trt trasporti e territorio fta seminar seville/spain - slide 1 steps project scenarios for transport...
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TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 1
STEPs Project STEPs Project Scenarios for Transport Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and and Energy Supply and
their their Potential EffectsPotential Effects
Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task
1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action +
Additional Research
Angelo Martino – [email protected]
Davide Fiorello - [email protected]
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 2
Objectives
STEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effects
(January 2004 – July 2006)
Funded by EC (6th Framework Programme Research)
• To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply in Europe
• To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supply
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 3
Policy questions addressed
STEPs has attempted to answer questions such as…
• What are viable scenarios regarding transport and energy?
• Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets?
• What can and should decision makers take along in their long-term considerations?
• To what degree can technological progress contribute? And demand management?
• What are transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns? And on non-transport impacts?
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 4
The scenarios matrix
Columns: policy approach
No policies
Business as Usual
Demand regulation
Technology investment
Low oil price growth
A-1 A0 A1 A2
High oil price growth
B-1 B0 B1 B2
Rows : low/high oil price growth
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 5
The simulation modelsEUROPEAN MODELS
REGIONAL LAND-USE AND
TRANSPORT MODELS
Edinburgh Dortmund Helsinki South Tyrol Brussels
POLES (analysing the world energy market, transport and socio-economic interconnections)
ASTRA (focused on linkages between transport, economy and environment)
SASI (concerning the impacts of transport on socio-economic development)
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 6
POLES-ASTRA modelling loop
From oil price assumptions to fuel price development
Oil pricedevelopment (2005 – 2030)
Pure fuel pricedevelopment (2005 – 2030)
Low oil price growth
+2% p.a. +1% p.a.
High oil price growth
+7% p.a. +4% p.a.
POLES ASTRA
Transport costs – transport demand
Car fleet – Fuel price development
POLES ASTRA
Transport costs – transport demand
Car fleet – Fuel price development
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 7
Main results
Transport demand continues to grow steadily and significantly
Freight demand growth exceeds the economic growth measured in terms of GDP: i.e. no decoupling
Car ownership is growing but with a decreasing growth rate.
Energy consumption is decreasing (thanks to road vehicle fleet renewal)
CO2 emissions are stable or slightly increasing
Average accessibility of European regions is increasing (thanks to Trans-European Networks)
No policies scenario results
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 8
Transport demand is not significantly affected
Car and road freight continue to be the main modes
Total energy consumption and polluting emissions are substantially unchanged
Growth of GDP and employment is slightly reduced, (base trend of the reference scenario not significantly changed)
Average accessibility for European passengers and freight is reduced
Low oil price growth
Business-as-Usual scenario results
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 9
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex
(2
00
5 =
10
0)
Reference High oil price
Transport variablesTransport variables
High oil prices scenario resultsASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States)
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 10
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex
(2
00
5 =
10
0)
NOx - Reference NOx - High oil pricePM - Reference PM - High oil price
Environment variablesEnvironment variables
High oil prices scenario resultsDortmund model: polluting emissions
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 11
100
104
108
112
116
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex
(2
00
5 =
10
0)
Reference High oil price
Social and economic variablesSocial and economic variables
High oil prices scenario resultsASTRA model: Employment (EU25 Member States)
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 12
Main results
Pressure for improving efficiency and using alternative sources of energy
Slight reduction of total mobility
Some shift to non-road modes
Passenger demand more elastic than freight demand (reduction in car ownership)
Polluting emissions further decreased (locally and CO2)
GDP and employment growth only slightly reduced
Accessibility not dramatically damaged
High oil prices scenario results
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 13
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex
(2
00
5 =
10
0)
Reference High oil price
Technology investments Demand regulation
ASTRA model: Passengers-km (EU25 Member States)
Transport variablesTransport variables
The effects of policy leverages
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 14
POLES model: Share of energy from renewable sources
Energy variablesEnergy variables
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sh
are
of
ren
ewab
les
Reference High oil price
Technology investments Demand regulation
The effects of policy leverages
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 15
50
75
100
125
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex
(2
00
5 =
10
0)
Reference High oil price
Technology investments Demand regulation
Environment variables (2005 – 2030)Environment variables (2005 – 2030)
The effects of policy leverages ASTRA model: CO2 emissions (EU25 Member States)
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 16
100
105
110
115
120
125
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ind
ex (
2005
=10
0)
Reference High oil price
Technology investments Demand regulation
Social and economic variablesSocial and economic variables
ASTRA model: Employment (25 EU Member States)
The effects of policy leverages
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 17
Technology investment:
neutral impact on economic development
additional investments, acceleration of fleet renewal
positive development of energy consumption
reduction of polluting emissions and CO2
The effects of policy leverages
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 18
Demand regulation:
transport demand slow down
further reduction of polluting emissions and CO2
road transport sector is penalised
negative impact on the economy (but still growing significantly)
reduced accessibility of regions
The effects of policy leverages
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 19
Conclusions– Scarcity of oil could accelerate the development
and take up of alternative fuel technologies,
– Investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce unitary energy consumption but will only reduce yearly CO2 emissions after a time lag of about 15 years,
– Some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion.
– Demand regulation measures could significantly impact on people’s lifestyles and impose severe constraints on personal mobility
TRT Trasporti e TerritorioFTA Seminar Seville/Spain - Slide 20
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
Angelo Martino – [email protected]
Davide Fiorello - [email protected]