NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Understanding Driver Refueling Behavior

Ryan Daley, NREL

January, 30 2014

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Agenda

1. Alternative Fuel use in the Federal fleet

2. Empirical analysis of refueling behavior

3. Survey of Federal fleet drivers

4. Changing driver refueling behavior

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Federal fleet Acquisitions & Inventory

Total FY 2013 AFV Acquisitions by covered Federal Agencies

Total FY 2013 AFV Inventory of covered Federal Agencies

GAS 14,757

E85 21,317

HEV 1,384 DSL

3,792

CNG 113

EV 274

PHEV 258

LPG 23

HYD 2

GAS 325,657 E85

177,892

DSL 63,913

HEV 15,833

PHEV 507

ELE 3,608

CNG 1,437

LPG 204 HYD

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4

FY13 Petroleum Consumption

Total Petroleum 292,282,393

Diesel 53,487,487

B20 Diesel 4,248,008

Gasoline 234,546,898

253,676,039

211,396,699

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

E.O. 13514 Requirement

*Excludes military tactical, law

enforcement, and emergency vehicles.

Includes Diesel portion of Biodiesel B20.

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16,217,531

E-85 14,055,686

Bio-diesel 1,481,936

11,629,942

22,663,468

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CNG

LPG

Electric

Hydrogen

LNG

Total Alternative Fuel

FY13 Alternative Fuel Consumption

*Excludes military tactical, law enforcement, and emergency vehicles.

**Includes all alternative fuels: Biodiesel portion of B20, B100, E85, CNG, LNG, LPG, Hydrogen, and Electricity.

E.O. 13423 Requirement

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Gasoline 76.0%

Diesel 18.7%

E-85 86.7%

Bio-diesel 9.1%

CNG 2.2%

LPG 1.5%

Electric 0.5%

Alt. Fuel 5.3%

FY13 Alternative Fuel Consumption

AFV’s comprise 34% of all Federal vehicles, but

Alternative Fuel is 5.3% of total Federal fuel use.

FY 2013 Total Fuel Use (GGE)

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Consumer Behavior change in the Federal Fleet

Vehicles Infrastructure

Behavior

• NREL LDRD: $400k over 3 yrs

• Applied behavioral research to increase E85 use in Fed fleet

Missed Opportunity: FFV purchases Gas w/in 5 mi. of E85

Made Opportunity: E85 purchase

Total Opportunities: Missed + Made

Non-Opportunities: FFV purchases Gas further than 5 miles from E85

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Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns

State level analysis of missed opportunity trends

• 4 years, 12 Agencies, 4.4M transactions, 68k vehicles

Linear regression of Missed Opportunity rates. They will be lower:

• Over time as infrastructure availability increases

• The closer the vehicle is to it’s garage

• When there is an E85 station w/in 5 miles of garage

• When the vehicles have access to E85 more frequently

• In the Midwest

• In the summer months

• In “established” markets

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Regional & E85 Market Designations

Market Scores = Gas Vehicles/Gas Stations : FFV’s/E85 Station

Established > 0.75 Emerging 0.25 – 0.75 Developing 0.10 – 0.25 Nascent < 0.10

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Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns

No correlation with Missed Opportunities

• Operational variables: GGE/Vehicle, distance from garage

• Seasonal variations are not significant

Positive correlation with Missed Opportunities

• E85 infrastructure growth rates

Significant negative correlation with Missed Opportunities

• Over time: rates are lowest in 2011 & 2012

• When there is an E85 station w/in 5 miles of garage

• When the vehicles have access to E85 more frequently

• In the Midwest & “established” markets

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Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800%

Mis

sed

Op

po

rtu

nit

y R

ate

E85 Station Growth Rate

Missed Opportunities vs. E85 Growth Rate Major Findings

• E85 Growth Rate is positively correlated with Missed Opportunities

• There is a time lag between station growth and actual use

• If you build it… they might come eventually

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Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Mis

sed

Op

po

rtu

nit

y R

ate

Opportunities to Purchase E85 (% of all FFV fuel purchases)

Missed Opportunities vs. Total Opportunities

South West Midwest Northeast

Major Findings

• Frequency of proximity matters

• EPAct § 701 works, but has unintended consequences

• The Midwest dominates

• Newer markets show potential

• Strength of the linear models = ~35%

ND

IA WI

MN

CO

SC

KY

ID

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Survey Description

• Anonymous online survey, 35 questions in length

• Survey distributed via FEMP contact database

o FEDFLEET & regional workshop attendees, GSA reports carryout contacts

o 6/11/12 and 7/10/12 delivered to 10,847 contacts

• 3,314 respondents (31% response rate)

• 48 federal organizations

• Broad geographic distribution

• Top five responding agencies:

o Department of Agriculture

o Department of Transportation

o Department of Homeland Security

o Office of Personnel Management

o Department of the Interior

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Who is the “Federal Fleet Driver”?

1,028 31%

2,286 69%

69% Male - 31% Female 70% have been driving a federal vehicle for more than 5 years

990

729

744

590

236

25

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

1-5

6-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

> 40

How many years have you been driving a federal vehicle?

21-30 7%

31-40 18%

41-50 27%

51-60 34%

61-70 11%

61% are 41-60 yrs old

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Not Sure 27%

No 32%

Yes 41%

Driver Knowledge

Can your primary federal vehicle use E85 fuel?

1/4 don’t know if they’re driving an FFV

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Survey – Specific Findings

What is the likelihood that you would drive the following additional distances/time increments out of your way to purchase E85? • 0% (I would never…) to 100% (I would always…)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

< 1 mi / < 5 mins

1-3 mi / 5-10 mins

3-5 mi / 10-15 mins

> 5 mi / > 15 mins

TIME

DISTANCE

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Survey – Specific Findings

Purchasers

(P)

What (statistically significant) variables contribute to a respondents likelihood to be a “Purchaser”?

1. Receive feedback from Mgmt – P (28%) SP (20%) NP (17%)

2. Aware of requirement to use Alt Fuel – P (76%) SP (60%) NP (42%)

3. Received training on requirements – P (42%) SP (30%) NP (26%)

4. Info on Availability of Fuel – P (59%) SP (44%) NP (30%)

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Changing Driver Behavior - Feedback

https://federalfleets.energy.gov/FleetDASH/

Sample Department Leased Fleet Fuel Use

FleetDASH tracks fuel consumption throughout the year.

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Changing Driver Behavior - Feedback

• Automated monthly performance feedback

• Positive vs. Negative

• Peer to peer vs. Individual comparisons

• Monitor the impact on refueling behavior, and adapt

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Changing Driver Behavior - Training

• 15-minute, on-demand training

• EPAct 2005 § 701 requirement to use alternative fuel

• How to identify dual-fuel vehicles

• How to locate alternative fuel stations

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Changing Driver Behavior – Find E85

afdc.energy.gov/locator/stations

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Changing Driver Behavior – Next Steps

• NPS Driver Behavior, Education & Training Program

• Project Description

o Establish baseline fleet performance

o Conduct NPS driver survey

o Develop targeted driver behavior coaching/training

o Measure and monitor the results

• Refine a replicable service in Organizational and Individual Behavior Change

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