tvs srichakra result updated

17
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  Y/E March ( ` cr) 2QFY2012 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) Total Income 354 347 1.9 269 31.3 EBITDA 33 31 7.0 22  48.9 EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 8.8 44bp 8.2 109bp Reported PAT 11 12 (7.7) 10 11.1  Source: Company, Angel Research TVS Srichakra (TVSSL) reported a mixed set of numbers for 2QFY2012. The company’s net sales witnessed robust growth of 31.3% yoy to  ` 354cr, which resulted in a 109bp yoy increase in the company’s OPM to 9.3%. However, PAT increased only by 11.1% yoy to  ` 11cr, mainly due to high interest cost as loans have increased substantially to  ` 385cr for 1HFY2012. We expect the company to report profit of  ` 48cr and  ` 71cr for FY2012E and FY2013E, respectively.  We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.  Expansion at Madurai plant and better performance of two-wheeler sales to drive volume: TVSSL increased its capacity substantially in FY2010 at its Pantnagar plant to meet the  growing demand for tyres. Consequently, in 1HFY2012, the company’s debt increased to  ` 385cr because of the expansion plan carried out at the Madurai plant to increase its SKUs (Stock Keeping Units). Also, the major segment, the two-wheeler segment, to which the company caters, has witnessed growth of 15% YTD and is expected to witness a 13% CAGR over FY2011-13E. These factors will lead to an 11% CAGR in the company’s volumes over FY2011-13E. Outlook and valuation:  We expect TVSSL to post a 23% revenue CAGR over FY2011-13E to  ` 1,636cr, aided by an 11% volume increase. The operating margin of the company is expected to increase by 174bp to 10.1% in FY2013E on the back of the expected softening of rubber prices. We expect PAT to grow at a CAGR of 35% over FY2011-13E to  ` 71cr in FY2013E. At  ` 314, TVSSL is trading at 3.4x FY2013E earnings and P/B of 1.1x for FY2013E. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of  ` 464, based on a target PE of 5x for FY2013E.  Key financials Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Net sales 701 1085 1437 1636 % chg 21.6 54.9 32.4 13.8 Net profit 30 39 48 71 % chg 233.0 31.0 23.0 47.8 EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 8.4 9.1 10.1 EPS ( ` ) 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9 P/E (x) 8.0 6.1 5.0 3.4 P/BV (x) 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.1 RoE (%) 34.8 34.4 31.6 33.2 RoCE (%) 19.9 19.7 19.7 23.0 EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.4 4.7 3.6  Source: Company, Angel Research BUY CMP  ` 314 Target Price  ` 464 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 44.6 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8. 0 FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.1 Indian Public / Others 47.3  Abs.( %) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (0.6) (17.9) 83.2 TVSSL ( 10.4) 4. 5 448.2 Nif ty 4,906 Reuters Code TVSC.BO SRTY IN 52 Week High / Low 400 / 226 Tyres Market Cap (  ` cr) 240 Beta 0.3  Avg. Daily Volume 1,984 Face Value (  ` ) 10 BSE Sensex 16,372  Tejashwini Kumari 30940000 ext: 6856 [email protected] TVS Srichakra Performance Highlights Company Update | Tyres November 18, 2011

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Page 1: TVS Srichakra Result Updated

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2012 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy)

Total Income 354 347 1.9 269 31.3

EBITDA 33 31 7.0 22  48.9

EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 8.8 44bp 8.2 109bp

Reported PAT 11 12 (7.7) 10 11.1

 Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Srichakra (TVSSL) reported a mixed set of numbers for 2QFY2012. The

company’s net sales witnessed robust growth of 31.3% yoy to  ` 354cr, which

resulted in a 109bp yoy increase in the company’s OPM to 9.3%. However, PATincreased only by 11.1% yoy to  ` 11cr, mainly due to high interest cost as loans

have increased substantially to  ` 385cr for 1HFY2012. We expect the company to

report profit of  ` 48cr and  ` 71cr for FY2012E and FY2013E, respectively.  We

maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. 

