NONOxx, ROG, PM, ROG, PM1010

Stationary11%

Area-wide3%

On-road65%

Other Mobile

21%

NONOxx

Stationary23%

Area-wide16%

On-road51%

Other Mobile

10%

ROGROG

Stationary7%

Area-wide84%

On-road6%

Other Mobile

3%

PMPM1010

Source: 1999 California Almanac of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline Vehicles

Diesel Vehicles Other Mobile

19851990

1995

0

400

800

Em

issi

ons

(ton

s pe

r d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile

Southern California Trends Southern California Trends NONOxx, ROG, PM, ROG, PM1010

NONOxx

ROGROG

PMPM1010

Source: 1999 California Almanac of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Emission trends NOEmission trends NOxx

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Emission trends ROGEmission trends ROG

19851990

1995

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

Emission trends PMEmission trends PM1010

19851990

1995

0

400

800

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Stationary Area-wide Gasoline VehiclesDiesel Vehicles Other Mobile Source: 1999 California Almanac

of Emissions & Air Quality, ARB

RECONCILIATIONRECONCILIATION