understanding systems thinking
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Russell Martin & Associates 9084 Technology Drive, Suite 500, Fishers, IN 46038
(317) 475-9311 @[email protected]
Systems Thinking
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Why Systems Thinking? An ExampleCreating a Causal Loop Diagram
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to
ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.”
- Chief Seattle
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com Page 2
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Systemic, complex problems are tough to fix; they keep coming back.
There is no language for discussing the interaction of multiple, complicated parts.
There is no recognition that our ‘interpretation’ of the situation drives the system.
Time delays and feedback loops are also drivers of good or bad systems.
Fixes may not be possible, but improvement is.
We’re multitasking and we can’t think well.
Page 3
I never should have sent that
email last
night!!!
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
As Exercise increases, Health increases (same)
As Health increases, Exercise increases (same)
As Exercise decreases, Health decreases (same)
As Health decreases, Exercise decreases (same)
Page 4
Health Exercise
S
S
Time
Growth
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 5
Amount
EatenWeight
S
O
As Amount Eaten increases, Weight increases (same)
As Weight increases, Amount Eaten decreases (opposite)
As Amount Eaten decreases, Weight decreases (same)
As Weight decreases, Amount Eaten decreases (opposite)
Time
Growth
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 6 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 7
Opposite
Same Opposite
Opposite
Same
Same
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 8
Opposite
Same Opposite
Opposite
SameSame
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
“Successful adaptation to the environment requires that an organism be capable of learning.” - Richard Restak, M.D. “The Brain”
Page 9 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Pick a problem that you’ve tried to solve unsuccessfully.
Create a team of vested interest.Create a WHY question.Build a Reinforcing Loop that supports the
question aka Rock Back and Forth.Find the Balancing Loops (and other
Reinforcing Loops) Tell the stories in ‘both directions’.
Page 10 Page 10 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
o WHY is _______happening?
o No WHAT or HOW
o Avoid: Should, blame
“Why should we sell more?”
“Why doesn’t the Help Desk help?”
o Seek: Observable fact
“Why does fund raising fluctuate?
Why can’t we steadily
increase fund raising?
Triggering QuestionTriggering Question
?? Page 11 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 12
Start with the NOUN of the WHY question?
Why does PRIDE interrupt our faith and
happiness?
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 13
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 14 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 15
…may change as you learn
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Create a WHY question you have a passion for solving.
Vote / Sign Up.Create the best WHY question – keep it in
plain sight.
Page 16 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
SS
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund raisers
Donations
Revenue
Links: “As Donations increase, what happens to
Revenue?
(decrease/increase = same/opposite)
S
“Why can’t we increase donations?”
Variables = measurable nouns
(not quantifiable)
Page 17 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
Avoid sequence… don’t think
THENBad Example:
Donations happen then
buying happens
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Donations
Think backwards
Close the loop
Think forward
Start Here
Page 18 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
What happens when donations increase?
What causes donations to increase?
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
SS
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund raisers
Donations
Revenue
S
“Why can’t we increase donations?”
Delay = a passage of time that provokes flawed perceptions of cause and effect
Page 19 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Remember your best WHY question – keep it plain sight and change it if it makes sense to.
Create the NIRVANA / HELL reinforcing loop.
Page 20 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 21
“Our experience is that donations are not steadily increasing or steadily decreasing. It ‘feels’ more like a roller coaster. Never gets to good or too bad. Something bounces us back up or down. There had to be more than a Nirvana/Hell reinforcing loop. Something else is going on.”
What keeps donations from steadily increasing?
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Reinforcing Loop
Balancing Loop
S
Sales Loop
O
S
Market Loop
SFund Raising Productivity Perceived
Timely Follow-up
Timely Follow-Up
Attention to Donors
S
S
S S
Reinforcing loops will have an even number (or no) Opposites
Balancing loops will have an odd number of Opposites
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raisers
Donations
Revenue
S
“Why can’t we increase donations?”
Page 22 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Reinforcing Loop Balancing Loop Balancing Loop
Fund raising goes UP UP UP
(or DOWN DOWN DOWN)
Backlog of follow-up work influences reputation and
deadens fund raising
Additional support help arrives too little, too
late
S
SS
O
S S
OS
S
SRequest for Additional
Staff / Support
Staff / Support
S
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raiser
s
Donations
Revenue
Fund Raising Productivity Perceived
Timely Follow-up
Timely Follow-Up
Attention to Donors
“Why can’t we increase donations?”
