ucs report. heat in the heartland. 60 years of warming in the midwest

7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest

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Climate Changeand Your health

Heat in the Heartland60 Years of Warming in the Midwest


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A U T H O R S

Elzbet Mtn Pee is a public health analyst

ormerly with the Climate & Energy Program o the

Union o Concerned Scientists.

T Sn is a climate scientist with the Climate

& Energy Program o the Union o Concerned Scientists.

Jlnne L. WteNewsme is the Kendall Science

Fellow in Climate Change & Public Health at the Union

o Concerned Scientists.

Luence S. Klksten is a research proessor in the

Department o Geography and Regional Studies at

the University o Miami.

Jenne K. Vns is a consultant or Applied

Climatologists, Inc.

Ksten We is a reelance science writer.

A c k n O w l e d g m e n T S

This report was made possible through the generous

support o the Barr Foundation, The Energy Foundation, the

Fresh Sound Foundation, The Grantham Foundation or the

Protection o the Environment, the Scherman Foundation,

The Viola Fund, and members o the Union o Concerned

Scientists.

The authors would like to express their gratitude to the many

people at UCS who provided thoughtul review o the report,

including Steven Frenkel, Angela Anderson, Kathleen Rest,

Rachel Cleetus, Brenda Ekwurzel, Peter Frumho, Heidi Moline,

Lisa Nurnberger, and Nancy Cole.

External reviewers including Claudia Tebaldi (Climate

Central), Marie S. ONeill (University o Michigan School o

Public Health), Richard B. Rood (University o Michigan), Rupa

Basu (CA Oice o Environmental Health Hazard Assessment),

George Luber, Gino Marinucci, and Paul J. Schramm also pro-

vided invaluable eedback on an earlier version o this report.

Lexi Shultz made substantial contributions to its develop-

ment, and the authors would like to thank her or her eorts.

We are greatly appreciative o Nancy Cole, Dena Adler,

Bryan Wadsworth, Sandra Hackman, and David Gerratt or

their tireless dedication to the production o the report.

Organization affiliations are for identification purposes only.The opinions expressed in this report are the sole responsibilityof the authors.

July 2012

Union o Concerned Scientists

All rights reserved

Photos: (top to bottom) iStockphoto.com/Mari; JupiterImages; iStockphoto.com/Ridoranz; iStockphoto.com/Lisa F. Young; iStockphoto.com/bowdenimages

Cover photos: (top, L to R) iStockphoto.com/Sandra L. Nicol; iStockphoto.com/agentry; iStockphoto.com/LSOphoto;(bottom, L to R) iStockphoto.com/EdStock; iStockphoto.com/gchutka;

Gary Braasch


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Climate Change

and Your health

c O n T e n T S

2 Executive Summary

5 Introduction

9 How We Analyzed Summer

Weather Trends in the Midwest

10 Accounting for Urban HeatIsland Effects

11 Evaluating Daytime and

Nighttime Trends

12 Findings: The Midwest

Is Heating Up

12 Changes in Summer Weather

Patterns

14 Changes in Overnight Temperature,

Humidity, and Heat Index

16 What the Future Could Bring

17 The Impact of Dangerous

Summer Weather on Health

18 Quantifying the Health Effects

of Extreme Heat

23 Climate Change and Hot Weather

25 Building Resilient Communities

25 How Communities Can Protect

Health during Extreme Heat

27 How Midwest Cities Are

Taking Action

30 Where Do We Go from Here?

31 References

36 Endnotes

Figures

7 Figure 1: The Heat Index

8 Figure 2: Source Regions andMovements of Air Masses

11 Figure 3: Sample Heat Index Forecast

for July 21, 2011

13 Figure 4: Frequency of Moist Tropical+

Air Masses in St. Louis from 1946

to 2011

16 Figure 5: A Future with More Days

above 90F

21 Figure 6: Heat Disorders

23 Figure 7: Scorching Summers

Become the Norm24 Figure 8: Southern Weather Comes

to Illinois

Table

20 Projected Deaths Each Year from

Extreme Summertime Heat

Boxes

6 Weather 101

8 Types of Air Masses

11 Spotlight on 201113 A Closer Look at Our Trend Analysis

18 City-by-City Results

22 How Heat Affects Health

26 Tools and Programs for Adapting

to Climate Change

Heat in the Heartland60 Years of Warming in the Midwest


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2 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S

Executive Summary

Sweltering summer heat is not only uncomortable

but can also be lethal. Heat is actually the biggest

weather-related killer in the United States, claiming,

on average, more lives each year than oods, light-

ning, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined. High

temperatures can lead to dehydration, heat exhaus-

tion, and heatstroke, especially among vulnerable

populations. These include the elderly, children, andpeople with preexisting medical conditions such as

cardiovascular and respiratory disease, or other

chronic diseases such as diabetes.

he summer o 2011 was a cc. all bt igt tt ptd bvvg tpt, nd tt bk cd t t. sc

ticky, ty, nctbl t i pid t bc vn cn clit . Btt, id dy nt jt nctbl. ett kill. 1999 t 2003, ttl 3,442 dt

lting p t t t ptd(CDC 2006). and t g likly t b ltn t l tll. mdicl in vy in t yty cctiz tltd dt, ti icliying t ting t c (Bnd st 2002).

hig tpt cn ld t dydtin, ttin, nd ddly ttk. Vy t t

cn l ggvt iting dicl cnditin, c dibt, pity di, kidny di, nd tdi (B 2009; mtngl t l. 2007; snzt l. 1999). ubn idnt, t ldly, cildn,gicltl k, nd ppl it ipid ltnd liitd bility pticlly cptibl ttltd illn nd dt (B 2009; oNill ndebi 2009; CDC 2008). ai plltnt c znnd pticlt tt y l k in cnct itt, cbting it lt ct (B 2009).

Dng t i nt jt t cncn.1 s71 pcnt pndnt t mc 2012 pll vt in Gn By, wI, nd Gnd rpid, mI, blivd tt t pttn in ti v cngdin cnt y (mlln Gp 2012).

Tg iginl c, nd tt t t nd t v v indd bc cn, n vg, in t ntin tlnd v tlt i dcd. In t d, ny bby bliving in t midt v ldy cd t cngding ti liti.

w cd n t midt bc it nylg ppltin cnt nd i pjctd t n inc in t v t clit (oNill ndebi 2009; ml nd bldi 2004). wit it igly

vibl clit, t midt i l n t tnitiv gin n it c t n pn tciv t.

Heat waves have become more common over the

last six decades, on average, in the ive large midwestern

cities we studied. Scientists project that this trend

will worsen over the next century.

Thinkstock


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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 3

We drew on weather data rom the 1940s and 1950s to the present to determine how changes in summer heat have already aected

the more than 65 million people who live in the Midwest. We targeted fve large citiesChicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis, and

St. Louisto gain a deeper understanding o the local eects o extreme heat, which can inorm eorts to minimize health risks.

Cincinnati

Chicago

Minneapolis

Detroit

St. Louis

btt ndtnd t tnd c tigin, nlyzd t in v j bn nd v nby ll citi: Cicg nd Pi, IL;Cincinnti nd ld, oh; Dtit, mI; Lingtn,KY; minnpli nd rct, mN; nd st. Li

nd Clbi, mo. w ind cng in ti t pttn ing intin dtingbck t t 1940 nd 1950, n cplt digitlt cd bc vilbl in t citi.

w cd n t yt clld i :vt bdi i tt dn t t nd .w pld t t nb dy it dngly t i , ic linkd tn lt ik, ll cl, dy i cngd v t lt 60 y.

w l ind vg dyti nd nigtti tpt nd idity lvl itin t

t yt v cngd v ti. w did bc ig tpt, lck cling li t nigt,nd ig idity ll cntibt t tltd illn(Pd t l. 2005; wl 2002).

w id nt nly t ndtnd t cngd in t midt, bt l t dligt n t iptnc citylvl t t iniiz t lt ik t clit cng.

Ky nding c incld:

Dangerouslyhotsummerdaysarebecoming cn c t midt. Ti tndp ging ik pblic lt nd llbing.

Techaracteristicsofthisdangerousweather l cnging. ht i v bctt nd id ding nigtti , pl. In citi, nigtti tpt itin typ i c 4 t 5 v i dcd.

Tenumberofhot,humiddayshasincreased,n vg, c t midt inc t 1940

nd 1950, il t, dy dy v bctt. Heatwaveslastingthreedaysorlongerhavealso

bc cn v t lt i dcd.

