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  • Transport Freight and Logistics Sector Demographics

    Transport for New South Wales

    Final Report

    January 2015

  • Transport for New South Wales Transport, Freight and Logistics Sector Demographics

    January 2015

    Disclaimer Inherent Limitations

    This report has been prepared as outlined in the Scope Section. The services provided in connection with this engagement comprise an advisory engagement which is not subject to Australian Auditing Standards or Australian Standards on Review or Assurance Engagements, and consequently no opinions or conclusions intended to convey assurance have been expressed.

    No warranty of completeness, accuracy or reliability is given in relation to the statements and representations made by, and the information and documentation provided by Transport for New South Wales personnel and stakeholders consulted as part of the process.

    KPMG have indicated within this report the sources of the information provided. We have not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the report.

    KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this report, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the report has been issued in final form.

    The findings in this report have been formed on the above basis.

    Third Party Reliance

    This report is solely for the purpose set out in the Scope Section and for Transport for New South Waless information, and is not to be used for any other purpose or distributed to any other party without KPMGs prior written consent.

    This report has been prepared at the request of Transport for New South Wales in accordance with the terms of the Prequalification Scheme: Performance and Services Standard Form of Agreement as agreed on 16 April 2014. Other than our responsibility to Transport for New South Wales, neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this report. Any reliance placed is that partys sole responsibility.

    2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity"

    are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

  • Transport for New South Wales Transport, Freight and Logistics Sector Demographics

    January 2015

    Table of contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................................................2 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................................8

    1.1. Project background.............................................................................................................................................8 1.2. Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................9 1.3. The NSW Freight and Ports Strategy...............................................................................................................10 1.4. Action 3D Support the growth of the transport and logistics workforce.........................................................11 1.5. The importance of skilled workers ....................................................................................................................11 1.6. Definitional challenges......................................................................................................................................11 1.7. Structure of this report ......................................................................................................................................12

    2. Economic and industry context ...........................................................................................................................13 2.1. Australian economy overview...........................................................................................................................13 2.2. NSW economy overview...................................................................................................................................14 2.3. Transport, Freight and Logistics industry overview ..........................................................................................15 2.4. Drivers of change..............................................................................................................................................16 2.5. Workforce challenges for the TFL industry.......................................................................................................17

    3. Analysis and findings............................................................................................................................................18 3.1. What are skills shortages? ...............................................................................................................................18 3.2. Selecting occupations.......................................................................................................................................18 3.3. Historical trends in selected occupations .........................................................................................................19 3.4. Quantitative modelling of skills deficits .............................................................................................................25 3.5. Findings from stakeholder consultations ..........................................................................................................27 3.6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................30

    4. Responding to skills shortages ...........................................................................................................................32 4.1. Potential measures ...........................................................................................................................................32 4.2. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................36

    5. Conclusion..............................................................................................................................................................37 5.1. Summary of findings.........................................................................................................................................37

    A. TFL ANZSCO occupation categories ...............................................................................................................38 B. Demand-supply imbalance analysis for all TFL occupations........................................................................40 C. Detailed modelling methodology......................................................................................................................47

    Modelling background .................................................................................................................................................47 Labour Demand...........................................................................................................................................................47 Labour Supply .............................................................................................................................................................48 Supply Demand Imbalance Index ...............................................................................................................................49

    D. Consultation questions .....................................................................................................................................51

    2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity"

    are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

    i

  • Transport for New South Wales Transport, Freight and Logistics Sector Demographics

    January 2015

    Executive summary KPMG was engaged by Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW) to provide an analysis of the transport, freight and logistics (TFL) industry sector demographics, with a focus on specific occupations and an understanding of the prevalence of skills shortages in each. Through this project TfNSW has sought to develop a more objective, evidence-based approach to understanding skills shortages. This project provides TfNSW with: a unified framework for assessing skills gaps and shortages in key occupations for the TFL industry, reflecting

    discussions regarding skills categories/occupations so that project outputs are appropriate a better understanding of why particular skills shortages exist and where they are most acute initial guidance on where government and industry might work together to alleviate the gaps and shortages.

    This report provides TfNSW with a detailed analysis of current and forecast skills gaps and shortages within

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