trends in agricultural trade

Trade & Agriculture Directorate 1

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Trends in Agricultural TradeTrends in Agricultural Trade

Peter S LiapisTrade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010


Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)

Includes Intra EU

Excludes Intra EU


Total Merchandise Export Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008)(1995-2008)

Includes Intra EU

Excludes Intra EU


Agriculture share of total merchandise Agriculture share of total merchandise tradetrade


Agricultural exports by Income GroupAgricultural exports by Income Group


Share of Agricultural Exports by Income Share of Agricultural Exports by Income GroupGroup


Agricultural trade is increasingly South-Agricultural trade is increasingly South-SouthSouth


Share of North-North trade is diminishing Share of North-North trade is diminishing


What Agricultural Products are Being Exported?


ShareShare of Agricultural Exports by Typeof Agricultural Exports by Type


Income Level and Share of Income Level and Share of Agricultural Exports Agricultural Exports

46.6 51.0

22.6 19.66.8 7.4

23.9 22.0

60.6 59.2

20.4 21.1 13.3 14.55.7 5.2

29.7 36.3 34.1 28.415.1 13.0 21.1 22.2

25.3 30.1 28.1 30.117.6 17.3

29.0 22.5

6.4 11.3 15.3 16.4 10.1 16.1

68.356.2

High income OECD

High incomeNon OECD

Upper middle income

Lower middle income

Low income

95-97 06-08

Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products

95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08


Income Level and Share of Income Level and Share of Agricultural Imports Agricultural Imports

36.944.7

24.7 21.914.8 17.4

23.616.0

50.9 52.3

22.1 19.310.3

18.316.710.1

44.7 45.9

22.9 22.47.3

21.725.210.0

28.1 27.9 33.4 31.2

3.9

35.434.6

5.5

36.2 33.8 31.7 29.0

2.6

32.729.6

4.4

Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products

95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08 95-97 06-08

High income OECD

High incomeNon OECD

Upper middle income

Lower middle income

Low income


Top Agricultural Exporters Top Agricultural Exporters

19951995 20082008


Top Agricultural Importers Top Agricultural Importers

2008200819951995


Agricultural Imports share of GDPAgricultural Imports share of GDP

Average 1995-97Average 1995-97 Average 2006-08Average 2006-08


Key macroeconomic assumptionsKey macroeconomic assumptions

• 2009 global economic recession

• 2010 global economic recovery

• 2% annual inflation in OECD; higher in BRICs

• stronger US dollar

• stable policy regime


• Agriculture more resilient to global economic crisis

• Real prices to remain at or above 1997-2006 levels

• Production increases in the 10 to 40% range

• Developing countries driving demand and export growth

• Expansion of biofuels – largely driven by mandates

Main outlook messagesMain outlook messages


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Wheat Coarse grains

Rice Oilseed Veget. Oil

Raw sugar

Beef (pacific)

Pigmeat (pacific)

Butter SMP Crude oil

Average 2007-08 Average 2009-18

Real prices at or above historical levelsReal prices at or above historical levels

% change relative to 1997-2006 average


0

10

20

30

40

50

Wh

ea

t

Co

ars

e g

rain

s

Ric

e

Oils

ee

ds

Oilm

ea

ls

Ve

ge

t. O

ils

Su

ga

r

Be

ef

Pig

me

at

po

ult

ry

Bu

tte

r

Ch

ee

se

WM

P

SM

P

%

Steady growth of global productionSteady growth of global productionProduction Growth from 2006-08 average to 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

Wh

ea

t

Co

ars

e g

rain

s

Ric

e

Oils

ee

ds

Oilm

ea

ls

Ve

ge

t. O

ils

Su

ga

r

Be

ef

Pig

me

at

po

ult

ry

Bu

tte

r

Ch

ee

se

WM

P

SM

P

%

Growth from 2008 to 2018Growth realised until 2008


Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018

Output Growth is largest in non-OECD area


Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018Demand growth is largest in non-OECD area


0

5

10

15

20

25

2006-08

2018 2006-08

2018 2006-08

2018 2006-08

2018

Butter Cheese SMP WMP

mill

ion

ton

nes

OECD non-OECD

Outlook for dairy products consumption Outlook for dairy products consumption


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wheat Coarse grains

Oilseeds Sugar Pigmeat Poultry SMP

%

OECD Non-OECD World

ExportExport growth in developing countries growth in developing countries

Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018


Food remains the main use for wheat …Food remains the main use for wheat …

+ 34 Mt

0 100 200 300 400 500

2006-08

2018

2006-08

2018

Million tonnes

Food useFeed useBiofuelsOther

Non

-O

ECD

Non

-O

ECD

OEC

D

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2006-08

2018

Wor

ld


……while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand upwhile feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up

+ 50 Mt

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2006-08

2018

2006-08

2018

Million tonnes

Food useFeed useBiofuelsOther

Non

-O

ECD

Non

-O

ECD

OEC

D

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2006-08

2018

Wor

ld


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2006-08

2018

2006-08

2018

2006-08

2018

Million tonnes

non-biofuel use

biofuel useIndo

nesi

aU

SAEU

+ 90 Mt

Biodiesel increasingly important Biodiesel increasingly important demand driver for vegetable oildemand driver for vegetable oil


Summing Up Future ProspectsSumming Up Future Prospects …

• Global demand has been strong, with

… higher growth outside the OECD area, and

… for higher value food and non-food products.• Increased price volatility is expected. • The impact of the economic crisis is unclear,

… as are future policy directions.


Rely on objective information & analysis

Provide humanitarian aid and short-term support to increase output in developing countries

Keep import and export markets open; conclude ambitious DDA agreement

Review/reform biofuel support policies

Monitor/address balance of payments situation

Policy responses to Food Security ConcernsPolicy responses to Food Security Concerns


Improve the purchasing power of the poor in developing countries – economy wide growth is needed to contribute to poverty reduction

Improve the productivity of global agriculture, particularly in developing countries - education, infrastructure, research and development, technology transfer and innovation are essential

Medium & long term policy responses…Medium & long term policy responses…


Short term measures are vital to address food security today, but medium & long term actions are also needed

More open markets are necessary, but insufficient

An increased, long term, sustained commitment to development, both within and outside agriculture, is essential

ConclusionConclusion


• The fundamental factor is – supply response– Price transmission to local markets

– Technological progress

– Need to address climate change/water availability/sustainability

• Food affordability (poverty reduction) is the key food security issue

ConclusionConclusion


Thank You

Trade and Agriculture DirectorateTrade and Agriculture Directorate

www.oecd.org/agriculturewww.oecd.org/agriculture

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