Expansion at Madurai plant and better performance of two-wheeler sales to drive

volume: TVSSL increased its capacity substantially in FY2010 at its Pantnagar

plant to meet the  growing demand for tyres. Consequently, in 1HFY2012, the

company’s debt increased to  ` 385cr because of the expansion plan carried out at

the Madurai plant to increase its SKUs (Stock Keeping Units). Also, the major

segment, the two-wheeler segment, to which the company caters, has witnessedgrowth of 15% YTD and is expected to witness a 13% CAGR over FY2011-13E.

These factors will lead to an 11% CAGR in the company’s volumes over FY2011-13E.

Outlook and valuation:   We expect TVSSL to post a 23% revenue CAGR over

FY2011-13E to  ` 1,636cr, aided by an 11% volume increase. The operating

margin of the company is expected to increase by 174bp to 10.1% in FY2013E

on the back of the expected softening of rubber prices. We expect PAT to grow at

a CAGR of 35% over FY2011-13E to  ` 71cr in FY2013E. At  ` 314, TVSSL is trading

at 3.4x FY2013E earnings and P/B of 1.1x for FY2013E. We maintain our

Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of  ` 464, based on a target

PE of 5x for FY2013E. 

Key financials

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Net sales 701 1085 1437 1636

% chg 21.6 54.9 32.4 13.8

Net profit 30 39 48 71

% chg 233.0 31.0 23.0 47.8

EBITDA margin (%) 9.3 8.4 9.1 10.1

EPS (`) 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9

P/E (x) 8.0 6.1 5.0 3.4

P/BV (x) 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.1

RoE (%) 34.8 34.4 31.6 33.2

RoCE (%) 19.9 19.7 19.7 23.0

EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 5.4 4.7 3.6

 Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP  ` 314

Target Price  ` 464

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 44.6

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.0

FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.1

Indian Public / Others 47.3

 Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (0.6) (17.9) 83.2

TVSSL (10.4) 4.5 448.2

Nifty 4,906Reuters Code TVSC.BO

SRTY IN

52 Week High / Low 400 / 226

Tyres

Market Cap ( ` cr) 240

Beta 0.3

 Avg. Daily Volume 1,984

Face Value ( ` ) 10

BSE Sensex 16,372

 

Tejashwini Kumari

30940000 ext: 6856

[email protected]

TVS Srichakra

Performance Highlights

Company Update | Tyres

November 18, 2011

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  2

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2012 performance

Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2012 2QFY2011 yoy chg (%) 1QFY2012 qoq chg (%) 1HFY2012 1H20FY11 % chg

Net Sales 354 269 31.3 347 1.9 701 496 41.3

Net raw material 243 168  44.4 234 3.6 477 307 55.6(% of Sales) 68.6 62.4 67.5 68.1 43.8

Staff Costs 23 20 14.4 23 (3.2) 46 36  28.7

(% of Sales) 6.4 7.3 6.7 6.6 5.1

Other Expenses 56 59 (6.4) 59 (5.2) 114 111  2.6

(% of Sales) 15.7 22.1 16.9 16.3 15.9

Total Expenditure 321 247 29.8 316 1.5 637 454 40.5

Operating Profit 33 22 48.9 31 7.0 63 42 50.3

OPM 9.3 8.2 109bp 8.8 44bp 9.0 8.5 54bp

Interest 13 6 117.2 11 10.6 24 12 104.5

Depreciation 6 4 52.8 6 8.9 12 9 37.5

Other Income 2 2 (7.5) 4 (50.3) 6 3 108.9

PBT 16 14 11.6 18 (8.9) 33 25 35.5

(% of Sales) 4.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.5

Tax 5 4 12.6 5 (11.5) 10 7  40.7

(% of PBT) 30.0 29.7 30.9 30.5 29.4

Reported PAT 11 10 11.1 12 (7.7) 23 17 33.4

PATM 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 2.5

Equity capital (cr) 8 8 8 8 8

EPS (`) 14.6 13.1 11.1 15.8 (7.7) 30.4 22.8 33.4

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Muted bottom-line growth due to increased interest cost

TVSSL reported robust top-line growth of 31.3% yoy, with 109bp yoy growth on the

operating margin front to 9.3%. However, the bottom line remained muted at

 ` 11cr, growth of 11.1% yoy, mainly due to a 117.2% yoy increase in interest cost.

