understanding debt and currency crises

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  • 8/10/2019 Understanding Debt and Currency Crises

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    www.vbribetpgr`gptile.`lj

    ^] JB@QL [OGJB[I@ PG] 1=2; ].=

    Wekgrstbekieh kgatbek `urrge`y `risgs Pgptgjagr 1=2;

    @letgets[og ^] @urrge`y bek kgat `risisnrbjgwlrd ....................................... 0 Pg`tile I3 Nrlj Ieklegsib tl Irgfbek Fgbreieh nrlj ]rgvilus @risgs...... ; Bsib 29983 b `belei`bf gjgrhiehjbrdgt risis .................................... ; Ppbie bek Irgfbek 1==?3 ikgetinyieh bkgat risis ie rgbf tijg ...................... ? B `rystbf abff is elt eg`gssbry ....... 2= Be Gbstgre Gurlpge GJ @risis3Fbtvib bek tog Abfti`s 1==? ........... 20 Pg`tile II3 Kgvgflpjget ln bNrbjgwlrd tl Ogfp Nlrg`bst Nuturg@risgs ............................................ 2? @rgkit risis ................................... 2? Bppfyieh tog `rgkit `risis nrbjgwlrdie 1==> bek 1==8........................... 12 Ikgetinyieh urrge`y `risgs ............. 10 Bppfyieh tog `urrge`y `risisnrbjgwlrd ie 1==> bek 1==8 ......... 17

    @ljpfgjget tl fgbkieh ieki`btlrs .. 1> ^bribet ]gr`pgtile3 tog vbfug lnagieh bogbk .................................. 1?

    Ie tog fbtgst pbrt ln lur Wekgrstbekieh... sgrigs wg flld bt kgat bek `urrge`y`risgs. Agieh bafg tl nlrg`bst woi`o `luetrigs brg jlst bt risd tl g`lelji``risgs is be gssgetibf tllf nlr tog jb`rl ievgstlr. It lnngrs hrgbt trbkgs le togsolrt sikg agnlrgobek bek rbrg abrhbies ie tog jikst ln pbei` kurieh b `risis.Ie tois pig`g, wg flld bt prgvilus kgat bek `urrge`y `risgs, su`o bs Bsib ie2998 bek tog Gurlpgbe pgripogry ie 1==?, bek wg solw olw togy obvgienlrjgk lur uekgrstbekieh ln olw su`o `risgs pfby lut.

    Wsieh tog delwfgkhg hbiegk nrlj stukyieh prgvilus `risgs, wg obvgnlrjbfisgk lur iesihots ietl b suitg ln ieki`btlrs tobt rgfibafy prgki`t woi`o`luetrigs wiff nb`g `risgs. Xg gxpfbie bek solw woi`o nb`tlrs brg tog agstprgki`tlrs ln `risis bek olw togy `be ag usgk. Xg agfigvg togsg ieki`btlrsbrg ueiqug bek wiff ag`ljg iekispgesbafg tl ievgstlrs wisoieh tl trb`d woi`og`leljigs brg jlst vufegrbafg tl `bpitbf bek fiquikity sol`ds.

    Lur ieki`btlrs brg `urrgetfy nfbhhieh leg prijg `bekikbtg nlr b `urrge`y `risisbek beltogr nlr b kgat `risis.

    OIHOFIHO[P

    5 Kgat fgvgfs jbttgr. It is agst tl `ljpbrg tog stl`d ln kgat wito HK] lrgxtgrebf kgat wito rgsgrvgs. [og jlst `ljjle trbit wg sgg wito niebe`ibf`risgs is b vgry nbst `rgkit hrlwto nrlj bfrgbky gfgvbtgk fgvgfs. Lur tllfstobt wg obvg kgvgflpgk lacg`tivgfy trb`d tog sizg ln kgat bek rbtg lnhrlwto.

    5 @urrget b``luet kgni`its jbttgr bek brg leg ln tog jlst ijplrtbetjgbsurgs tl nlfflw. ]grsistget `urrget b``luet kgni`its brg lntgebssl`ibtgk wito kljgsti` `rgkit-nugffgk alljs bek pllr egt ietgrebtilebf

    [OGJB[I@

  • 8/10/2019 Understanding Debt and Currency Crises

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    www.vbribetpgr`gptile.`lj

    ^] JB@QL [OGJB[I@ PG] 1=2; ].=

    ievgstjget plsitiles. It is leg ln tog agst prgki`tlrs ln nuturg `risgs. Inylu `lufk lefy flld bt leg nb`tlr, it wlufk ag tog `urrget b``luet.

    5 [og stru`turg ln tog abfbe`g soggt bfsl jbttgrs, bek lwieh jlegy ieb nlrgihe `urrge`y is kisbstrlus . B``gptieh nlrgihe `bpitbf ienflws islntge b dgy krivgr ln kgvgflpjget nlr gjgrhieh g`leljigs, aut lntge tog`bpitbf ienflws brg solrt-tgrj ie ebturg (gquity/alek ievgstjgets) rbtogrtobe jlrg stbafg bek fleh-tgrj nlrgihe kirg`t ievgstjget. Nlrgihe

    `urrge`y bek solrt-tgrj alrrlwiehs brg gxbjpfgs ln sl-`bffgk ievgrtgkkgat. Oihofy ievgrtgk kgat stru`turgs brg vgry kbehgrlus ag`busg togyrgienlr`g eghbtivg sol`ds. Wenlrtuebtgfy togy brg vgry plpufbr ag`busgie hllk tijgs, woge kgat fgvgfs typi`bffy risg, togy jbheiny plsitivgsol`ds.

    5 [og `ljplsitile ln tog ievgstlr absg jbttgrs3 nlrgihe alekolfkgrsbrg gbsigr tl kgnbuft le. B slvgrgihe kgnbuft is bfwbys b plfiti`bfkg`isile, bek it is gbsigr tl kgnbuft in (nlrgihe) `rgkitlrs obvg fittfg kljgsti`plfiti`bf plwgr lr ienfuge`g. It is bfsl gbsigr tl kgnbuft le olusgolfks vibniebe`ibf rgprgssile tobe it is tl kgnbuft le wgbftoy bek plwgrnuf fl`bfs.