ubs 13 may 2008 - swedbanki/@sbg/@gs/@ir/... · ubs global financial services ... other income 950...
TRANSCRIPT
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LatviaTotal population: 2.3mEmployees: 2,653Private customers: 0.8mCorp. customers: 55,000Branches: 73Typical market share: 30%
The leading retail bank in four small countries
SwedenTotal population: 9.2mEmployees: 8,656Private customers: 4.1mCorp. customers: 277,000Organisations: 117,000Branches: 445Typical market share: 25%
LithuaniaTotal population: 3.4mEmployees: 3,319Private customers: 3.0mCorp. customers: 79,000Branches: 126Typical market share: 30%
EstoniaTotal population: 1.3mEmployees: 3,234Private customers: 1.2mCorp. customers: 90,000Branches: 91Typical market share: 50%
• Supporting markets: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Russia,Ukraine, USA, Luxemburg, China, Japan and Spain
80%
6% 5% 5% 4%
Swed
en
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Oth
ers
Share of group lending
• Potential home markets: Russia and Ukraine
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Strong position for profitability and growth
Ukraine and RussiaBalticsSweden
Stable base Growth and experience
Future growth and profitability
Swedbank is the leading bank in Sweden. Profitability is high and stable and the bank is consolidating its market shares in important segments in both the private and corporate sectors.
Swedbank has a small but growing presence in Ukraine and Russia. In the long term, a significant share of Swedbank’s growth will be generated in these markets.
The Baltic economies are experiencing strong economic growth that is expected to remain for many years. As the largest bank in the region, growing with the market ensures attractive earnings growth.
Share of profit Q1 2008: 65%
Share of lending Q1 2008: 80%
Share of profit Q1 2008: 3%
Share of lending Q1 2008: 2%
Share of profit Q1 2008: 32%
Share of lending Q1 2008: 16%
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58%
32%
7% 6% 3%
-6%-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
SwedishBanking
BalticBanking
SwedbankMarkets
AssetManagement & Insurance
InternationalBanking
SharedServices& Group
Staffs
Share of Group net profit, Q1 2008
Swedbank, group overview
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Strong NII and profit inline with Q1 2007
SEKmJan-Mar
2008Jan-Mar
2007 %Net interest income 5,241 4,501 16Net commission income 2,180 2,289 – 5Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 75 530 – 86Other income 950 473 101Total income 8,446 7,793 8Staff costs 2,311 1,932 20Profit-based staff costs 268 390 – 31Other expenses 1,861 1,615 15Total expenses 4,440 3,937 13Profit before loan losses 4,006 3,856 4Loan losses 288 49 488Operating profit 3,718 3,807 – 2Tax 805 851 – 5Profit for the period 2,913 2,956 – 1Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 2,900 2,910 – 0
Source: Swedbank Group
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Strong asset quality and low loan losses
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
03 S
ep
03 D
ec
04 M
ar
04 J
un
04 S
ep
04 D
ec
05 M
ar
05 J
un
05 S
ep
05 D
ec
06 M
ar
06 J
un
06 S
ep
06 D
ec
07 M
ar
07 J
un
07 S
ep
07 D
ec
08 M
ar
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50
Impaired loansImpaired loan provisionsShare of impaired loans
SEKm %
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Loan losses increasing from low level in the Baltics
0.35%-0.05%
0.23%0.56%0.21%
2007
0.39%
0.25%0.54%0.38%Q1 08
-0.28%Group level provision adjustment0.28%Baltic Banking
0.13%Lithuania0.78%Latvia0.67%EstoniaQ4 07
*Loan loss ratio, net = (changes in provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the year
Loan loss ratio, net*
Overdue ratio (more than 60 days)*
0.71%0.75%0.65%Q4 07
0.86%0.92%0.79%Q1 08
0.56%Baltic Banking0.49%Private0.58%CorporateQ2 07
*Overdue ratio (more than 60 days) = volume of loans more than 60 days overdue /12 month-old credit portfolio
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Limited valuation effects from the credit crunch
Accounting and valuation effects, SEKmQ1
2008Q4
2007Q3
2007
Swedbank Markets – 187 – 40 – 60
Group Treasury, intra-group lending – 253 20 – 90
Swedbank Mortgage – 22 66 – 129
Group Treasury, liquidity portfolio 69 – 5 – 68
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Swedish Banking
Continued solid volume growthNet interest income increased by 2%
compared with Q4 2007Lower equity related commission incomeContinuous work to adjust the branch
structure – sale of 8 branches to savings banks for SEK 440m
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q2 07
Q307
Q407
Q108
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Income Costs C/I-ratio
C/I-ratioSEKm C/I-ratioSEKm
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Baltic Banking Operations
Profitability remained robustLending growth continued to
decreaseNet interest margins declined due to
decreasing local interest rates and higher funding costsNet loan losses as expectedCost focus
• Operational excellence pilots indicate substantial potential
• No new net staff recruitments
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,400
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q2 07
Q307
Q407
Q108
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Income Costs C/I-ratio
SEKm C/I-ratio
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Baltic macro development
Real GDP growth
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009FEst Lat Lit
CPI growth
2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009FEst Lat Lit
• Economic slowdown in Estonia continues: GDP growth will fall to about 3.5% in 2008, with a recovery to 5% growth in 2009. The bottom of the cycle is expected to be in summer 2008
• In Latvia growth will decline to about 4% in 2008 and to about 3.0% in 2009. The bottom of the cycle is expected to be in winter 2008/2009
• Slowdown in Lithuania will be modest: expected GDP growth of about 6.0% in 2008 and about 5.5% in 2009• Export growth remains relatively strong, while weak domestic demand is reducing imports. Trade and
current account deficits are falling. CPI will peak in Q1 2008. Long-term GDP growth (6-7%) will be above EU average.