In 1HFY2012, the company’s debt increased to  ` 385cr because of the expansion

plan carried out at the Madurai plant to increase its SKUs.

Exhibit 2: Revenue growth

 Source: Company

Exhibit 3: EBITDA and EBITDA margin growth

 Source: Company

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

0

100

200

300

400

   2   Q   F   Y   1   0

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   1   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

(%)( ` cr)Revenue (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

0

10

20

30

40

   2   Q   F   Y   1   0

   3   Q   F   Y   1   0

   4   Q   F   Y   0

   1   Q   F   Y   1   1

   2   Q   F   Y   1   1

   3   Q   F   Y   1   1

   4   Q   F   Y   1   1

   1   Q   F   Y   1   2

   2   Q   F   Y   1   2

(%)( ̀ cr

) EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  3

TVSSL enjoys highest operating and profit margin among peers

TVSSL 2QFY2012 results were the best among its peers with an OPM of 9.3% and

profit margin of 3.2%. Apollo tyres, with an OPM of 8.0% and profit margin of

2.7% followed TVSSL. On the other side, JK Tyres reported loss in the same

quarter.

Exhibit 4: 2QFY2012 financial performance

Company Net sales (`cr) EBITDA (`cr) OPM (%) PAT (`cr) Profit margin (%)

TVS Srichakra 354 33 9.3 11 3.2

CEAT 1118 61 5.5 6 0.5

JK Tyres 1288 (17) (1.3) (11) (0.8)

MRF* 2573 154 6.0 32 1.2

  Apollo Tyres 2871 230 8.0 78 2.

*3QSY2011 data for MRF Source: Company

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  4

Investment rationale

Expansion at Madurai plant to expand SKUs

TVSSL has increased its debt to  ` 385cr in 1HF2012 for the expansion plan at theMadurai plant to increase its SKUs. After the expansion in installed capacity at its

Pantnagar plant in FY2010, the company is on a growth trajectory to cater to

various segments and, hence, is now expanding its SKUs. Also, the company has

announced to invest in equity shares of a subsidiary being formed in the UK for the

acquisition of a distribution business in Europe. 

High domestic demand for two-wheelers to drive volumes

Two-wheeler domestic sales have witnessed growth of 14.8% yoy YTD, whereas

M&HCVs grew by 8.2% and passenger vehicles reported a decline of 1.8% for the

same period. As TVSSL is largely into the two and three-wheeler tyres segments,

it continues to be insulated from the current slowdown in the automobile sector.

 We expect the two-wheeler segment to grow at a 13% CAGR over FY2011-13E.

Based on this growth and increased capacity utilization, we expect the company’s

volume to grow at a CAGR of 11% over FY2011-13.

Exhibit 5: Domestic sales of automobiles (April–October) (in ’000)

FY2011 FY2012 % Change

Passenger vehicles 1,403 1,379 (1.8)

M&HCVs 173 188 8.2

Three-wheelers 299 298 (0.4)

Two-wheelers 6,738 7,739 14.8Total 8,614 9,603 11.5

 Source: SIAM

Increase in promoters’ stake – A positive for the company 

The company’s promoters further increased their share in 2QFY2012 to 44.6%.

There is a consistent increase in the promoters’ share in the company, which is a

positive signal for investors, as it demonstrates the confidence of promoters in the

company’s future growth outlook.

