tree & vine expo...california statewide grape crush ciatti. regional market -harvest-later than...
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STATE OF THE WINEGRAPE INDUSTRYInformation provided by:
Steve Dorfman
TREE & VINE EXPONOVEMBER 12, 2019
24 DEDICATED BROKERS IN 9 COUNTRIES
GLOBALLY BASED TO HELP BUILD YOUR BUSINESS WORLDWIDE
INTRODUCTION
- CIATTI CO 9 REGIONAL OFFICES WORLDWIDE
- WINE, GRAPES, & CONCENTRATE, ETC
- PROCESSING AND STORAGE
- GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
- WORLD APPROACH – LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
CIATTI
2
3
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ton
s in
Mill
ion
s
Winegrape Other Crush
4.15
Est.
CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE GRAPE CRUSH
CIATTI
REGIONAL
MARKET
- HARVEST- LATER THAN RECENT YEARS- MILD WEATHER- SOME MILDEW PRESSURE
- MARKET- VERY QUIET- BIG WINERIES NOT BUYING
EXTRA GRAPES
SOUTHERN INTERIOR
1,800,000
1,850,000
1,900,000
1,950,000
2,000,000
2,050,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
1,975,000
CIATTI
- HARVEST- LATER THAN RECENT YEARS- MILD GROWING SEASON - NOT AS COMPACTED AS
RECENT YEARS
- MARKET- NO SPOT BUYERS- NO “CLEAN UP” BUYERS- A FEW SMALL WINERIES BOUGHT
SPECIFIC VARIETIES- MORE REMOVALS
NORTHERN INTERIOR
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019EST.
1,080,000
CIATTI
- HARVEST- LATER THAN NORMAL HARVEST- EXTENDED HARVEST HELPED MATURITY- YIELDS VARIED, NEW VS. OLD VINES - NO CLEAN UP ACTIVITY- FINISHED LATE BUT GOOD
- MARKET- SLOW MARKET - CA PRICING- MARKET SUSCEPTIBLE WHEN
OVER SUPPLY (PASO ROBLES)- TOO MUCH CAB PLANTED? - FRUIT UNPICKED
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
565,000
CIATTI
CENTRAL COAST
- HARVEST- BUYING ACTIVITY QUIET- LATE SEASON “CHEAP” BUYERS- CROP FEELS “NORMAL”- FIRE CHALLENGE
- MARKET- EARLY CAB BUYERS- SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY - CAPACITY ISSUE- WINERIES BECOMING SELLERS- WINERY PRESSURE ON QUALITY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
520,000
CIATTI
NORTH COAST
KEY
VARIETIES
- GRAPES- YIELDS LOOKS AVG - SOME MILDEW ISSUES- INTERIOR ALL GOT PICKED- AGING VINES
- BULK WINE - BACK UP OF INVENTORY- MOSTLY COASTAL (75%)- PRICE DROPPED, SOME
COASTAL NOW CA PRICE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
670,000
CIATTI
CHARDONNAY
- GRAPES- YIELDS WERE SPOTTY- NO ADDITIONAL ACRES- SOME LOW PRICE ACTIVITY
- BULK WINE - MAY BE THE MOST BALANCED- ALMOST ALL CA APP - MARKET SLOWS AFTER FEB
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
265,000
PINOT GRIGIO
- GRAPES- MOSTLY CONTRACTED- YIELDS AVERAGE- NEW PLANTINGS/GRAFTINGS
PRODUCING
- BULK WINE - BALANCED INVENTORIES IN
TERMS OF REGION CA/COAST- SHOULD WORK THROUGH
SLIGHT VOLUME ISSUES
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
115,000
CIATTI
SAUVIGNON BLANC
- GRAPES- RECORD CROP AGAIN?- ACREAGE MATURES- NEW PLANTINGS PRODUCING- MARKET HIT WALL- SOME GRAPES WILL HANG
- BULK WINE - LARGEST INVENTORY- PRICE DROP CONTINUES, NAPA
LOWER PRICE ACTION- MAJORITY COASTAL
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019EST.
