Trends and Laws

EMC 165: Computer & Network EngineeringSpring 2005

Profs. Chuah & Kishore

Last Time/Today

• Last time, we…

• Today, we will review some business and technology trends related to computer and network engineering.

• We will also examine some “laws” describing growth in this industry.

Penetration Rates

What is it?

• Penetration rate of a technology (say cell phones or computers, etc) measures the number of these units per number of inhabitants (some times per number of households).

• Measurements are made at regularly and give indication of the growth rate of a technology.

Penetration Rate of Several Key 20th Century Technologies

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

What these curves show

• Television experienced rapid surge in sales in the 50’s. (Due in part to increase in TV production post WWII)

• VCR Sales saw similar surge in 80’s.

• In contrast, some other communication technologies took far longer to spread.

• For example, sales of radio initially held back due to technological complexity of crystal sets and onset of Great Depression. Today there are more radio sets than people in the U.S.

What these curve show (Cont’d)

• Telephones have been around since 1877 but only took off after WWII.

• Vehicles (not shown in curve) experienced steady growth but really took off after 1945.

• Cable TV saw slow diffusion from 60’s to 80’s, when cables were being laid out. Only after sufficient cable equipment deployment did subscription growth occur.

What these curves show (Cont’d)

• Flood of internet users since early 90’s show sharp growth.

• It remains to see where the penetration rate will level off. Whether it will level off at roughly 2/3, like Cable TV, or over 90%, like TV.

• How does Internet Usage in U.S. compare to the rest of the world?

Internet Usage

• As of September 30, 2004 the number of Internet users equal 812,931,592. Average penetration rate is12.7 %.

• Asia continues to lead in the number of surfers with 257,898,314 people, equivalent to 31.7% of the world total. Europe comes next with 230,886,424 surfers, 28.4% of the total. Northern America is third with 222,165,659 Internet users, a 27.3% of the total.

• Remaining 12.6% is represented by 55,930,974 users in Latin America, plus 17,325,900 users in the Middle East, 15,787,221 users in Oceania, and 12,937,100 surfers in Africa.

• Internet growth to date since the year 2000 has been 125.2%, or about 25% per year. At this rate, Internet will hit one billion users in 2005.

TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE

# Country or RegionPenetration

(% Population)Internet Users

Latest DataPopulation( 2004 Est. )

Source and Dateof Latest Data

1 Sweden 74.6 % 6,722,576 9,010,700 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

2 Hong Kong 72.5 % 4,878,713 6,727,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

3 United States 68.8 % 201,661,159 293,271,500 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

4 Iceland 66.6 % 195,000 292,800 ITU - Dec./03

5 Netherlands 66.5 % 10,806,328 16,254,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

6 Australia 65.9 % 13,359,821 20,275,700 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

7 Canada 64.2 % 20,450,000 31,846,900 C.I.Almanac - Dec/03

8 Switzerland 63.5 % 4,432,190 7,433,000 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

9 Denmark 62.5 % 3,375,850 5,397,600 Nielsen//NR June/02

10 Korea, (South) 62.4 % 30,670,000 49,131,700 KRNIC - July/04

11 Singapore 61.0 % 2,135,000 3,499,500 ITU - Sept/04

12 United Kingdom 58.5 % 34,874,469 59,595,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04

13 Liechtenstein 57.6 % 20,000 34,700 CIA - Dec/02

14 Germany 57.1 % 47,182,668 82,633,200 Nielsen//NR July/04

15 Bermuda 54.2 % 34,500 63,600 ITU - Dec/03

16 Japan 52.2 % 66,548,060 127,853,600 Nielsen//NR July/04

17 Croatia 52.1 % 2,318,240 4,453,700 ITU - Sept/04

18 New Zealand 52.0 % 2,110,000 4,059,900 ITU - Dec/03

17 Taiwan 51.1 % 11,602,523 22,689,300 Nielsen//NR June/01

20 Faroe Islands 50.9 % 25,000 49,100 CIA - Dec/02

21 Finland 50.7 % 2,650,000 5,231,900 ITU - Dec/02

22 Norway 50.0 % 2,288,000 4,577,500 C.I.Almanac - Dec/03

TOP 22 in Penetration 62.1 % 468,840,669 754,384,600 IWS - Sept.30/04

Rest of the World 6.1 % 344,090,923 5,582,313,287 IWS - Sept.30/04

TotalWorld - Users 12.7 % 812,931,592 6,390,147,487 IWS - Sept.30/04

How to measure Internet Usage?