Exhibit 6: Promoters’ stake

39.5

44.6

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11

   (   %  o

   f   h  o

   l   d   i  n  g

   )

 

 Source: Company

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  5

Financial performance

 Assumptions

Exhibit 7: Key assumptions

FY2012E FY2013E

 Volume growth (%) 10.6 11.1

Realization growth (%) 16.0 2.0

Change in raw-material prices (%) 26.0 (4.0)

 Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 8: Change in estimates

Y/E March Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg

FY2012E FY2013E FY2012E FY2013E FY2012E FY2013E

Net sales (` cr) 1430 1607 1437 1636 0.5 1.8

OPM (%) 8.6 9.2 9.1 10.1 52bp 89bp

EPS (`) 74.0 94.0 62.8 92.9 (15.1) (1.2)

 Source: Angel Research

  We expect the company to report a strong revenue CAGR of 23% over

FY2011-13E, from  ` 1,085cr in FY2011 to  ` 1,636cr in FY2013E on the back of

11.1% volume growth. With the expected softening in rubber prices and increase

in operating leverage, we expect the company’s EBITDA margin to improve by 

174bp over FY2011-13E, from 8.4% in FY2011 to 10.1% in FY2013E. Due to

increased debt, we expect interest rate to jump from ` 

30cr in FY2011 to ` 

52cr inFY2013E. We expect PAT to grow at a CAGR of 35% over FY2011-13E to  ` 71cr. 

Exhibit 9: Revenue and revenue growth

 Source: Company, Angel Research

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

   (   %   )

   (   `   C  r   )

Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  6

Exhibit 10: EBITDA and EBITDA margin

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: PAT and PAT growth

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Competition

TVSSL, with a market share of 25% (in FY2011), enjoys the highest RoE among

other players in the tyre industry. The company looks very attractive on the

valuation front, with a PE of 5.0x and 3.4x for FY2012E and FY2013E,

respectively.

Exhibit 12: Relative valuation

Company YearSales(` cr)

OPM(%)

PAT(` cr)

EPS(`)

ROE(%)

P/E(x)

P/BV(x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

EV/Sales (x)

TVSSL 2012E 1,437 9.1 48 62.8 31.6 5.0 1.6 4.7 0.4

TVSSL 2013E 1,636 10.1 71 92.9 33.2 3.4 1.1 3.6 0.4

Goodyear CY2011E 1,562 7.1 67 28.9 22.7 9.6 2.0 3.5 0.2

Goodyear CY2012E 1,835 8.2 92 39.8 30.8 7.0 1.7 1.9 0.2

MRF SY2011E 10,026 8.1 292 688.0 14.9 9.3 1.4 6.0 0.5

MRF SY2012E 11,743 10.1 462 1088.8 19.3 5.9 1.1 4.2 0.4

Apollo Tyres 2012E 11,819 8.9 363 7.2 12.2 8.5 1.1 5.2 0.5

Apollo Tyres 2013E 13,296 9.4 468 9.3 14.8 6.6 1.0 4.3 0.4

 Source: Company, Angel Research

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

40

80

120

160

200

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

   (   %   )

   (   `   C  r   )

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

   (   %   )

   (   `   C  r   )

PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  7

Outlook and valuation

 We remain positive on the tyre industry and our earnings estimates, mainly on the

back of strong replacement and OE demand in the domestic market. We expect

the company to deliver a strong revenue CAGR of 23% over FY2011-13E to

 ` 1,636cr. Also, due to softening rubber prices, we expect the company’s EBITDA 

margin to improve by 174bp over FY2011-13E, from 8.4% in FY2011 to 10.1% in

FY2013E. PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35% over FY2011-13E to  ` 71cr in

FY2013E. At current levels, the stock is trading at 3.4x FY2013E earnings and P/B

of 1.1x for FY2013E. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a

target price of  ` 464, based on a target PE of 5x for FY2013E. 