675,000
CIATTI
CABERNET SAUVIGNON
- GRAPES- QUIET MARKET- ACREAGE IN BALANCE?
- BULK WINE - SLOW DEMAND- DOESN’T FEEL AS BACKED UP- MOSTLY COASTAL 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
250,000
CIATTI
MERLOT
- GRAPES- CENTRAL COAST SEEMS BIGGER
THAN NORTH COAST- BIG DEMAND DROP ON COAST- LATE SEASON CHEAP BUYS
- BULK WINE - INVENTORY ISSUES- LOWER PRICE ACTIVITY- MOSTLY COASTAL
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019EST.
290,000
CIATTI
PINOT NOIR
- GRAPES- YIELDS DOWN- MARKET QUIET- HAND LABOR COSTS HIGH - REMOVALS CONTINUE
- BULK WINE - SLOW MOVEMENT - MOST IS LODI APPELLATION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EST.
350,000
CIATTI
ZINFANDEL
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
JAN. 2015 JAN. 2016 JAN. 2017 JAN. 2018 JAN. 2019 NOV. 2019
BU
LK G
ALL
ON
S A
VA
ILA
BLE
CABERNET SAUVIGNON CHARDONNAY MERLOT PINOT NOIR ZINFANDELCIATTI
CALIFORNIA BULK WINE INVENTORY
WINE
SALES
TOTAL CA WINE (-2%) (-2.9M CASES)(LAST 6 MONTHS)
- DOMESTIC (-0%) (-0.2M CASES)
- EXPORTS (-28%) (-2.3M CASES)
- IMPORTS (6 months)
- CASEGOODS (+5%) (+2.6M/CASES)
- BULK (-7%) (-0.9M/CASES)
TOTAL US Market (YTD)
- IMPORT & DOMESTIC (+1%) (+ 1.7M/CASES)
Source: Gomberg-Frederickson
USA SHIPMENTS – 6 months ending June 2019
CIATTI
2019 FIRST HALF - CA TABLE WINE VOLUME
Retail Price/750ml Eqv.
Price Segment Volume Change Volume Share
Under $4 – 5LUnder $4 - other
Economy - 2.8%- 6.8%
9.9%9.7%
$4 - $7 – 1.5L$4-$7 - other
Popular - 6.3%- 5.5%
15.3%13.7%
$4 - $7 – 3L Premium Box + 11.4% 7.4%
$7 - $9 Popular Plus - 3.2% 10.2%
$9 - $12 Premium + 1.8% 18.9%
$12 - $15 Premium Plus + 7.7% 7.6%
$15 - $20 Super Premium +9.6% 4.7%
Over $20 Luxury + 7.2% 2.5%
CIATTISource: Gomberg-Frederickson
TYPE % SHARE % CHANGE
BEER 47.7% -1.0%
SPIRITS 34.7% +2.4%
WINE 17.6% -1.9%
Source: Gomberg-Frederickson
BEVERAGE ALCOHOL TRENDS (12 MONTHS TO JUNE 2019)
CIATTI
VARIETAL % SHARE
CHARDONNAY 18.6%
CABERNET 14.6%
RED BLENDS 10.6%
PINOT GRIGIO 9.7%
MERLOT 6.4%
MOSCATO 6.2%
PINOT NOIR 5.2%
SAUVIGNON BLANC 5.1%
OFF PREMISE VOLUME BY VARIETAL
CIATTISource: Nielsen
CALIFORNIA MARKET SUMMARY
- OVERALL AN IDEAL SEASON IF GRAPES WERE CONTRACTED
- VERY CONSISTENT ALL YEAR – MARKET, WEATHER, TIMING
- SPOT GRAPE MARKET ACTIVITY NONEXISTENT
- BULK WINE MARKET CONTINUED TO SOFTEN; INCREASED INVENTORIES
- OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW BRANDS/WINE BASED PRODUCTS
CIATTI
CIATTI REPORTS / PUBLICATIONS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND ATTENTION
- CALIFORNIA MARKET REPORT
- GLOBAL MARKET REPORT
- WWW.CIATTI.COM
STEVE DORFMAN
707.321.3843