ubs 13 may 2008 - swedbanki/@sbg/@gs/@ir/... · ubs global financial services ... other income 950...

21
UBS Global Financial Services conference New York, May 13, 2008 Jan Lidén CEO

Upload: donguyet

Post on 20-Jun-2018

212 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

UBS Global Financial Services conference New York, May 13, 2008

Jan LidénCEO

(2)

LatviaTotal population: 2.3mEmployees: 2,653Private customers: 0.8mCorp. customers: 55,000Branches: 73Typical market share: 30%

The leading retail bank in four small countries

SwedenTotal population: 9.2mEmployees: 8,656Private customers: 4.1mCorp. customers: 277,000Organisations: 117,000Branches: 445Typical market share: 25%

LithuaniaTotal population: 3.4mEmployees: 3,319Private customers: 3.0mCorp. customers: 79,000Branches: 126Typical market share: 30%

EstoniaTotal population: 1.3mEmployees: 3,234Private customers: 1.2mCorp. customers: 90,000Branches: 91Typical market share: 50%

• Supporting markets: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Russia,Ukraine, USA, Luxemburg, China, Japan and Spain

80%

6% 5% 5% 4%

Swed

en

Esto

nia

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Oth

ers

Share of group lending

• Potential home markets: Russia and Ukraine

(3)

Strong position for profitability and growth

Ukraine and RussiaBalticsSweden

Stable base Growth and experience

Future growth and profitability

Swedbank is the leading bank in Sweden. Profitability is high and stable and the bank is consolidating its market shares in important segments in both the private and corporate sectors.

Swedbank has a small but growing presence in Ukraine and Russia. In the long term, a significant share of Swedbank’s growth will be generated in these markets.

The Baltic economies are experiencing strong economic growth that is expected to remain for many years. As the largest bank in the region, growing with the market ensures attractive earnings growth.

Share of profit Q1 2008: 65%

Share of lending Q1 2008: 80%

Share of profit Q1 2008: 3%

Share of lending Q1 2008: 2%

Share of profit Q1 2008: 32%

Share of lending Q1 2008: 16%

(4)

58%

32%

7% 6% 3%

-6%-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

SwedishBanking

BalticBanking

SwedbankMarkets

AssetManagement & Insurance

InternationalBanking

SharedServices& Group

Staffs

Share of Group net profit, Q1 2008

Swedbank, group overview

(5)

Strong NII and profit inline with Q1 2007

SEKmJan-Mar

2008Jan-Mar

2007 %Net interest income 5,241 4,501 16Net commission income 2,180 2,289 – 5Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 75 530 – 86Other income 950 473 101Total income 8,446 7,793 8Staff costs 2,311 1,932 20Profit-based staff costs 268 390 – 31Other expenses 1,861 1,615 15Total expenses 4,440 3,937 13Profit before loan losses 4,006 3,856 4Loan losses 288 49 488Operating profit 3,718 3,807 – 2Tax 805 851 – 5Profit for the period 2,913 2,956 – 1Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 2,900 2,910 – 0

Source: Swedbank Group

(6)

Strong asset quality and low loan losses

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

03 S

ep

03 D

ec

04 M

ar

04 J

un

04 S

ep

04 D

ec

05 M

ar

05 J

un

05 S

ep

05 D

ec

06 M

ar

06 J

un

06 S

ep

06 D

ec

07 M

ar

07 J

un

07 S

ep

07 D

ec

08 M

ar

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50

Impaired loansImpaired loan provisionsShare of impaired loans

SEKm %

(7)

Loan losses increasing from low level in the Baltics

0.35%-0.05%

0.23%0.56%0.21%

2007

0.39%

0.25%0.54%0.38%Q1 08

-0.28%Group level provision adjustment0.28%Baltic Banking

0.13%Lithuania0.78%Latvia0.67%EstoniaQ4 07

*Loan loss ratio, net = (changes in provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the year

Loan loss ratio, net*

Overdue ratio (more than 60 days)*

0.71%0.75%0.65%Q4 07

0.86%0.92%0.79%Q1 08

0.56%Baltic Banking0.49%Private0.58%CorporateQ2 07

*Overdue ratio (more than 60 days) = volume of loans more than 60 days overdue /12 month-old credit portfolio

(8)

Limited valuation effects from the credit crunch

Accounting and valuation effects, SEKmQ1

2008Q4

2007Q3

2007

Swedbank Markets – 187 – 40 – 60

Group Treasury, intra-group lending – 253 20 – 90

Swedbank Mortgage – 22 66 – 129

Group Treasury, liquidity portfolio 69 – 5 – 68

(9)

Swedish Banking

Continued solid volume growthNet interest income increased by 2%

compared with Q4 2007Lower equity related commission incomeContinuous work to adjust the branch

structure – sale of 8 branches to savings banks for SEK 440m

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q2 07

Q307

Q407

Q108

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Income Costs C/I-ratio

C/I-ratioSEKm C/I-ratioSEKm

(10)

Baltic Banking Operations

Profitability remained robustLending growth continued to

decreaseNet interest margins declined due to

decreasing local interest rates and higher funding costsNet loan losses as expectedCost focus

• Operational excellence pilots indicate substantial potential

• No new net staff recruitments

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,400

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q2 07

Q307

Q407

Q108

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Income Costs C/I-ratio

SEKm C/I-ratio

(11)

Baltic macro development

Real GDP growth

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009FEst Lat Lit

CPI growth

2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%

2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009FEst Lat Lit

• Economic slowdown in Estonia continues: GDP growth will fall to about 3.5% in 2008, with a recovery to 5% growth in 2009. The bottom of the cycle is expected to be in summer 2008

• In Latvia growth will decline to about 4% in 2008 and to about 3.0% in 2009. The bottom of the cycle is expected to be in winter 2008/2009

• Slowdown in Lithuania will be modest: expected GDP growth of about 6.0% in 2008 and about 5.5% in 2009• Export growth remains relatively strong, while weak domestic demand is reducing imports. Trade and

current account deficits are falling. CPI will peak in Q1 2008. Long-term GDP growth (6-7%) will be above EU average.