• What is an internet user? There are some disagreements on how to answer this seemingly simple question.

• The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) says an internet user as someone aged 2 years old and above, who went online in the past 30 days.

• US Department of Commerce defines internet users as those 3 years or older who 'currently use' the internet.

• Other market researchers have there own definitions.

Measuring Internet Usage (Cont’d)

• Data showed in earlier slide defines an Internet User as anyone currently in capacity to use the Internet, i.e., an Internet User has:

(1) Access to an Internet connection point, and (2) The basic knowledge required to use the technology.

• Note: In many Third World countries one same Internet connection may be shared by many individual users.

• Result: Internet users might outnumber amount of Internet access subscribers and also outnumber telephone lines available in the country.

TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS

# Country or RegionInternet Users

Latest DataPopulation

( 2004 Est. )Internet

PenetrationSource of

Latest Data% of World

Usage / Users

1 United States 201,661,159 293,271,500 68.8 % Nielsen//NR July/04 24.8 %

2 China 87,000,000 1,288,307,100 6.8 % CNNIC June/04 10.7 %

3 Japan 66,763,838 127,853,600 52.2 % Nielsen//NR July/04 8.2 %

4 Germany 47,182,668 82,633,200 57.1 % Nielsen//NR July/04 5.8 %

5 United Kingdom 34,874,469 59,595,900 58.5 % Nielsen//NR July/04 4.3 %

6 South Korea 30,670,000 49,131,700 62.4 % KRNIC June/04 3.8 %

7 Italy 28,610,000 57,987,100 49.3 % C+I+A Dec/03 3.5 %

8 France 24,352,522 60,011,200 40.6 % Nielsen//NR July/04 3.0 %

9 Canada 20,450,000 31,846,900 64.2 % C+I+A Dec/03 2.5 %

10 Brazil 19,311,854 179,383,500 10.8 % Nielsen//NR July/04 2.4 %

TOP TEN COUNTRIES 560,876,470 2,230,021,700 25.2 % IWS - Sept.30/04 69.0 %

Rest of the World 252,055,122 4,160,125,787 6.1 % IWS - Sept.30/04 31.0 %

Totals 812,931,592 6,390,147,487 12.7 % IWS - Sept.30/04 100.0 %

Source for Previous Two Tables

• http://www.internetworldstats.com/top25.htm

• http://www.internetworldstats.com/top10.htm

• Data was updated 9/04.

How many of Internet Users have Broadband Access?

• First, What is broadband?• In old days, internet access strictly mean dial-up.• Dial-up: phone line becomes restrict for internet use;

only internet data can be transported on this line.• Further, dial-up data rates range from 14.4 kbps (kilo bits

per second) to 56.6 kpbs.

• Note: kilo = 1000, mega = 1000000, etc.

More on Broadband

• Broadband technologies (like DSL, Cable Modem, etc.) offer much higher data rates, upto hundreds of kbps to several Mbps (mega bits per second).

• They not only give high-speed data access to the internet but may also bundle together voice (e.g,, DSL), video (e.g., cable modem), etc.

• Other forms of broadband (aka wideband) data access: T1, T2, ISDN, wireless methods, etc.

Some US Broadband Trends

• US has highest number of total broadband users in the world, roughly 40% in 2002.

• Within the US the highest broadband penetration is in metropolitan locations (San Diego, Boston, NYC, Providence (RI), Kansas City, Detroit, etc.).

• State-wise, highest residential broadband penetration rate is in Hawaii. Lowest in Southeast states and Rocky Mountain states.

US Broadband Trends/Facts

• US contains majority of ecommerce websites, world’s internet hosts, email boxes, on-line buyers, and internet users (2003).

• US online sales at some 144 billion dollars for 2004, a 14 percent annual growth rate and about 7% of total retail sales in US.

• Some projections that US online sales will hit $316 billion by 2010: travel ($119 billion), home products ($43 billion), apparel ($28 billion), etc.