Page 23 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Reinforcing Loop Balancing Loop Balancing Loop
Fund raising goes UP UP UP
(or DOWN DOWN DOWN)
Backlog of follow-up work influences reputation and
deadens fund raising
Additional support help arrives too little, too
late
O
SS
S
S S
Sales Loop
O
Production LoopS
Market LoopS
SRequest for Additional
Staff / Support
Staff / Support
S
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raiser
s
Donations
Revenue
Fund Raising Productivity Perceived
Follow-upTime
Follow-upTime
Attention to Donors
“Why can’t we increase donations?”
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com Page 24
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 25
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 26 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Remember the WHY question – keep it plain sight.
Create the Balancing Loops and other reinforcing loops that tell your actual story.
You have 45 minutes to build your Causal Loop Diagram
Page 27 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Map Mental ModelsName the LoopsA “Remember” Checklist
Page 28 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Does it Feel Right?(“this doesn’t feel like a balancing loop to me…”)
When we have more donations we can ramp up
our fund raisers
The more fund raisers we have,
the more donations we’ll
get
Every donation creates revenue
We only invest in fund raising when
we have extra money
People will be reluctant to give again
The staff is stressed and needs help
quickly
It takes awhile to find good
people
As donors feel they are
unappreciated, it will be harder to
fund raise.
O
SS
S
S S
Sales Loop
O
Production LoopS
Market LoopS
S
S
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raisers
Donations
Revenue
Fund Raising Productivity Perceived
Follow-upTime
Request for
Additional Staff /
Support
Staff / Support
Follow-upTime
Attention to Donors
This goes up when this goes up because…
When we get too many donations,
our staff gets overloaded
We don’t get our thank you letters out accurately or
quickly
The donors notice they never heard
from us
The workload decreases with
more help
© Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com Page 29
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
The Rich Get
Richer
Build It And
They Will Com
e
O
SS
S
S S
Sales Loop
O
Production LoopS
Market LoopS
SRequest
for Additional
Staff / Support
Staff / Support
S
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raisers
Donations
Revenue
Fund Raising Productivity Perceived
Follow-upTime
Follow-upTime
Attention to Donors
You Can’t Always
Get W
hat You
Want
Page 30 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
A variable will often have more than one cause and/or more than one effect. Tell the story “As stress increases sleep decreases” [cause/effect] not “Stress happens then you
can’t sleep” [flowchart / sequential] Use nouns for variables - avoid action.
Donations not High Donations Use things that can be easily measured.
Length of Project not Time Use the positive (desired) sense.
Positive Feedback not Negative Feedback Think of unintended as well as expected outcomes.
Caffeine intake influences early morning and evening alertness Think of perceived as well as actual variables.
Perceived value is different than Actual Benefit Consider a broader scope if you can’t settle on one WHY question. Avoid Why am I stressed
AND overweight? (multiple questions). To make more understandable, combine variables to tell the simplest story. Corporate donations
+ individual donations + grant money = Donations
Page 31 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Where is your leverage?What can your company do, your team do,
you do?What intervention is sustainable and possible?
Page 32 Page 32 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
“The trick to problem solving is not just ‘know-how,’ but ‘know-when’ --which lets you adapt the solution method
to the problem, and not vice versa.”- Gerald Weinberg
• Intervention can be proposed and tested
• Mental Models are revealed
• The initial concern has been explored enough to try out some action
Page 33 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 34 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S& Page 35 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Fund Raising: Better trained fund raising staff (more with
less)Marketing: Have a plan to
outsource follow-up temporarily when donations spike
Capacity Planning: Predict capacity needs as a
function of fund raising investment
Revisit the purpose
Create trial interventions and do mental simulations using the model
Examine delays: Can you shorten?
Acknowledge personal responsibilities: “Start Where You Are”Examine Mental Models: more
sales staff more bookings
O
SS
S
S S
The Rich Get Richer
O
Build It And They Will ComeS
You Can’t Always Get What You Want S
SRequest
for Additional
Staff / Support
Staff / Support
S
S
Portion of Revenue Spent on
Fund Raising
Fund Raisers
Donations
Revenue
Fund Raising Productivity Perceived
Follow-upTime
Follow-upTime
Attention to Donors
Page 36 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Revisit your Causal Loop DiagramBrainstorm answers to the following:
How could your organization improve this problem? What balanced interventions would improve and not make worse?