Exhibit 13: One-year forward PE band

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Channel check 

 We interacted with the dealers of TVSSL regarding the sales, demand and price

change. According to them, demand is sustainable on the back of increasing

replacement demand, as the number of vehicles is increasing day by day.

The price range for TVSSL’s two-wheeler tyres is  ` 500-1,600 in the market. There

was a price increase of 5% across all types of tyres 2-3 months back. However,

there are no new launches in FY2012 YTD. The company provides dealers two

types of discounts – quantity discount (i.e., discount on lots) and product discount

(i.e., tubes free with tyres).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11

   (   `   )

Price (`) 2x 6x 10x 14x

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  8

Risks

Further rise in raw-material prices

Rubber, the key raw material of the company, witnessed a price increase of ~48%from  ` 167/kg in May 2010 to  ` 246/kg in May 2011. Though rubber prices are

witnessing a downtrend from April 2011, any further price rise may pressurise the

company’s operating margin.

Exhibit 14: Rubber prices

 Source: Rubber Board

Due to a difference in mix, rubber cost is typically 30% lower for TVSSL than other

tyre companies.

Sensitivity analysis of EPS

The sensitivity analysis reflects the changes in EPS w.r.t. the percentage change in

rubber price and realization. On our assumption of a 4% decrease in rubber price

and a 2% increase in realization, the EPS for FY2013E stands at  ` 92.9. However, if

rubber price goes down by 10% and realization increases by 10%, EPS can grow to

 ` 210.9; but if rubber price goes up by 10% with the same increase in realization,

EPS will decrease to  ` 85.7.

Exhibit 15: Impact on EPS w.r.t. % chg. in realization and rubber price

(% Chg. in rubber prices)

(% chnezao

(10%) (4%) 0% 10% 20% 30%

(10%) 9.7 (27.9) (52.9) (115.5) (178.1) (240.7)

0% 110.3 72.7 47.7 (14.9) (77.5) (140.1)

2% 130.4 92.9 67.8 5.2 (57.4) (120.0)

10%   210.9 173.3 148.3 85.7 23.1 (39.5)

20% 311.5 273.9 248.9 186.3 123.7 61.1

30%   412.1 374.6 349.5 286.9 224.3 161.7

 Source: Company, Angel Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

   A  p  r -

   1   0

   J  u  n -   1

   0

   A  u  g -   1

   0

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   D  e  c -   1

   0

   F  e

   b -   1

   1

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   1   1

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   t -   1   1

   (   `   /   K  g

   )

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  9

Slowdown in the two-wheeler automobile segment

  Any slowdown in the domestic sales of two wheelers may pose a risk to the

company, as tyre demand (OE segment) is directly dependent on automobile

demand. The company is highly exposed to OE demand, which contributes 58% to

its revenue; so any slowdown in the OE segment’s demand may adversely affect

the company’s growth.

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  10

Tyre industry in India 

  According to Crisil Research, the Indian tyre industry is estimated at  ` 29,000cr

(as of June 2011), registering a CAGR of 16% over FY2007–11. The industry has

an aggregate installed capacity of 13.7cr units and production of 9.7cr units of

tyres (FY2009–10). The industry has three segments: original equipment (OE)

(26%), replacement (63%) and exports (11%).

The industry’s margins are directly linked to raw-material cost, as it constitutes 66%

of sales turnover and 70% of operational cost. In FY2011, the industry’s operating

margin declined by 450-480bp from 13.4% in FY2009-10 because of the sharp

increase of 66% in natural rubber prices in the domestic market. In contrast, price

realization for the same period was 17-19%, which was insufficient to sustain

margins.

Exhibit 16: Industry segments (As of March 2011)

 Source: Crisil Research

Two-wheeler and three-wheeler tyre industry 

The two-wheeler and three-wheeler tyre industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of

13% over FY2011–13E. MRF is the leader in this segment, with a market share of

28% followed by TVSSL (25%).

