Transportation and Urban Form: Energy Use and Climate Change

Considerations

Visions of Transportation and Urban Form in the

Greater Toronto Area

June 13, 2005

Peter Reilly-Roe - Office of Energy Efficiency

Natural Resources Canada

Transportation and Sustainability in Urban Areas

Challenge: Provide access to jobs and services while increasing economic welfare and enhancing attractiveness of the city

Five main action areas Provide/maintain transport infrastructure Provide greenspace, protect

environmentally sensitive areas Improve air quality Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Relieve congestion

Integrated transport and land use planning can help

Integrated Transportation and Land-Use Planning Challenges

Three levels of government share the responsibility for transportation

Transportation is a derived demand and a land-use affected by the growth of our economy

There is an assumption that each group of users is entitled to a certain level of mobility and choice

People are choosing: Car ownership is at the level of 550

vehicles/1000 Canadians More and bigger housing to suburbs and

satellites Employment in distributed locations

How to balance transportation system efficiency, within and between modes while maintaining city competitiveness?

The Transportation and Land-Use Connection

Transportation is a land use. Land use planning will

influence future travel demand and automobile dependency.

Smart Growth/New Community Design: promotes the integration of

transportation and land use decisions and aims to maintain a level of mobility for a community.

Ontario’s Places to Grow Act

Canadian Urban Land Use Survey

(CUrLUS)

196619711976198119862000

Water

Residential

Commercial/Industrial

Quarries/Dump

Urban Recreational

Transitional

Forest

Agricultural

Grass/Herbaceous

Bare Rock/Sand

Emergent Wetland

Woody Wetland

Transportation

Urban Open Land

GTA Urban Growth Pattern 1966-2000

30

Forecast of On-Road Vehicle Kilometres Travelled

0

100

200

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400

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600

700

800

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

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2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

Bil

lio

ns

Kilo

met

res

Growth in Vehicle Travel

The Transportation Planning Challenge

Some actions are helping significantly

Mobile Source Emission Forecast

32

On Road NOx Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1985

1988

1991

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2021

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2030

Th

ou

san

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To

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es

/Ye

ar

Mobile Source Emission Forecast

32

On Road PM2.5 Emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1985

1988

1991

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es/Y

ear

Transportation Energy Use

The transportation sector accounts for 34% of Canada’s GHG emissions from secondary energy use and has been a major contributor to smog in urban areas

Energy efficiency improvements in freight and passenger travel limited growth in transportation energy use to 23% between 1990 and 2002, without these improvements, transportation energy use would have increase by 32% over the same period

The demand for transportation services has outstripped our efforts to improve energy efficiency

Within the context of climate change, efficiency is a subset of energy consumption. The three determinants of consumption are energy technologies, fuels and activity

Factors Affecting Fuel Use in Cities

Technology

vehicle efficiency and type of fuel

Economics/Demographics Prices and Incomes

Population and age structure

InfrastructureProvision for different modes and levels of service

Urban FormDensity, residential centrality

Urban Transportation Fuel Use

Newman and Kenworthy, 1999

Factors Affecting GHG Emissions from Automobile Use

Socio-economic variables: # of vehicles in the household, # of people per household, # of adults, household employment income.

Locational Variables: Distance to the employment areas, land use mix, local transit service.

Neighbourhood variables: Housing density moderately decreases vehicle ownership and increases transit ridership, road layout and type, services located in the neighbourhood, infrastructure for non-motorized transport.

Instruments and Areas of Influence

Federal activities Policies, programs, education and

awareness, voluntary agreements, fiscal measures, technology and innovation and leading by example.

Important Municipal Areas of Influence Planning and zoning: transit orientated

development, pedestrian friendly development, infill/brownfield development, mixed-use high density developments.

Implementation of growth boundaries Parking pricing and policy, road

pricing/congestion charging.

Federal Activities

New Deal for Cities ($5 billion over 5 years) and communities as well as the additional support for public transit ($800 million over 2 years).

Infrastructure Canada programs, Canada Strategic Infrastructure Fund(CSIF), Municipal Rural Infrastructure Fund(MRIF), Border Infrastructure Fund (BIF).

FCM-Green Municipal Funds (renewed for $300 million). Transport Canada’s: Freight Efficiency and Technology Initiative

(FETI), Freight Efficiency Program (FEP), Freight Incentive Program (FIP), Urban Transportation Showcase Program (UTSP), Moving on Sustainable Transportation (MOST), Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

MOU between the Government of Canada and the Auto Industry on Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2010.

Project Green (Partnership Fund, Climate Fund, One Tonne Challenge).

Clean Vehicle and Fuel Regulations (Tier II) Knowledge Base: R&D, surveys, workshops, model development, etc.

Some of NRCan’s Transportation Programs

Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: voluntary agreement

Personal Vehicles: Energuide label, education and awareness campaigns (Anti-Idling, Tire Smart)

Commercial Fleets: information, workshops, technical demonstrations and training programs on fuel-efficient practices for fleet vehicles.

Alternative transportation fuels development and use of alternative and future fuels in Canada, through reports, brochures and public events. Ethanol Expansion, Future Fuels Initiative, Canadian Transportation Fuel Cell Alliance (CTFCA), Biodiesel Initiative

Comparison of Standards Standardized by Fuel Consumption & North American Test Cycle

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

L/1

00

km

United States

California

Canada with 25% target

Australia

China

European Union

JapanACTUAL FORECAST

*Adapted from a chart by Feng An and Amanda Sauer

Reducing New Vehicle Fuel Consumption and GHG Emissions

Changing Fuels: Lifecycle analysis

2010 - Lifecycle CO2eq Emissions

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

RFG Hybrid RFG CNG Diesel Diesel Hybrid H2 FC SMR E10 (W0/G100)Vehicles

Per

cen

tag

e o

f C

O2e

q E

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Ass

oci

ated

Wit

h E

ach

Sta

ge

Materials in vehicles

Vehicle assembly andtransport

Emissions displacedby co-products

CH4 and CO2 leaksand flares

Land use changes andcultivation

Feedstock andfertilizer production

Feedstock transport

Fuel production

Fuel storage anddistribution

Fuel dispensing

C in end-use fuel fromCO2 in air

Vehicle operation

Concluding Remarks

The Federal government has a catalytic role to: provide tools and resources (data

collection, monitoring and research); lead by example in order to foster

informed decision making by promoting the integration of the best available data. (including ensuring that land-use and transportation are considered as inter-related/co-dependant elements);

work in partnership with provinces, municipalities and stakeholders;

Ensure effective public participation and communication to raise awareness and acceptance of policies and initiatives.