tsunami preparedness: schools and communities · tsunami preparedness: schools and communities...

Tsunami Preparedness:

Schools and Communities

Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies

Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness

17-19 October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

Laura Kong Director

International Tsunami Information Center

Plan of Talk

Tsunamis – where, when, what

What happened – 2009, 2010, 2011

How to Prepare when there is no time – basic minimums

Examples – many ways, many solutions by all repeatedly

Tsunami Sources in the world

(>2000 events from 1410 BC to 2011)

WDC-MGG/NGDC - ITIC, 2011

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Where do destructive tsunamis occur?

Fewer are distant tsunamis

Most are local/regional tsunamis

All tsunamis

UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Glossary 2008

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


How often do

tsunamis occur?

1900-2011: ~1

fatal tsunami/yr

99% from local tsunamis

WHY IS A TSUNAMI

A HAZARD?

WAVE HEIGHTS GROW IN SHALLOW WATER

Best Case: Quickly Rising Tide

Worst Case: Wall of water with rocks

and debris

Runups > 30 m

April 1, 1946

Aleutian Islands earthquake

Hilo, Hawaii

220,149

Somalia - 430

8,327

16,389

35,262

Myanmar - 100

Tanzania - 15

Seychelles - 3 Kenya - 1

80

Maldives - 108

Casualties Data source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 9 March 2005; TMA

WHY IS A TSUNAMI

A HAZARD?

DANGER CONTINUES FOR MANY HOURS

HIGH FATALITY HAZARD

GLOBAL IMPACT blind to political boundaries

Locally,

arrives in

minutes

Distant,

travels hours

across

Ocean

230,000 deaths - 11 countries

1 million displaced

2 TSUNAMI THREATS

LOCAL / REGIONAL:

• Generated nearby

• Strikes shore quickly (in minutes)

=> NO TIME for official evacuation

Education, Awareness

Every person recognizes / acts immediately

DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE:

• Generated far away, instr detection

• Strikes shore later (2+ hours)

=> TIME for official evacuation

• Widespread Damage

Tsunami Warning Centre, then

People know what to do and where to go - evacuate

July 12, 1993,Japan Sea

May 22, 1960, Chile tsunami in Hilo




2009, 2010, 2011:

Deadly Pacific Tsunamis

29 September 2009

• M8.0 earthquake and local tsunami

– Strong shaking felt > 60 s, possible > 2 min

– Tsunami arrived 10-20 min after EQ

– Observed runup 16-17+ m in Samoa, Am Samoa, Tonga

– Extensive coastal dmg (e.g., structures, reefs destroyed)

– Casualties (191): Samoa (149), Am Samoa (34), Tonga (9)

– Complicated double event – doesn’t matter to public at time

• Early Warning

– Existing international alert system (PTWC): 11 min for 1st

unofficial estimate (16 min for official). Improvements

through intl data sharing discussed since 2007

– Local tsunami alerts require immediate action – Don’t wait!

29 Sept 2009 – South Pacific Tsunami

Samoa–American Samoa–Tonga: 191 deaths

• Pre-event awareness / education saved lives

- For last decade, continuously

- 2006, 2008 Pacific-wide tsunami exercise

- Sept 2010 AS Disaster Preparedness month

• People heeded Natural Warning Signs

- Earthquake shaking a ‘wake-up’ call

- Small receding wave ~10 min after

➠ Tsunami coming

➠ Head inland and to high ground

• 1st large damaging wave 10-20 min after

• Few died returning before it was safe (to help)

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Exercise and Drills • Drill evacuation of schools and communities

• Exercise communications protocols

• Exercise all levels of government

Washington Emergency Management Division

Tsunami Exercise / Drills

Samoa Indonesia, 2005 – 2010+

http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/Topics/GeologicHazardsMapping/Pages/tsunamis.aspx

Tsunami Exercise / Drills

Samoa

http://www.emd.wa.gov/

27 February 2010 - Chile


– Strong shaking felt for several minutes


– 156 tsunami deaths

– Observed runups 10+ m, 50 m splash

– Extensive coastal dmg; destructive waves for 3-4 hours

– ‘Few’ casualties; good building codes

– Coastal residents aware (remember 1960, signage/inundation

maps, education, reminder 2005/2007), but ‘tourists’ were not

• Early Warning

– PTWC Regional (+10 min 1st unofficial, +12 official warning)

– Local tsunami alerts require immediate action

• Heed Natural Warnings – Do not wait for official alerts

• Preparedness, Education, Awareness key for success

11 March 2011 - Japan


– Strong shaking felt for several minutes


– 20,000+ tsunami deaths

– Observed runups 10-25+ m, 40 m up valley, up to 5-6 km inland

– Extensive structural damage, despite good building codes

– Japan known for tsunami preparedness, but tsunami was bigger

(bigger than 1896 / 1933 Sanriku…)

• Early Warning

– JMA National (+3 min initial; +28 min upgraded warning)

• EQ Early Warning worked, but problems with false aftershocks

• GPS off-shore, surface buoy confirms ~15 min after eq

– Local Warnings (sirens) work, but it is not enough

• Heed Natural Warnings – Do not wait for official alerts

• Education, Awareness key for success

– Forecast justify evacuation (Japan, Hawaii, Chile) - How high?