Photos: (Chicago) iStockphoto.com/Veni; (Detroit) iStockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr; (Minneapolis) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (St. Louis) iStockphoto.com/Kubrak78; (Cincinnati) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957

Map: NOAA ( 2012 Google; 2012 Cnes/Spot Image; 2012 TerraMetrics)


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Dangerously hot summer days are becoming more common, and summer nights hotter and more humid, across the Midwest,

on average. These trends pose growing risks to public health and well-being. (Above let: Minneapolis. Above right: Chicago.)

dy st. Li bt dng

tdy t v c y tn it did in t1940, pl. Relieffromheatishardertond.Allthecities

tdid n v cl, dy dy in t.

Whileurbanheatislandeectsplayaroleinhigheri tpt in lg idtn citi, llciti cdd iil inc in t nb t dy. Ti ggt tt ig tpt nt d lly t c ct.

implctns ou nns

T nding ggt vl iplictin pbliclt. T t typ tt v bc cn in t midtvy t, id i , ndt, dy i citd it tltdilln nd dt (Ntinl wt svic 2005;sidn nd Klktin 2004; ebi t l. 2004). Vyt, id i inc t ik yptilvtd bdy tptil t, dy i i t ik dydtin (Vn t l. 2010;eptin nd mn 2006; mii, mlci, ndCnd 1987).

ht v, ic l bcing c

n, t ct n lt (sidn nd Klktin 2010). riing vnigt tpt lpbltic, bc lck nigtti li inct ik tltd cplictin (Pd tl. 2005).

w cnnt ign t ptntil cnqnc clit cng, inclding t ik ddly t v.w t invt in pvntiv t ptctpblic lt nd v liv ding t t vnt.a ti pt , t citi tdid ldytking tp t iniiz t lt ct dng t t. hv, ny t citi till

lly nppd.w t l tk ggiv ctin t dc ttpping iin t bning il l. I d nt, tpt ill likly cntin t i(Ntinl rc Cncil 2011), nd ill vt cp it t ct t t n dilyliv, lt, nd cny dcd t c.

w nd ttgi t bt bild clitilintcniti nd dc t glbl ing iintt diving clit cng. o lt nd llbingnd t cildndpnd n it.

Without aggressive action to reduce global warming emissions, the world our children live in will most likely be

much hotter.

iStockphoto.com/jimkruger Sam Spade

iStockphot o.com/Mari iStockphot o.com/STEFANOLUNARDI

iStockphoto.com/ChristopherBernard


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Introduction

In summer 2010, large portions o western Russia, including Moscow,

endured an intense heat wave thatalong with wildfres that blanketed

the city with toxic smogkilled tens o thousands o people nationwide.Continued emissions o heat-trapping gases are projected to make heat

waves more likely in the uture. Above, people wear ace masks to protect

their lungs while visiting Moscows Red Square.

he summer o 2011 was a cc. It t ttt inct in Dt Bl t 1930,it 42 tt pting bvnl t

pt, nd tt bking cd tt (Ntinl Clitic Dt Cnt 2011).

sc t int jt nctbl. et tkill. 1999 t 2003, 3,442 dt lting

p t t t ptd (CDC 2006).ht v in t cnt pt v tck t midt d. pl, t v in st. Li ndKn City, mo, in Jly 1980 cd 57 pcntnd 64 pcnt inc in dt, pctivly (Jnt l. 1982). a t v in milk tt y cntibtd t 91 dt (wikpt t l. 2002).

on t t in u.s. t v ccdin Jly 1995, n cdtting tpt gippdCicg. m tn 700 dt in t city vntlly ttibtd t tt t t vnt (Plcki tl. 2001). hpitl cd 1,072 diin tnvgtly dydtin, ttk, nd ttin (snz t l. 1999).2

sc tgdy ccd gin n n vn lg clin t 2003, n t v nd lting ild in wtn ep killd ny 70,000 ppl (rbin t l. 2008). ant tt vnt in 2010 ld t n titd 55,000 dtc ri (Bipd t l. 2011).

sc tgdi cld bc cn tplnt , pcilly i ttpping iin c c vicl, p plnt, nd dttin cntin t clib. Clit dl pjcttt gin ill intn, qnt,

nd lnglting t t vnt in t cndl ti cnty (oNill nd ebi 2009; ml ndbldi 2004).

ncv tnd tt y ldy b ccing, invtigtd t t nb dnglyt dy ll cl, dy dy cngd v ti in v lg idtn citind v ll citi v t pt i dcd. wcd n t midt bc it nj ppltin cnt, nd i pjctd t c

t v t clit (oNill nd ebi 2009;ml nd bldi 2004).

Ti pt pnt t lt iginl c. w did nt dign tdy t dtint t tnd nd t ncdclit cng. hv, t lt t 10 citi cn in t t cp it t lt ik t clit cng. d tt nd, l ind t t v lg idtn citi ldyding t pp dng t vnt.

Heat waves in the recent past

have struck the Midwest hard. Such

weather isnt just uncomortable

extreme heat kills.

JohnRichter


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Wt is Wete?Weather is the short-term state o the lower atmo-

sphere, or tropospherethe air mass that surrounds

us. Weather includes day-to-day temperature, precipi-

tation, wind, and cloud cover. Climate, in contrast, reers

to average atmospheric conditions over decades or

longer (NASA 2005).

Wt is het Wve?The National Weather Service usually deines heat

waves as periods o abnormally and uncomortably

hot and unusually humid weather (National Weather

Service 2009a).The weather service issues heat advisories and ex-

cessive heat warnings when predicting unusual periods

o hot weather.

However, there is no universal deinition or heat

wave: it typically relects not only weather patterns but

also a populations ability to cope with a temperature

spike. What people might call a heat wave in New Eng-

land, or instance, probably would not qualiy as such

in sizzling southern Arizona.

Wt is te het inex?The heat index describes how hot it really eels, given

relative humidity as well as air temperature. I the air

temperature is 96F and the relative humidity is 65 per-

cent, the heat index is an oppressive 121F (Figure 1)

(National Weather Service 2012a).

Relative humidity is the amount o water vapor in

the air at a certain temperature, compared with how

much the air could hold at that temperature (National

Weather Service 2009b). When humidity is very high,

perspiration does not evaporate, and the human body

gets little, i any, relie rom the heat (Hajat, OConnor,

and Kosatsky 2010).

Weather 101

Wt is dew Pnt Tempetue?Dew point is a measure o atmospheric moisture:

a higher dew point indicates that more moisture ispresent in the air. The dew point temperature is the

level to which air must cool to become saturated with

moisture, at which point it condenses on suraces

(National Weather Service 2009). Dew point tempera-

ture is amiliar to anyone who has seen temperatures

all overnight to the point where dew orms on leaves

and car windows.

Wt is n a Mss?An air mass is a large volume o airusually hundreds

to thousands o miles acrosswith similar tempera-

ture and humidity levels throughout. Air masses

tend to take on the characteristics o the areas where

they orm. However, their properties can change as

they move across areas with dierent surace condi-

tions (Figure 2, p. 8) (National Weather Service 2010;

Ritter 2010).

For example, a moist tropical air mass is hotter and

more humid in the southeastern United States, nearer

its source region, than it is in the northeastern United

States (see box, p. 8). A moist tropical air mass is simi-

larly warmer at all locations in July than it is in January

(Sheridan 2002). This report ocuses on air masses typ-ically associated with Midwest summer heat waves.

The heat index describes how hot it really eels,

given relative humidity and temperature. When humidity

is very high, perspiration does not evaporate and

the body gets little relie rom the heat.

JupiterImages


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The heat index

describes how

hot it eels, given

relative humidity

as well as air

temperature. When

humidity is very

high, perspiration

does not evaporate,

and the human

body gets little,

i any, relie rom

the heat. Hot

air masses have

become hotter and

more humid during

nighttime hours

over the last six

decades in the

Midwesta recipeor a rising heat

index.

igUrE 1. Te het inex

Airtemperature(F)

Relative humidity (%)

F 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

110 136

108 130 137

106 124 130 137

104 119 124 131 137

102 114 119 124 130 137

100 109 114 118 124 129 136

98 105 109 113 117 123 126 131

96 101 104 108 112 116 121 126 132

94 97 100 102 106 108 114 119 124 129 136

92 94 96 99 101 105 108 112 116 121 126 131

90 91 93 95 97 100 103 105 109 113 117 122 127 132

88 88 89 91 93 95 98 100 103 106 110 113 117 121

86 85 87 88 89 91 93 95 97 100 102 105 108 112

84 83 84 85 86 88 89 90 92 94 96 98 100 103

82 81 82 83 84 84 85 86 88 89 90 91 93 95

80 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 84 84 85 86 86 87

The inamous

Chicago heat

wave o July 1995,

which blanketed

the city in swelter-

ing smog, led to

more than 700

deaths and 1,072hospital admissions.

