Švaraus oro iššūkis Europos miestuose

Turime 12 metų pokyčiams

Dr. Kęstutis Morkūnas, EIT InnoEnergy

Vilnius, 28/11/2019

Largest business accelerator for sustainable energy & cleantech in Europe

8 offices / 12 HUBs – European coverage

www.innoenergy.com 1

Diagnosis

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Air pollution at the top of the agenda

Report by the Court of Auditors pointsnumerous failures including thedesign of the legislation,implementation by EU countries,Commission enforcement andincoherence with other areas of EUpolicy.

European Commission’s report statesthat there is urgent short-term need totake decisive action to achieve theobjectives of the Ambent Ait QualityDirectives at national, regional andlocal level and with the full involvementof market actors.

Event: COP24 Katowice UN Climate Summit

Health effects of air pollution are not limitedto lung cancer or respiratory illnesses.Researchers at Washington Universityestimated that in 2016 smog contributed toabout 3.2 milion cases of diabetes.

European Commission refersFrance, Germany, Hungary, Italy,Romania, and the United Kingdomto the Court of Justice of the EU forfailing to comply with EU airquality standards.

The first Clean Air Outlook is now available

Air pollution laws too weak to protect citizens’ health, EU auditors find

Strong link found between air pollution and diabetes

Climate Change Conference – themost important global forum devotedto world climate polices will be held inKatowice.

6 countries taken to Europe’s highestcourt over airpollution

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May 2018

September 2018 June 2018

April 2018

December 2018

Socio-economic impacts of air pollution

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Impacts of air pollution on society Economic consequences of air pollution

Exodus of talents

Short and long-term health consequences

Affected quality of life

Lower growth of human capital Lower GDP

Lower taxrevenues

Higher healthcareexpenditures

Lower labour supplyand productivity

A call for action: average annual cost of air pollutionin the EU is around 2.9% of its GDP

*Source: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/air/pdf/Impact_assessment_en.pdf 6

243 BLN EURMaximum estimated effect

775 BLN EUR

Total annual costs related to the health effects of air pollution in EU-28 in 2020*

Minimum estimated effect

These are values for the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario for air pollutionin the EU. We argue that realisation of passive BAU is not desirable nor inevitable.

Air pollution in Europe – links to energy use

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Percentage of population exposed to air pollution concentrations above WHO air quality guidelines(UE, urban areas)

share of total emission

HeatingTransport

BaP

75% 57% 42% 42% 13%39% 19% 11%

In Europe, air pollution is primarily a result of the combustion of hydrocarbons in road transport and residential heating

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PM2.5

83% 96%

PM10

53%

CO₂

8%

O3NO₂

NOX PM2.5 PM2.5 PM10 CO2 SOX

Source: European Environmental Agency

Clean Air Challenge project overview

Variety of applied analytical toolsScope of the study

Chief contractor

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Objective Identification of solutions in transport and heating area that are optimalin terms of expected investment return and impact on air quality.

Technology

Markets and economicincentives

Societal awareness and education

Public policiesand regulations

Key stakeholders

Dedicated survey of experts’ opinions

Econometric panel models

Macroeconomic simulation

Case-studies

Consultations with experts

Outlook in selected EU countries and cities

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Bruxelles / Brussel

Antwerpen

Liège

Sofia

Burgas

Praha

Ostrava

København

Aalborg

Berlin

Hamburg München

Essen

Leipzig

Dortmund

Frankfurt (Oder)

Rostock

Kaiserslautern

Tallinn Dublin

Athina

Irakleio

Madrid

Barcelona

Málaga

Oviedo

ParisStrasbourg

Bordeaux

Lille

Rennes

MarseilleRoma

Napoli

Torino

Palermo

Bologna

Verona

Riga

Vilnius

Luxembourg

Budapest

MiskolcValletta

AmsterdamRotterdamWien

Warszawa

Kraków

Gdansk

Bialystok

Lisboa

Braga

Bucuresti

Cluj-Napoca

Piatra Neamt

Ljubljana

Bratislava

Kosice

Helsinki / Helsingfors

StockholmMalmöGlasgow

ManchesterCardiff

BelfastNewcastle upon Tyne

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

PM

10 c

once

ntr

ation [

µg/m

³]

city GDP per capita [EUR]

In Europe smog prevalence in cities (measured by PM10) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita, though relation is not very strong

The EU consists of manycountries or regions that performwell in terms of economicgrowth, but fail to improve airquality.

Only country with concentrationswithin WHO limits in 2015

The highest share of BaP in EU-28

78% of urban population exposed to PM10 levels above EU standards

On the regional level air quality not compliant with EU regulation

Particulates and ozone concentrationsabove the EU and WHO limits

Largest emissions of NOx within the EU

Source: Analysis by Deloitte based on Eurostat

Solutions

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The technology tree

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The technology tree summarizes the mapped innovative solutions in the areas of transport and heating.