Broadband Cost Comparison

PC Penetration Rates

• The number of PCs in-use surpassed 500M units in 2000 and will reach 1.17B units by year-end 2008.

• Cumulative PC sales topped 1B units in 2002 and will top 2B in 2008.

• PCs in-use reached nearly 206M in the U.S. in 2002 and will surpass 269M in 2008.

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PCs in UseM

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Digital Divide

• With all this penetration of digital technology, we should keep in mind disparity in access due to income.

• This disparity is known as the digital divide.

• Following charts show demonstrate statistics for digital divide in Canada.

Digital Divide in Canada

Data for 2000Source: http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/56F0009XIE/56F0009XIE.pdf

Digital Divide in Canada (Cont’d)

Digital divide closes as curves move closer to black curve over time.

Cellular Penetration Rates

• China has the largest number of cellular users, with a penetration of roughly 24%.

• U.S. is second with a penetration rate of roughly 60%.

• The total number of US cellular subscriber can be tracked: www.wow-com.com.

• As of 11/16/04, there are 171,622,877 cellular subscribers in the US.

European Cellular Rates

• In Europe, cellular penetration ranges from 70% to 100%.

• In fact, in Sweden, the cellular penetration rate is higher 100%. This is because people often have multiple phones (personal and work use).

• Highest penetration rates in Europe are in the Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Norway, etc).

More on Cellular Penetration

• South Korea and Singapore have penetration rates in the 70%-80% range.

• Japan has penetration rates in the 80%-90% range.

• If you are interested in learning coverage of different cellular providers in various countries, check out: www.cellular-news.com/coverage

Some Technology “Laws”

There are Laws and then there are “Laws.”

• In Engineering there are REAL laws, that describe how things operate:

– Ohm’s Law– Kirchoff’s Law– Shannon’s Law– Law of Therodynamics, etc.

• Then there are “laws” which are actually folksy rules of thumb. We review a few in the next few slides.

Moore’s Law

• Mother of all Engineering “Laws.” • Suggested in an Intel Corp. paper by Gordon E. Moore

38 years ago. (Never used the word law.)

• Predicts annual doubling of the number of transistors that could be fabricated on a semiconductor chip.

• Paper titled “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits.”

Moore’s Law: What does it mean?

First, what is a transistor?– We don’t mean a radio.– A transistor is a small electronic device that can

cause changes in a large electrical output signal by small changes in a small input signal. 

– A weak input signal can be amplified (made stronger) by a transistor.  Signals can also be switched.

– For example, very weak radio signals in the air can be picked up by a wire antenna and processed by transistor amplifiers until they are strong enough to be heard by the human ear.

More on Transistor

• A transistor has three terminals.

• In a three terminal device we can control electric current or voltage between two of the terminals by applying an electric current or voltage to the third terminal.

• With the three-terminal transistor we can make an electric switch, which can be controlled by another electrical switch.

• By cascading these switches (switches that control switches that control switches, etc.) we can build up very complicated logic circuits.

Picture of First Transistor

Transistor History

• Previous picture is of workbench of John Bardeen and Walter Brattain at Bell Labs.

• They were supposed to be doing fundamental research about crystal surfaces; experimental results had not been very good and there was a rumor that their boss, William Shockley, came near to canceling the project. 

• In 1947, working alone, they switched to using tremendously pure materials.  It dawned on them that they could build the circuit in the picture. It was a working amplifier! 

• John and Walter submitted a patent for the first working point contact transistor. 

More on Transistor History

• Shockley was furious and took their work and invented the junction transistor and submitted a patent for it 9 days later.

• The three shared a Nobel Prize.

• Bardeen and Brattain continued in research (and Bardeen later won another Nobel).

• Shockley quit to start a semiconductor company in Palo Alto. It folded.

• Staff of Shockley’s company went on to invent the integrated circuit (the "chip") and to found Intel Corporation.

More on Transistor History (Cont’d)

• By 60’s and 70’s, all important computers used transistors

for logic (compute binary operations). Later they were used in memory chips.

• As semiconductor technology improved, transistors became faster, cheaper, and reliable.

• In 1959, a huge breakthrough took place: invention of the integrated circuit--the ability to organize numerous transistors and other electronic components on a silicon wafer--complete with wiring.