Scien-tists project

that such lethal heat

waves will become

more common

unless we take

strong immediate

steps to reduce our

global warming

emissions.

GaryBraasch


10/40


d PlThis type o air mass, with cold and dry air, usually

maintains the lowest temperatures and humidity along

with clear skies. Dry polar air masses usually advance

into the Midwest rom northern regions such as Canada,

on a north, northwest, or northeast wind.

d MeteThis type o air mass usually has milder temperatures than

dry polar yet is still dry (low humidity). Dry moderate

air can occur when another type o air mass traverses

dry land.

Types o Air Masses

d TpclThis type o air mass is associated with the hottest yet

very dry conditions, with very clear skies. It is common

in large continental areas lacking water bodies.

Dry tropical air masses can advance into the

Midwest rom desert regions in the U.S. Southwest

and Mexico, or beneath high-pressure weather systems.

O all the types o air masses cited here, dry tropical

days occur least requently in the Midwest.

Mst PlTypical conditions are cloudy, humid, and cool, some-

times with light precipitation. Moist polar air is presentwhen an air mass has recently moved in rom a cool

ocean or large lake. In the Midwest, dry polar air

lowing over the Great Lakes can pick up moisture and

turn into a moist polar air mass.

Mst MeteThis type o air mass is considerably warmer and more

humid than moist polar. Conditions tend to be cloudy

and overcast, with light precipitation. It can occur

when warm air meets cool air just north o a warm

ront, creating moderate conditions.

Mst TpclThis is the warmest and most humid type o air mass,

and thus creates the most discomort. In the Midwest,

it is commonly transported rom the tropical Atlantic

and the Gul o Mexico, or occurs ater a warm ront

passes.

Mst Tpcl+The most oppressive subset o moist tropical air, this

air mass is most oten associated with heat-related

mortality. It is present when both morning and ater-noon temperatures are above the mean on a moist

tropical day.An air mass is a vast body o air overhead thatdefnes the weather around us. It can extend or

hundreds or thousands o miles, and has similar

temperature and humidity properties throughout.

The arrows indicate common movements o air

masses rom their source regions. The moist tropical

(MT) and dry tropical (DT) air masses are most

associated with increased health risks.

MPdP

MP

dTMT

MT

igUrE 2. Suce rens n Mvements a Msses

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How We Analyzed Summer WeatherTrends in the Midwest

Much can change in 60 years, including weather. We analyzed some 60 year

o data on summer weather in fve large midwestern cities: Chicago, Cincin

Detroit, Minneapolis, and St. Louis. We ound that the types o hot weather

undermine human health (dry tropical and moist tropical+) have become m

common, on average. Meanwhile cool, dry summer days (dry polar), which

oten bring rereshing relie rom summer heat, are becoming less common

o uNDersaND ChaNGes IN

t pttn nd t igt b divingt cng, cd n t yt knn i ( wt

101). By vlting i intd iplytpt, bl t pvid dtild

pict t cng in t pttn tt vctlly bn pincd by midtn v tlt 60 y.

w nlyzd 60 y dt n i in v lg idtn citi: Cicg, Cincinnti,Dtit, minnpli, nd st. Li. w c tciti t pnt bt t ntn nd tnmidt, nd t ct piity t t Gt Lk ll cntinntl lctin.

w l nlyzd intin n i in vll citi itin 150 il t lg citi, tdtin t bn t ilnd ct plying ignicnt l in ny tpt tnd. Tll citi inclddPi, IL (pid it Cicg),Lingtn, KY (Cincinnti), ld, oh (Dtit),rct, mN (minnpli), nd Clbi, mo(st. Li).3 Bc i cv ndd vntnd q il, c ll lcl t iil t tt it lg cntpt.4

w btind ti intin t NtinlClitic Dt Cnt, cplt digitl cdbgin t dint y dint citi: 1948 Cicg, 1948 Cincinnti, 1959 Dtit, 1945 minnpli, nd 1946 st. Li. w nlyzd

t cd tg 2011. Incpting ll t vibl, d llknn t dl, t ptilynptic clictin ssC, t cliy c dyt int n i typ i (Gn tl. 2011; sidn nd Dlny 2003; sidn 2002).6

w tn cd nlyi n t typ i: vy t nd id (n t bt ittpicl knn it tpicl+), t nd dy (dytpicl), nd cl nd dy (dy pl). T dy tpicl nd it tpicl+ i t iptnt n lt, ty linkd t gt ik

Dry tropical (hot and dry)

and moist tropical+ (very hot

and humid) air masses

are linked to a greater risk

o heat-related deaths.

wit c n t t, liitd tdy pid t Jn, Jly, nd agt. w nlyzddt n tnn nd nigtti i nd d pinttpt, i p, cld cv, nd indvlcity btind nd cdd t n ipt tttin p city.5 pt d py tt dyti nd nigtti p.

EnvironmentalProtectionAgency/JohnH

.White


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Urban centers tend to be hotter than surrounding areas.

Heat absorption by paved suraces, a lack o cooling vegetation,

and intense heat-emitting activities, such as transportation

and industrial processes, combine to produce the urban heat

island eect.

To determine whether heat trends simply reected urban heat island eects, we collected data on fve

small cities at least 10 miles rom the fve larger cities. Although there were some dierences between

large and small cities, several common patterns emerged, suggesting a contribution rom regional

climate change, not simply urban heat island eects.

tltd dt (Ntinl wt svic 2005;ebi t l. 2004; sidn nd Klktin 2004).

T qncy givn typ i t nb dy tt it i pntvi in c city y t y. eining t 60y cd lld t tnd v ti.

w l ntd t dtin i ttc dngly t dy v bc l cn.rc n tt n vl dy ppiv t ct n lt (Klktin t l.2011). stdi v l linkd t lt t cnctiv dy lvtd tpt nd idity tgt tlity (B nd st 2002).

vlt t t dng t v, invtigtd t tdylng n vy

t, id (it tpicl+) nd t, dy (dytpicl) i v bc cn.7(w did nt nlyz tdylng t v t ll citi bc ti nd ccntint.)

inlly, invtigtd t c typ i bc id, pntd by d pint tpt, in c city, t gin n tnd in ltiv idity. spciclly, lkd t t 3:00 .. nd 3:00 p.. i tptnd d pint tpt (pnting dyti ndnigtti vl) c typ i ding c dy n cd.

accuntn Ubn het isln EfectsIn l , t nd t vgttin pvid dnd lp cl t i plnt l t vp. In

bn , cling vgttin i tn in t pply. ll bilding, d, nd t pvd c inciti l bb nd tin t tn d t tpn pc nd plnt li l lcl, ndciti l tt tppd t lly tgtt nigt (envinntl Ptctin agncy 2012).

a city bzzing n ctivitic tnpttin, indtil pc, nd t ptin n pplincit t (envinntl Ptctin agncy 2012b). ubn citct cnl innc ind nd ngy bptin. Tdinc in nigtti tpt btn lgcity nd it nding cn t b c 21.6 (ok 1988). w pid c lg city it nby ll cityt lp ditingi btn bn t ilnd ctnd t c tnd in tpt nd idity.

RasidelSlika

Thinkstock


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w nd tt i lg city d ing tndtt nt ppnt in t ll city, tt tnd likly lgly d t bn t ilnd ct. Ibt t lg nd t ll city cdd iiling tnd, it likly nt d piily t t

ct.8

Evlutn dtme n Nttme Tensmny tdi tt invtigt n pndt t dt jt n ti ding tdy (andn nd Bll 2009; Dvi t l. 2003b).hv, bn t ilnd ct tngt tnigt (mcCty t l. 2010; ok 1988). and igvnigt tpt citd it tltdilln nd dt (oNill nd ebi 2009; Pdt l. 2005).

w t lkd t i tpt nd d

pint tpt t 3:00 .. nd 3:00 p.. ctyp i . ot u.s. cintit v l d tt

in the summer o 2011, the UnitedStates was hit hard with the kind ostiling heat wave that a changing

climate can bring (Figure 3).

Forty-twostatesreportedabove-

average summer temperatures,

and our states broke records or

high temperatures (National

Climatic Data Center 2011).

Heatanddroughtacrossthe

Southwest and the southern

plains caused 95 deaths and

some $12 billion in losses to

crops and livestock (National

Climatic Data Center 2012). DuringaheatwaveinJuly,the

National Weather Service issued

heat advisories and warnings

aecting some 140 million

Americans and nearly 1 million

square miles, rom the central

United States to the East Coast

(National Climatic Data Center

2011).