Potentialsolutions

Transport Heating

Electromobility and alternative fuels

Technologies supporting modal, organizational and behavioural shifts

Optimisation of combustion process

Alternative fuel vehicles

Alternative transport solutions

Infrastructure for alternative fuels

Traffic optimisation

Last mile solutions

Increasing accessibility to low emission transport modes

Energy efficiency

Insulation

Efficient Energy management

Grid, storage, and other integrating solutions

Smart Heat Grid

Solar power efficiency

Heat Storage

Integrating solutions

Heat generation

Heating from renewable energy

Combined heat and power stations (CHPs)

Heat pumps

Energy recuperation

4th and 5th generation networks

Decentralised heat generation

The technology tree was constructed with the help of thorough research and also consultations with leading experts. It was the starting point in our search for innovative solutions, that have good market prospects and can reduce emissions.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

HYBRID POWER TRAINS

PUBLIC TRANSPORT WITH INTEGRATED SOLAR

INFRASTRUCTURE

HYDROGEN AND FUELL CELLS

SYNTHETIC FUELS

BIO- AND LANDFILL GAS

UNDERGROUND ELECTRIC TRAINS

HIGH-TECH BUSES

TRUCK PLATOONING

INTERCONNECTED CHARGING NETWORKS

MULTIPLE CAR CHARGING SOLUTIONS

FAST-CHARGERS

UNIVERSAL PLUGS

THE WIRELESS CHARGING TECHNOLOGY

INDUCTIVE CHARGING

CNG REFUELLING INFRATRUCTUREAUTOMATED DRIVING

CONNECTED VEHICLES

INTELLIGENT TRAFFIC SYSTEM - BIG DATA &

MACHINE LEARNING

INNOVATIVE MODE CONNECTIONS

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

SMART TICKETING

SMART INTERCHANGES

PERSONALISED PUBLIC TRANSPORT

APPS FOR GREENER TRANSPORT

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MA

RK

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& T

EC

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GIC

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TIV

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IMPACT ON EMISSION

Results for transport

Identified clusters and solutions in transport area:Efficient solutions: market and technologicalattractiveness compared with impact on emission

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1st Cluster: Electromobility

1. Interconnected charging networks2. Fast-chargers3. Multiple car charging solutions4. Electric vehicles

2nd Cluster: Smart public transport system

1. Smart interchanges2. High-tech buses3. Hybrid power trains4. Intelligent traffic system - big data & machine learning5. Apps for greener transport

Assumption: mid-term perspective (2025)

Results for heating

4th Cluster: Distributed generation and storage systems

INCREASE IN EFFICIENCY OF

CATALYTIC COMBUSTION

SMART BUILDING ENERGY

MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

DEMAND CONTROLLED AND MULTI ZONED

VENTILATION SYSTEMS

HEAT RECOVERY …

ENERGY POSITIVE WINDOWS

INTEGRATION OF DIFFERENT …

DISTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT

SYSTEM

SMART METERS

SENSIBLE THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE

UNDERGROUND THERMAL ENERGY

STORAGEELECTRIC, THERMAL AND PHASE CHANGE

MATERIALES FOR TES

MULTISOURCE HEATING SOLUTIONS

SOLAR ENERGY

BIOMASS ENERGY

DEEP GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

FUEL FLEXIBLE CHP

BIO MASS\GAS CHP

TRIGENERATION

MICRO CHP

NATURAL GAS HEAT PUMP

GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP

AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP

WATER SOUCE HEAT

PUMP

LOW AND ULTRA LOW HEATING

NETWORKS

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IMPACT ON EMISSION

Identified clusters and solutions in heating area:Efficient solutions: market and technologicalattractiveness compared with impact on emission

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3rd Cluster: Smart buildings

1. Smart building energy management systems2. Energy positive windows3. Smart meters4. Demand controlled and multi zonedventilation systems

4th Cluster: Distributed generation and storage systems

1. Solar energy2. Sensible thermal energy storage3. Distribution management system4. Low and ultra low heating networks5. Fuel flexible CHP

Assumption: mid-term perspective (2025)

Three key areas for supporting and implementing market forces

Results for non-technological enablers

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SOCIETAL AWARENESS AND EDUCATION

REGULATIONS

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES

It has been shown that there is a direct correlation between a higher level of education, and concern about the environment.

The government can play a key role in creating a fertile environment for innovation, by investing in the foundations for innovation and by helping overcome barriers.

