transport sector in brazil

Transport Sector in Brazil

New Energy Indicators for Transport:The Way ForwardParis - January 28 and 29, 2008

Carlos Feu Alvim – Economy & Energy – e&e

Transport Sector andGHG Emissions in Brazil

Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMotorcycles Sales and Fleet

Transport Sector in Brazil :Transport in Brazil and GHG Emissions

Transport is responsible for 24% of global GHG emissions from fossil fuelsTransport accounts for 42% of carbon emissions from energy use from energy use In 1994 only 23% of CO2 emissions were due to energy activities according to the first Brazilian GHG InventoryEmissions due to fossil energy use is not yet predominant in Brazil but its share is increasing

Transport Sector in Brazil GHG Emissions from Energy Uses

20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Transport

Industrial

0%5%

10%15%20%

1970 1980 1990 2000

Energy Sector Residential Sector Commercial and Public

Agriculture Transport Industrial Sector

Electric Generation Others

Electricity

Transport Sector in Brazil :New Vehicles Market by Mode – 2007

Thousand Vehicles/Year

Produced Exported Imported Registered

National Registered

Stock Changes

Passenger cars 2389 586 176 1799 180

Light commercials

408 144 88 277 75

Trucks 137 41 3.3 95 4

Buses 39 15 0.046 23 1

Total 2973 787 268 2195 259

Transport Sector in Brazil Sales (New Car Registration) by Mode

1500

2000

2500 V

ehic

les

/ Yea

r Cars

0

500

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usan

d V

e

Cars Light Commercials Trucks Buses

Light Commercials

Transport Sector in Brazil New Car Registration – Heavy Vehicles

60

80

100

120V

ehic

les

/ Yea

r Trucks

0

20

40

60

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Tho

usan

d V

e

Trucks Buses

Buses

Transport Sector in Brazil :Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars – Year 2007 Thousand Vehicles/Year

TOTAL 2973 Light vehicles 2797 Passenger cars 2389 Light commercials GVW < 3.5 ton 408 Trucks 137 Semi-light GVW > 3.5 t < 6 t 6 Semi-light GVW > 3.5 t < 6 t 6 Light GVW > 6 t < 10 t 27 Medium GVW > 10 t < 15 t 14 Semi-heavy GVW > 15 t 43 Heavy GVW > 15 t 47 GCW> 45 t 0 Buses(Chassis) 39 Coach 7 City bus 31 GVW (gross vehicle weight) GCW (Gross Combined Weight )

Transport Sector in Brazil :Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars – Year 2007 and 1000 cc Share in Sales

Thousand Vehicles/Year

1000 cc 1067 54%

Car Sales in 2007

Share 1000 cc Engines in Registration of New Cars

70

80

1000 cc 1067 54%

<1000 cc >= 2000 cc 882 45%

>2000 cc 27 1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005

Per

cent

age

Transport Sector in Brazil :Domestic Fuel Prices

150

200

25000

6)/b

oe

0

50

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US

$(20

0

Imported Oil Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Natural Gas

Transport Sector in Brazil :Changes Affecting Fuel Consumption and Vehicles Carbon Emissions

After First Oil Price Shock (1973)Change in domestic relative price gasoline/diesel Anhydrous alcohol in gasoline mixture

After Second Oil Price Shock (1979)Pure Alcohol VehiclesPure Alcohol VehiclesSale of Pure Alcohol Vehicles almost zero

After Third Oil Price Shock and GHG Increased ConcernsFlex Fuel (gasoline/alcohol)Compressed Natural GasBiodiesel


Transport Sector and GHG EmissionsNew Cars Sales by ModeEnergy Prices and Vehicles MarketNew Car Sales by FuelNew Car Sales by FuelVehicle Fleet by Mode and FuelUse of Natural Gas and BiodieselGHG Emissions in TransportMottos Sales and Fleet

Transport Sector in Brazil :Share of New Trucks Registration by Fuel

60%

80%

100%

GasolineDiesel

Alcohol

0%

20%

40%

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Diesel Gasolina Álcool

Transport Sector in Brazil :Share of New Cars Registration by Fuel

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%AlcoholGasoline Flex

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Flex

Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transport Fleet – Different Sources