How could your work team improve this problem? How has your approach to this problem changed as
you’ve modeled it? What are you going to do?
You have 20 minutes to build your Intervention
Page 37
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
“The bottom line of systems thinking is leverage - - seeing where actions and
changes in structures can lead to significant, enduring improvements.”
- Peter Senge
Page 38 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
At www.russellmartin.com:
•Purchase books
•Get our LEARNING FLASH e-zine for more tips and tools
•Find out about workshops, webinars, e-learning and virtual alumni communities
Page 39 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
@nolecture Lou Russell
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
40
Trust by Leadership in Their People
Trust by People in
Their Leadership
Performance
Personal Rewards
Desire forStability
Autonomy to Make
Decisions
Appropriately Skilled
(Strategic) People
Personal Buy-In
Client Expectations
Level of Investment
Education Emphasis
Resource (HR, $, Infra) Availability
Clarity of Need
Degree of Shared Vision
& Values
Perceived Need for
Communication
Effectiveness of Communication
Agility
s
s
s
R
We Are Good
B
I Read My Press
Clippings
s
s
s
o
s
s
s
R
Go-pher It
s
s
s
ss
s
s
o
s
s
B
Fading Vision
David Aga, Tom Collins, Tom Igielske, Rachel Korstad, Merald
Nesje, Bob Roepke, Bob Stemwedel
23 Aug 96
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
s
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Page 40 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Interventions Change Reward System.
Mixed Model Aggressively and Continually Communicate Vision and Values.
Us Do Be willing to balance skills development with the need to respond to day-to-day
pressure (value thinking). Expand model and share with influencers.
Mental Models1 In times of rapid change, my performance may depend on my ‘improv’ abilities.
No two days are alike.2 Consistent satisfaction leads to trust -- not brownie points or awards, but the
intangibles -- trust, respect, confidence, good will.3 I don’t know to punch a clock mentally or physically. I set my schedule, my
priorities, my collaborations with colleagues.4 I can react quickly to changes because I ‘have my own head’, I can think for
myself.5 The better I do, the higher I raise the bar for myself for next time.6 When I deliver satisfaction, people will take the investment approach rather than
the expense approach. Solid short-term performance is just a given. 7 High-leverage resources of all varieties become more available, even with the
understanding that they take a while to come on-line.
Page 41 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Mental Models, continued 8 Acting with agility depends on having appropriate resources available -- that’s the third leg of the ‘agility stool’. 9 Clearly one of the high leverage resources is an ‘improved me’! My portfolio needs to grow over time
because the future will likely not be like the past.10 When I attend conferences and classes and engage in reflection, I gain two ways -- I better understand
the skills which will become more valuable in the future, and I understand that that understanding is itself valuable!
11 I need to have the right skills to be agile, but ‘right’ changes from situation to situation and over time.12 I get rewarded for my ‘actual’ performance, not my potential to perform, not for being agile, but for
performing with agility.13 When I get rewarded, I tend to repeat the things that I think led most directly to that reward.14 I invest in getting good at something, but it turns out not to have strategic value. My practices were
okay when things were stable, but now the environment is just too turbulent. I wake up and I’m obsolete!
15 I want to look like I know what I’m doing. When I sense that my performance has pleased people in the short term, I’m more likely to buy in for the long haul.
16 I trust that the leadership will not put me in a position where I will fail or embarrass myself.17 Since ‘they’ haven’t made ‘me’ fail, I come to believe that they do know where they’re going. They
and Me become We.18 If we think we agree, we probably won’t engage in further conversation to ‘prove’ it.19 And if we do, we will likely just use jargon and short-cuts -- but our interpretations of those things will
drift apart because of our different experiences.20 Clarity does not come telepathically -- and even if it did, telepathy is still a kind of communication!21 My strategy derives from the need, which is connected to the organization’s (and my own) vision.
Page 42 © Russell Martin & Associates www.russellmartin.com
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
Please select a card and concentrate on your selection.
R U S S E L L M A R T I N
A S S O C I A T E S&
We have selected your card and removed it from the pile.