More competition in transport and energy empowers the end user. The most important is a gradual increase of competition with market or quasi-market prices which replace traditional monopolies.

General policy recommendations

Engine for clean air: green growth, innovation, education and data

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Green and sustainable growth as an overarching goal of public policy makers. Allows to partially increase the quality of life

Recommendation 1

Development of public databases to reduce the information barrier on the innovators and investors side

Recommendation 4

Sufficient room for markets with smart interventions in the field of design and implementation of innovation

Recommendation 2

Education and social awareness as foundations for successful adoption of green innovations and changes in the pattern of consumption

Recommendation 3

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Potential impact

Potential impact of recommended solutions on the EU-28 economy: a scenario simulation

Scope of simulation: investments in4 recommended clusters

2 Scenarios regarding the pace of market and technological development:

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Smart buildings

ElectromobilitySmart public

transport system

Distributed generation and storage systems

The simulation is based on the survey results regarding the potential impact on emission as well as estimates of external costs of air pollution made by the European Commission and data on air pollutants from the European Environmental Agency.

„Conservative 10% in 2025” Scenario (10% of average market share in 2025)

„Ambitious 25% in 2025” Scenario (25% of average market share in 2025)

Results of the macroeconomic simulation

94

232183

447

272

669

“Conservative 10% in 2025” Scenario “Ambitious 25% in 2025” Scenario

Reduction of external costs (lower bound)Reduction of external costs (middle)Reduction of external costs (upper bound)

0.6%

1.5%1.2%

2.9%

1.7%

4.3%

“Conservative 10% in 2025”

Scenario

“Ambitious 25% in 2025” Scenario

Reduction of external costs (lower bound)Reduction of external costs (middle)Reduction of external costs (upper bound)

18(Net Present Value, aggregate 2018-2025, BLN EUR) (Net Present Value, aggregate 2018-2025, % of GDP in 2018)

According to our simulated conservative scenario, European citizens might gain between2018 and 2025:

183 BLN EUR 1.2% GDP

Innovative ideas

Pollution eatingbuildings

A GPS based Traffic Control System

Smart energy supply for electric vehicles

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The Palazzo Italia in Milan use cement

that absorbspollutants and turnsthem into harmlesssalts. 9000 m² of

active concrete absorbemissions from ~300

gasoline cars

In Singapore Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system is used in managing road

congestion. As a resultvehicle numbers

decreased by ~25,000 during peak hours, whileroad speed increased by

~20%.

Project COFAST develops EV fast charging station

powered by a small natural gas

cogeneration systemwith a high energyefficiency of ~90%

TOP 10 Innovators by InnoEnergy

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Transport Heating

11 Rankings mapping industrial and academic players in the global and European competition for new solutions to clean the air

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Electric vehicles for mass transportation in urban areas

EV charging solutions & infrastructure systems

Natural gas and alternative gasesas transportation fuel

Hydrogen as a transportation fuel

Intelligent traffic systems using big data & machine learning

Smart Building Energy Management systems

Solutions for smart use of electricity for residential heating

Integrated technologies and materials (e.g. combined heat and power, thermal energy storage)

Heat pumps

Building insulation technologiesand materials

Solution for low temperaturę heat and waste heat utilization

TOP 10 Innovators by InnoEnergy

1000+Business and Academicplayers screened

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✓ 60 000 publications analyzed, 25 000 scientific journals from Web of Science, Inspec, Current Contents, and Conference Proceedings

✓ 90+ funding (company investments and research grants) identified from white papers, press releases, university websites

✓ 1100+ collaborations (technology sharing, licensing, M&A deals, R&D collaborations etc.) identified using Eikon, Westlaw, press releases, annual reports

✓ 1400+ products and servicesidentified using Eikon, company websites and third party databases

✓ Financial data for last 5 years from Eikon, annual reports, and SEC filings

✓ 190 000 patents analyzed, from more than 90 patent authorities through Derwent Innovation

TOP 10 Innovators by InnoEnergy

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TOP 10To assess leadership and innovation competences of global players against innovation priorities.

Added value for external clients and public authorities:

Guidance in the strategy formulationMonitoring future trends in technologyTracking competitive landscapeIdentifying potential partnership

Reports will be available for online purchase. Please visit us at:cleanair.innoenergy.com

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Clean Air Challenge: concluding remarks

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Innovations offer a win-win solutions to air pollution as they

might simultaneously support socio-economic welfare and protect quality of life

Impact investing: allocating capital in projects that offer a positive market return and environmental effects

Potential impact of investments in recommended areas isbetween 0.6 – 1.7% of GDP in the EU, for the period 2018-2025

and conservative assumptions.

Broad and regular cooperation between private and public sector, academia, NGO’s is required.

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Thank you!