Year 2006 Denatran e&e AnfaveaThousandVehicles

ThousandVehicles

% Denatran

ThousandVehicles

% Denatran

Passenger cars 27000 22974 85% 19212 71%Passenger cars 27000 22974 85% 19212 71%

Light commercials

4485 3594 80% 3061 68%

Trucks 2004 1254 63% 1411 70%

Buses 344 281 82% 386 112%

Total 33833 28103 83% 24070 71%

Transport Sector in Brazil :Comments about Different Fleet Sources

Denatran – National Road Traffic Department (Official Data) – Inter-states vehicles changes are not well computedare not well computedAnfavea – National Association of Automotive Industry - Fleet based on annual vehicle registration and calculated annual scrapping,e&e – Same methodology but different scrapping rates

Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transport Fleet

20

25

30

35

es (

Mill

ion)

20%

25%

30%

35%

row

th R

ate

0

5

10

15

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Veh

icle

s

0%

5%

10%

15%

Ann

ual G

ro

Total Fleet Annual Growth Rate

Fleet

Annual Growth Rate

Transport Sector in Brazil Car Fleet Evolution by Fuel

15

20

25

30

of V

ehic

les

0

5

10

15

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Mill

ions

o

Diesel Gasoline Alcohol Flex

Transport Sector in Brazil :Average Age of Cars Fleet

10

12

14

16

18

20in

Yea

rs Gasoline Vehicles

Alcohol Vehicles

Average

0

2

4

6

8

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Age

in

Gasoline Alcohol Flex Average

Flex Vehicles

Transport Sector in Brazil :Use of Compressed Natural Gas in Vehicles

All the present fleet is of converted cars (dual fuel) using gasoline/NG or Alcohol/NGEstimated fleet 1.4 million car (light vehicles)Average consumption

220 million m3/month220 million m3/month5,1 Nm3/day

Brazilian NGV fleet of Brazilian almost equal to Argentinean in 2007Prices: Gasoline 0.66 US$/l, Alcohol 0.99 US$/lNGV 0,66/m3 40% Gasoline, 39% Alcohol (Energy Relative Price) Data Source: NGV Group September 2007

Transport Sector in Brazil :Biodiesel

National Target: 5% renewable fuel mixed with diesel for next years (present target 2%)

Sterification of vegetable oilH-bio produced in hydro-treating units in existing oil H-bio produced in hydro-treating units in existing oil refineries

Brazilian Biodiesel Production (in million of boe / year )

2005 0.005 2006 0.42007 2.5 (1.3% of diesel consumption)

Transport Sector in Brazil :Road Transportation Fuel Consumption

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

nerg

y

Natural Gas

Hydrated Alcohol

Anhydrous Alcohol

Gasoline

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Fin

al E

ne

Diesel Oil Gasoline Anhydrous Alcohol

Hydrated Alcohol Natural Gas

Diesel Oil

Transport Sector in Brazil :Carbon Emissions Avoided

Emissions in Transport: Effective and Avoided

30

35

40

45

50

of C

arbo

nSubstit. HydratedAlcoholSubstit. AnhydrousAlcoholSubstitutionNG/GasolineSubstitutionDiesel/GasolineAVIATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Tg

or m

illio

n t o

f Diesel/GasolineAVIATIONKEROSENENATURAL GAS

GASOLINE

DIESEL OIL

MINERAL COAL

FUEL OIL

Transport Sector in Brazil :Motorcycles and Cars Sales

1,5

2

2,5

otoc

yles

/yea

r

Cars

0

0,5

1

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

mill

ion

mot

o

Motocycles Cars

Motocycles

Transport Sector in Brazil :Motorcycles and Motorcycles/Cars Fleets

6

7

8

9

10

ehic

les

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

/car

s

mottos fleet

0

1

2

3

4

5

2003 2003,5 2004 2004,5 2005 2005,5 2006

Mill

ion

Veh

i

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

mot

tos/

ca

mottos mottos/cars

mottos/cars fleet

Transport Sector in BrasilMotorcycles and Traffic

In Brazil motorcycles are still considered as a marginal vehicleThe motorcycles fleet is now 1/3 of cars fleetAbout 380 thousand About 380 thousand registered accidents with victims (36 thousand deaths) in 2005Recently the Sao Paulo’s administration established some special corridor for motorcycles


ENDhttp://ecen.com

Transport Sector in Brazil :Transport Fuel Consumption

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%F

inal

Ene

rgy

Jet Fuel

Natural GasHydrated Alcohol

Anhydrous Alcohol

Gasoline

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

F

Fuel oil Electricity CoalDiesel Oil Gasoline Anhydrous AlcoholHydrated Alcohol Natural Gas Jet Fuel

Diesel Oil

Bunker Fuel

transport sector in brazil

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