understanding trends summer 2015

TIM STOCK SUMMER 20151

week 2

Parsons School of Design Summer Intensive Seminar

understanding trends


how do you define a trend? what words come to mind?


first tip: always consult a good dictionary


past present futurepatterns patterns

trends evolve over time



not cool

cool

trend analysis leverages insight into how things changethey are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)

not cool


trendspotting vs. trend analysis is there a difference?


trendspotting leads to fads a skimming the surface to capitalize on culture


culturebrand

codes

PRODUCT DESIGN

BRAND ARCHITECTURE

BRAND COMMUNICATION

BELIEFS

RITUALS

SYMBOLS

MEANING

innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories


culturebrand

codes

BELIEFS

RITUALS

SYMBOLS

MEANING

innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories


Culture

trends are about “why” more than “what”


language patternstime

the mechanics of culture key elements for understanding change


CULTURAL SIGNALS MIGRATE IN SMALL NETWORKS


social groups propogate ideology (meaning evolves)

BELIEFS MEANINGRITUALSYMBOLS ARTIFACTS

Aa

b

c

de


CULTURE IS A COGNITIVE PROCESS our analysis must uncover the cognitive systems that drive trends

code

LANGUAGE

past present future


the signals that give stuff meaning how culture is

operating

craft

retro

guilt

LANGUAGE

finding the codes of cultureclues to how culture is operating reside in the language within the artifacts that we consume

CODES


code

code

LANGUAGE

THE LANGUAGE AND CODES IN YOUR FRIDGElearning to read the meaning of what we buy, use and share

Photographer Mark Menjivar

past present future


analyzing beards why have beards trended over the last five years?


1950 1970 1990 2015

beards

analyzing beards over time does the meaning change? why?


beards are plot points analyzing the state of the human condition


analyzing beards as ngrams does the meaning change? why?


analyzing beards the key is knowing how to find signals that index future value before everyone else finds them too.



analyzing cronuts the language within cronuts reveals the real story


ritualssymbols

boulangeries rising what is the language? what does it tell us?

code

code

language


food trucks rising what is the language? what does it tell us?

code

language

ritualssymbols


diffusion limits how to visualize the structure of trends


symbol

zeitgeist badge

ritual

visualizing culture as a dynamic system

“you need to see things this way”

“i’ll have what she’s having”

“look what i have”

“show me how to do that”

26


visualizing culture as a dynamic system


symbol

zeitgeist badge

ritual

these patterns reveal how new language is formed


“i’ll have what she’s having”

“look what i have”


28

the pattern of aspiration

the pattern of dissent


analytical expressive

coun

ter

collective

innovators

sym

bolic

the early innovatorscommunitykinship breeding adoption

actioninfluencerstrend conditions give status

identitymass market

easy to join inzeitg

eist

product & service innovation in sync with culture


why do all hipsters look the same?


culture mapping the evolution of organic31

the pattern of aspiration

the pattern of dissent

Organic FarmingPolitics Community Food Co-Ops Cookbooks

Localized Chains

New Urbanism

organic

LabeledMass Retail


do we drink more coffee today than in 1945?


we actually drank more coffee in 1945 (bad coffee… but coffee)


the ideology of coffee over time how does the meaning change? why?



“i’ll have what she’s having” “look what i

have”


35

culture mapping coffee in 2015 predicting the future depends on seeing the patterns

local coffee houses

coffee


starbucks was caught off guard in 2008


the consumer’s perception is the brand’s meaning

code

language


what happened that changed perception in 2008?

[simple]

[complex]

code

code

LANGUAGE


french is back


how does the brand regain authenticity?


SHARING TABLES

43

START BY SOURCING EMERGING CULTURAL LANGUAGE

GREEN MARKETS

LOCAL

TRANSPARENT

PHYSICAL

CRAFT

SOCIAL


START BY SOURCING EMERGING CULTURAL LANGUAGE

GROWLERS

BOULANGARIES

LOCAL

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

LOCAL

CRAFT

PHYSICAL


TRANSLATING CODES INTO NEW RETAIL PLATFORMS

STARBUCKS RETAIL

3RD PLACE


new competition grows on cultural believability

TECHNIQUE


starbucks works to catch up on these cultural signals

PREMIUM

TECHNIQUE


TRANSLATING CODES INTO NEW RETAIL PLATFORMS

STARBUCKS VERISMO

CONVERSATION

LOCAL


as well as platforms that focus the zeitgeist

STARBUCKS EXPRESS

SIMPLE


how would starbucks map opportunity in china?


tomorrow Meet at Metropolitan Museum of art

by 10:15am at the visitors desk

understanding trends summer 2015

Lifestyle