Uncertain times: international Uncertain times: international mobility of atoll dwellers in the mobility of atoll dwellers in the

central Pacific central Pacific

Richard Bedford, Charlotte Bedford and John CorcoranRichard Bedford, Charlotte Bedford and John CorcoranUniversity of Waikato and University of AdelaideUniversity of Waikato and University of Adelaide

1616thth International Metropolis Conference, “Migration Futures: International Metropolis Conference, “Migration Futures: Perspectves on Global Changes”, Azores, 12-16 September 2011Perspectves on Global Changes”, Azores, 12-16 September 2011

A context: uncertain timesA context: uncertain times

Disappearing islands? Futures for atolls Disappearing islands? Futures for atolls and reef islands in the central Pacific under and reef islands in the central Pacific under conditions of climate change and sea level conditions of climate change and sea level rise.rise.

A “youth bulge” and social disorder? A “youth bulge” and social disorder? Futures for employment and economic Futures for employment and economic development in atolls and reef islands in the development in atolls and reef islands in the central Pacific in the 21st centurycentral Pacific in the 21st century

A platform: the Pacific ForumA platform: the Pacific Forum

In his address to the Pacific Forum on 7 September In his address to the Pacific Forum on 7 September 2011 in Auckland, Anote Tong, President of Kiribati, 2011 in Auckland, Anote Tong, President of Kiribati, raised the notion of a floating island as one of the raised the notion of a floating island as one of the strategies for dealing with adverse effects of global strategies for dealing with adverse effects of global warming and associated environmental change.warming and associated environmental change.

Tong said he had seen models for a $2 billion Tong said he had seen models for a $2 billion floating island, which he likened to a giant offshore oil platform. He said while it sounded "like something from science fiction," every idea had to be considered given the dire situation facing Kiribati, a low-lying archipelago with a population of 103,000.

A disappearing country?A disappearing country?

Other ideas to combat rising ocean levels include building a series of seawalls at a cost of nearly $1 billion, Tong said, and relocating some residents to other Pacific nations. But he said he couldn't imagine a day that Kiribati was abandoned.

"Would Kiribati disappear?" he said. "Never. Never.” And technically it won’t because one island, Banaba, is a raised coral island – a source of phosphate in the past.

A paradoxA paradox

Elizabeth Thomas-Hope reminded us yesterday that “while the freedom to move/migrate is important, the freedom not to have to migrate is also important. The freedom to remain in the home island has long been jeopardized by economic and political crises in many places, but added to this is the risk of major environmental change, due - at least in part - to global warming, that will increasingly reduce the freedom of populations to remain in their home location if they wish or need to do so.”

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Futures for youth?Futures for youth?

In 2004 a group of Pacific leaders strongly advised In 2004 a group of Pacific leaders strongly advised everyone to:everyone to:

““Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning population of young people in the region, and population of young people in the region, and recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful populations on the resources required for education populations on the resources required for education and vocational training, healthcare and job and vocational training, healthcare and job opportunities”opportunities”

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Youthful populationsYouthful populations

CountryCountry % tot pop% tot pop

0-14 yrs0-14 yrs

% tot pop% tot pop

15-24 yrs15-24 yrs

Kiribati: 2005Kiribati: 2005 36.736.7 20.920.9

Kiribati: 2030Kiribati: 2030 28.828.8 18.318.3

New Zealand: 2006New Zealand: 2006

New Zealand: 2030New Zealand: 2030

20.820.8

11.911.9

14.514.5

7.87.8

Kiribati’s populationKiribati’s population

Census yearCensus year TotalTotal UrbanUrban

19471947 31,50031,500 3,100 (10%)3,100 (10%)

19681968

19851985

47,70047,700

63,90063,900

10,600 (22%)10,600 (22%)

21,100 (33%)21,100 (33%)

20052005

20302030

20502050

92,50092,500

137,000137,000

163,000163,000

40,300 (44%)40,300 (44%)

75,400 (55%)75,400 (55%)

98,000 (60%)98,000 (60%)

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Tradition of overseas migrationTradition of overseas migration

Labour migration, phosphate islands -- Labour migration, phosphate islands -- Banaba (Ocean Is) and NauruBanaba (Ocean Is) and Nauru

Resettlement, Fiji, SolomonsResettlement, Fiji, Solomons Plantation labour, Vanuatu and other PacificPlantation labour, Vanuatu and other Pacific SeafarersSeafarers Temporary work and settlement, NZ Temporary work and settlement, NZ

Kiribati populations: New ZealandKiribati populations: New Zealand

CensusCensus BirthplaceBirthplace EthnicEthnic

19861986 123123 141141

19911991 225225 180180

19961996

20012001

318318

504504

330330

540540

20062006 822822 969969

I-Kiribati in New ZealandI-Kiribati in New Zealand

CensusCensus Island-bornIsland-born NZ-bornNZ-born

19861986 9999 42 (30%)42 (30%)

19911991 102102 78 (43%)78 (43%)

19961996

20012001

189189

309309

141 (43%)141 (43%)

231 (43%)231 (43%)

20062006 597597 372 (38%)372 (38%)

Immigration policy changes, NZImmigration policy changes, NZ

1986 Immigration Policy Review -- visa-1986 Immigration Policy Review -- visa-waiver status conferred on Kiribati and waiver status conferred on Kiribati and TuvaluTuvalu

1992 Work Permit schemes established1992 Work Permit schemes established 2002 Visa-waiver status and work permit 2002 Visa-waiver status and work permit

schemes replaced by Pacific Access schemes replaced by Pacific Access CategoryCategory

2007 Recognised Seasonal Employer “kick-2007 Recognised Seasonal Employer “kick-start” state start” state

Net migration, 1979-2011Net migration, 1979-2011

March yearsMarch years PLTPLT TotalTotal

1979-20111979-2011 532532 4,1924,192

1982-861982-86 3131 120120

1987-911987-91 7070 280280

1992-961992-96

1996-011996-01

131131

9090

600600

1,2701,270

2002-062002-06

2007-112007-11

2424

167167

630630

817817

Approved visas, 2002-11Approved visas, 2002-11

Visa categoryVisa category 2002-62002-6 2007-112007-11

VisitorVisitor 1,3431,343 2,7852,785

StudentStudent 442442 625625

Temporary work (RSE)Temporary work (RSE) 618 (0)618 (0) 1,409 (319)1,409 (319)

Residence Residence

Skilled/businessSkilled/business

441441

2323

661661

2929

FamilyFamily

International (PAC)International (PAC)

6969

328 (276)328 (276)

106106

526 (478)526 (478)

A traditional strategy:A traditional strategy:minimizing risk by investing in several minimizing risk by investing in several

strategies simultaneouslystrategies simultaneously

Adaptation of atoll environmentAdaptation of atoll environment Employment off-shoreEmployment off-shore Raising international awareness of global warming-Raising international awareness of global warming-

related changesrelated changes Retaining independence and keeping open all Retaining independence and keeping open all

optionsoptions Maintaining a commitment to an atoll homelandMaintaining a commitment to an atoll homeland