Spotlight on 2011

The summer o 2011 brought record-breaking heat to much o the country.

On this day in July, the heat index orecast topped 105F or much o the

Midwest. In the cities we investigated, potentially dangerous hot summer

days have become more common over the past six decades, on average.

igUrE 3. Smple het inex ecst Jul 21, 2011

ppc t vlt link btn t tptnd tlity (Dvi t l. 2003; Ci t l. 2002).

scintit v l d tt ppc t tdy linkbtn t nd lt in K, Itly, Cnd, ndCin (Bccini t l. 2011; L t l. 2010; n t l.

2004; sidn nd Klktin 2004). pl, ntdy d tpt nt t 5:00 .. nd5:00 p.. t nlyz t ltinip btn tt nd blnc pn cll in nt (Dlnynd sidn 2006).

We included temperature

data collected at 3:00 a.m.

because high overnight

temperatures are associated with

heat-related illness and death.

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

NOAA


14/40


Findings: The Midwest Is Heating Up

our INVesIGaIoN uNCoVereDbl inc in dngly tt in t midt. Ppl living int gin v pincd t t

cng ding ti liti.spciclly, nd tt t i citd

it l lt ctdy tpicl nd ittpicl+v bc cn in t mid

t v t lt i dcd, n vg. ht i lting t dy lng v l bc cn, n vg. mnil cl, dy dy (dy pl) v bc l cn.

T cctitic t typ t vl cngd. wit cptin, t i v bc bt tt nd id,pticlly t nigt. ovnigt tpt ndbt typ t i pcilly t, dy iv in in ny citi. pl, n dytpicl i i pnt in st. Li, tptt 3:00 .. 4.4 ig tdy tn 66 y g.

D pint tpt nd ti ltividity v l incd ignicntly in t t citi. T vnigt t ind l n vidnc inc.

w nd dinc btn lg nd llciti, bt vl cn pttn gd ( bl).Ti tngly ggt tt t cng ncvdt ginl clit cng, nt iply bnt ilnd ct.

Cnes n Summe Wete Pttens

Very Hot, Humid Days Are Occurring More Often

nns Le CtesVy t, id i (it tpicl+) pp tb c cn tdy tn in t 1940. Cincinnti, Dtit, nd st. Li ignicnt incin t nb it tpicl+ dy c ,vn tg t t i in ncn. pl, st. Li n tic nyvy t, id dy (it tpicl+) it did in tlt 1940, n vg.

nns Smll Ctes

T nb dy c vy t, id(it tpicl+) t yt in ll v llciti. T inc ttiticlly ignicnt int citi: Lingtn, Pi, nd ld. In Lingtn, pl, t nb it tpicl+ dy tn dbld, bt t ding typicl t t bginning t tdy pid t bt

v c in t t cnt dcd.

Very Hot, Dry Days Are Also BecomingMore Common

nns Le Ctes

Cng in t nb dy it t, dy (dytpicl) i t l cnitntc t v lg citi. Dy tpicl dy bc cn in Cicg, Dtit, nd minnpli,bt ti inc ttiticlly ignicnt nly inDtit. In st. Li, t qncy dy tpicldy cngd littl, il Cincinnti pincd

ligt dp.

nns Smll Ctes

T nb dy it t, dy t yt (dytpicl) d inc in t ll citi, btt tnd nt ni ttiticlly ignicnt.In ct, t qncy dy tpicl i in rct ctlly dclind t ignicnt t. hv,vll tnd ggt it di t idi in t ll citiiil t t nd in t lg citi.

Heat Waves Are Occurring More Often

Tdylng ttc t i lccing c tn. st. Li, pl,cdd n vg t tdylng n it tpicl+ nd dy tpicl i nnlly in t 1940. Tt nb inc tndbld, t n vg vn c t v cy tdy.


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our analysis allows us to see changes in each variable over time, giving us a trend line, or slope. In

our study, the y-axis represents either the number o days each summer that an air mass occurs,

or the temperature within that type o air mass. The x-axis represents time, in years. The slope o the

line can tell us how much the number o days or temperature is changing over time. By multiplying

the slope by the total number o years, we end up with a value that signiies the change or the entire

period.

A common statistical measure known as the p-value indicates whether a trend is statistically

signiicant. A p-value o less than 0.05 is usually considered statistically signiicant. Such a p-value

indicates that there is less than a 5 percent likelihood that a trend is due to chanceand thereore that

there is a 95 percent likelihood that the trend relects the actor we are investigating (Ambaum 2010).

Trends with p-values rom 0.05 to 0.1 are not considered statistically signiicant. However, such

p-values indicate that there is less than a 10 percent chance that a reported trend is random, so we

consider such trends important.Figure 4 depicts an example rom our indings: the number o days each summer that a moist

tropical+ air mass was present over St. Louis rom 1946 to 2011. The strong positive slope indicates an

overall increase in the number o such daysabout nine over the study period. With a p-value o

0.000 (less than 0.05), this increase is statistically signiicant.9 The ull results or all 10 cities can be

ound in the online technical appendix.

A Closer Look at Our Trend Analysis

p=0.000

igUrE 4. equenc Mst Tpcl+ a Msses n St. Lus m 1946 t 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Airmassfrequency(daysper

summer)

1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

Year

St. Louis experienced an average o three annual

three-day-or-longer runs o dangerously hot air masses

in the 1940s. That number has more than doubled,

to an average o seven such heat waves today.

iStockphoto.com/Kubrak78


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Our investigation uncovered

measurable increases in dangerously

hot weather in the Midwest.

People living in the region have

experienced these weather changes

during their lietimes.

The Number of Cool Summer Days Is Declining

nns Le CtesT incidnc cl, dy (dy pl) i ll v ti in ll v lg citi. and in vy citycpt Cincinnti, tt dc ttiticllyignicnt. In Cicg, intnc, t nb dy pl dy c y dppd by n dy vydcd, 40 pcnt vll dp in t nb c dy nnlly 1948 t tdy. and t ylyqncy dy pl dy in Dtit dppd tn t c dcd, t city n vg 10.5 cl, dy dy c tn in 1959. wit

Cool, dry summer air masses have become less requent in both small and large

cities in the Midwest. In Toledo, home o the Mud Hens, a Detroit Tigers arm team,

the number o days with such weather declined rom about 12 per typical summer

in the 1940s and 1950s to about three in 2010. These cooler days used to be a

welcome and rereshing respite rom summer heat.

cl dy n t clnd, idntpinc l li t t.

nns Smll Ctes

Cl, dy (dy pl) i bc lcn in ll t ll citi cpt rct. Inld, t nb dy pl dy dclind bt 12 p typicl in t 1940 nd 1950t bt t in 2010.

Cnes n ovent Tempetue,humt, n het inex

Overnight Temperatures Are Rising

nns Le Ctesovnigt (3:00 ..) tpt d c tng tnd tn tnn (3:00 p..) tpt. Int lg citi, tnn tpt citdit givn typ i did nt i c vti, nd cld ligtly. ovnigt tpt, in cntt, incd ntbly.

In Dtit nd st. Li, dy pl, dy tpicl, ndit tpicl+ i ll d, nd t inc ttiticlly ignicnt. In t vciti, t ldy vy t nd id it tpicl+

CoreySeeman


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i bc ignicntly . T nly cptin ccd in Cincinnti, , n tt ncl, tpt ll t i cngdlittl, in bt t tnn nd vnigt.

s citi kd tnd in vnigt t

pt. pl, in Dtit, vg vnigttpt n t, dy (dy tpicl) dy d4.3 v 52y pid. and Dtit nt niltd pl. In st. Li, vg vnigt dytpicl tpt bt 4.4.

ovnigt inc it tpicl+ i t ll bt till ntbl, givn tt ti typ t ldy t t vnigt tpt. ec city cpt Cincinnti d ttiticllyignicnt inc in it tpicl+ vnigt tpt: 1.7 in Cicg, 2.1 in Dtit, 1.6 inminnpli, nd 2.1 in st. Li.

wt , dinc btn dyti ndnigtti tpt pp t b ning in tciti. Ti tnd y b iptnt in ndtndingt ipct ig t n n lt, bt nnd in t t, lck nigtti t li bn linkd t inc in tltd illn (oNillnd ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).

nns Smll Ctesa in t lg citi, nigtti i in t llciti v gnlly bc tt v ti. ovll,vy t nd id (it tpicl+), t nd dy (dytpicl), nd cl nd dy (dy pl) i in t

ll citi d ntbly in t nigtti, bt ntin t tnn.