Exhibit 17: Market share of two-wheeler and three-wheeler tyres

Company FY2011 – Market share (%)

MRF Ltd. 28

TVS Srichakra Ltd. 25

Falcon Tyres Ltd. 18

CEAT 8

Others 21

 Source: Crisil Research

Truck and bus

53%

Cars and UVs

13%

Tractors

10%

2/3 wheelers

12%

LCV 

8%

Others

4%

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  11

The company 

TVSSL is part of the TVS Group. The company is a leading manufacturer of

two-wheeler and three-wheeler tyres and enjoys a market share of 25% (FY2011).

The company manufactures a complete range of two-wheeler and three-wheeler

tyres for the domestic market. For the export market, the company manufactures

industrial pneumatic tyres, farm and implements tyres, skid steer tyres,

multipurpose tyres and floatation tyres, among others. TVSSL’s manufacturing units

are located at Madurai, Tamil Nadu and Pantnagar (Uttarakhand). The company 

has a total installed capacity of 330lakh units of tyres (as of March 2011).

In FY2010, TVSSL setup a new plant at Pantnagar, Uttarakhand (production

started in July 2009), and increased the capacity at its Madurai plant. This resulted

in a significant increase of 170% in its installed capacity of automotive tyres to

3.3cr units in FY2011 from FY2009.

 With a network of over 2,050 dealers and 20 warehouses across the country, the

company is a major supplier to TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and India

Yamaha Motor. Company also exports to the US, Europe, Africa, South America

and Southeast Asia. TVSSL earns 58% of its revenue from OE segment, 30% from

the replacement segment and the rest 11% from exports.

Exhibit 18: Segment-wise revenue break-up

 Source: Company

OE segment58%

Replacementsegment

30%

Exports12%

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  12

Standalone Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Gross sales 520 643 753 1181 1566 1782

Less: Excise duty 62 67 53 96 128 146Net Sales 458 576 701 1085 1437 1636

Other operating income - - - - - -

Total operating income 458 576 701 1085 1437 1636

% chg 25.8 21.6 54.9 32.4 13.8

Net Raw Materials 305 390 432 691 950 1057

% chg 28.2 10.5 60.0 37.5 11.3

Other Mfg costs 28 37 56 89 103 118

% chg 32.2 48.9 60.0 16.0 13.8

Personnel 35 42 54 84 102 116

% chg 20.8 26.9 57.7 20.9 13.8

Other 61 66 95 130 151 180

% chg 8.1 43.9 37.7 15.7 19.2

Total Expenditure 429 536 636 995 1306 1471

EBITDA 30 40 65 91 131 165

% chg 37.1 60.9 39.1 44.6 25.9

(% of Net Sales) 6.4 7.0 9.3 8.4 9.1 10.1

Depreciation& Amortisation 9 10 12 16 23 27

EBIT 20 31 53 75 108 138

% chg 49.7 74.4 40.2 44.7 27.7

(% of Net Sales) 4.5 5.3 7.6 6.9 7.5 8.5

Interest & other Charges 11 19 16 30 51 52

Other Income 4 1 6 12 13 16

(% of sales) 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0

Recurring PBT 9 12 38 45 57 87

% chg 26.7 222.0 19.7 25.8 52.6

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PBT (reported) 14 13 43 57 70 103

Tax 4 4 14 18 22 32

(% of PBT) 32.5 31.9 31.2 31.5 31.0 31.0

PAT (reported) 9 9 30 39 48 71

ADJ. PAT 9 9 30 39 48 71% chg (2.0) 233.0 31.0 23.0 47.8

(% of Net Sales) 2.0 1.6 4.3 3.6 3.3 4.3

Basic EPS (`) 11.9 11.7 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9

Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) 11.9 11.7 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9