1896 Meiji-Sanriku

1896 Meiji-

Sanriku

92.4%: Drowning

4.4%: Crushed

1.1%: Fire

2%: Unknown

11 March 2011

Cause of Death

1896 Meiji-Sanriku

1896 Meiji-

Sanriku

1923 Kanto EQ

Total deaths: 105,385

Fire: 87.1%

Collapsed house: 10.5%

In the factory: 1.4%

Flow out or buried: 1.0%

Cause of Death -

Past earthquakes

1896 Meiji-Sanriku

1896 Meiji-

Sanriku

1995 Kobe

(Hanshin Awaji)

Death: 6,434

Missing: 3

Crushed: 83.3%

Fire: 12.8%

Unknown: 3.9%:

Cause of Death -

Past earthquakes

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Call for Action

“We cannot stop natural calamities,

but we can and must better equip individuals and communities to

withstand them.”

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

26 December 2004

230,000 dead, 500,000 injured, 1 million displaced, $8 billion in damages

“Anticipating, educating and informing are the keys to

reducing the deadly affect of such natural disasters.

Unfortunately such activities have not been given priority.”

UNESCO Director-General, Koïchiro Matsuura, 3 January 2005

Introduction

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Tsunami Awareness

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


TWC Natl / Provincial

/Local Govt

Country Alert System

Public

Emerg Alert System & Mass Media

EQ Tsunami

ITIC, SeismicReady Consulting 2009, after Japan Cabinet Office 2005

TSUNAMI WARNING!

EVACUATE

End-to-End Tsunami Warning

Intl / Natl




Key Strategies

Early Warning System Saves Lives

Proper Instruments detect early

Warning informs

Awareness enables

Preparedness guides

Planning means faster response

Mitigation Countermeasures reduce

impact

Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use

Stakeholder Coordination facilitates

High-level Advocacy sustains

Japan

ADRC

Tsunami Public Awareness - Localization

Know what to do:

Earthquake 1st, then tsunami Samoa

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Tsunami Evacuation Map

“Local tsunami evacuation maps developed from inundation

modeling, mapping, and community input”

event

Abredeen, Washington

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Evacuation Problems?

Issues:

• No high ground exists

• No time to go inland to

high ground

• Special needs populations

Solutions:

• Vertical evacuation

Seaside, Oregon

Considering Vertical Evacuation?

If … No High Ground, No Time, Traffic

Designating tsunami-safe structures

Engineering response to tsunami loading

Vertical evacuation, Waikiki, Hawaii, 1994

How high is high enough?

• Hard countermeasures

• Soft countermeasures

• Human response?

Minami Sanriku

Rikuzen Takata

How high is high enough? Vertical Evacuation

Kamaishi

How to Prepare – basic minimums

Tsunami are no-notice, rapidly evolving hazards; there will be no time to discuss /deliberate, therefore you must be ready.

Pre-planning – agencies/responders, businesses, schools, families, individuals

Practiced plans to ensure familiarity (no panic)

Response starts with Preparedness

Early

Warning

Awareness &

education

Actions in

response to the

warnings:

Warning

Dissemination &

Evacuation

Contingency

Plans

Mitigation

Search &

Rescue

Response to the

disaster

Disaster

Preparedness

Reconstruction &

Rehabilitation

Humanitarian

Affairs

Planning &

regulations

Technical

Measures

Disaster Risk Reduction

Response

Evacuation

Focus on SOP

Warning People

Priorities:

•Local Tsunamis – 1 hr or less

•How will you know – Natural Warnings

•What will you do? – Evacuation Map, Vertical

Evacuation in strong structures




The Way Forward – Being Practical

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Communicating Alerts

Tsunami Warning Information

Natural Tsunami Warnings

• Strong coastal earthquake shaking

• Rapid sea level changes

• Roaring sound

Official Information

• Federal, State, Local govt

• Important for distant tsunamis

Informal Information

• Friends, neighbors, relatives

• Media, SMS, social networks…

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


How to Improve Tsunami

Response • Pre-event public education/outreach workshops,

town meetings, focus groups, etc…

– Know tsunami natural warning signs

– Have evacuation maps

– Know evacuation routes/evacuation assembly areas

– Know community support network

– Have family plan and preparedness kit

– Know response for local and distant tsunamis

– Know community warning system

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


Local

Government

Individuals

and

Household School Community

Community Preparedness

Key Stakeholders - Community Preparedness

Indonesian

Institute of

Science

Irina-lipi©

Experiments (Japan PARI, 2010)

Inundation height is about 50cm Inundation speed is about 4.0m/s

Preliminary Results: Probability of falling or sliding

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

浸水深(m )

確率

転倒等確率(男性）

転倒等確率（女性）

転倒率（男性）

転倒率・近似曲線（男性）転倒率・近似曲線（女性）

Tsunami Warning in Japan * Tsunami Height is 50cm

Pro

bab

ility

of

falli

ng

or

slid

ing

Inundation depth (m)

Men

Women

For falling only (men)

sliding

falling

Arikawa, Japan PARI, 2010

children

Developing Community Resiliency

Identify a Tsunami Champion

Locally connected, Passionate

Advocate for safety

Communication, Organizing

Volunteer-raising Seaside, OR Tsunami

Outreach Coord

Become TsunamiReady (USA)

• Community-based decisions

• Receive / respond to warnings - Plans

• Education – start in schools

• Evacuation Maps, Signag

• Exercises

Drill – Common messages

Indonesia USA - Washington

Thailand, USA (Hawaii) Chile

UNESCO/IOC-NOAA


ADVICE

•Be Prepared. Be Aware. Be educated.

– Hope for the best, but plan for the worst

– Don’t delay response

•Engineer Appropriately. Codes and Enforcement

– Primary is Life Safety

– Design for community resilience

– Design for economic recovery

•Educate and Train – everyone

– Increase public awareness of threat /required response

– Develop effective warning systems and evacuation plans

– Practice, practice, practice.

Thank You




Laura Kong Director


tsunami preparedness: schools and communities · tsunami preparedness: schools and communities...

Documents