Source: Hansabank Markets
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International Banking
Continued solid performance in Ukraine• Launch of the new brand initiated• Expansion and restructuring of the
branch network continues• New corporate offering
Cautious expansion in Russia• Raimo Valo new head of Russian
operationsCooperation with FDB/COOP regarding
banking products in Denmark.
0
25
50
75
100
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q2 07
Q307
Q407
Q108
International Banking, profit for the periodof which Russian Bankingof which Ukrainian Banking Operations
SEKm
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Swedbank Markets
Fixed income and FX trading continued to do wellEquity trading was weaker due to
negative market sentimentMarket leader position in structured
products was improved, in a weaker marketWeak quarter in Corporate Finance for
First SecuritiesResult was negatively affected by
unrealized valuation effects as a result of the credit crunch.
050
100150200250300350400450500
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q2 07
Q307
Q407
Q108
Profit for the period attributable to shareholders of Swedbank First Securities
SEKm
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Focus on funding
Funding costs have increasedHigher price of riskIncreased liquidity reserveShort-term adverse effect on margins
Covered bonds as of 21 April 2008AAA rating (S&P and Moody’s) ⇨ funding at lower costFacilitates access to a broader investor base – more stable liquidityProvides substantially increased liquidity reserve.
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Swedbank funding structure
Swedbank Treasury (excluding Mortgage)
• Large deposit base• Liquidity reserves• Net lender in the
interbank market• Liquidity limits –
conservative view
Swedbank Mortgage constitutes a larger part of Swedbank Group’s balance sheet compared with other financial institutions
Distribution of net funding requirementSwedbank Mortgage
Lending to the public: SEK 1,131bn
Deposits80%
Equity8%
Funding12%
Equity4%
Funding96%
50%50%Swedbank Group, excl. Swedbank Mortgage SEK
562bn
Swedbank Mortgage
SEK 569bn
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Summary
• Solid business development with corporates and private customers• Development as expected in the Baltic states• Funding programmes continue to function well – conversion to covered bonds on
21 April• Credit quality remains good, credit losses and impaired loans are increasing from
low levels• Lower commission income due to weaker equity markets and low corporate
finance activity• Net gains and losses on financial items were adversely affected by unrealized
valuation effects caused by the credit crunch
Swedbank - Positioned for profitability and growth
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Exposures• No direct US subprime exposure
– Minimal indirect exposure through investments of EUR 48m in bonds issued by US mortgage institutions. The bonds have about 5% exposure to US subprime
• Total exposure to structured credits is minimal– No commitments as regards conduits or SIVs of any kind– Negligible exposure to CDOs
• Swedbank holds a very small CDO trading stock for client trades in CDOs issued by Swedbank, with mainly large caps as underlying risk
• Holdings totalled EUR 18m at end Q1– Exposure to Mortgage Backed Securities was about EUR 714m
• European Aaa and mainly residential• Held for EUR liquidity purposes and client trading
• Hedge fund exposure was about EUR 500m, all collateralized• Exposure to private equity firms and their target companies was about
EUR 1,350m in total – Nordic related LBOs
• The above-mentioned exposures together represent less than 1.5% of total assets.
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Baltic Banking lending by sectors
593
1 076
1 780
1 800
2 933
8 370
3 185
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Other
Construction
Transport
Industry
Retail &Wholesale
Real-estatemgmt
Individuals
47
-35
88
64
-79
268
-2
-250 0 250 500 750
Portfolio, March 2008 Portfolio growth, Q1 08
42%
xx% - share of portfolio and portfolio growth
3%
5%
9%
9%
15%
10%
-12%
41%
16% 0%
13%
-5%
7%
As of 2008, Bank of Estonia changed the official sector classification details. During the process of implementing the new classification, Hansabank switched to a different source system and reviewed the sector data in detail. This resulted in many reclassifications, particularly as regards the real estate management sector. The current classification better illustrates Baltic Banking’s exposure to the real estate sector. Real estate management portfolio growth prior to reclassification was EUR 145m in Q1 08.
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Key figures
Jan-Mar2008
Jan-Mar2007
Return on equity, % 16.8 18.9Earnings per share, SEK 5.63 5.65Equity per share, SEK 136.43 122.84C/I ratio before loan losses 0.53 0.51Loan loss ratio, net, % 0.10 0.02Share of impaired loans, % 0.16 0.07Dividend, SEK 9.00* 8.25Tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 8.2 8.0Tier 1 capital ratio, transition rules, % 6.5 6.8 Capital adequacy ratio, new rules, % 11.7 11.8 * according to Board of Directors proposal