In Clbi, vnigt tpt tcl dy pl nd t tt dy tpicl i .In Lingtn, Pi, nd ld, vnigt tpt incd ll t i . s tinc izbl. In Clbi, t ipt i in n gicltl gin ll tid t city,vg vnigt tpt ding dy tpiclt 3.7 v 66 y.

Nighttime Dew Point Temperatures Are Rising

nns Le Ctes

ovnigt d pint tpt t i tndd t inc v ti. pl, Dtit ndminnpli bt n inc in vnigt dpint tpt it tpicl+ i . Inst. Li, vnigt d pint tpt dytpicl t by tn 7. Tt cngcntibtd t ntbl i in vnigt ltividity ding c t, 63 t 71 pcntn vg.

a it tpt tnd, tnn d pinttpt did nt cng ignicntly v ti.T cptin n inc in t d pinttpt dy tpicl t in st. Li,nd dc in t d pint tpt dy

tpicl t in Dtit.I t it cntnt dy tpicl i

inc, y c t tld int t ittpicl ctgy. Ti cn cc i i, iccn ld t vp, bc cn.10

I dy tpicl i bcing it, iing d pint tpt ggt, tn ittpicl+ dy ld bc cn, t tpn dy tpicl dy. Tt y plin yt qncy it tpicl+ i i iing pidly tn tt t typ i ,nd y dy tpicl i bcing ligtly

l cn.

nns Smll Ctes

a in lg citi, t it cntnt nigtti i in ll citi gnlly incd inc t1940 nd 1950. In ld, vnigt d pint tpt dy tpicl i bt 5 v gly 55y pid, il vnigt i tpt by bt 3.8. T cng cpnd tn inc in vnigt ltiv idity 3.5 pcnt in t typiclly dy i .

Very hot, humid weather increases the risk o hyperthermia

elevated body temperaturewhich can result in disability or death.

When humidity is very high, body sweat does not evaporate, and

people obtain little or no relie rom the heat. In St. Louis, or

example (shown above at the citys Gateway bus and train station),

overnight relative humidity under dry tropical air masses rose rom

63 percent to 71 percent rom 1946 to today, reducing nighttime

relie rom extreme heat.

RebeccaKoenig


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The Heat Index Also Risespt nd ltiv idity bt ct tt ind, t t i ctlly l. invtigt ti , vltd cng int vnigt t indic Cicg nd st. Li n

vy t, id (it tpicl+) nd t, dy (dytpicl) dy.

In Cicg, t vg t ind 2.6 nit tpicl+ dy, nd 0.1 n dy tpicl dy.In st. Li, t vg t ind 3.8 n ittpicl+ dy, nd 4.4 n dy tpicl dy.

T izbl inc cld ct ppl lt.In st. Li, t n vnigt t ind vgn 80 bt typ t i , dinglittl t li. scintit v linkd bt ig nigtti tpt nd ig ltiv idity t inc in tltd illn nd dt (oNill nd

ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).

Wt te utue Cul BnI glbl ing iin cntin t ti cntpc, t midt cld c vn tt .11an li uCs pt pjctd ny dy ittpt bv 90 nd 100 t citi in tdy cld c nd ti cni (uCs 2009). pl, Cicg cld tn 70 dy ittpt bv 90 c y td t nd

ti cnty, n vg (ig 5). und liin cni, nd t dt glblnd ginl ing, t nb c dy lddp by l.

scintit l pct t nb dngly t

dy v 100 in Cicg t inc dticllynd t igiin cni, pdcing nt c dy. Ty l pjct vg tpt t i tn 3 v t nt vl dcd, nd by n tdiny 13 td tnd t cnty. und liin cni,tt inc ld dp by l.

all t citi in tdy cn pct t t nb t dy c y i v t cing cnty. pl, st. Li ill c tn 100 dyc y bv 90 by t nd t cnty nd igiin cni, ccding t t uCs

pt. Ti nb dp t ligtly tn 60dy nd liin cniigligtingt iptnc t cic k.

ot dng t ggt iil t t midt. pl, t viil t tt in ep in 2003, ic clidtnd liv, cld cc vy t y int midt by t nd cnty nd igiin cni (usGCrP 2009).12

A previous UCS analysis considered two possible utures: one with ewer heat-trapping

emissions, and one with more. Under a high-emissions scenario, midwestern cities such

as Chicago will ace many more summer days above 90F. The number o such days is also

projected to rise across the region under a lower-emissions scenario, but less markedly

(Union o Concerned Scientists 2009a).

igUrE 5. a utue wt Me ds bve 90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

020102039 20402069 2070209919611990

Daysperyearover90F

Days over 100F

19611990 20702099


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The Impact o Dangerous SummerWeather on Health

Heat poses more risk or the elderly and the immobile, especially i they already have diabetes, respiratory disease, kidney

disease, or heart disease. Many elderly people try to endure heat waves in unsae conditions without ully understanding theirdangers. As the U.S. population ages, heat-related illnesses and deaths are expected to become more prevalent. Extreme heat

also poses a particular danger to athletes and outdoor workers, who may disregard warnings about heat-related illness.

hIGh emPeraures aND hu-idity lvl p i tt t pbliclt. Vy t, id t inct ik yptilvtd bdy

tptnd t, dy t i t ik dydtin (Vn t l. 2010; eptin nd mn2006; mii, mlci, nd Cnd 1987). Tipct t n ppl llbing dpnd n ti

p t ig tpt plngd pid intn t, ti ndlying lt, nd ti cnic nd cil vlnbility, ll cti gin invtd in t lp idntcp it t.

s gp pcilly vlnbl t t dng t t. ht i pticl zd ppl pyiclly ctiv, inclding bt ind k it inil cc t cling yt nd tdk (hnn t l. 2011). Ppl ply tdpt l t ik n t tpt clib.

ht t i c likly t cc in tivtdnd lit tlt digd t ning t tinnd cpt (Vn t l. 2012).

T ldly l t gt ik tltdlt cplictin (B, Dinici, nd st2005; Diz t l. 2002). old individl t igik ptly bc t t cn ggvt itingdicl cnditin c dibt, pity di,

kidny di, nd t di (mtngl t l.2007; snz t l. 1999).

T u.s. idnt v g 65 i clibing, gly 13 pcnt tdy t pdictd 20 pcnt by 2030. a t ppltin g, cn pct tltd illn nd vn dt (oNillnd ebi 2009). on tdy tlity t vin st. Li t 1930 tg t 1960 ndtt ppl gd 40 t 80 d t gtt ik dying in 1936 t v. Ding 1966 t v,

iStockphoto.com/agentry iStockphoto.c

C O N T I N U E D O N P . 2 0


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City-by-CityResults

Cc,iL

19482011(63 years)

dett,Mi

19592011(52 years)

Mnnepls,MN

19452011(66 years)

St. Lus,Mo

19462011

(65 years)

Cncnnt,oh

19482011

(63 years)

d a i Ly S U M M E r W E a T h E r T r E N d S

Very hot, humid days and hot, dry days are

both dangerous to human health, while cool, dry daysbring relie rom the summer heat and humidity.

Very Hot,

Humid Days

Hot,

Dry Days

Cool,

Dry Days

N i g h T T i M E S U

High nighttime tem

bring no relie romhe

Temperature and Humidity in Very Hot, Humid Nig

Temperature Dew

In this chart we identifed statistically signifcant values at*p


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a T h E r T r E N d S

igh relative humidity

ng people at risk ors and death.

perature and Humidity Changesin Hot, Dry Nights

ThrEE-dayhEaT WaVE TrEN dS

Three consecutive days o highheat and humidity can increaseheat-related illness and death.

Average Increase in Heat Waves

Harmul to Human Healthmperature Dew Point

cese2.6

incese2.8

cese*4.3

incese1

ecese0.8

decese1.4

cese*4.4

incese*7.7

cese0.6

decese1.1

incese1 pe e

incese2 pe e

incese1 pe e

incese*4 pe e

> 3

W h a T T h E U T U r E M i g h T L o o K L i K E

Assuming current carbon emissions trends continue(equivalent to the higher-emissions scenario), the Midwest will

likely ace scorching summer days with temperatures thatsoar above 90Fand even 100Flate in this century.

I carbon emissions are signicantly curtailed (lower-emissions

scenario), ar ewer summer days will be extremely hot.