% chg (2.0) 233.0 31.0 23.0 47.8

Dividend 3 3 8 10 10 10

Retained Earning  6 6 22 30 39 62

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  13

Standalone Balance Sheet

Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 8 8 8 8 8 8Reserves & Surplus 51 57 78 106 145 206

Shareholders’ Funds 59 65 86 114 152 214

Total Loans 159 157 174 256 388 376

Deferred Tax Liability 8 8 8 10 10 10

Total Liabilities 225 230 268 380 550 600

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 127 146 192 250 300 330

Less: Acc. Depreciation 64 74 80 95 118 145

Net Block 63 72 112 155 182 185

Capital Work-in-Progress 1 1 3 10 10 10

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 1 1 3 3 3 3

Current Assets 219 213 315 481 688 782

Cash 4 13 9 5 9 15

Loans & Advances 37 27 32 37 66 69

Inventory 94 65 155 264 342 388

Debtors 85 107 119 174 272 309

Current liabilities 59 57 166 269 333 379

Net Current Assets 160 156 150 212 356 403

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Deferred Tax assets - - - - - -

Total Assets 225 230 268 380 550 600

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  14

Standalone Cash Flow Statement

Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Profit before tax 14 13 43 57 70 103

Depreciation 9 10 12 16 23 27Change in Working Capital (39) 13 2 (66) (139) (42)

Less: Direct taxes paid 4 4 14 18 22 32

Others (4) (3) (4) (18) (10) (12)

Cash Flow from Operations (11) 50 62 10 (17) 105

(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (11) (18) (49) (65) (50) (30)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (2) - 2 7 - -

Interest received - - - - - -

Others 1 - (10) (8) (5) (3)

Cash Flow from Investing (11) (18) (56) (65) (55) (33)

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 38 (1) 17 81 132 (12)

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 3 3 8 10 10 10

Interest paid 11 19 16 30 51 52

Others (1) - 4 (10) (6) (6)

Cash Flow from Financing 25 (23) (10) 52 77 (67)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3 9 (5) (3) 4 6

Opening Cash balances 2 4 13 9 5 9

Closing Cash balances 4 13 9 5 9 15

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

November 18, 2011  15

Standalone Key Ratios 

Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 26.2 26.8 8.0 6.1 5.0 3.4P/CEPS 13.2 12.7 5.8 4.4 3.4 2.5

P/BV 4.1 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.1

Dividend yield (%) 1.1 1.1 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.0

EV/Sales 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4

EV/EBITDA 13.3 9.5 6.2 5.4 4.7 3.6

EV / Total Assets 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 11.9 11.7 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9

EPS (fully diluted) 11.9 11.7 39.0 51.1 62.8 92.9

Cash EPS 23.8 24.6 54.4 71.7 92.6 127.8

DPS 3.5 3.5 10.0 12.5 12.5 12.5

Book Value 77.2 84.8 112.0 148.6 199.0 279.3

Dupont Analysis

EBIT margin 4.5 5.3 7.6 6.9 7.5 8.5

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

  Asset turnover (x) 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9

ROIC (Post-tax) 6.3 9.7 14.5 14.2 14.2 16.7

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.8 8.2 6.2 7.9 9.2 9.5

Leverage (x) 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.7

Operating ROE 10.3 13.1 30.3 27.7 26.4 28.7

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 9.1 13.3 19.9 19.7 19.7 23.0

  Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 9.3 14.3 21.0 20.7 20.5 24.1

ROE 15.5 13.8 34.8 34.4 31.6 33.2

Turnover ratios (x)

  Asset Turnover 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 4.8 5.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 74 41 81 89 21 22

Receivables (days) 67 68 62 58 69 69

Payables (days) 50 38 95 99 93 94

  WC (ex-cash) (days) 124 90 74 70 88 87

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.7

Net debt to EBITDA 5.2 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.2

Interest Coverage 1.8 1.6 3.4 2.5 2.1 2.7

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 TVS Srichakra | Company Update

 Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement TVS Srichakra

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

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Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

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