• Now microprocessors are comprised of millions of transistors--a popular PC chip, for example, has 3.5 million transistors.

Returning to Moore’s Law

• Gordon E. Moore was a director of research and development labs at the Fairchild Semiconductor Division of Fairchild Camera and Instrument Corp.

• Moore’s article noted the historical trend in fabricating transistors (then rather brief).

• Observed that no technical barriers existed to further improvements and reasoned that the trend (annual doubling) would continue for at least another decade.

• Result would be chip transistor count of 65,000.

How has Moore’s Law held up?

• Depends who you ask.

• Intel shows curves (on its website for example) that corroborate Moore’s statement that “there is an exponential growth in the number of transistors/integrated circuit.”

• They show curves to validate these claims.

Intel’s Moore Law

Others Disagree

• IEEE Spectrum reported that the annual doubling proposed by Moore has not held up.

• In early 70’s doubling occurred every 17 months, in early 80’s every 22 months, in early 90’s every 32 months.

• Recently, doubling occurs every 22-24 months.

Others Disagree (Cont’d)

Final Words on Moore’s Law

• Regardless, almost exponential growth has been seen.

• How long will it continue?

• Basically, semiconductor manufacturers will keep adding elements to their circuitry until it no longer pays to add more (i.e., all this is driven by economics).

• Some predict this may be for another 15 years or so.

Machrone’s Law

• In 1984, PC Magazine columnist Bill Machrone stated that “PC you want to buy will always be $5000.”

• At the time, he observed this to be true from the outset of personal computers (roughly 1976), when a fully configured Altair or Radio Shack machine would cost you $5000.

• For 15 years, the law was pretty solid.

• Number dropped to $3000 in early 90’s and held till 2000. Now an okay machine costs well under $1000, although fully loaded one still runs $2000-$3000.

Computer Prices over the Years

Metcalfe’s Law

• Robert Metcalfe is the inventor of the Ethernet Standard and founder of 3Com Corp.

• In a 1993 Forbes Magazine article, the “Metcalfe Law” was dubbed by author G. Gilder.

• It asserts: value of a network grows as the square of the number of its users.

• Having the only telephone in the world would be of zero value, but this value increases for each new telephone it can call.

Metcalfe’s Law (Cont’d)

• Unlike previous laws, Metcalfe’s law cannot be quantified.

• Value of a network (called utility by economists) cannot be measured.

• Most of the value you get from your telephone comes from being able to dial your 50 most frequently called numbers; the rest of the network does not matter that much.

• But the 50 people you know, know 50 other people, etc. So adding to the network encourages others to join.

Metcalfe’s Law (Cont’d)

• This kind of economy of network scale explains by well-established standards (like Windows) is hard to beat.

• But not all additions make a network more valuable. Some members of the network subtract from the value (at least from one’s perspective).

• For example,

– telemarketers in the telephone network, or – spammers in the Internet, etc.

Wirth’s Law

• In 1995, Niklaus Wirth, inventor of the Pascal computer language, was attributed to this law which states that software is slowing faster than hardware is accelerating.

• He credits the statement to Martin Reiser (formerly from IBM Research).

• This law has also been expressed in Bibical terms: “Groves giveth, and Gates taketh away.”

• Intel’s Andy Grove works to improve hardware speed. Microsoft’s Bill Gates complicates software calculations. User gets hardly any gains.

Other Interesting “Laws”

• Nielson's Law claims Internet bandwidth grows by 50% each year.

• Clarke’s First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible (s)he is almost certainly right. When (s)he states that something is impossible, (s)he is very probably wrong.

• Brook’s Law: Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.

• 90-90 Rule: The first 90% of a software code accounts for the first 90% of the development time. The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time.

Some References for Today’s Slides

• http://www.inq7.net/inf/2004/jul/09/inf_5-1.htm• http://www.cellular.co.za/news_2004/june/062404-china-USE.htm• http://www.techweb.com/wire/26802151• http://www.internetworldstats.com• http://www.dmeurope.com/default.asp?ArticleID=4179• http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2004/03/08/

daily30.html• http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/56F0009XIE/

56F0009XIE.pdf• http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~pnorris/acrobat/digitalch2.pdf• http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm• http://www.101science.com/transistor.htm• http://www.lucent.com/minds/transistor/