The data or this section were compiled rom other sources. This reports originalresearch does not include projections o potential uture climate changes.

n 1 n Cuent n LweEmssns Scen n heEmssns Scen

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

020102039 20402069 2070209919611990

Daysperyearover90F

Days over 100F

19611990 20702099


22/40


23/40


Clnt 2010). hv, c tn itpt nd ltiv idity lvl, d pinttpt, n indict t t (B ndst 2002).

Heat-Related Mortalityevlting tltd tlity i cllnging. Tad hc Citt t Ntinl acitin mdicl ein cnd ttibting dtt ttk ypti i bdy tpt t lt 105 t t ti dt, t dcd p

n d cng in ntl tt nd d lvtdlvl liv nd cl nzy (Dng t l. 1997).

hv, dpit ti cndtin, intn pt cdivcl, pity, nd cbvcl di t ndlying c dt vnn t n iptnt cntibting ct (Bnd st 2002). a c tdy lg btnt vnt nd dt y l cc, t cplicting clictin dt (mtin t l. 2011;andn nd Bll 2009; B nd st 2002).

I cnt t ttpping iin cntin, t Cnt Di Cntl (CDC) pdict

tt nnl tltd dt ill c 3,000 t5,000 by 2050 (CDC 2009). (Note: Te CDC basesthese projections on the A1FI scenario or heat-trappingemissions o the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)Ppl in t ntnt citi, nt cclitd t dtic inc in i tpt, vlnbl t t t (Ci 2002).Ppl living in tt glly ig ti tpt, nd t liv cl t tqt, lly btt bl t ittnd ig t(hjt nd Ktky 2010).

Heat-Related Illnesseshtltd illn cc lng pct, ltivly in t t ptntilly ddly ttk (ig 6). Ppl tltd illn nt bdy nl tpt cntl yt i nbl t ctivly glt it intnl tpt(Bc nd Kncl 2002).

ht cp, t tin, nd ttk t cnditin t likly t nd ppl t t gncy n tpt i. ht cp

cc n vy ting nd t intk pt tbdy lt blnc, cing cping t cl int lg, , nd bdn. ht tin cp ting, n, nd cnin, ltg iti ild tn ttk, nd i typiclly citdit c bdy tpt 98.6 t 104.altg t ypt cn b ling, ttin i nt ncily li ttning nl itpg (Glz 2005).

ht tin cn ti pg t ttk. m cnly, ttk c n ddnly,

Heat index Possible heat disorders for people in higher-risk groups

Exteme dne

130F or higher Heatstroke/sunstroke highly likely with continued exposure.

dne

105F to 130F Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion likely, and heatstroke

possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.

Exteme Cutn

90F to 105F Sunstroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion possible with

prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.

Cutn

80F to 90F Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.

Source: National Weather Service, online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/heat_wave.shtml.

igUrE 6. het dses

The heat index

describes how

hot it really eels,

given relativehumidity as well

as air temperature.

As the heat index

rises, so does the

risk o heat-related

illness and death.

The share o U.S. residents over

age 65 is climbing, rom roughly

13 percent today to a predicted

20 percent by 2030. As the

population ages, we can expect

more heat-related illnesses

and even deaths.


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When the air temperature climbs above

body temperature and humidity is high,

the bodys cooling mechanisms become

less eective. The resulting symptoms

include those shown here.

Head

Symptoms o heat exhaustion can

include headache, dizziness, irritability,atigue, and loss o coordination.

Hallmarks o heatstrokea medicalemergencyinclude marked changes

in mental status, such as conusion,delirium, irritability, loss o conscious-

ness, and seizures.

Mouth

Increased thirst, dry mouth, andother symptoms such as weakness

and nausea oten signal dehydrationa loss o water or salts because o heavy

sweating or inadequate uid intake.

I let untreated, dehydration canlead to serious health eects.

Heart

Your heart has to work

harder to keep your body

rom overheating whenoutside temperatures rise.

Tachycardia (rapid heartbeat)can occur with heat exhaus-

tion, and cardiac arrhythmias

(abnormal or irregular heartrhythms) can occur with heat-

stroke. Patients with a historyo cardiovascular disease and

high blood pressure are at

greater risk o hospitalizationduring heat waves.

Lungs

Asthma, chronic obstructive

pulmonary disease, and otherrespiratory diseases can worsen

when temperatures spike. Peoplewith pneumonia and inuenza

are also at greater risk o hospital-ization during a heat wave.

Kidneys

Heatstroke can leadto kidney ailure.

Liver

Heatstroke can injurethe liver.

Arms and Legs

Heat cramps can cause

painul muscle spasmsand cramping in the

arms, shoulders, andlegs.

Skin

Heat rashalso called

prickly heat, or miliariaoccurs when sweat ducts

become blocked. It is mostcommon in babies, and in

hot, humid environments.

Flushed, pale, or clammyskin and prouse sweating

can be signs o heatexhaustion.

Source: Becker and Steward 2011; Glazer 2005;Lugo-Amador, Rothenhaus, and Mouyer 2004;Semenza et al. 1999.

How Heat Afects Health

Illustration:AmandaWait&AnnieBissett/Nonproftdesign.com


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itt t ning ign t tin. Btn tt it tt, ttk i n gncy.at plngd p t t t, t bdycn cpltly tp ting. unbl t cl itltg ppitin, t bdy c tpt cn

clib bv 105. Bld p dp nd plpd p. witt gncy ttnt, ti dngly lvtd bdy tpt ld t nzy lnctin, gn dg, nd dt (stnill 1972).

ct bynd t dict pyicl ct igtpt cn inc t ik tltdilln. Nigtti tpt n c ct.wn tpt in ig int t nigt, pplv n li t dyti t nd tgt ik tltd illn nd dt (oNillnd ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).

ozn l inc t ik tltd lt

cplictin. ozn cbt lng di c t, nd cn c bting difclti vn inlty ppl (uCs 2011; It, D Ln, nd Lippn2005; Cdy t l. 1992). ozn plltin i pctd ti lng it tpt v c t unitdstt (Jcb nd winn 2009).

Clmte Cne n ht Weteavg u.s. tpt v ldy incd by2 v t pt 50 y cbn diid nd tttpping iin v ccltd in ttp. and ty pjctd t i nt7 t 11 by t nd ti cnty nd igcbniin cni, nd 4 t 6.5 nd liin cni. T inc likly t

ct t, cyt, nd pblic lt kdly(Kl, mlill, nd Ptn 2009).

ec n dcd inc t 1970 bn tttn t lt, it 2000 t 2010 t ttt n cd (andt 2010; Nasa 2010). In t 1950, cd

l tpt jt likly t cc cdig. Ding t lt 10 y, in cntt, t unitdstt pincd tic ny cd ig cd l. By 2050, cintit pjct tt cdig ill tnb cd l by 20 t 1 (mlt l. 2009).

md nd pjctd cng in tptbynd t vg pi t ct pblic lt dictly. Ntbly, vg glbl nigtti tpt v in pidly tn vg dytitpt (Gnv, Cyn, nd Icblli 2009;alnd t l. 2006). Tt n dlling cl

lly ding t nigt, nd ppl gt l li t t.ht v, t, bcing cn. ov

t pt dcd, t nb t t vnt incd bt in t unitd stt nd nd tld (IPCC 2012; IPCC 2007). accding t u.s.gvnnt pt, igidity t v vbc bt qnt nd intn in tlt 30 t 40 y (Kl, mlill, nd Ptn 2009).

In t y t c, n ntily n t gii likly t g in ny pt t ld. InCicg, intnc, vnt iil in gnitdt t ddly 1995 t v pjctd t ccvy t y, vn i dc cbn iin (ig 7 nd 8, p. 24). I d nt cb t

igUrE 7. SccnSummes Becmete Nm

I our heat-trapping emissions

continue to rise at current rates,

summers in the Midwest are

projected to become much hotter.

Under a high-emissions (A1FI)

scenario (right), average summertemperatures are projected to

rise by more than 3F over the

next several decades, and by

an extraordinary 14F toward

the end o this century. Under

a lower-emissions (B1) scenario

(let), that increase would be

halved. (For more inormation,

see www.ucsusa.org/mwclimate.)

2070

2099

2010

2039

F above average summer temperature (19611900)

Lower-Emissions Scenario Higher-Emissions Scenario


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19611990

20102029

20402059

20802099

20402059

20802099

Higher-Emissions Scenario

Historical Baseline

Lower-Emissions Scenario

Average for Both Higher-

and Lower-Emissions Scenarios

iin, c t vnt likly t tikgly t ti c y (hy t l. 2009).

