trends in international and regional passenger travel inter-regional travel and local development...
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Trends in International and Regional Passenger
Travel
Inter-Regional Travel and Local Development
Alan E. Pisarski
What we are going to talk about
• Some definitions of Tourism and Tourists
• World Tourism Trends
• World Travel and the US
• US Domestic Tourism
• Future Growth Factors
• Impacts
What is a tourist?
UN/WTO definition
persons
traveling outside their usual environment
for
less than a year
for
activities not remunerated at the destination
Say that again!
• Outside usual environment - not local
• Less than one year - not an immigrant
• Unremunerated - not a traveling worker
• Think of link to balance of Payments
Tourists are a special case of Travelers
• Excludes Refugees, Nomads, Diplomats
• Tourists are overnight visitors
• Visitors include overnight and same-day visitors
• We are actually interested in Visitors
WORLD TOURISM IS BIG!
• Biggest Industry in the World? Probably!
• Tremendous Growth > 4%/year
2020 International Visitors - 1.6 Billion
2020 International Receipts - $2 Trillion
• YET TRIVIAL NEXT TO DOMESTIC
World Trends - WTO millions of international visitors
1995 2000 2010 2020
America 111 131 195 285E. Asia 81 104 231 438Europe 334 386 527 717Mid E. 13 19 37 69Africa 20 26 46 75
World 564 672 1047 1602
US is dominant destination in World
• # 1 in Foreign receipts, 16% of world
• # 2 or 3 in Number of Visitors
• France and Spain are other Leaders
• Approaching 50 million Visitors
• Approaching $100 billion in Receipts
Long Term US Visitor Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mill
ion
s o
f V
isit
ors
OVERSEAS
CANADA
MEXICO
Big Payoffs from Foreign Visitors
• Trade surplus since ‘89; peaked at $26 b in ‘96
• Largest service export, $91 billion in revenues ‘98
• Ahead of agriculture, chemicals and vehicles
• 15.4 nights and $1569 in spending per overseas visitor (think $100/day)
Balance of Payments Trends
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
TRAVEL RECEIPTS
TRANSPORT RECEIPTS
TRAVEL PAYMENTS
TRANSPORT PAYMENTS
1998 VISITOR SHARES
Canada28%
Mexico20%
Brazil2%
All Others24%
Japan11%
United Kingdom
9%
France2%
Germany4%
Overseas visitor use our transport system
% USE*TAXI 41PRIVATE AUTO 27RENTED AUTO 36AIRLINE 28URBAN TRANSIT 20INTERCITY BUS 11INTERCITY RAIL 8* Multiple selections
$200 per visitor source: TI
TRIP PURPOSES COMPARED
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Int'l domestic
Study
Conf/Conv
VFR
Leisure
Business
ATS BASIC DATA-BTS
RESIDENTS 1977 1995 %CHG% TRAVELING HH 72 80 10.8TRIPS/HH 4.1 5.5 34.1TRIPS/TRAVELING HH 5.7 6.9 21.1
TRIPS/CAP 2.4 4 66.7TRIPS/TRAVELER 4 4.8 20MILES PER TRAVELER 2836 3943 39MILES PER TRIP 709 827 16.6
THE MODES HAVE DIFFERENT PURPOSES
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%60%
70%80%
90%100%
AL
L
PU
V
AIR
BU
S
CH
AR
TE
R
TR
AIN
BUSINESS VISIT FRIENDS/ RELATIVES
LEISURE TRAVEL PERSONAL BUSINESS
Business is a different modal world
PRIVATE VEHICLE USE BY DISTANCE FOR MAIN PURPOSES
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<THAN 300 300-495 500-999 10000-1999 20000+
BUSINESS
VFR
LEISURE
PERSONAL BUSINESS
MODES HAVE DIFFERENT DISTANCE ROLES
MEANS OF TRANSPORT BY ROUND TRIP DISTANCE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LE
SS
TH
AN
300
MIL
ES
300-
499
MIL
ES
500-
999
MIL
ES
1,00
0-1,
999
MIL
ES
2,00
0P
LU
SM
ILE
S
OTHER
AIR
PERSONALVEHICLE
DISTANCES DON’T VARY MUCH BY PURPOSE
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Business
VFR Leisure PB
1000+
500 to 999
250 to 499
100 to 249
TRIPS & DISTANCE
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
%TRIPS
%MILES
2,000 PLUS MILES
1,000-1,999 MILES
500-999 MILES
300-499 MILES
LESS THAN 300 MILES
PERCENT TRIPS VS PERCENT MILES
BY DISTANCE RANGE
WOMEN STILL TRAVEL LESS
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2B
usin
ess
Visi
tFr
/Rel
s
Leis
ure
Per
s.
Bus
. All
m/f tripratio
m/fmiles ratio
Rates of Growth Approx Equal at About 60% but,Black, Hispanic Rate of 1995 Still Below
White Rate of 1997
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
1977 1995
BLACKHISPANIC
WHITE
THE OLDER FOLKS LEADTRIPS/CAPITA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
< 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
1977 1995
Revenue per psgr mile trends(cents/psgr mile)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
AIR COACH ICTY RAIL ICTY BUS
WHERE IS THE GROWTH IN PASSENGER MILES?
(Billions of Psgr miles)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
AIR RAIL BUS
Growth in long distance travel and related factors - BTS
1977-1995
1019
33 34 38
116
0
20
40
60
80
100
120H
WY
MIL
ES
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N
INC
OM
E
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
EM
PL
OY
ME
NT
TR
AV
EL
%
A Sense of Scale
• Int’l: 15 days (est) x 50 million
• Domestic: 4 trips x 4.3 days x 275 million
• Local: 4 trips x 365 days x 275 million
CALIFORNIA ANNUAL VISITOR FLOWS - 95BTS
CALIFORNIA
38 Million@ 5.1 days193vdays
65 Million@ 3.1 days
24 Million@ 7.2 days173 days
OVERSEAS VISITORS MAIN POINTS OF ENTRY
N.Y.19%
MIAMI14%
L.A.11%HON
9%
ALL OTH27%
CHI5%
ORLANDO5%
GUAM5%
SANFRAN5%
California’s Tourism Role
• 20th in per capita travel
• #1 in intrastate travel
• #1 in outbound travel
• #2 in inbound travel
• #39 in thru travel
• # 1 in total domestic long distance travel
• #2 in visits by Overseas visitors
What’s next?
• Major world destination; visitors & revs.
• High travel propensity industrial structure
• Highly dispersed population
• High travel propensity population – age– discretionary income & time– linkages to world