Source: Hansabank Markets

(12)

International Banking

Continued solid performance in Ukraine• Launch of the new brand initiated• Expansion and restructuring of the

branch network continues• New corporate offering

Cautious expansion in Russia• Raimo Valo new head of Russian

operationsCooperation with FDB/COOP regarding

banking products in Denmark.

0

25

50

75

100

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q2 07

Q307

Q407

Q108

International Banking, profit for the periodof which Russian Bankingof which Ukrainian Banking Operations

SEKm

(13)

Swedbank Markets

Fixed income and FX trading continued to do wellEquity trading was weaker due to

negative market sentimentMarket leader position in structured

products was improved, in a weaker marketWeak quarter in Corporate Finance for

First SecuritiesResult was negatively affected by

unrealized valuation effects as a result of the credit crunch.

050

100150200250300350400450500

Q106

Q206

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q2 07

Q307

Q407

Q108

Profit for the period attributable to shareholders of Swedbank First Securities

SEKm

(14)

Focus on funding

Funding costs have increasedHigher price of riskIncreased liquidity reserveShort-term adverse effect on margins

Covered bonds as of 21 April 2008AAA rating (S&P and Moody’s) ⇨ funding at lower costFacilitates access to a broader investor base – more stable liquidityProvides substantially increased liquidity reserve.

(15)

Swedbank funding structure

Swedbank Treasury (excluding Mortgage)

• Large deposit base• Liquidity reserves• Net lender in the

interbank market• Liquidity limits –

conservative view

Swedbank Mortgage constitutes a larger part of Swedbank Group’s balance sheet compared with other financial institutions

Distribution of net funding requirementSwedbank Mortgage

Lending to the public: SEK 1,131bn

Deposits80%

Equity8%

Funding12%

Equity4%

Funding96%

50%50%Swedbank Group, excl. Swedbank Mortgage SEK

562bn

Swedbank Mortgage

SEK 569bn

(16)

Summary

• Solid business development with corporates and private customers• Development as expected in the Baltic states• Funding programmes continue to function well – conversion to covered bonds on

21 April• Credit quality remains good, credit losses and impaired loans are increasing from

low levels• Lower commission income due to weaker equity markets and low corporate

finance activity• Net gains and losses on financial items were adversely affected by unrealized

valuation effects caused by the credit crunch

Swedbank - Positioned for profitability and growth

(17)

Appendix

(18)

Appendix

(19)

Exposures• No direct US subprime exposure

– Minimal indirect exposure through investments of EUR 48m in bonds issued by US mortgage institutions. The bonds have about 5% exposure to US subprime

• Total exposure to structured credits is minimal– No commitments as regards conduits or SIVs of any kind– Negligible exposure to CDOs

• Swedbank holds a very small CDO trading stock for client trades in CDOs issued by Swedbank, with mainly large caps as underlying risk

• Holdings totalled EUR 18m at end Q1– Exposure to Mortgage Backed Securities was about EUR 714m

• European Aaa and mainly residential• Held for EUR liquidity purposes and client trading

• Hedge fund exposure was about EUR 500m, all collateralized• Exposure to private equity firms and their target companies was about

EUR 1,350m in total – Nordic related LBOs

• The above-mentioned exposures together represent less than 1.5% of total assets.

(20)

Baltic Banking lending by sectors

593

1 076

1 780

1 800

2 933

8 370

3 185

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000

Other

Construction

Transport

Industry

Retail &Wholesale

Real-estatemgmt

Individuals

47

-35

88

64

-79

268

-2

-250 0 250 500 750

Portfolio, March 2008 Portfolio growth, Q1 08

42%

xx% - share of portfolio and portfolio growth

3%

5%

9%

9%

15%

10%

-12%

41%

16% 0%

13%

-5%

7%

As of 2008, Bank of Estonia changed the official sector classification details. During the process of implementing the new classification, Hansabank switched to a different source system and reviewed the sector data in detail. This resulted in many reclassifications, particularly as regards the real estate management sector. The current classification better illustrates Baltic Banking’s exposure to the real estate sector. Real estate management portfolio growth prior to reclassification was EUR 145m in Q1 08.

(21)

Key figures

Jan-Mar2008

Jan-Mar2007

Return on equity, % 16.8 18.9Earnings per share, SEK 5.63 5.65Equity per share, SEK 136.43 122.84C/I ratio before loan losses 0.53 0.51Loan loss ratio, net, % 0.10 0.02Share of impaired loans, % 0.16 0.07Dividend, SEK 9.00* 8.25Tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 8.2 8.0Tier 1 capital ratio, transition rules, % 6.5 6.8 Capital adequacy ratio, new rules, % 11.7 11.8 * according to Board of Directors proposal