T midt i nt t nly gin t ik. In t

Ntt, pl, i cntin n pt ig ttpping iin, Btn i pjctd tc tn 60 dy v 90 c y by tnd t cnty, nd tn 20 dy v 100.and, i cntin it ig cbn iin, nytn tt pctd t v tic ny dyc y bv 90 by t nd ti cnty tt nd t tntit cnty (Kl, mlill, ndPtn 2009).13

Clit cng y ldy b cting nypct t, inclding tpt nd pcipittin, nd cing inc in t tltd

vnt c dgt nd ild. s tdi

v ttd t dtct cng in t t tt cnitnt it lngt clit cng. Dtining t c nd ct pcic intnc t

t in n ging c. Nvtl, cintit pining y t link pcict vpticlly t tt bk llticdt lgcl clit cng.

scintit invtigting t 2003 epn tv, intnc, cncldd it ig cndnctt clit cng n ctiviti d dbldt ik n t t vnt tt gnitd(sttt, stn, nd alln 2004). siilly, t tv nd mc in Jly 2010, c ndtt t nly 20 pcnt cnc tt t tv ld v ccd itt clit cng

(rt nd C 2011).

igUrE 8. Suten Wete Cmes t illns

Source: UCS 2009a.

Scientists project that

Illinois will ace hotter

temperatures and less

summer rain undercontinued climate change.

The red outlines show the

kind o southern summers

Illinois could see during

this century under a

higher-emissions (A1FI)

scenario. Analysts expect

the state to ace hotter

summers even under

a lower-emissions (B1)

scenario, as the yellow

outlines illustrate.

Ozone pollutionwhich is expected to rise along

with temperatures over much o the United Statesincreases

the risk o heat-related health complications by exacerbating

lung diseases such as asthma and causing breathing

diiculties even in healthy people.


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Building Resilient Communities

Building resilience in the ace o extreme heat requires commitment and collaboration. For example, planners can reduce

the urban heat island eect by expanding green spaces such as parks and rootop gardens (Chicago, let). Ofcials can also

develop heat-response plans that include educating and checking on residents and setting up cooling centers, such as at

Detroits Farwell Recreation Center (center, during a 2010 heat wave). Residents can also take proactive steps, such as

drinking plenty o water, spending at least a ew hours a day in air conditioning, and avoiding strenuous activity.

aLarGe BoDY o sCIeNIIC eVI-dnc indict tt cbn ittd n ctiviti c bning il lnd ctting dn t i vy likly i

ing plnt tpt (IPCC 2007). a ti tdy, t dy nd t v v ldybc cn c t midt. In tt gin nd bynd, cniti t nd y t dpt

t t dng t cnditin.wil vl j citi, inclding Cicg,viplntd clit ctin pln gncypn pln t t, t ltt id i tillvy n t t cniti. a 2010 vy 70cniti c t cnty nd tt jt 30 dpg t pvnt tltd illn nd dt ding t v (oNill t l. 2010).14 mny tcniti citd lcl ldip diving tpg. Lck ind lcl ldip, lng it tg c, t likly n nycniti v ild t dvlp c pg.

altg cniti v bn l t dpt t,l tpn pln ctiv in dcing dt t v. at t 1995 Cicg t v, pl, t city dvlpd pln tt cbliv dcd tltd dt ding nt tv in 1999 (Lb nd mcGin 2008).

o c, cniti cn g nly t ptct ti idnt. ridnt t l cng tibvi t ty ding t t vnt, c by dinking plnty t, pnding t lt dy in i cnditining, nd viding dictnin, lclic bvg, nd tn ctivity(envinntl Ptctin agncy 2006). hv,c t pblic till il t cgniz t dng

t v, nd ny tik individl d nttk pctiny . ht ctin pln tt incld tc nd dctin (Lb ndmcGin 2008).

hw Cmmuntes Cn Ptect heltun Exteme hetT envinntl Ptctin agncy Excessive HeatEvents Guidebooktlin vl tp tt fcilcn tk t iniiz t lt ct c vnt(envinntl Ptctin agncy 2006). T tpincld: Communicatingthedangerofextremeheatby

ning lti pblic cc t intin nt ik nd pppit pn, tg bdct di, bit, nd tll pn lin

Establishingandfacilitatingaccesstoair-cnditind pblic lt

Photos (L to R): City o Chicago; Detroit Free Press/Andrew J. Jackson; iStockphoto.com/LSOphoto


28/40


ederal agencies and other organizations are providingresources and developing tools and programs to helpcommunities prepare or dangerous heat events.

eel inttves The White House Climate Change Adaptation Task

Force, composed o representatives rom more than 20

ederal agencies, is developing recommendations on

how the government can strengthen its programs to

better prepare the nation or the eects o climate

change (Whitehouse.gov 2012).

The CDCs National Environmental Health Tracking

Program collects data on the health eects o multiple

hazards, rom asthma to air pollution. The CDC recently

added a component that will allow users to ind inor-

mation on climate change and health, such as tempera-

ture, heat-related death, and heat vulnerability.15 The

CDCs Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative is also

helping state and city health departments prepare or

and respond to the health eects o climate change

(CDC 2012).

The NationalWeather Service has developed a Heat/

Health Watch Warning System to alert citizens to dan-

gerous heat events up to ive days in advance.16

TheNational Weather Service irst tested the system in Phila-

delphia, then expanded it to 30 cities, and now plans to

extend it to all cities with populations o 500,000 or

more (Kalkstein 2009; National Weather Service 2005).

TheEnvironmental ProtectionAgency released itsEx-

cessive Heat EventsGuidebookin 2006 with the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Federal

Emergency Management Agency, and the CDC. The

guidebook gives public health oicials inormation on

the impact o such events so they can assess local

health risks. The guidebook also oers a menu o steps

that oicials can include in programs to respond to suchevents.

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires

the ederal government to produce a National Climate

Assessmenta status report on climate change science

and its eectsevery our years. The report is based on

observations across the county, and inorms eorts to

mitigate and adapt to climate change (Globalchange.

gov2012).

Tools and Programs or Adapting to Climate Change

ote Ntnl, Stte, n Lcl inttves TheGeospatialEmergencyManagementSupportSystem,

developed by researchers, integrates maps, real-time

weather data, and other inormation to help policy

makers track the local eects o climate change and

identiy populations most vulnerable to them (Hough-

ton et al. 2012).

ThenonprofitICLEILocalGovernmentsforSustainability

has developed the Climate and Air Pollution Planning Assis-

tant, a tool to help local governments identiy opportuni-

ties or reducing global warming emissions (ICLEI 2012a).

TheClimateResilientCommunitiesProgram,alsodevel-

oped by ICLEILocal Governments or Sustainability, pro-

vides real-world examples, training and networking, and

technical guidance to help local governments enhance

their ability to cope with climate change, including heat

waves (ICLEI 2012b).

TheNationalAssociationofCountyandCityHealthOffi-

cials (NACCHO) works with local governments to address

the public health eects o climate change by improv-

ing coordination and communication. NACCHO is con-

ducting one-year demonstration projects in six U.S.

states, including communities in Illinois and Minnesota

(NACCHO 2012). TheAssociationofStateandTerritorialHealthOfficialshas

developed a Climate Change Collaborative to research,

develop, and compile promising practices, success stories,

and tools to help state and territorial health agencies

mitigate and prepare or climate change.

TheResourceInnovationGroup,affiliatedwiththeCenter

or Sustainable Communities at Willamette University,

has developed guidebooks or integrating planning or cli-

mate change into the work o county, regional, and tribal

public health agencies (Resource Innovation Group 2012).

The guidebooks include Public Health and Climate Change:

A Guide for Increasing the Capacity of Local Public HealthDepartments and Ready for Change: Preparing Public Health

Agencies for the Impacts of Climate Change

TheGeorgetownClimateCenteratGeorgetownUniver-

sity has created a clearinghouse or climate action and

adaptation plans rom communities across the country.

The clearinghouse, aimed at policy makers, public health

proessionals, and urban planners, eatures plans rom

Midwest states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois

(Georgetown Climate Center 2012).


29/40


As part o the St. Louis heat-response team, Mayor

Francis Slay went door to door with other city ofcials

during the heat wave o summer 2011, checking on

residents and oering resources to help them stay

cool.

Directlyassessingand,ifneeded,interveningonbl t t gtt ik, inclding l individl, ld ppl, nd t itknn dicl cnditin

Establishingsystemstoalertpublichealthocials

bt igik individl t in ditding n t t vnt, c lit tidnt nd tlpn tlin ty cn cll

wil ll cniti cn bnt t tl ndplnning inititiv, bn nigbd niqlycptibl t t t. ofcil, bn plnn,nd citct ld k pcil t t itigtiing tpt in t nigbd, c bypnding t nt vgttin in pblic pc,dpting tndd ctiv ng nd pvingtil, nd ling glbl ing iin (h

ln t l. 2006).Clit cng ct c city nd tt in niqy, nd plicy k t b lcl pttn (Gind t l. 2010). sccl tpnpln qi cllbtin ng ny gnci ndgniztin, citypcic citi n t ik t t nd td t c idnt t t ik,nd cnictin pln. Dvlping c cpniv pln ill qi t nd nding, bt ty vitl t pping t t tpt tc (Lb nd mcGin 2008).

hw Mwest Ctes aeTkn actn

Chicago

Action PlAns And ResouRces

Cicg dvlpd n et wt optinPln, ic t ofc egncy mngnt ndCnictin vi nnlly nd pdt ndd in cdintin it t gnci.17 T plncll ng ctin ding t t vnt,inclding: Opening24-hourcoolingcenters Conductingpolicechecksofseniorsandat-risk

individl Inspectinghigh-riskbuildings(i.e.,buildings

it n i cnditining) t n tt indnd vntiltin yt pting pply

otheR initiAtives

a pt t Kp Cl Illini cpign, t tt digntd tn 120 cilitiinclding26 in Cicg cling cnt. opn 8:30 .. t 5:00 p.. mndy tg idy, tciliti idnt cl, ctbl plc t tyn t dy.18

Chicago is a national leader in

climate change preparation and

mitigation. The citys Climate

Action Plan includes many steps

to save lives in a heat emergency.


WarrenNichols

Photo: (Chicago) iStockphoto.com/Veni


30/40


Cincinnati


Cincinnti d nt v n fcil t ctin pln,ltg t city tkn tp t dl it t

v: TeCincinnatiHealthDepartment(CHD)

nit dily t ct, i tlt, nd dignt t gnci.

TeCincinnatiDrugandPoisonInformationCnt l i pcil lt lt dingt t vnt.

Tecityopensrecreationcenterstoserveascling cnt ding pid civ t.

TeCHDandtheCDCstudiedtheriskfactors dt ding t v. T cnd tt ppl tking dictin nd ppl

it ntl illn pcilly vlnbl tt t (Ki t l. 2001). a lt, tChD pciclly tgtd t gp pcil tc t ding t v.

otheR initiAtives

oi d nt pibit pblic tiliti tning g lcticity n ty t l p c cling ding pid t t. hv,t tt d qi 30dy dly in tility dicnnctin, i dicl pinl cti tt tt tpld ndng n individl lt.19

Detroit


T city divid t n pln nd ctivitibtn t Dptnt hlt nd wlln

Ptin, t ofc hlnd scity nd egncy mngnt, nd t rctin Dptnt.T aicn rd C, t slvtin ay, ndcnity vlnt lp iplnt t pln. WhentheNationalWeatherServiceidentiesan

t t vnt, t lt dptnt ndt dvii nd cdint t pning ctin nd t cling cnt.

TehealthdepartmentsAllHazardPlan,egncy mngnt egncy optinPln, nd t rctin Dptnt ptcl pning cling cnt tk ct ding

t gnci. Localmediahelppublicizethecoolingcenters

nd t c cping it t vnt.

otheR initiAtives

T mtDtit Clit Jtic k c, cpd vlnt t cdic, cil vic, nd gvnnt ct, d in 2011 t in t ik tltd illn, nd tpvid c t tik ppltin. mt cntly,Dtit wking envinntl Jtic, in ptnip it Dtit hlnd scity nd t

ntiti, d t Dtit Clit actin Cllbtiv t bild pblic n clit cngnd it ct n idnt.20


Photos: (Cincinnati) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (Detroit) iStockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr


31/40


Minneapolis


minnpli li n t et wt ann it egncy optin Pln n t Ntinl

wt svic i t dviy t ning. TecitysHeatHealthWatchwebsitepostssuch

dvii nd ning.21 Minneapolisocialsconductdoor-to-doorwell

n cck ding c vnt, nd pt lit pblic icnditind bilding byppl d nt v i cnditining in ti.22 ofcil dvlping pln pt.

TelocalDepartmentofHealthandFamilysppt k clly it rglty svicnd egncy Ppdn nd t minntDptnt hlt t lp idnt pp

t t vnt.

otheR initiAtives

und tt l, pblic tiliti cnnt tn lcticity n t Ntinl wt svic idn civ t tc, t dviy, civ tning.23

T tt l dvlpd n et ht lKit tt incld ppltinbd p tt lcl cil cn t tgt tik ppltin.24

St. Louis


T city st. Li hlt Dptnt n et pt Pln.25a pt t pln, ni

ting bidity nd tlity, t villncpcd, nd t gniztinl cllbtin idntid.26

at t v in 1980, lcl fcil nd cnity gniztin d optin wt svivl (ows) t pvnt illn nd dt tt cld t.27 T ows nit tct nd il nd tlpn cll t ltb t ning nd dvii. T gpl pvid nd intll i cnditin dicllyndy individl.28

otheR initiAtivesT tt rdy in 3 pg lp idnt pp gncy vnt, inclding t v.29 T mii Dptnt hlt nd sni svic l cling cnt c t tt ding tt vnt.30

mii d nt pibit pblic tiliti tning g lcticity n ty t l pc cling ding pid t t.31hv, t tt d pvid gidnc t ldttnd it dicnnctin n king itnc ngy bill.32


All communities can beneit rom specially designed tools

and planning initiatives to deal with the heat. Urban neighborhoods,

however, are uniquely susceptible to extreme heat and special

eorts are needed to protect these residents.

Photos: (Minneapolis) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (St. Louis) iStockphoto.com/Kubrak78


32/40


exreme hea eVeNs BeCame intn nd cn in t mid

t v t pt i dcd. midtnv pincd t cng in tding ti liti. wil did nt dign tdy t dtin t c cng t n ctiviti, nding cnitnt it pjctd ing tnd.

a pvi uCs pt d tt t ik dngly t t in t midt i likly t g cntin t l ttpping iin ndt clit . und igiin cni,nin j citiinclding t v in ti pt pjctd t t lt 60 dy v 90 c y,nd 20 dy tpping 100, by t lt 30 y ticnty (hy t l. 2009).

scintit l pjct tt t v in Ntaic nd ep ill bc intn, qnt, nd lnglting (IPCC 2012). und liin cni, t midt cn pct t v cpbl t t dvtting 2003 epn t v vy dcd by t lt 30 y tcnty vy t y nd igiincni (hy t l. 2009).

ov t vy lng t, clit cng cldk td tpt nbblnd pibly

Where Do We Go rom Here?

A midwestern landscape (right) shows wind turbines scattered across arm felds. By shiting to renewable energy

sources like wind and dramatically limiting our use o ossil uels, we can curb some o the extreme eects o climat

change and help minimize health risks rom hot weather. The energy choices we make today will shape the world

we and our children live in tomorrow.

ltlding t ttt nt in ny pt t ld (sd nd hb 2010). T cic

k tdy ill dtin ic t cni cc.wil nlyi tt dng

i v bc cn, ti i nly n t pblic lt ik citd it glbl ing. mny pctd, inclding ningzn plltin, dgdd t qlity, tbk tbn di, bctil ndvil di tnittd by qit, tick, nd, nd dgt, d, nd ltd cp il(uCs 2011).

Lcl ppdn i citicl t ptcting pbliclt nd ving liv ding t t vnt(unin Cncnd scintit 2012). hv, l nd cpniv ntinl ttgy t ctclitilint cniti nd dc t ttpping iin tt diving clit cng.

w cn c t ignicntly l glbling iin. By iting t nbl ngyc nd dticlly liiting il l, cn vid t t t clit cng.w cn l k cicbt individl nd citytt iniiz t lt ik dngly t t.

(LtoR):iStockphoto.c

om/bow

denimages;Dori([email protected]

nfo)


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1 In ti pt, dng t dy tpicl ndit tpicl+ i , ic v bn linkd ttltd illn nd tlity (Ntinl wt svic 2005; ebi t l. 2004; sidn nd Klktin 2004).

2 T ofc Clit, wt nd wt svic ndt Ntinl Clitic Dt Cnt cpil t nb tliti, inji, nd dg cd by tltd zd ing pt Ntinl wtsvic fc in t 50 tt, Pt ric, G,

nd t Vigin Ilnd.

3 w l vltd cnd ll city pid it Cicg:rckd, IL. T lt incncliv, nd dlittl tnd ny t. T tcnicl ppndi incldll lt rckd.

4 dtil n ppc nd

ucs report. heat in the heartland. 60 years of warming in the midwest

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